Our baseline scenario over Q4 is for both AUD and GBP to trend higher against the US dollar, with our year-end forecast at 0.57. But short-term risks look to be to the downside, likely probing 0.5350/60 as the aussie underperforms the G10 on US election uncertainty and the RBA’s increasingly dovish stance, setting up fresh monetary easing on November 3.”
“The latest headlines on UK-EU trade negotiations are more encouraging, with hopes rising that an agreement will be reached to provide UK exporters greater access than the no-deal scenario.
However, downside should be limited during November by the BoE’s own easing steps, with potential for expanded bond purchases.”
“In the US election, a Democratic ‘Blue Wave’ win would most likely support AUD/GBP as equities rally on the prospect of looser fiscal policy.”


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