gyaan aur anubhav har jagah hai jahaan aapake vyavasaay ke vyaapaar mein sabase achchha paisa kamaate hue is vyavasaay mein takaneekee gyaan aur is naukaree mein saphalata praapt karate hain aur sabase achchha kamaate hain aur is kaam mein sabase achchha laabh praapt karate hain
Hi guys,
I have been taking days off markets this few days and throughly review my mistake.
1)trade too large for rescue operation to carry out, but still going on to rescue
I generally aim for at least 2 % per trade, and most of the trade I entered full position, thinking my entry picking skill is good, even though my hit rate on 1:1 r/r is above 50% this method is too rigid as it left no room for manuever. I think I am a little bit overestimated myself.
2)Holding on to rescue regardless of the circumstances
After my rescue have been implemented, there are bunch of important news that week, including tension between north korea-us, fed speech, german election...
I am a fool to allow my rescue position to stay during this period which the result from those news is unpredictable and volatility can be high.
Besides many times 7k reverse against my position, I should have cut all the rescue as momentum from 7k is strong and can cause deep losses to book, before the trend die down.
3)Do not live in the market
I think I am a trader just because I open up my computer and trade, after switching off the trading console, I can totally forget about the market.
I have no idea about the general economic condition for each currency, which currency is the best to buy due to divergence in monetary policies or economic condition, what goal is the monetary policy targeting, whether it is inflation, unemployment, growth, etc, did not monitor the general trend of economic indicator like housing, inflation, gdp....
I could have caught the risk aversion trend that last for a few hours after some officer in north korea gave out some prowar speech
Because I was not monitoring any live feed, I was not able to capitalize the opportunity.
These are the 3 fatal mistakes that I made, initially I was thinking to start live once I double this demo account, well if u guys are interested to know, the account is busted now, because I did nothing since the last rescue just to see whether price will come back, this has given me an important lesson.
Ok, after reviewing all my mistakes I have revised some of my mo. After some deep thinking, I think there are 3MM that are viable I can use to tackle the market.
Cut and flip, Cut and reenter, Rescue.
I will only enter full position when trend is strong, 7k is in sync, this is to capitalize on the strong momentum, as this leave no room for rescue, if price reverse against me, I will either flip or re-enter depending on how 7k perform.
What I want to discuss with you guys today is rescue.
For not so sure or top and bottom picking trade, I will now enter a position which include 3 layer of S/R which has 2 layer of rescue.
I will only take trade set up that has at least 20 pips. which mean my overall position including rescue, will need me to make 20 pips to make 2 percent. I think this is acceptable house edge that I can forgone.
This is because of the random market theory, I only assume that I have 50% edge. Under 1:1 R/R if one randomly enter a positon he will most likely have equal win/ loss ratio, it is unlikely to have long losing or winning streak.
for 20 pips when I lose I will lose 21pips and gain 19 pips when I win after taking into account the spread, this mean I will need 52.5% to just to breakeven, and the required breakeven rate go higher if my profit target keep going down, this is something I want to stress again, and the reason why I dont use a large position to rescue just for 5-10 pips, even though the smaller tp makes it easier to rescue, but if the random market theory take hold, I will most likely lose on 50% of my trade. It means I am unable to reach the required win rate to breakeven resulted from the larger position.
sometimes, too small of a rescue is not effective to hit profit target, too large of a rescue is too expensive after taking into account the cost, while the chance of suceed is unknown.
So currently I am using 1 1 1 resuce, will use a larger rescue if condition allow, but my overall positon always require me to make 20 pips to reach my profit target, this way my leverage is contained.
what are some of you guys MO? How do u determine rescue position, arbitrary?