Oil

[hodhod2000]

The trading range for today is expected among the major support at 84.50 and the major resistance at 89.00.
The short-trend trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 78.00, targeting 104.65 and 110.55.

[turabawan8]

Pivot point (level of invalidation): 88.25

Our preference: Short positions with target at 88.2 to 85.7 and 84.4 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 88.25 we expect further upside with 89.9 and 91.25 of the target.

Technical Comments: as long as 88.25 resistance is not exceeded, the risk of rupture 85.7 remains high.

[raihan8212]

Crude oil futures edged up from the lowest level since July during European morning hours on Wednesday, however gains were capped after a string of weak manufacturing data out of the euro zone reinforced concerns over the outlook for global growth.

Oil traders were focusing on closely-watched weekly supply data on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products from the U.S. Energy Information Administration later in the day.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD86.89 a barrel during European morning trade, easing up 0.25%.

New York-traded oil prices traded in a range of USD87.47 a barrel, the daily high and a session low of USD86.27 a barrel. New York-traded oil prices fell to USD85.80 on Tuesday, the weakest level since July 13.

Oil prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions, as increasing concerns over the outlook for global economic growth and the impact on future oil demand prospects dampened the appeal of the commodity.

Markit said that its flash euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell 45.3 in October from a final reading of 46.1 in September. Analysts had expected the index to ease up to 46.6 in October.

Germany’s flash manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7 in October, from a final reading of 47.4 in September, disappointing expectations for an improvement to 48.0.

Meanwhile, a report by German research institute Ifo showed that its business climate index fell to100.0 in October, the lowest level since March 2010, from a reading of 101.4 in September.

Oil futures remained supported after a report showed that China's HSBC manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1 in October, compared with a final reading of 47.9 in September.

China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

Oil traders looked ahead to weekly data from the U.S. government on oil supplies later in the day to gauge the strength of demand from the world’s largest oil consumer.

The report was expected to show that U.S. crude oil stockpiles increased by 1.9 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories were forecast to rise by 0.7 million barrels.

After markets closed Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said that U.S. crude inventories rose by a modest 0.31 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks increased 0.18 million barrels.

The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand.

Market participants also awaited the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy-setting meeting later in the day, after the central bank announced its third round of quantitative easing last month.

Elsewhere, oil traders continued to focus on tensions between Syria and Turkey and the possibility that Iran could support Syria in such a dispute.

Violence also spilled over to neighboring Lebanon in recent days, fuelling concerns over a region-wide conflict.

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa were responsible for 36% of global oil production and held 52% of proved reserves in 2011.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for December delivery added 0.6% to trade at USD108.92 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD22.03 a barrel.

London-traded Brent prices have been well-supported in recent sessions, as a combination of lingering concerns over a disruption to supplies from the Middle East and worries over declining production in the North Sea-region have been boosting prices.

---------- Post added at 09:45 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:37 PM ----------

Crude oil futures fell to the lowest level since July during U.S. morning hours on Wednesday, adding to losses after a U.S. government report showed oil supplies rose more-than-expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD85.63 a barrel during U.S. morning trade, tumbling 1.2%.

New York-traded oil prices fell by as much as 1.4% earlier in the day to trade at a session low USD85.58 a barrel, the weakest level since July 12.

Prices traded at USD86.45 a barrel prior to the release of the EIA data.

The U.S. EIA said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.9 million barrels in the week ended October 19, compared to expectations for a 1.9 million barrel increase.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 375.1 million barrels as of last week.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels, compared to expectations for a gain of 0.67 million barrels.

Oil traders shrugged off a report showing U.S. new home sales rose more-than-expected in September, hitting the highest level since April 2010.

The U.S. is the world�s biggest oil consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand.

New York-traded oil prices were weaker ahead of the supply report after a string of downbeat manufacturing data out of the euro zone reinforced concerns over the outlook for global growth.

Markit said that its flash euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers� index fell 45.3 in October from a final reading of 46.1 in September. Analysts had expected the index to ease up to 46.6 in October.

Germany�s flash manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7 in October, from a final reading of 47.4 in September, disappointing expectations for an improvement to 48.0.

Meanwhile, a report by German research institute Ifo showed that its business climate index fell to100.0 in October, the lowest level since March 2010, from a reading of 101.4 in September.

Oil futures remained supported after a report showed that China's HSBC manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1 in October, compared with a final reading of 47.9 in September.

China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

Market participants also awaited the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy-setting meeting later in the day, after the central bank announced its third round of quantitative easing last month.

Elsewhere, oil traders continued to focus on tensions between Syria and Turkey and the possibility that Iran could support Syria in such a dispute.

Violence also spilled over to neighboring Lebanon in recent days, fuelling concerns over a region-wide conflict.

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa were responsible for 36% of global oil production and held 52% of proved reserves in 2011.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for December delivery fell 0.55% to trade at USD107.66 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD22.03 a barrel.

London-traded Brent prices have been well-supported in recent sessions, as a combination of lingering concerns over a disruption to supplies from the Middle East and worries over declining production in the North Sea-region have been boosting prices.

[ahmed fakhry]

Oil: December futures price of WTI dropped to $85.76 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Oil investors were focused on the weak global economy performances and its impact on oil demand thus silently reacted on probability of Iran's threat, which may halt exports of oil, if the West countries will apply more sanctions against the country.

[ashaab]

The short term trend of the Oil is to the upside. Intraday trading range of the Oil is expected among key support at 84.50 and key resistance at 89.00. Based upon my chart analysis, I prefer to selling the Oil around 87.70 with targets 96.25 then 85.20 and stoploss with four hour candle closing above 89.00.

[Bieela_cute]

The 10/15 low is viewed as the latest pivot so respect potential for a return to 9400 and perhaps the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 10040 at 9553. However, new longs at the top of the range (current level) aren’t wise given current range conditions. I don’t see a trade here.” The 10/15 gave way today and crude is at the bottom of the range (for October). Those bent on trading crude can use Monday’s high as a level to hold a bearish bias against for a break to lower levels but crude’s false break tendencies make me gun shy.

Commodity Trading Strategy Implications:

LEVELS: 8550 8684 8795 8983 9064 9125

[amni570]

Buy OIL at 86.30 SL 85.80 TP 87.00

[Bieela_cute]

Crude oil futures plunged on Tuesday as investors dumped the commodity due to global growth fears.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD86.63 a barrel during U.S. morning trade falling 2.28%.

Oil’s losses accelerated after stocks on Wall Street opened with heavy losses on Tuesday, pressured by disappointing corporate earnings results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were both down more than 1% shortly after the open.

U.S. stocks and crude oil have the tendency to trade in tandem on the belief that share prices act as a proxy for economic sentiment and are a bellwether for oil demand.

Oil prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions, as increasing concerns over the outlook for global economic growth and the impact on future oil demand prospects dampened the appeal of the commodity.

Market sentiment was hit as a down****e of Catalonia and four other Spanish regions by ratings agency Moody’s added to uncertainty over when Madrid may formally request a bailout.

Market players have been anticipating for the past month that the Spanish government would ask for a full-scale sovereign bailout.

A bailout would allow the European Central Bank to step in and buy Spanish sovereign debt, which would result in reduced borrowing costs for the debt-strapped nation. But Spain has been reluctant to do so because it may come with conditions on its budget.

The risk-off trade environment saw the U.S. dollar hit a one-week high against the euro, while the dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, gained 0.5% to trade at 80.06, the highest since October 11.

Dollar-denominated oil futures contracts tend to fall when the dollar gains, as this makes oil more expensive for buyers in other currencies.

Oil traders were awaiting fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products to gauge the strength of oil demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

The American Petroleum Institute will release its inventories report later in the day, while Wednesday’s government report could show crude stockpiles rose by 1.7 million barrels last week.

Investors are also turning their attention to the Federal Reserve's two-day policy-setting meeting, which kicks off later in the day, after the central bank announced its third round of quantitative easing last month.

Markets may stay subdued ahead of the release later in the week of U.S. data including monthly new home sales, durable goods orders and third-quarter GDP figures.

The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil-consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand.

Meanwhile, market participants continued to focus on tensions between Syria and Turkey and the possibility that Iran could support Syria in such a dispute.

Violence also spilled over to neighboring Lebanon in recent days, fuelling concerns over a region-wide conflict.

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa were responsible for 36% of global oil production and held 52% of proved reserves in 2011.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for December delivery dropped 1.15% to trade at USD108.19 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD21.33 a barre

[Macintosh]

Yes indeed oil prices finally breaking through the support level of the beginning of fly down, and as you can see on the daily chart for the first will be 84 dollars ... on the short-term charts can be seen that a very small pullbacks in this expected that tomorrow the price continues to fall .. .

[raihan8212]

Crude oil futures were down during European morning hours on Tuesday, trading close to a three-week low as lingering fears over the health of the global economy continued to weigh on the appeal of growth-linked assets.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD88.38 a barrel during European morning trade, shedding 0.3%.

New York-traded oil prices fell by as much as 0.5% earlier in the session to hit a daily low of USD88.22 a barrel, the cheapest since October 4.

Oil prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions, as increasing concerns over the outlook for global economic growth and the impact on future oil demand prospects dampened the appeal of the commodity.

Market sentiment remained on the back foot after ratings agency Moody�s cut the credit ratings of Catalonia and four other Spanish regions late Monday, citing their worsening liquidity positions and predicting that these regions are likely to ask the central government for aid in 2013.

The down****e comes on the heels of regional elections in Spain. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy�s center-right Popular Party increased its majority in his home region of Galicia on Sunday, removing a possible obstacle to formally requesting financial aid from Spain�s euro zone partners.

Rajoy said last week he still had not decided whether to request a sovereign bailout.

Market players have been anticipating for the past month that the Spanish government would ask for a full-scale sovereign bailout.

A bailout would allow the European Central Bank to step in and buy Spanish sovereign debt, which would result in reduced borrowing costs for the debt-strapped nation. But Spain has been reluctant to do so because it may come with conditions on its budget.

The U.S. dollar was higher against the euro, while the dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.15% to trade at 79.79, the highest since October 15.

Oil prices typically weaken when the U.S. currency strengthens as the dollar-priced commodity becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Losses were limited as market players continued to focus on tensions between Syria and Turkey and the possibility that Iran could support Syria in such a dispute.

Violence also spilled over to neighboring Lebanon in recent days, fuelling concerns over a region-wide conflict.

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa were responsible for 36% of global oil production and held 52% of proved reserves in 2011.

Oil traders were awaiting fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products to gauge the strength of oil demand in the world�s largest oil consumer.

The American Petroleum Institute will release its inventories report later in the day, while Wednesday�s government report could show crude stockpiles rose by 1.7 million barrels last week.

Investors are also turning their attention to the Federal Reserve's two-day policy-setting meeting, which kicks off later in the day, after the central bank announced its third round of quantitative easing last month.

Markets may stay subdued ahead of the release later in the week of U.S. data including monthly new home sales, durable goods orders and third-quarter GDP figures.

The U.S. is the world�s biggest oil-consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for December delivery dipped 0.15% to trade at USD109.29 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD20.91 a barrel.