Eur/Chf

[Asif777]

Credit Suisse: 1.20 remains a point of attraction for the EURCHF

The euro, paired with the Swiss franc, ended Tuesday with a decline, but Credit Suisse notes that the events of the previous two days have confirmed the strength of the bulls, and are waiting for the development of an upward trend in the near future.

Bank strategists draw attention to the fact that EURCHF formed a closing above 1.1742/50, now attempts to return lower attract interest to the purchase, and the focus was shifted to the January highs near 1.1832. In general, the nature of the technical picture on longer-term charts suggests that the pair is on the way to 1.20, although Credit Suisse is warned that this resistance to the bulls will be difficult to overcome. The bank believes that significant for the bulls is support in the area of 1.1677/73, and the pair needs to stay higher to avoid forming the top.

[Asif777]

The SNB can sit back and relax in today’s monetary policy assessment. The euro’s strength since last spring has meant that EURCHF has reached higher levels, a develop-ment it finds much easier to live with. However, the EURCHF exchange rate remains at the mercy of developments in the euro zone, which the SNB cannot influence. So perhaps the situation is not that relaxed after all..

[Hanif484]

Message from Goldman Sachs:

The SNB will not soon begin to tighten monetary policy, so the franc will continue to cheaper against the euro as long as the economic and market situation is favorable. We raise the 12-month forecast for the pair from chf1.20 to 1.25, and accordingly, the 3 and 6-month forecasts also increase from chf1.17 and chf1.18 to chf1.18 and chf1.20, respectively.

Inflation in Switzerland remains below the SNB forecasts in December, and demand deposits have recently increased, so the regulator is unlikely to tolerate a serious increase in the franc rate. In general, the growth rates of GDP and inflation in Switzerland lag behind the pan-European, and its economy continues to strongly depend on the exchange rate of the national currency. As the monetary policy in the Eurozone normalizes, the capital that fled to Switzerland from the crisis will begin to return, which will lead to a decrease in the franc. However, our bullish forecasts for the pair could be threatened in the event of a sudden deterioration of the situation in the Eurozone.

[Tanveer333]

I'm surprised this thread isn't more popular?

Saw a really nice setup yesterday. On the daily chart the price hit the top of a descending channel for the third time, passed through a support, and also crossed an ascending trend line.

I took a short at 1.14185. TP is set to 1.131, and break-even has already been reached (I love a low-risk position!

[IGI]

EUR...CHF
technical analysis eur/chf
this is a sensitive price rate
the price eur/chf buying point is 1.3369 and the selling point 1.3341

[Asif777]

.No I said sorry, because I wanted to posted in my the cesarnc thread and I posted here by mistake, is not trading related, but they are one of my favorites so if you like them good, great

[Hanif484]

No doubt everyone at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is standing to attention. The central bankers are unlikely to enjoy the fact that EURCHF has eased below the 1.13 level. As a result of the lira crisis the franc is in demand as a safe haven. And only in April things had still looked so promising for the SNB when EURCHF touched the 1.20 mark. Now, however, the SNB will have to ask itself whether it will change its wording on the franc again. Let us remind ourselves: in June 2017 EUR-CHF traded at 1.09 and the SNB referred to the franc as “significantly overvalued”. In September 2017 however, when EURCHF had been trading above the 1.14 mark for some time, the SNB changed its wording and now only referred to the franc as “highly valued”. Admittedly, at 1.2% yoy inflation is now higher than last summer (0.2%), but core inflation has only recovered from 0.2% to 0.5% since then. Sufficient reason for the SNB not to exclude that in case of further franc weakness it might decide at its next meeting on 20th September to return to its old wording of “significantly overvalued”, should EURCHF have approached the 1.10 level until then. Interventions on the FX market are of course also possible even though the SNB will probably want to avoid these as far as possible. Once again things are outside the SNB’s control. The development in EURCHF will depend on how risk aversion will develop on the market. And that is difficult to predict, unfortunately. Should EURCHF continue to fall, I could imagine increasing comments on the part of SNB officials on exchange rate developments, beyond the reluctant comments by SNB vice governor Fritz Zurbruegg on the SNB’s willingness to intervene yesterday.

[Tanveer333]

Hi chonchy, why do u say sorry, I thank u for Thais because I didn't know they had made up.

So heres my secret. This pair is in bulls mode for me.

[Hanif484]

Floor hold strong during the flash crash in thin market after the roll.
It looks litteraly on a launching platform now .

H1 has already reversed up I think ; on H4 bulls need to take 1.131x. Both TF have an intraday floor @ 1.122x imo.
Reversal up (of the retrace) on daily will come with the break up of 1.136x.
Let's see !

[Asif777]

On EURCHF, TA wise, I think we are in a good value area to go long.
We reversed up the downtrend last October and current leg is a simple retrace (= dead cat bounce) to last breakup point.

FA wise, it looks like a no brainer I think. SNB is super dovish while ECB has just ended its QE and claimed its base scenario is still valid despite downside risks & growth slowdown.

Under this angle, It seems we have a nice setup for a swing that could bring us to 1.163x.

Only risk is political risk inside EZ I think but to me it is fading away (German political turmoil solved + Italian budget solved + France streets noise fading away)