Thread: Aud/Usd
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Since the RBA meeting on August 6th, investors have pared back expectations on easing with two-year yields climbing by about 35 bps and money markets discounting only 18 bps of easing this year.
In this regard, Citibank notes that over the same time period, its indicator on short-term AUD positioning has climbed from significantly negative territory to slightly positive.
This, according to Citi, suggests that investors have been reducing shorts which is hardly looks consistent with RBA rhetoric.
"In the August policy statement, The RBA flagged the negative impact from drag associated with rising yields and tightening financial conditions. Policymakers expressed desire for additional exchange rate weakening and tweaked their forward looking guidance to hint at more prolonged easing. In an earlier speech, Governor Stevens suggested the RBA was keen to use a weaker exchange rate as a policy lever," Citi clarifies.
Given that, what will likely be the tone of the August RBA minutes?
"Given the focus from Governor Stevens on the exchange rate as a policy tool, there is risk that the language on FX in the Minutes reveals even stronger intent to weaken AUD than was evident in the statement. The RBA is likely to frown upon tightening in financial conditions and rises in AUD," Citi projects.
And how should investors position in AUD in the run-up to the minutes?
"We favor short AUD positions in the run up to the RBA minutes. AUD should be vulnerable, because markets look poorly positioned for a reiteration of RBA dovishness," Citi advises.
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Aud/usd technical analysis
date : 08.20.2013
time : 11:30 GMT
time frame : 15 min
indicator :
1) RSI (14)
value: 54.99
2) MACD (26,12,9)
value: 0.0000
3) ADX (14)
value: 28.07
4)CCI(14)
value: 63.96
overall trend - slightly bullish.
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The following data is predicted based on indicators that we use for the currency pair AUDUSD today, for today's resistance levels as follows: RI (0.9239) R II (0.9269) R III (0.9319). and to this day support levels as follows: SI (0.9116) S II (0.9079) S IIII (0.9037)
recommendation:
my recomendation just buy order because price in s III ( that mean strong reversal)
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Aud/usd analysis for 08.20.2013 by using pivot indicator.
r3: 0.93212
r2: 0.92763
r1: 0.91921
pivot: 0.91472
s1: 0.90630
s2: 0.90181
s3: 0.89399
Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.
Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.
Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.
Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.
The AUD/USD In line 4H There are two consecutive summits
every top of the low of her pervious summit is
an indication of the low is uncertain,
and I expect his arrival to the resistance line at
the point of 0.9048 and selling at this point
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Pivot: 0.913
My preference: Short positions below 0.913 with targets @ 0.9035 & 0.9 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.913 look for further upside with 0.916 & 0.919 as targets.
Note: the RSI has broken down its 30 level.
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