The cycle-sensitive Canadian Dollar may fall in the week ahead if growth prospects from the US – the source of Canada’s economic vitality and primary destination for its exports – darken. Initial jobless claims data continues to register at historically-high levels and with such a magnitude that it makes the 2008 crisis – in comparison within this particular data set – look like a garden-variety downturn.
The Canadian Dollar will be paying particularly close attention to the publication of preliminary Markit PMI data for April out of the world’s largest economy. A worse-than-expected print could hurt CAD and cause it to retrace some of its recent gains. Even if the data registers in-line with forecasts or slightly better, the fundamental uncertainty posed by the coronavirus will likely continue haunting the Canadian Dollar.