Usd/Jpy

[Asif777]

(tight stops, spreads and extreme trade selection/vetting required - one or two snipe shots then ruthless retire/retreat regardless of further considerations - trigger happy compulsive over trading and scalping attempts will results in fast losses - losses are not our concern - separate sideline account suggested - no time for further comment

[Hanif484]

I placed 4 trades out of frustration which wasn't smart, but have TP1 108.890, TP2 at 108.860, and others BE

[Tanveer333]

to trade or not to trade the Brexit vote on January 15?

what happened during the Brexit referendum vote last time on June 23, 2016

i'm sitting out of the market until things become more clear

[Asif777]

In my chart analysis view I see a second test of the 105.xx aera in next 4 weeks. In case of a new drop down of the DJ/ S&P500 it will come sooner.
First indication is a daily break of 108. A strong restistance level is 110.30 area.
I am short (swing trade).

[Hanif484]

Are you tracking the USDJPY market this week? Consider this technical perspective from a short-term swing trader.

On the weekly time frame, the 104.050/114.230 zone has clearly provided a channel within which much of price action has operated since 2017. Within the channel, presently price action is largely disposed southwards. The long-tailed bearish candlestick formed two weeks ago is likely to be an opportunity for reprogramming price action to retest a value area northward and we may see a southward continuation this week.

[Tanveer333]

Final Required Capital per @ 1:30 ..@ 2% = FM £72 + M £26.18 = £98.18 per 0.01 lot. Margin @ 1 lot = £2,618. FM @ 1 lot = £7,200. FRC = £9,818.
Final Required Capital per @ 1:500 @ 2% = FM £72 + M £1.57 ..= £73.57 per 0.01 lot. Margin @ 1 Lot = £157. ..FM @ 1 lot = £7,200. FRC = £7,357.

For simplicity of illustration the above equation does not include trading costs. Due to scarcity of selective trading and no overnight swaps trading cost should be minimal and modelling results are considered within acceptable practical limits. For easy of reference a progressively incrementing table can be displayed in a spread sheet.

It will be noted that while in both cases FM risk % is the same (£72), margin (£1.57 vs £28.18) leverage is the variable that decides the difference of final required capital.

It should not be hard to figure resulting error when margin is not separated from risk calculation.

** While a margin of 1:2,000 is negligible, an account requiring FSCS protection will fall under ESMA 1:30 - a considerable difference. Margin calculation -

[Asif777]

This logic implies that in a perfect world of zero slippage a squandering of 50 consecutive risk expenditures (failure to close a losing trade at risk expenditure limit) will result in a bankrupt account with 100 % margin remaining.

Thus, risk of 2% and maximum stop of 200 points calculates -,
- example - Lots x Points x Exchange Rate = £# Risk. £# x 50 = £~ Free Margin. £# Risk = 2% of £~ Free Margin
- example - 0.01 lots x 200 points x 0.71788 = £1.435 = £1.44 Risk. £1.44 x 50 = £72 Free Margin. £1.44 Risk = 2 % of £72 Free Margin.

Free Margin + Margin = Final Required Capital per 0.01 lot

[Hanif484]

Omission:
Reference additional multiple higher timeframes in accordance with own research.

Edit:
A key fallacy is to calculate risk against Capital without separating margin from risk calculation**. Margin is dead animal - none working collateral reserve, is not at risk and is considered at 100 % margin Stop Out.

Any number divided by 50 gives a result of 2% of the original number (150/50 = 3, (3/150)*100 = 2%)***. If 2% risk is selected, 2% risk is calculated against free margin which excludes margin collateral

[Tanveer333]

Red-light - Stay-out* indication ↓ // 15:18 - 2018-07-05 - Chart Time: London - winter

* Although experienced hands may have found a one shot snipe opportunity off the bounce of the dash green High line - due to considerable chop and safety in trading only ideal conditions the indicator is considered Red-light

[Asif777]

Omission:
Preceding chart examples cover, on the fly, Mon, Tues, Wed, Thu, Fri for second week 2019, 7-11/Jan/2019.
Suited to sideline account traded only under ideal trading conditions. Non trading conditions can persist for session/s, day/s or week/s.

Edit:
Charts red/white candles are indicative of general market direction to enhance visual perspective and change of color does not represent definitive entry or exit signals.

Omission:
A contributing assist (every indicator always works - except when it doesn't) to green-light/red-light analysis for lower than M1 TFs may be found to be the prevailing bar size foot-print. See below charts comparisons for visual descriptive of relevant indicator. We do not have a comparable MT4/5 indicator for distribution.

Green-light - Possible-get-in indication ↓ // 06:00 - 2018-07-05 - pre-London open - Chart Time: London - winter