Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[Umerali]

Forex min ap ko market ke bre min bot se analysis mil jian ge jis ki mada se ap ko trading ko kirn asan ho jiae ga as lia ap ko difrent sites mill jian ge.or yahi best hy

[Umerali]

Forex min ap ko market ke bre min bot se analysis mil jian ge jis ki mada se ap ko trading ko kirn asan ho jiae ga as lia ap ko difrent sites mill jian ge

[Umerali]

German data weakens, with industrial production unexpectedly dipping 1.4% m/m in June data (the median forecast had been for a 0.9% rise). The unexpected sharp contraction in German June production will cast a shadow over Q2 GDP estimates. However, the EUR seems to be ignoring this as EUR buyers are emerging on short term oversold conditions. Early-week markets in Asia are consolidating after Friday�s U.S. jobs report market volatility. Speculation that Beijing will speed up mergers of state owned companies helped support shares, while Japan�s Nikkei was driven by earnings reports, and the Australian market was supported by a strong rebound in bank shares.

Friday�s headline U.S. report printed a 215k July payroll rise with a 0.2% hourly earnings gain that exactly matched estimates, but tiny gains of 101k for civilian jobs and 69k for the labor force after June declines were a disappointment. There was a drop in the jobless rate to a 5.26% cycle-low from 5.28%, though the labor force participation rate remained at a 38-year low of 62.6%. The FOMC is on the verge of its first rate hike since June 2006. However, a tightening is still not guaranteed and there remain some risks that could keep the Fed sidelined.

[Umerali]

Greece submitted its reform proposals at the 11th hour as it seeks an additional EUR 53.5 bln ($59 bln) in bailouts. The 10-page document included many reform measures which had been sought by the EU, including government spending cuts for pensions. PM Tsipras also agreed to shift a variety of goods and services into higher sales tax categories. In return for accepting even harsher measures than previously proposed, the government wants a commitment from creditors to further negotiate long-term debt conditions. Officials, including those from the IMF, will analyze the proposals prior to Saturday�s EU finance ministers meeting, prior to the EU summit on Sunday. Risk appetite is likely to extend higher into the weekend on this news.

Greece�s concessions could save the day. The last minute reform proposals are similar creditor�s proposal from June 24, which voters rejected in a referendum last Sunday. The new proposals are to be checked for feasibility and sustainability by ECB, European Commission and IMF prior to the Eurogroup meeting Saturday and the summit on Sunday, according to newspaper reports, but initial reviews suggest Tsipras made more concessions, while also asking for a review of debt sustainability. The important part here is to stress that this doesn�t need to be haircuts, which no-one is asking for, but could also be a further extension of the debt schedule and lower interest rates, something finance ministers already discussed last year. Although officials will likely want to see signs that reforms are not just promised but actually implemented, before committing to such a move.

[Umerali]

Yesterday US new home sales rose 2.2% to a 546k pace in May after rebounding 8.1% to 534k in April (revised from 517k) from the 9.4% March drop to 494k. That knocked the month�s supply to 4.5 from 4.6 (revised from 4.8). Regionally, sales were split with gains in the Northeast and West, and declines in the Midwest and South. The median sales price fell 2.9% to $282,800 from $291,100 (revised from $297,300). Prices are down 1.0% y/y versus the 6.0% y/y clip in April. Data are better than expected. The U.S. Markit flash PMI manufacturing index slipped to 53.4 in June from May�s 54.0 and is down from April�s 54.1. It�s a third straight monthly decline and is the weakest reading since October 2013. However, employment and new orders were higher, with the former at its fastest pace since November. Average cost burdens were up for a second straight month.

[Umerali]

short term picture (daily and 4h) is suggesting that price not far from levels it could stage a rally from. However, there are resistance levels above current price which should lead to a down move that would take the price of Gold to levels below Friday�s low. I am expecting it to attract buyers above 1141.70 and attempt a turn around.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

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[Umerali]

The last time there was a similar rally in the price of Gold was in the 1970s. In August 1976 Gold made a low of 101.50 and in a space of four years rallied approximately almost nine times higher. The recent rally was almost as extreme in terms of price multiples but it happened over a longer period of time. The rally started in 2001 and lasted till 2011. After peaking in 1980 the price of Gold lost almost 75% over the next 18 months. Therefore the 38% correction over the 18 months following the 2011 peak suggests that market participants can better stomach volatility that takes place over a longer time period and that this time around there has been more safe haven buying.

Over the last three weeks Gold has corrected to 1168 support after being rejected from 1224.50 resistance level and 50 week moving average. The lower Bollinger Bands are not too far and the Stochastics Oscillator is getting oversold. The price of Gold has now reached an area where reversals have happened in the past. This suggests that the downside is getting limited. The nearest support and resistance levels are at 1168 and 1224.50.

Gold, Daily

Gold is now trading between a daily resistance at 1179.90 and 1168.40 after penetrating the support on intraday basis on Friday. The 23.6% Fibonacci level coincides with the 1179.90 resistance. This suggests further weakness before price can turn around and is in line with the current down trend that has been in force since the May high. I look Gold to consolidate and turn between Friday�s low of 1162.60 and March low of 1141.70.

[Umerali]

Greece submitted its reform proposals at the 11th hour as it seeks an additional EUR 53.5 bln ($59 bln) in bailouts. The 10-page document included many reform measures which had been sought by the EU, including government spending cuts for pensions. PM Tsipras also agreed to shift a variety of goods and services into higher sales tax categories. In return for accepting even harsher measures than previously proposed, the government wants a commitment from creditors to further negotiate long-term debt conditions. Officials, including those from the IMF, will analyze the proposals prior to Saturday�s EU finance ministers meeting, prior to the EU summit on Sunday. Risk appetite is likely to extend higher into the weekend on this news.

Greece�s concessions could save the day. The last minute reform proposals are similar creditor�s proposal from June 24, which voters rejected in a referendum last Sunday. The new proposals are to be checked for feasibility and sustainability by ECB, European Commission and IMF prior to the Eurogroup meeting Saturday and the summit on Sunday, according to newspaper reports, but initial reviews suggest Tsipras made more concessions, while also asking for a review of debt sustainability. The important part here is to stress that this doesn�t need to be haircuts, which no-one is asking for, but could also be a further extension of the debt schedule and lower interest rates, something finance ministers already discussed last year. Although officials will likely want to see signs that reforms are not just promised but actually implemented, before committing to such a move.

ECB ultimatum may have aided reform concessions. A dutch newspaper reported that the ECB will terminate ELA as of 6 am Monday morning if Greek reform proposals are deemed too light and Greece is unwilling to cooperate with withdrawal from the Eurozone. The reports cites an unidentified EU official and the ECB�s final ultimatum may have helped to produce somewhat of a turnaround in Greece, which seems to have finally ended the posturing and put meat on the reform proposals.

U.S. initial jobless claims surged 15k to 297k in the July 4 week, following the 11k jump to 282k in the prior week (revised from 281k). This brought the 4-week moving average to 279.5k versus 275k (revised from 274.75k. Continuing claims jumped 69k to 2,334k in the week ended June 27 from 2,265k in the prior week (revised from 2,264k). The larger than expected increase in jobless claims is likely more a function of the July 4 holiday than a change in the labor market, even though the BLS said there was nothing unusual in the data.

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EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price continues to contract and trade within a narrow three day range ahead of today�s U.S. Nonfarm payrolls economic data release. The Bollinger band EURUSD trend analysis on the daily chart indicates that volatility is narrowing, which is typical before the release of a major economic report. Price over the last three trading sessions has stayed below the 20 period simple moving average, however, a bullish cross is observed within the Stochastic Momentum Oscillator indicator. The fact that price remains well contained within the multi-week downward moving channel and the bullish cross observation that has accrued below the Stochastic 20 level indicates oversold market conditions in the short term.

[Umerali]

The last time there was a similar rally in the price of Gold was in the 1970s. In August 1976 Gold made a low of 101.50 and in a space of four years rallied approximately almost nine times higher. The recent rally was almost as extreme in terms of price multiples but it happened over a longer period of time. The rally started in 2001 and lasted till 2011. After peaking in 1980 the price of Gold lost almost 75% over the next 18 months. Therefore the 38% correction over the 18 months following the 2011 peak suggests that market participants can better stomach volatility that takes place over a longer time period and that this time around there has been more safe haven buying.

Over the last three weeks Gold has corrected to 1168 support after being rejected from 1224.50 resistance level and 50 week moving average. The lower Bollinger Bands are not too far and the Stochastics Oscillator is getting oversold. The price of Gold has now reached an area where reversals have happened in the past. This suggests that the downside is getting limited. The nearest support and resistance levels are at 1168 and 1224.50.

[Umerali]

• The AUD is attempting to break a recent downtrend, as the RBA held rates steady at 2.00%, matching expectations. The central bank also noted that “growth in output had continued at around the average pace of recent years” and that while global trade was “subdued” it had “picked up recently,” although China was still seen as a main risk.

• The JPY has weakened against most of the majors, news that the Japanese government will put forward a supplementary budget of at least JPY 3 tln, has weighed on the yen. Given the weakened state of the Japanese economy further QE moves are expected from the Bank at some point. For now, USDJPY remains as a buy on the pullbacks.