Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 5th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 5th November 2015.



EURGBP UPDATE

I wrote in yesterday’s analysis on EURGBP: At the time of writing the pair is trading at the supporting end of the wedge. This market is still in a sell the rallies mode with the nearest resistance levels at 0.7093 and 0.7105. The nearest 240 min support is at 0.7060 while the next daily support can be found at 0.7027.

Those that have been to my webinars knew exactly how to get into a short trade and had a low risk trade opportunity as EURGBP hit the 0.7093 resistance identified in the report. The pair hit the first support yesterday and after some consolidation has now resumed the downward momentum. Those that used the position management technique they have learned in the webinars have now a profitable and risk free trade. You are most welcome to join me to the webinars and learn how to find and trade these opportunities. Register now. It’s free.

Today is a so called super Thursday, a day when Bank of England publishes not only the interest rates decision but also the quarterly inflation report. No changes are anticipated from the BoE. As Governor Carney has pointed out on at least two occasions since mid-summer, the possibility of a rate hike will be in “sharper relief” at the end of the year, so the implicit tightening bias remains in place. Still, the minutes will be of considerable interest, along with the Quarterly Inflation Report, which will bring new projections on inflation and growth. We expect the minutes to reveal a 8-1 vote to keep the repo rate unchanged at 0.5%, with the lone hawk McCafferty maintaining his dissent for a quarter point hike for a fourth straight month.

The Inflation Report should reveal downward nudges to both inflation and growth forecasts in the nearer-term part of the forecast horizon following disappointing prelim Q3 GDP growth and an unexpected return to negative inflation readings in September.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

No changes are anticipated from the BoE. As Governor Carney has pointed out on at least two occasions since mid-summer, the possibility of a rate hike will be in “sharper relief” at the end of the year, so the implicit tightening bias remains in place. Still, the minutes will be of considerable interest, along with the Quarterly Inflation Report, which will bring new projections on inflation and growth. We expect the minutes to reveal a 8-1 vote to keep the repo rate unchanged at 0.5%, with the lone hawk McCafferty maintaining his dissent for a quarter point hike for a fourth straight month. The Inflation Report should reveal downward nudges to both inflation and growth forecasts in the nearer-term part of the forecast horizon following disappointing prelim Q3 GDP growth and an unexpected return to negative inflation readings in September.

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was revised up to 2.3% for Q4 compared to 1.9% previously following the surge on ISM Services to 59.1 in October: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 2.3 percent on November 4, up from 1.9 percent on November 2. Following this morning’s Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, the forecast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent while the forecast for real fixed investment growth increased from 3.0 percent to 4.3 percent.” Blue Chip median estimates have settled near 2.7% and this update closed the gap somewhat.

Implied Fed funds futures are suggesting about a 58% chance of a hike in December, versus about 52% at yesterday’s close, and 50% at the start of the week. Though the Fed Chair didn’t say anything new in her Q&A, the fact that she didn’t back down from the hawkish spin in the October policy statement, and that she reiterated the transitory nature of the soft trend in inflation added to market beliefs that the FOMC will pull the trigger this time. While the Fed must still monitor incoming data, unless the numbers are unambiguously weak, the FOMC can still tighten policy on the excuse that the figures are in line with their outlooks.

Main Macro Events Today

* US Initial Jobless Claims: Initial claims data for the week of October 31st is out today and should reveal a 257k (median 263k) headline from 260k in the week prior. Claims are continuing to strike a firm path and look poised to leave a month oaverage of 259k in October, down from 269k in September and 275k in August. Alongside the strength in claims we expect a better October employment report with a 190k headline.

* US Productivity: The first release on Q3 productivity should revel a 1.5% (median unchanged) decline following a 3.3% increasein Q2. Unit labor costs should be up 4.0% (median 2.3) after a 1.4% decline in Q2. Output is expected to by up 1.2% which compares to the Q3 GDP figure of 1.5%.

* Canada Ivey PMI: We expect the Ivey PMI to improve to 55.0 in October from 53.7 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Broadly, business sentiment remains under pressure as the economy continues to adjust to the oil sector contraction and global growth uncertainty. The RBC manufacturing PMI (released Monday) fell to 48.0 in October from 48.6 in September. The CFIB Business Barometer survey of small and medium sized business sentiment improved to 58.9 in October from a 56.0 level in September that was the lowest since April of 2009. Yet the CFIB’s index was well below the level seen in October of 2014.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 3rd November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 3rd November 2015.



• The USD within the last 5 days’ of trading is lower across the board, in the wake of the latest US economic data that could be viewed by some market analysts that the Fed will continue to hold off again on any move on rates. However, the latest data does contradict the FOMC statement that hinted at a potential rate hike as early as December. For the time being, the market expectation looks to remain a mixed bag. The ISM manufacturing PMI in October inched down to 50.1 from 50.2 in the preceding month, the ISM headline missed the mark, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP for Q4 fell to 1.9% from 2.5%, last forecast on Friday. The USD market will now focus on the U.S. Non-farm Payroll report due out on Friday.

• The AUD is attempting to break a recent downtrend, as the RBA held rates steady at 2.00%, matching expectations. The central bank also noted that “growth in output had continued at around the average pace of recent years” and that while global trade was “subdued” it had “picked up recently,” although China was still seen as a main risk.

• The JPY has weakened against most of the majors, news that the Japanese government will put forward a supplementary budget of at least JPY 3 tln, has weighed on the yen. Given the weakened state of the Japanese economy further QE moves are expected from the Bank at some point. For now, USDJPY remains as a buy on the pullbacks.



AUDUSD, Daily

Technically, the recent bullish momentum on the AUDUSD pair should continue since stochastic analysis, as well as moving average indicators, point to a potential close above the downward slopping trend line. Should we see a solid price close above the downward trend line, I would expect to see sellers emerging around the 0.7260-0.7290 areas before the continuation of its downtrend for a 0.7062 target.

FX PAIR: AUDUSD
SUPPORTS: 0.7062
RESISTANCES: 0.7260

[IMG]http://goo.gl/k79jdL/IMG]

USDJPY, Daily

The short-term trend is up as price is trading above the downward trend line (Aug – Oct), and price is above its 1 year moving average. Upside potential remains for a 121.80 target, on a break of 121.50, but losing 120.25 will point back towards 119.60.

FX PAIR: AUDJPY
SUPPORTS: 120.25/119.60
RESISTANCES: 121.50

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

The RBA left rates unchanged, which pushed the AUD up across the board, but that didn’t deter stock markets, which focused on the fact that the RBA still kept the door open for further easing.

The U.S. ISM slipped to a 50.1 low, the October ISM is at a new two year low of 50.1, with a drop in the employment gauge to a 47.6 six year low that reinforced the pattern of declining producer sentiment.

The U.S. construction spending report beat estimates, with a 0.6% September rise after boosts in the July and August levels, though the surprise included big boosts in the home improvement residual that doesn’t enter GDP calculations, and the remaining construction data signaled downside risk for the next Q3 GDP revision.

Canada RBC manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0, in October from 48.6 in September. The decline puts the index further below the previous multi-year low of 48.7 seen in February, leaving the weakest reading in this indicator’s short history going back to late 2010.

U.K. manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.5, in October from 51.8 in September. This was a much stronger than expected reading and in fact the highest since June last year.

Gold slipped to nearly one-month lows, now trading around $1,1137/ounce, after touching $1,132,66 overnight. The market continues to fret over last week’s FOMC statement, where fears of a December rate hike have weighed heavily on gold prices.

Crude oil prices declined from two week highs, following poor manufacturing PMI readings out of China, which suggest ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity in the world’s second largest oil consuming countries.

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision: RBA held rates steady at 2.00%, matching expectations. The statement was similar to last month, lacking clear guidance and sticking to a cautiously dovish tone that justifies prevailing policy settings while reminding that they have room to cut further if needed. They also maintained the shift to less-negative language about the Australian dollar (first seen in August) remarking that the currency was “adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices” versus the previous guidance that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.”

• GBP PMI Construction: The forecast calls for a 58.8 reading down from the last 59.9 number.

• ECB Presidents Draghi’s Speech: Eurozone markets will look for comments from ECB’s Draghi for a clarification of the policy stance after the president seemed to dampen easing hopes in comments from last weekend.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 2nd November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 2nd November 2015.



Main Macro Events This Week

United States: There are several crucial economic reports this week, including nonfarm payrolls, vehicle sales, ISMs, and trade. The October employment report due out on Friday will be the week’s main event. The unemployment rate is forecast dipping to 5.0% from 5.1% previously, another multi-decade low. Also of importance is October ISM manufacturing figures on Monday and the services data on Wednesday. The manufacturing index is estimated edging up to 50.5 from 50.2 in September, though that’s just barely in expansionary territory. The non-manufacturing index is expected to rise to 57.0 from 56.9 as solid growth is seen accelerating a bit. Vehicle sales on Tuesday are expected to inch lower, however, after strong sales through the summer. Trade figures for September on Wednesday should show sharp narrowing in the deficit to a -$41.5 bln gap, from -$48.3 bln in August, given the drop in the goods deficit posted last week. Q3 productivity on Thursday is seen at unchanged for the preliminary report, from the 3.3% Q2 pace. Unit labor costs should rebound to a 2.5% rate in Q3, versus Q2′s -1.4%. Other data include October ADP private payrolls on Wednesday, construction spending for September also on Monday, September factory orders on Tuesday, and September consumer credit to be released on Friday.

• Canada: Key reports this week from Canada, with September trade and October employment on the schedule. The September trade balance on Wednesday is expected to narrow to -C$1.9 bln in from the -C$2.5 bln shortfall in August. Employment on Friday is expected to improve 10.0k in October after the 12.1k gain in September. The unemployment rate is seen at 7.1% in October, matching the 7.1% rate seen in September. The Ivey PMI on Thursday is projected to improve to 55.0 in October from the seasonally adjusted 53.7 in September. Building permits on Friday are anticipated to grow 1.0% in September after the 3.7% drop in August. The RBC manufacturing PMI for October is due Monday. Results in line with analyst estimates, especially on trade and employment, would be supportive of the Bank of Canada’s constructive view on the growth and inflation outlook as detailed in the October Monetary Policy Report.

• Japan: The October Markit/JMMA PMI on Monday is expected to slip to 51.0 from 51.2. Auto sales are also on tap. The markets are closed Tuesday for the Culture Day holiday. The calendar does not pick up again until late in the week with the BoJ minutes to the October 6, 7 meeting on Thursday. Preliminary September leading and coincident indices on Friday should show the former down 1.3% m/m from the prior -1.5% reading, while the latter is expected to come in at -0.7% m/m from -0.9% in August. In addition, eyes will be peeled for news on a rumored Japanese government special stimulus budget, which made the rounds last Friday following the BoJ’s inaction on the QE front.

• China: The Caixin/Markit series released today improved slightly to 48.3 from 47.2. October services PMI out on Wednesday is likely to improve to 50.7 from 50.5.

• Australia: The calendar for Australia features the RBA on Tuesday, which is expected to maintain the current 2.00% policy setting, although the slowing in core CPI during Q3 revealed last week opened the door to a possible rate cut. As for economic data, the trade deficit on Wednesday is expected to narrow to -A$3.0 bln in September from -A$3.1 bln in August. Retail sales on Wednesday are seen rising 0.3% in September after the 0.4% gain in August. Building approvals on Monday expanded 2.2% in September after the 6.9% drop in August. The RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy due out on Friday will update the bank’s growth and inflation projections.

• New Zealand: The calendar features the Q3 employment report on Wednesday. It’s expected for HLFS employment to rise 0.5% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% gain in Q2. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 6.0% in Q3 from 5.9% in Q2.

• Europe: This week’s reports are unlikely to change the macro outlook fundamentally for the Eurozone . The services index is out on Wednesday. Economic activity continues to expand, and on the whole, confidence readings have surprised on the upside in October, which shows the recovery remains on track. German manufacturing orders on Thursday are also expected to have rebounded in September, after falling sharply in August. German industrial production on tab for Friday is seen up 0.4% m/m , after falling 1.2% m/m in August — the September drop in orders likely will prevent a more pronounced rebound. Eurozone retail sales are also due out on Thursday.

• UK: October editions of PMI survey data, along with September production numbers are on tap. There also is the November BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (announcing Thursday). An expected uptick in the services index should help stabilize the composite reading. Its expected that the services PMI released on Wednesday to rebound from September’s 29-month low at 53.3, anticipating a 54.4 outcome. The manufacturing PMI today is expected at 51.3 after 51.5 in the previous month. Production data is expected to show a -0.1% m/m dip in the industrial output figure, while the narrower manufacturing number is expected at +0.6% m/m.



FX News Today

The GBP is slightly higher, against the EUR and USD after a much stronger than expected U.K. Manufacturing PMI reading. The unexpected jump in the manufacturing PMI, which has lowered the chances that the BoE will remove its implicit tightening bias. Gains against EUR, JPY and USD are modest however.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI, All Eurozone PMI readings apart from Greece are above the 50 point no change mark and even in Greece, confidence is improving further. Still, while the numbers signal a slight uptick in manufacturing output at the start of the last quarter, growth in the manufacturing sector is hardly buoyant and the sector is feeling the strain from the slowdown in emerging market economies, most notably China.

Eurozone stock markets are higher, the FTSE 100 is underperforming and posting slight losses, despite much better than expected PMI readings.

Worries over China’s growth, the official manufacturing PMI held steady at 49.8 in October, disappointing expectations for a bounce back to the 50.0 expansion-contraction line. It’s a third straight sub-50 reading. The non-manufacturing index slipped to to 53.1 from 53.4, still reflecting expansion but is the slowest pace since December 2008.

Greek banks need EUR 14.4 bln recapitalization, the ECB said in its Asset Quality Review, published Saturday, that Greek banks need at least EUR 4.4 bln from shareholders and bondholders to meet the shortfall identified under the current baseline macroeconomic assumptions.

Turkish lira soars, with stocks on Erdogan election success. The currency jumped the most since 2008 according to Bloomberg calculations after Erdogan’s AK Party won the second election this year. This ends months of political deadlock and gave a boost to stocks, as well as bonds, with 10-year yields dropping to the lowest level in three months.

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP U.K. manufacturing PMI: Jumped to 55.5 in October from 51.8 in September. A much stronger than expected reading and in fact the highest since June last year. The new orders number jumped to 56.9 from 52.9 in the previous month and is at the highest level since July 2014. GBP is slightly higher against EUR and USD and the Gilt contract has extended losses on the strong number that will back the arguments to maintain the BoE’s tightening bias.

• EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI: EMU Oct manufacturing PMI revised up to 52.3 from 52.0 reported initially and versus 52.0 in the previous month. National readings had been mixed, but with Spanish and French numbers slightly lower than expected, while the Italian reading surged higher and the German PMI was revised up markedly with the final release.

• USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: The manufacturing index is estimated edging up to 50.5 from 50.2 in September, though that’s just barely in expansionary territory.

• CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI: If the results are in line with consensuses, especially on trade and employment, this would be supportive of the Bank of Canada’s constructive view on the growth and inflation outlook as detailed in the October Monetary Policy Report.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 28th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 28th October 2015.



The AUD is broadly weaker against the majors in the wake of disappointing CPI data.
The CAD is higher even though the BoC’s Lane did not offer anything new on policy or the economy, as expected.
The USD, EUR and GBP are mostly unchanged ahead of today’s start of the FOMC meeting.



AUDUSD, Daily

Price looks to retest .7160 before continuation of its downtrend for a 0.7162 target in the immediate short term. Price has broken down through recent lows at .7200. Targets further out could be near 0.7100 and 0.7020. However attempts to form a higher low near 0.7260 could signal a potential recovery towards the .7400′s.

FX Pair : AUDUSD
Supports: 0.7063
Resistances: 0.7260



USDCAD, Daily

Stochastic Oscillator analysis is starting to turn bearish. The medium term risk of a deeper retracement of the May to September 1.1922-1.3454 advance to a minimum of 1.2658-88 and possibly 1.2507-61 is possible; provided we get a solid break below the recent upward trend line. The longer-term trend does remain up. However, for the short term daily trader, I would expect any downward movement to stop near the 1.3180 – 1.3045 levels.

Main Macro Events Today



• USD Goods Trade Balance: The trade deficit has narrowed sharply since recent-highs early in 2012, and hovered close to levels seen in 2009 before the recent string of widening deficits that peaked in April. The September trade deficit is expected to contract 2.7% to -$47.0 bln after expanding 15.6% to -$48.3 bln in August. Exports in September are expected to decline 0.2% while imports show a 0.7% decrease on the month. The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to -$109.7 bln in Q2 from the -$118.3 bln deficit in Q1. Its expected for the deficit to be -$102 bln in Q3.

• USD FOMC Statement: Few expect any move from the Fed this year, let alone in the off-month of October.

• USD Consumer Confidence: The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) Shadow Board is sending the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) ahead of its Official Cash Rate (OCR) review today . The Board, comprised of nine economists and business leaders, is calling for RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler to leave the OCR at 2.75%. Wheeler has cut the OCR by 25 basis points on three occasions this year, indicating in his September Monetary Policy Statement, “Some further easing in the OCR seems likely”. NZIER senior economist Christina Leung recognizes that while inflation is very subdued at 0.4%, the economy will receive a boost.


FX News Today

The AUD provided the main action in overnight trade, the AUDUSD fell around 80 pips in making a three-week low at 0.7111, taking out its 50-day moving average at 0.7138 on route.

German GfK consumer confidence declines, confirming the downtrend in recent months. The low interest rate environment is making savings increasingly unattractive. At the same time, income expectations may have remained steady over the month, but have come down markedly since the summer and with business cycle expectations now in negative territory consumers are clearly starting to get concerned about the outlook.

German import price inflation weaker than expected, this continues to be driven by lower oil prices and the annual rate excluding oil related products remains in positive territory. Lower than expected import price inflation will ****ual feed through to headline CPI numbers and therefore add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB, with the updated set of staff projections in December likely to bring another adjustment in inflation projections and delivering Draghi the justification for additional easing.

Australia Core CPI was below projections, putting perhaps some pressure on the RBA to ease again. CPI increased 0.5% in Q3. Australia CPI grew at a 1.5% y/y rate, matching the 1.5% y/y rate in Q2. CPI grew at a 1.3% y/y clip in Q1. Total CPI has run below 2.0% since Q4 of 2014, which was a 1.7% rate. The trimmed mean CPI slowed to a 2.1% y/y pace from a 2.2% y/y pace in Q2 and a 2.3% rate in Q1. The weighted median CPI expanded at a 2.2% y/y rate in Q3 after the 2.4% y/y clip in Q2 and the 2.5% clip in Q1.

Japan retail sales fell 0.2% y/y in Sep, September retail sales fell 0.2% y/y after rising 0.8% y/y in August. On the month sales edged up 0.7% versus unchanged previously. Large retailer sales slowed slightly to a 1.7% y/y pace from August’s 1.8%. (28-Oct). Household spending, or PCE rebounded 2.9% y/y in August after falling 0.2% y/y in July, and versus -2.0% y/y in June. (Aug 28). Consumer Confidence (SA) fell to 40.3 in July from 41.7 in June and 41.4 in May. (Aug 10).

[B]Bank of Japan to Expand Stimulus[B/], Slowing inflation growth alongside and a mixed domestic growth backdrop provide the Bank of Japan with the backing to expand already ample policy accommodation. The rate cut by China’s central bank and dovish guidance from the European Central Bank have stacked the deck in favor of further easing measures from the Bank of Japan, as we expect them to pursue a more is better approach to policy.

[B]FOMC likely to hold firm with minimal changes to outlook[B/], The FOMC meets today and tomorrow and there is virtually no chance for any changes in policy. But the policy statement will be scrutinized for any indications that December will be the start of the tightening process. It’s still the case that only the employment mandate is being met, while inflation is still lagging. But weakness in recent real sector data, including today’s September durables report, along with renewed erosion in commodity prices, and the firmer dollar, argue against accelerating growth and don’t suggest inflationary pressures will be on the rise anytime soon. Look for the Fed to modify its language, perhaps shifting its characterization on the economy from moderate to modest. It’s likely to downshift slightly its view on the labor market after say it’s “continued to improve” in the September statement. On inflation the Fed can reiterate it’s running below forecast, while market based measures have moved lower too. These factors put the FOMC in a difficult spot credibility-wise, especially those policymakers who are anxious to tighten now, as data are leaning to the contrary. Policymakers can’t be encouraged by the Q slowdown abroad either, and the more accommodative postures from the ECB, PBoC, and probably the BoJ, keep the Fed in a bind too.

Gold been relatively steady,

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
********


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[Forex3435]

Ye theek he bhari k hot forex min bhi kafi achi options mojod hin aur jo humin kafi profit de sakti he magar eisa he k main ne to kafi waqat se Instaforex.com pe hi work kiya he es lei main to deikhta hon k es min humin better options milti hin trading ki en min work kar k hum bara profit bhi bana leite hin aur sab se barh kar humin yahan se proper way min transaction ki bhi asani hoti he money ki.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th October 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD failed to hold above its weekly uptrend line on a clean break below the 1.11 resistance. Now that the 6 month uptrend-line has been lost, we need to see if the 1.0990 low, as seen last week, will be retested before price makes an attempt towards 1.11 and possible 1.1170 in a return move. Momentum analysis remains towards the downside, although, I would expect to see some short term buying interest if the Stochastic can create a bull cross near the Stch.Os. 20 line. My multi-day conclusion on EURUSD price action is for a retest of Friday’s low (1.0996) before a return move towards 1.11 –1.1170.

MACRO EVENTS & FX NEWS



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP U.K. Gross Domestic Product: U.K. GDP numbers for Q3, with the quarterly growth rate expected to slow to 0.6% (med same) from 0.7%.

• USD Durable Goods Orders: September durable goods data is out today and should reveal a 0.8% (median -1.0%) decline for orders on the month with shipments unchanged and inventories growing by 0.1%. This compares to respective August figures of -2.3% for orders, -0.2% for shipments and unchanged for inventories. Data in line with analyst forecast would leave the I/S ratio for the month at 1.66 from 1.65 in both August and July.

• USD Consumer Confidence: October Consumer Confidence is out today and should reveal a 104.0 (median 102.8) headline, up from 103.0 in September and 101.3 in August. Other confidence measures have improved in October with Michigan Sentiment rising to 92.1 from 87.2 and the IBD/TIPP Poll rising to 47.3 from 42.0.


FX News Today

Greek bailout payment delayed, Greece is once again behind in the implementation of the agreed reforms and so far only 14 of the 48 “milestones” have been implemented. A delay of the reform plan and the payout likely also means a delay in the reform of the banking and finance system, including the recapitalization of banks.

Commodities were on the defensive, but the CAD was range bound near 1.3160 since the open. The lack of price action came as oil prices were steady near $43.5 – $44.00 and as the risk backdrop remains quiet.

USDJPY given back some gains, the pair has gained considerable ground since last week, as the dovish ECB and the aggressive PBoC combined to rally the dollar broadly. With the China rate cut having many market players up the BoJ’s ante to add to QE this week, USD-JPY gains may well hold.

Gold been relatively steady,

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 22nd October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 22nd October 2015.



EURUSD, 240 min

The sideways move over the last three days has been a reflection of both market participants’ carefulness ahead of ECB meeting and the fact that the pair is trading between support and resistance levels. ECB leaders gather today in Malta and Mario Draghi will be speaking on European economy. We do not expect the ECB to announce new QE measures today. This expectation is in line with the analyst consensus. Inflation is below ECB target but Draghi has expressed satisfaction on increased lending in the Euro area. This suggests no need for new QE measures.

At the time of writing EURUSD is trading at a support created by previous pivot highs and 50% Fibonacci retracement. The 100 period SMA coincides with this support while the Stochastics Oscillator points to the pair being oversold in both the 4h and daily time frame. The last week’s bearish pin bar together with the upper weekly Bollinger Bands has been limiting the moves to the upside. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.1295 and 1.1388. The support can be found at 1.1260, a 61.8% Fibonacci level which coincides with 50 day SMA. Look for a move higher towards the 1.1388 resistance if no new QE promises or measures are introduced.

MACRO EVENTS & FX NEWS



Main Macro Events Today

[B]• ECB Rates Decision: ECB seen on hold, focus on presser. We expect the central bank to stay on hold today, as does the overwhelming majority of analysts in the latest Bloomberg survey, with only one expecting further easing measures already this week. This does not mean that an extension or expansion of the QE program will be off the table however and Draghi’s comments at the press conference will likely strike a fine balance between justifying the current wait and see stance and assuring markets that the ECB is ready and willing to act again if necessary. Comments suggest that the low inflation environment is once again becoming a concern and December, when the updated set of economic projections is due, will become a major focal point for a decision on additional steps.

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of October 17 is out today and should reveal an increase to 264k (median 265k) from 255k last week. We expect the average for October to be 270k from 269k in September. This supports our call for a 190k employment headline which would follow a 142k increase in September.

• US Existing Home Sales: September existing home sales data today should reveal a 1.7% increase to a 5.400 mln (median 5.350 mln) headline following a 5.310 mln August figure and 5.580 mln in July which set a high back to 2007. Other housing measures are coming in mixed for the month with the NAHB holding steady at 61 in September, starts rising to 1.206 mln but permits slowing to 1.103 mln.


FX News Today

French business confidence mixed, with the overall headline number unexpectedly rising to 101 from 100, but manufacturing confidence falling to 103 from 104 and the production outlook indicator slumping to 2 in October, while the September reading was revised down to 5 from 7 reported initially. The own company production outlook held up better, with the reading declining only slightly to 13 from 14 in the previous month, highlighting that concerns about global developments and the slowdown in emerging markets rather than actual weakness at company level are the main factors.

Bank of Canada Constructive on Growth as Forces Awaken. The Bank of Canada maintained the 0.50% setting for the overnight rate target, matching widespread expectations. While the growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were trimmed, the outlook remains constructive as the projected recovery in Canada’s economy takes hold. The return to full capacity was moved ahead to mid-2017 but Governor Poloz explained that the shift was within the range anticipated in July. The bank is comfortable with the current state of policy and the economy, content to remain on the sidelines as the forces unleashed by 50 basis points in rate cuts in the first half of this year continue to ease the adjustment to lower oil and commodity prices.

BoC Poloz praised the constructive evolution of the economy, answering a question on just how high the debt to income ratio can go. He noted that Canada does not have much experience with ratios this high, but that other countries run higher ratios (not that he’s saying higher ratios are ok, he added). But he is pleased the Bank identified the right forces in the economy when things were uncertain in January. Those forces continue to growth, he noted, and the constructive evolution gets the economy back to better growth. On the CAD, he said the currency has been moving roughly in-line with the terms of trade (ToT), which it has done historically. He noted that “roughly” comes with lots of advisement, as the zone around ToT movements is not trivial. Further solidifying his status as one of the most entertaining of the current crop of central bankers, he likened these moves to walking a dog with a stretchy leash — you get footprints (from the dog) that are not straight like a railroad track. His Q&A has ended.”

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 21st October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21st October 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

EURAUD Daily, the AUD has given back some recent gains against the majors over the last few trading sessions, leaving the outlook for the AUD to continue a narrow trade range as concerns about inflation subside, while commodities seek out a bottom. Technically, the Daily EURAUD observations include: bearish 10,50 SMA crossover spotted, price trades within a downward slopping trend channel, and stochastic oscillator indicates positive upward momentum. My conclusion for the Daily supports long positions with a price target near the 1.5840 inside swing area.





Main Macro Events Today



• Bank of Canada Rates Decision: No change is expected to the 0.50% rate setting in today’s announcement. Economic data has been consistent with a return to GDP growth in Q3 after the oil price shock left back to back erosion in Q1 and Q2. The Bank’s Q3 GDP estimate of 1.5% is destined for a substantial upward revision (we see a 3.0% gain) in the Monetary Policy Report. But reduced global and U.S. growth prospects promise to trim the 2.3% estimate for 2016 GDP (we see 2.2%). Hence, we expect the growth and inflation outlook to back expectations for no change in rates for an extended period.

• BOE’s Governor Carney speech. In today’s Speech Carney will comment on how Britain’s EU membership will impact the Bank of England’s ability to manage the economy and protect the banking sector.

FX News Today

Japan’s trade deficit narrowed 88.1% y/y to 114.5 bln JPY from a revised -569.4 bln JPY (was -569.7 bln JPY). Imports dropped 11.1% y/y, while exports edged up 0.6% y/y. The latter was the slowest pace in more than a year as shipments around Asia softened, with those to China dropping 3.5%. Exports to the U.S. were strong, however, up more than 10%, largely on autos and pharmaceuticals. On the month the deficit widened 4.8% with exports down 1.7% for a third straight decline, while imports fell 1.9%, a second consecutive monthly slide. The Nikkei is higher on the day as the trade data increases hopes for more stimulus.following a 0.5% gain in August.

Bund futures already recovered opening losses and are rising in tandem with Gilts and stock markets. Volatility has returned ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow. Japanese trade numbers boosted hopes of further stimulus in Japan and reminded European markets that even if the ECB continues to sit on the fence tomorrow, this doesn’t mean the end for an expansion of the QE program. Most analysts expect Draghi to announce a move in December.

• Canada’s election and the economy: The liberal majority victory provides some solace to a market that was prepared for a minority government and all the lack of certainty that vote by vote coalition gathering brings. Of course, a Trudeau majority victory brings a greater tolerance for Federal deficits. Harper ran deficits after 2009′s global upheaval but had been focused on bringing finances back to balance. Trudeau, in contrast, campaigned on running modest (C$10 bln) deficits for the next three years to finance infrastructure projects in a bid to boost Canada’s flagging economy. We would point out that the extended time lag between approval and actual construction typically precludes infrastructure “investment” from having any impact on the economy in the near-term. Meanwhile, Trudeau plans to fund tax cuts for middle income earners by raising taxes on the top 1%. As for the corporate tax rate, Trudeau said during the campaign that the current 15% is “fine.”

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th October 2015.



AUDUSD, Daily

AUDUSD 5-day change is lower against other major currencies in what seems to be a pause in the recent price rally from the September 29th low (0.6936) to the Oct 12th high (.7380). Daily technical observations spots a bullish 10,50 SMA cross, consecutive higher tops and bottoms on price from September 4th � October 12th (0.69 L / .7380 H ) and the fact that current price is trading above the 10,50 SMA brings me to the conclusion that price remains in a short term uptrend. If today�s low on price holds above the 0.7230 area this could create a lower top above last week�s low (0.72) that may open up the way towards 0.7380; my ultimate short term price objective near 0.7440. However, traders should be on alert for any break below the 0.72 support that may support a deeper price retracement from the September Low to October�s current high with relevant support in this case spotted around the 0.71-0.7110′s.





GBPAUD, Weekly

GBPAUD weekly chart analysis, price touched a six year high at 2.24 late August and since has made a series of lower tops on price. Current price is trading below both the tentative downward slopping trend line, and the 10 period SMA. Stochastic oscillator analysis spots a bullish cross below the 20 line indicating a possible pause in the current downward price direction. My conclusion for the weekly chart trader is to sell into any strength higher up from current price, ideally near the 2.14 area for a 2.03 target.

FXPAIR : GBPAUD
SUPPORTS: 2.03
RESISTANCES: 2.24




ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD



Main Macro Events This Week

* United States: Housing releases dominate the economic calendar. The sector has disappointed with relatively moderate growth despite the improved job market and still low mortgage rates. This week�s reports aren�t likely to alter that assessment. The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index (Today) is projected steady at 62 in October, the best level since 2005. September housing starts (Tuesday) are seen edging up to a 1.130 mln pace, rebounding from a 7.1% cumulative decline in July and August. Existing home sales for September (Thursday) are projected rising 1.7% to a 5.40 mln clip to unwind part of the 4.8% August drop. The August FHFA home price index (Thursday) and weekly MBA mortgage numbers (Wednesday) are also slated. The only other report of note is the flash Markit manufacturing PMI for October. Chair Yellen (Tuesday) will give brief welcome remarks at a Labor Department event. Governor Brainard (Today) will discuss removing unnecessary regulation. Dudley and Powell (Tuesday) are speaking at a money market conference. And Governor Powell will also speak on market liquidity.

* Canada: The Canadian calendar is highlighted by the Bank of Canada�s rate announcement (Wednesday) and the Monetary Policy Report. We expect no change to the current 0.50% setting, alongside a cautiously constructive outlook for growth and inflation that is supportive of no change in rates for an extended period. The Federal election will be held today. As for economic data, the September CPI is seen slowing to a 1.2% y/y pace, but with a flat month comparable reading as a drop in gasoline prices competes with the typical seasonal jump in clothing prices. The Bank of Canada�s core CPI is expected to nudge higher to a 2.2% y/y rate in September following the 2.1% clip in August. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in August after the 0.5% gain in July. Wholesale shipments (Tuesday) are seen rising 0.3% in August after the flat reading in July.

* Europe: All eyes will be on the ECB this week. Eurozone inflation is back in negative territory and uncertainty about the global growth outlook is rising, which is putting intense pressure on Draghi to extend or expand the QE program. However, the ECB has already provided an unprecedented amount of stimulus and the measures have eased credit conditions and bolstered confidence. Inflation is expected to pick up again toward the end of the year and with domestic demand robust, we don�t see the risk of a deflationary spiral. What the Eurozone needs are structural reforms, not an ever-easy policy stance. And in this situation, Draghi is likely to maintain the wait and see approach, at least for now, although his comments are likely to be sufficiently dovish to keep markets happy, even if a steady hand policy will likely disappoint some and push up yields, at least temporarily. The economic calendar this week focuses on preliminary PMI readings for October (Friday), which we expect to show a further slowdown in the pace of expansion in both services and manufacturing. The EMU�s manufacturing reading is seen falling to 51.7 from 52.0 and the services reading to 53.4 from 53.6 in the previous month. Preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence numbers for October are also expected to head south with growing concerns about the global growth outlook starting to spook consumers. The Eurozone also has BoP and current account data, Italian orders numbers and German PPI inflation.

* United Kingdom: The week ahead is pretty quiet, which will leave the focus of sterling markets on external data and developments and Chinese growth data. UK government borrowing (Wednesday) is the first data of note, followed by official retail sales data for September (Thursday).

* China: Growth was expected to slow to a 6.5% y/y pace, from the 7.0% clip seen in Q1 and Q2 but came in at 6.9%. The figure fell short of the 7.0% official forecast, but was so slight that the damage on global market sentiment remained negligible. Even the bigger drop was not expected to weigh on stocks due to the �good news is bad news� psychology and hopes of more PBoC stimulus. The better than expected data may not help sentiment much though, as the Chinese data are often viewed to be doctored. September industrial production (Today) is forecast to dip to 6.0% y/y from 6.2% in August. September retail sales (Today) are penciled in at 10.7% y/y gain, down slightly from the prior 10.8% outcome.

* Japan: In Japan, the September trade report (Wednesday) also is eagerly awaited for growth insights though balance is likely to be impacted significantly by weakness in imports (y/y) amid low energy prices. Indeed, the JPY 569.4 bln August deficit is expected to reverse sharply to a surplus of JPY 50 bln. The pace of export growth is seen holding steady, though the increasingly sluggish growth in the region may limit exports as well. The August all-industry index (Wednesday) is expected to fall 0.4% m/m, as compared to the prior 0.2% gain.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th October 2015.



AUDUSD, Daily

AUDUSD 5-day change is lower against other major currencies in what seems to be a pause in the recent price rally from the September 29th low (0.6936) to the Oct 12th high (.7380). Daily technical observations spots a bullish 10,50 SMA cross, consecutive higher tops and bottoms on price from September 4th – October 12th (0.69 L / .7380 H ) and the fact that current price is trading above the 10,50 SMA brings me to the conclusion that price remains in a short term uptrend. If today’s low on price holds above the 0.7230 area this could create a lower top above last week’s low (0.72) that may open up the way towards 0.7380; my ultimate short term price objective near 0.7440. However, traders should be on alert for any break below the 0.72 support that may support a deeper price retracement from the September Low to October’s current high with relevant support in this case spotted around the 0.71-0.7110′s.





GBPAUD, Weekly

GBPAUD weekly chart analysis, price touched a six year high at 2.24 late August and since has made a series of lower tops on price. Current price is trading below both the tentative downward slopping trend line, and the 10 period SMA. Stochastic oscillator analysis spots a bullish cross below the 20 line indicating a possible pause in the current downward price direction. My conclusion for the weekly chart trader is to sell into any strength higher up from current price, ideally near the 2.14 area for a 2.03 target.

FXPAIR : GBPAUD
SUPPORTS: 2.03
RESISTANCES: 2.24




ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD



Main Macro Events This Week

* United States: Housing releases dominate the economic calendar. The sector has disappointed with relatively moderate growth despite the improved job market and still low mortgage rates. This week’s reports aren’t likely to alter that assessment. The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index (Today) is projected steady at 62 in October, the best level since 2005. September housing starts (Tuesday) are seen edging up to a 1.130 mln pace, rebounding from a 7.1% cumulative decline in July and August. Existing home sales for September (Thursday) are projected rising 1.7% to a 5.40 mln clip to unwind part of the 4.8% August drop. The August FHFA home price index (Thursday) and weekly MBA mortgage numbers (Wednesday) are also slated. The only other report of note is the flash Markit manufacturing PMI for October. Chair Yellen (Tuesday) will give brief welcome remarks at a Labor Department event. Governor Brainard (Today) will discuss removing unnecessary regulation. Dudley and Powell (Tuesday) are speaking at a money market conference. And Governor Powell will also speak on market liquidity.

* Canada: The Canadian calendar is highlighted by the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement (Wednesday) and the Monetary Policy Report. We expect no change to the current 0.50% setting, alongside a cautiously constructive outlook for growth and inflation that is supportive of no change in rates for an extended period. The Federal election will be held today. As for economic data, the September CPI is seen slowing to a 1.2% y/y pace, but with a flat month comparable reading as a drop in gasoline prices competes with the typical seasonal jump in clothing prices. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI is expected to nudge higher to a 2.2% y/y rate in September following the 2.1% clip in August. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in August after the 0.5% gain in July. Wholesale shipments (Tuesday) are seen rising 0.3% in August after the flat reading in July.

* Europe: All eyes will be on the ECB this week. Eurozone inflation is back in negative territory and uncertainty about the global growth outlook is rising, which is putting intense pressure on Draghi to extend or expand the QE program. However, the ECB has already provided an unprecedented amount of stimulus and the measures have eased credit conditions and bolstered confidence. Inflation is expected to pick up again toward the end of the year and with domestic demand robust, we don’t see the risk of a deflationary spiral. What the Eurozone needs are structural reforms, not an ever-easy policy stance. And in this situation, Draghi is likely to maintain the wait and see approach, at least for now, although his comments are likely to be sufficiently dovish to keep markets happy, even if a steady hand policy will likely disappoint some and push up yields, at least temporarily. The economic calendar this week focuses on preliminary PMI readings for October (Friday), which we expect to show a further slowdown in the pace of expansion in both services and manufacturing. The EMU’s manufacturing reading is seen falling to 51.7 from 52.0 and the services reading to 53.4 from 53.6 in the previous month. Preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence numbers for October are also expected to head south with growing concerns about the global growth outlook starting to spook consumers. The Eurozone also has BoP and current account data, Italian orders numbers and German PPI inflation.

* United Kingdom: The week ahead is pretty quiet, which will leave the focus of sterling markets on external data and developments and Chinese growth data. UK government borrowing (Wednesday) is the first data of note, followed by official retail sales data for September (Thursday).

* China: Growth was expected to slow to a 6.5% y/y pace, from the 7.0% clip seen in Q1 and Q2 but came in at 6.9%. The figure fell short of the 7.0% official forecast, but was so slight that the damage on global market sentiment remained negligible. Even the bigger drop was not expected to weigh on stocks due to the “good news is bad news” psychology and hopes of more PBoC stimulus. The better than expected data may not help sentiment much though, as the Chinese data are often viewed to be doctored. September industrial production (Today) is forecast to dip to 6.0% y/y from 6.2% in August. September retail sales (Today) are penciled in at 10.7% y/y gain, down slightly from the prior 10.8% outcome.

* Japan: In Japan, the September trade report (Wednesday) also is eagerly awaited for growth insights though balance is likely to be impacted significantly by weakness in imports (y/y) amid low energy prices. Indeed, the JPY 569.4 bln August deficit is expected to reverse sharply to a surplus of JPY 50 bln. The pace of export growth is seen holding steady, though the increasingly sluggish growth in the region may limit exports as well. The August all-industry index (Wednesday) is expected to fall 0.4% m/m, as compared to the prior 0.2% gain.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.