Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 29th December 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 29th December 2015.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS


FX News Today

The USD majors continued to trade in narrow ranges, strong stock markets in Asia coupled with a recent rebound in diary prices have helped underpin the New Zealand dollar, the NZD continues it�s multi-week rally against the USD gaining nearly 450 pips since mid November. The EURUSD, meanwhile, remained in the mid-1.09s, below yesterdays near two week high at 1.0992, and USDJPY has remained above yesterday�s two-month low at 120.16.

The European calendar is once again very quiet, with only Italian consumer and business confidence numbers of note. There remains little data on tap from the Central Banks as we move closer to the end of 2015.

U.S. calendar has the trade in goods, home price index, and consumer confidence, the focus will be on the Consumer Confidence report.

Asian markets moved higher, with banks leading stocks to the eighth straight day of gains, at the time of writing U.S. stock futures are in positive territory.

Oil prices are slightly higher, with USOil trading just under the 37 per barrel mark.

Main Macro Events Today

� USD U.S. Consumer Confidence: December consumer confidence is out later today and analyst expect to see a headline increase to 94.0 from 90.4 in November. Along side the headline, analyst expect current conditions t o rise to 110.0 from 108.1 and current conditions to improve to 83.4 from 78.6.Michigan Sentiment improved in December with a climb to 92.6 as of it�s second release from 91.3 in November and the IBD/TIPP poll rose to 47.2 from 45.5.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 24th December 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 24th December 2015.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS


FX News Today

The U.S. markets will be closing early today, ahead of Christmas Day and trading should be limited. The U.S. stock markets have enjoyed 3 straight day�s of gains in the usually end of year rally. Stock markets have been partly supported by the nearly 4% gains seen in the price of U.S. Oil, with Crude prices clearing to the upside of $37.00, following news that EIA crude inventories plunged 5.88 mln bbls compared to a Reuters forecast of a 1.1 mln build (6.98 mln bbl difference). The only U.S. data report today is weekly jobless claims, expected to edge up 1k to 272k.

U.S. economic reports revealed slightly encouraging personal income data and an upside durable orders surprise.

European markets will be quiet today. The German market has already closed for Christmas, while the U.K. market will be closed on Monday for Boxing Day. The only data on the agenda is from the U.K. with BBA mortgage approvals.

The GBP has been preforming today, rising against the USD. The pound�s run higher following a near two-week period of notable under-performance as markets scaled back BoE tightening expectations. Cable has been posting gains with markets shrugging off an unexpected downward revision lower in final UK Q3 GDP data for the last two trading sessions in what continues to be a technical bounce.

The EURUSD dipped under 1.0950, which roughly marks the 50% retracement of the rally from last week�s 1.0800 low. The USDJPY broke to the downside of the 120.60 support.

Main Macro Events Today

� JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Reveled slow wage and capital expenditure growth are areas of concern but were optimistic that companies will start to boost spending once emerging economies improved. The BOJ kept policy steady since October, betting that companies will use their profits to lift wages and capital expenditure and help kick off a positive economic cycle. The Nov. 18-19 rate review, the BOJ board discussed why companies were slow to respond. Companies probably felt their current record profits were due to temporary factors like the weak yen and low energy costs, and weren�t convinced that earnings would remain strong in the future, the minutes showed. At the time of writing the JPY is sharply stronger vs the USD with the USDJPY pair down around 50 pips for the session.

� EUR German Bank Holiday:

� USD Unemployment Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 272k (median 270k) in the week-ended December 19. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,232k for the week-ended December 12. Forecast risk: upward, as holiday hiring could hold down claims. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could slow the path of rate hikes.

� NZD Bank Holiday:

� AUD Bank Holiday:


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 22nd December 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 22nd December 2015.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS


FX News Today

German and U.K. GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved with the EURUSD seeing a minor rally from lows under 1.0850 to near 1.0940 in Monday�s trade. However, price still remains below the 10 day moving average. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD price trades just above the 1.4880 support level at the time of writing.

Crude oil prices remain fragile in the face of unrelenting supply; USOil price is trading higher today with prices just under $36 at the time of writing, the lower USD this morning has supported oil prices.

Gold has been moving higher as a softer U.S. dollar activated short covering. Global stock markets are mixed with strong gains in the U.S., Japan�s Nikkei 225 closing slightly lower, while European stock exchanges closing lower by 1%+. Asian stock markets have closed mostly higher, as U.S. and U.K. stock futures did. This points to gains on European markets at the open after the Monday European market sell off, as the traditional Christmas rally continues.

The U.S. calendar data reports today aren�t likely to have much impact, as attention turns to Christmas and the New Year holidays.

Main Macro Events Today

� U.S. Richmond Manufacturing Index: Analyst expect an improvement to 0.0 from -3.0 in November. The Empire State and Philly Fed are already out and showed mixed headline performance which would indicate another month of depressed sentiment.

� USD Final GDP: Analyst expect Q3 GDP to be revised down to 1.8% from 2.1% in the final report, following 3.9% growth in Q2. Forecast risk: downward, given the huge inventory boost that is being unwound with data revisions. Market risk: downward, as weakness may delay Fed tightening assumptions for 2016.Inventories are expected to be revised down by $10 bln.

� USD Housing Price Index: Analyst expect existing home sales to rise 0.7% to a 5.400 mln unit rate in November following the 3.4% October decrease to 5.360 mln units. Forecast risk: downward, as NAHB declined in November. Market risk: downward, as a run of weaker data could impact rate hike time lines. The pending home sales index should grow by 0.3%.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

---------- Post added 12-23-2015 at 12:58 PM ---------- Previous post was 12-22-2015 at 02:52 PM ----------

Date : 23rd December 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 23rd December 2015.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS


FX News Today

Today�s trading session will be quiet, as Japanese markets are closed to celebrate the Emperor�s Birthday. We may see some activity around the CAD later today upon the release of the Canadian Core Retail Sales and GDP data. In over night trading, Asian equity markets closed the session mostly higher, while U.S. stocks charged higher posting gains of nearly 1% for the session.

The major USD currency pairs continued to lack direction without any market catalyst on tab to jolt the USD in any meaningful direction. EURUSD remains in a tight range within the 1.09s after marking a one week high near 1.0980's yesterday. USDJPY also appears to be in a narrowly range around 121.00 for a third day, with the sharp volatility seen in the wake of last Friday�s BoJ policy fading away.

Industrial metals and oil prices have been moving higher, as investors� confidence about the growth prospects in the U.S. and China increases.

Main Macro Events Today

� JPY Japan : Bank Holiday

� GBP United Kingdom Final GDP: Q3 expected to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q and 2.3% y/y

� CAD Core Retail Sales: Analyst expect retail sales values, due later today, to improve 0.8% in October (median 0.6%) following the 0.5% drop in September. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected to gain 0.5% m/m in October (median +0.5%) after the 0.5% pull-back in September. Gasoline prices fell 2.0% m/m in October, a comparatively modest pull-back compared to the 7.9% plunge in September according to the CPI. Hence, we should see an only modest drag from gas station sales on total and ex-autos sales. Moreover, gasoline prices remain very low relative to a year ago, which could continue to underpin spending along with low interest rates. Vehicle sales were firm through November, which should be supportive of total sales in both October and November.

� CAD October GDP: Analyst expect GDP, due Wednesday, to rise 0.2% in October (median +0.3%) after the 0.5% plunge in September. The projection is driven by an expected boost from the return to production of an oil sands producer that was off-line due to fire in September. That boost is seen offsetting drags from manufacturing, wholesale and housing. But the expected boost from the oil sand producer could be tempered by temporary closures at other refineries (notably Irving Oil in St. John).

� U.S. Durable Goods: November durable goods data is out Wednesday and should reveal a 1.5% (median -0.7%) decline in orders for the month with inventories and sales both remaining unchanged in November. This follows respective October figures of 2.9% for orders with shipments down 1.0% and inventories down 0.3%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.65 from October.

� U.S. Personal Income: November personal income is out Wednesday and analyst expect a 0.3% (median 0.2%) increase in headline income with consumption up 0.3% (median 0.3%) as well. This would follow October figures of 0.4% for income and 0.1% for consumption which prompted a bounce in the savings rate to 5.6% from 5.3% in September. For price data analyst expect the PCE Chain Price Index to remain unchanged with the core up 0.2%, matching the November CPI figures.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 16th December 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 16th December 2015.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

Today�s main event is the long awaited U.S. Interest Rate Decision. My view is that the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates today. I believe that the Fed understands that if they fail to hike today, the U.S. Fed�s credibility will most certainly be challenged. Let�s not forget that the U.S. Fed has been holding the markets hostage for many months, thereby creating a large amount of uncertainty in the markets with constant talk about the pending interest rate adjustment higher, only to disappoint the markets with no action during the previous meetings. Today�s �potential� rate hike will open the door, in my opinion, for further rate hikes over the coming year. Most professional traders are very aware of this fact and have already been adjusting positions accordingly.

In overnight stock market trading and ahead of today�s important U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision, global stock markets surged higher, with solid gains in Asian, Europe and Wall Street yesterday. The �pending� increase in U.S. Dollar borrowing cost is viewed by the stock markets as a net positive that the economy is healthy and that growth will continue to follow despite the higher cost of borrowing.

So far today, the USD has consolidated yesterday�s gains, after core CPI data out of the U.S. provided a final conformation of market expectations for the Fed to deliver a long-awaited rate hike later today.

The general market mode for today, I would see it as swinging between �risk-on� and �risk-off� as traders jockey for positions, with high volatility especially during the U.S. FOMC Press Conference scheduled for later tonight at 7:30PM GMT. The heavy price action will be around the FOMC Economic Projections, the FOMC Statement followed by the FOMC Press Conference. Traders will have a long night of trading with plenty of action expected. I wish you all good luck on this historic trading day!

Main Macro Events Today

� EUR CPI data: the final reading of CPI data for November, which should confirm the headline rate at 0.1% y/y (med same) and core inflation at 0.9% y/y. The decline in oil prices remains the main factor weighing on CPI, although core inflation also eased slightly last month, as the drop in basic goods prices is feeding through the production chain. Still, the ECB already reacted to this by easing policy further and ECB�s Coeure said deflation risks are off the table now with the latest set of measures, so the numbers won�t change the policy outlook.

� USD U.S. Industrial Production: November industrial production is out on today and should reveal a 0.2% (median -0.2%) decline which would mark the third strait month of 0.2% drops. Despite the firm November employment report there is some downside risk to industrial production as factory employment declined by 1k and mining employment was down by 11k for the month. We expect capacity utilization at 77.3% (median 77.4%) from 77.5% in October.

� USD U.S. Housing Starts: November housing starts are out today and analyst expect a 1,130k (median 1,133k) headline following a 1,060k headline in October which marked an 11.0% decline from September. Analyst expect permits at 1,150k from 1,161k and completions should rise to 1,000k from 965k in October. The warmer weather through November should lend some upside risk to the release despite the slow down in the already released November NAHB which declined to 62 from 65 in October.

� USD Interest Rate Decision: FOMC made two key changes in the policy statement that put a Fed hike on the table for today, even as it left rates unchanged in October. Fed removed the comment from the September statement that �recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat� and replaced it with �monitoring� developments. Also said �in determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting� Those two changes reversed the dovishness from the September meeting and ostensibly reduced the concerns over the slowdown in China that Chair Yellen mentioned in her presser Statement somewhat at odds with slowing in recent data, however, but acknowledged job gains had slowed while unemployment rate held steady Inflation continues to run the below the Committee�s long run target.



Over the last five trading days and ahead of the build-up towards the U.S. Interest Rate decision, money is seen flowing into the USD. The U.S. buck has held firmer against the JPY, AUD, GBP, CAD, EUR, NZD and the CHF amid the backdrop of strong global stock markets and the fact that the U.S. Fed is widely expected to start the rate lift-off today.

The GBP suffers losses across the board as the latest data from the United Kingdom indicates that the BoE will not make a move to hike the GBP cost of borrowing until possibly 2017. Also, the fact that the BoE worries about a possible rate rise by the Fed today, will put upward pressure on GBP. For the moment, the market will be pricing in an evidentially BoE rate hike after the Fed opens the door first.

The AUD has underperformed since Australia remains vulnerable to the weakness in the global commodities markets.



GBPUSD, Daily (Updated)

The GBP has been trading lower in the initial wake of last week�s December BoE meeting which showed the Monetary Policy Committee was focusing on the recent decline in nominal pay growth, which was taken by markets as a dovish shift in the BoE�s thinking, in turn reducing expectations for BoE rate rift-off anytime soon.

Technically, I remain bearish on GBP against the USD in the current macro environment with my technical short term price targets for the GBPUSD at 1.4955 (S1) with a possible test of the April 20th lows near 1.4890 (S2).

FX Pair : GBPUSD
Supports : 104955
Resistances : 1.53



AUDUSD Daily, (Updated)

The minutes to the RBA�s early-December policy review reaffirmed the view that the central bank is increasingly comfortable with the economic prognosis. Notably the RBA dropped �members judged that monetary policy needed to be accommodative,� although it maintained that the inflation outlook �may afford some scope for a further easing of monetary policy� if needed.

Technically, the AUDUSD is at risk of further medium-term losses, Monday�s drop has so far failed to hold, a price bounce from .716 could leave a lower top near the .7230′s ahead of a breakdown towards .7070 area.

FX Pair : AUDUSD
Supports : 0.7180/0.7070
Resistances : 0.7360/0.7450

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 14th December 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 14th December 2015.

GBPUSD UPDATE, DOWNSIDE PRESSURE REMAINS


GBPUSD, Daily

The GBP is under pressure ahead of this week�s U.S. FOMC interest rate decision that could provide continued uplift for the USD against the GBP. I would expect some GBPUSD choppy trading as we move closer to Wednesday since also on tap we have some key U.K. data that, if disappoints, could support a Bank of England interest rate hike delay, which in turn could provide some further support for GBPUSD short sellers. I would expect the GBPUSD to remain biased to the downside against the USD in the current macro environment with my technical medium term price targets for the GBPUSD at 1.4955 (S1) with a possible test of the April 20th lows near 1.4890 (S2).


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 11th December 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 11th December 2015.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS


FX News Today

German Nov HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.3% y/y, as expected. The national rate was steady at 0.4% y/y and the CPI rate excluding energy fell back marginally to 1.3% y/y from 1.4% y/y. The sharp difference between headline inflation and the ex-energy figure highlights, however, once again that lower energy prices are the main driven behind the weak numbers, which also means the risk of a real deflationary spiral is limited.

Both BoE and SNB left policy unchanged at yesterday�s council meeting, as expected. The BoE is still eying a rate hike, but is clearly in no hurry, and if anything the statement was a tad more dovish than the November inflation report. The SNB meanwhile remains ready to intervene on currency markets if necessary. The BoE minutes, released at the same time, showed an 8-1 majority in favour of steady policy, with McCafferty continuing his dissent in favour of a rate hike. The vote to maintain the stock of purchased assets at GBP 375 bln was taken unanimously, as in the last meeting. The BoE�s November inflation report was already a tad more dovish and the MPC said today that the risks to the view back then that �if Bank Rate were to follow the gently rising path implied by the prevailing market yields then inflation would exceed slightly the 2% target in two years and then rise further above it�, lie a little to the downside in the first two years. This means under the implied gentle tightening path inflation may no longer exceed target in two years� time, but not necessarily that it won�t reach the target.

US reports revealed the expected big trade price hits from commodity prices in November before likely bigger declines in December, with broad-based price drops beyond commodities, and particular weakness in export prices. We also saw a 13k initial claims rise to 282k in the first week of December that extended the 9k bounce to 269k in the Thanksgiving week of November. The sharp 22k two-week climb for claims raises the stakes for next week�s report, though for now the rise can be attributed to holiday volatility. We still expect a 200k December payroll rise that undershoots big recent gains of 211k in November and 298k i n October as well as the 210k average year-to-date gain for 2015, but that beats the 174k Q3 average monthly gain.

Main Macro Events Today

� US Retail Sales: November retail sales are out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline with a 0.3% (median 0.3%) increase ex-autos. This follows October figures of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Despite the firm auto sales data for November, retail sales are facing headwinds from the decline in gasoline prices and a drop in construction hours worked as we discussed in Monday�s commentary.

� US PPI: November PPI should reveal a 0.1% (median unchanged) headline with a 0.1% (median 0.1%) increase for the core. This should bring the y/y figure to -1.2% from -1.6% in October which set a new recent low. Declines in oil prices over the past year have acted to hold down most inflation measures.

� US Business Inventories: October business inventories should come in unchanged (median 0.1%) headline for inventories with shipments for the month down 0.2%. This follows respective September figures of 0.3% for inventories and unchanged for September. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio at 1.38, steady from September.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 10th December 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 10th December 2015.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS


FX News Today

Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates to 2.50% from 2.75%. The rate cut was widely anticipated. The reduction in the official cash rate as “monetary policy need to be accommodative to help ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range,” Governor Wheeler said. He expects this can be accomplished at the current rate setting, but assured the bank will reduce rates further if needed. On the exchange rate, he said the recent rise in the value of the New Zealand dollar has been “unhelpful and further depreciation would be appropriate in order to support sustainable growth.”

Japan’s PPI improved to a 3.6% y/y rate of decline in November from -3.8% in October. Granted, that is still troublesome for the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy, but at least the rate of decline did not worsen. The PPI fell 0.1% m/m in November after the 0.6% plunge in November.

Australia employment surged 71.4k in November after the revised 56.1k gain in October (was +58.6k). The hefty gain in November, which was the largest one month gain since July of 2000, contrasted with expectations for a modest dip following the sizable rise in October. Full time jobs grew 41.6k in November after the 38.4k rise in October (was +40.0k). Part time jobs rose 29.7k after a 17.7k gain (was +18.6k). The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in November from 5.9% while the participation rate rose to 65.3% in November from 65.0%. Two consecutive months of stellar job growth confirms that the RBA’s stimulus efforts are working. Moreover, it trims prospects for further cuts from the RBA next year. We see no change for an extended period. AUD-USD shot higher to the 0.7300 area from 0.7250 ahead of the report.

Main Macro Events Today

• SNB Rate Decision: The SNB was in luck and Draghi didn’t quite deliver the bazooka markets had been hoping for, which meant market reaction didn’t go quite according to plan and this gives the SNB some time to watch how things develop. That doesn’t mean, there couldn’t be further easing outside a policy setting meeting if there is fresh upward pressure on the currency.

• BoE Rate Decision: No change is expected in the Bank of England’s 0.5% rate policy.

• Canada Capacity Utilization: We expect the capacity use rate, due Thursday, to recover to 82.0% in Q3 (median 82.1%) from 81.3% in Q2. The anticipated improvement tracks the 2.3% rebound in Q3 GDP after the 0.3% drop in Q2 and the 0.7% pull-back in Q1.

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Initial claims data for the week of December 5 are out today and should show claims at 268k (median 267k) for the week, down from 269k in the week prior but above the 260k reading before that. Despite improvements in claims data we tend to see increased volatility around the holiday season which accounts for some of the increase in the November average to 269k. We expect a December average of 266k which compares to our forecast for nonfarm payrolls of 190k for the month.3

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[danish555]

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[HFblogNews]

Date : 8th December 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 8th December 2015.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS

FX News Today

Asian stock markets are sharply down and Australian bonds posted the sharpest gains since July, as China’s exports fell for a fifth month and a sharper than expected decline in foreign exchange reserves fuelled fears about the health of the Chinese economy. Oil prices are little changed and close to the lowest level since 2009. U.S. stock futures are also lower, but U.K. stock futures are managing slight gains. Eurozone markets stabilized yesterday, with yields coming off and the DAX bouncing back from the sharp losses seen in the wake of last week’s ECB meeting. Released overnight, U.K. BRC retail sales came in much weaker than expected and should support bond futures. The calendar also has U.K. production and the final reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP.

China’s Exports fell 6.8% y/y in November, while the analysts expected for 5.0% contraction. Trade surplus narrowed to $54.1 bln in November,contrary to expectations for an increase relative to the $61.6 bln surplus in October. Exports fell 6.8% y/y in November after the 6.9% drop in October. Imports contracted at a 8.7% y/y clip in November following the 18.8% pull-back in October. The report confirms the ongoing challenges for China’s trade outlook. China’s equities are lower, with the Shanghai Composite down 1.5%. The Nikkei is down 1.0%, while the Hang Seng is off 1.7%, as Asia’s stock markets key off the declines in the US

Japan’s real GDP was revised to a 1.0% gain in Q3 (q/q, saar) from the previous 0.8% drop. An upward revision was expected, but to a very modest gain. Hence, Japan’s economy did not fall into recession after all, with contraction confined to the revised 0.5% drop in Q2 (was -0.7%). Capital spending was revised to a 0.6% gain in Q3 from the initial 1.3% drop. The improvement in Q3 growth, notably the gain in capital spending, trims the chance that the BoJ will implement further stimulus early next year. The yen is little changed, with USD-JPY holding in the 123.3 region.

US consumer credit rose $16.0 bln in Octoberafter surging $28.6 bln in September (revised from $28.9 bln), with the August increase nudged down to $14.6 bln from $16.0 bln. Non-revolving credit continued to lead the strength, rising $15.8 bln versus the $21.9 bln jump previously (revised from $22.2 bln). Revolving credit was up $0.2 bln versus September’s $6.7 bln gain.

Main Macro Events Today

• EU GDP: The final reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP is out today and should confirm growth rates of 0.3% q/q and 1.6% y/y, with the breakdown expected to show that growth remains driven by consumption and domestic demand..

• Canada Housing Permits: are released today and are seen dipping 1.0% in October after the 6.7% tumble in September and 3.6% pull-back in August.

• BoC Governor: The Bank Of Canada governor Poloz will be speaking today on “The Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policy. The most recent policy announcement remained cautiously optimistic regarding the expected recovery in growth and acceleration in underlying inflation through 2017.



Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

---------- Post added at 01:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:52 PM ----------

Date : 9th December 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th December 2015.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS


FX News Today

German trade surplus continues to widen.Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 20.7 bln in October, up from EUR 19.2 bln in the previous month, as exports declined 1.2% m/m, which was counterbalanced by a 3.4% m/m drop in imports. Import numbers have been very volatile and as this is nominal data also driven by exchange rate and especially oil price developments. Unadjusted data show a trade surplus of EUR 208.8 bln in the first 10 months of hteyear, up from EUR 177.8 bln in the corresponding period 2014. The current account surplus widened to EUR 199.5 bln in the January to October period from EUR 168.8 bln last year. So Germany is likely to remain under attack for its widening trade surplus, despite the fact that for once overall growth is actually driven largely by consumption and domestic demand.

China’s CPI grew at a 1.5% y/y pace in November, slightly better than expected following the 1.3% y/y clip in October. The annual CPI growth rate had been slowing since seeing a year high 2.0% y/y rate in August (September was +1.6% y/y), and the pick-up in November suggests government stimulus efforts may have provided some lift to demand. The PPI fell 5.9% y/y in November, matching the rate of decline in October. China’s stocks are unchanged, while the Nikkei is down 1.1% and the Hang Seng is off 0.7%.

BoC Poloz downplayed the September GDP plunge, noting that it was driven by special factors. Notably, there was a fire in the oil sands that shut-down some production. That production was back on line in October, he noted. As for Q3, he reminded that the Bank projected it would be “puffed-up” by special factors, notably the child tax credit. Moreover, the weak hand-off to Q4 was also anticipated. They will review the Q4 projection for the January MPR. He reminded that “data do not go in a straight line.” These comments were consistent with his ongoing view that the economy is evolving roughly as they expected in October. In a separate answer, he counseled patience, saying that only half the impact of the policy action this year has been seen. Poloz shot down drawing any conclusion for the discussion of unconventional policy in today’s prepared remarks. “There is no need to contemplate these measures,” he said. He said all the ingredients for Canada’s recovery are in place. “We are not talking about doing that (lowering rates to the lower bound), we are making sure our tool kit is up to date,” he said. He said the bank would use unconventional again in the case of a major shock, such as was seen in 2008. On the growth trajectory, he added that “like we said last week and in October, the pieces are coming together.”

US JOLTS job openings fell 151k in October to 5,383k, following September’s 157k rebound (revised from 149k). That caused the rate to dip to 3.6% from 3.7%. Hiring rose 57k to 5,137k after declining 1k previously (revised from -32k). The rate was unchanged at 3.6% (September was revised up from 3.5%). Quitters rebounded 52k in September after falling 44k previously (revised from -51k). The quit rate was steady at 1.9%. The data are on the old side and won’t impact the FOMC, especially as the November jobs data revealed a solid round of numbers.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Wholesale Trade: October wholesale trade data is out today and should show sales up 0.5% (median 0.3%) following a 0.8% drop in August. Inventories should be down 0.1% following a 0.5% addition in September. Data in line with these forecasts would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.31 for a third month from August.

• RBNZ rate decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut the official cash rate today to 2.5% from 2.75% after the governor Wheeler repeated his comment that “some further easing in the OCR seemes likely”. However, as mentioned this is not the first time the governor says this.




Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 4th December 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 4th December 2015.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

Yesterday was a historic trading day for EUR traders in the wake of the ECB’s and Mario Draghi’s surprise move that disappointed the EUR short sellers in the market, after the ECB cut the deposit rate by just 10 basis points when the market had priced in at least a 20 basis point cut. High EURUSD price action after the disappointing announcement likely blew up short sellers as the pair surged higher by 450+ pips on the day.

EURUSD short sellers will be further tested today as today’s U.S. jobs report could offer some more surprises. A stronger NFP number could flip some of EURUSD recent gains, however on the other side of the trade, if we see a big NFP drop off, we could quickly see a EURUSD pop the late October’s levels near 1. 1100.

The EUR gets a bit of further support today as the German manufacturing orders at the start of the session came in much higher than anticipated at 1.8% m/m and September data were revised sharply higher.

Fed Chair Yellen finished her JEC testimony on policy without adding anything new. She repeated several times that the economy is growing and the labor market is near full employment. Liftoff went on to say, also doesn’t mean the FOMC is embarking on a pre-determined course, and added, the trajectory will be ****ual. So it looks as though it’s all systems go for a small hike.

Asian stock markets are down across the board, following on from heavy losses in the U.S. and especially the Eurozone, as Draghi’s package of easing measures fell short of expectations.

The weaker USD drove up oil prices though short covering ahead of today’s OPEC meeting has been viewed as the culprit. A lack of agreement on production cuts from the Vienna meeting, will see the global supply glut picture come back to center stage and further oil price losses may be expected.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German Manufacturing Orders: Surged 1.8% m/m, a much stronger rebound than expected and with the September number revised up sharply to -0.7% m/m from -1.7% m/m, the numbers tie in with the better than expected confidence readings this month. Still, this was the first improvement since June, and the three months trend rate still dropped to -2.9% from -2.7% in the three months to September. The German recovery may for once be driven by consumption, rather than exports and manufacturing, but still, these are weak numbers that suggest a slowdown in activity at the start of next year.

• German construction PMI: Jumped to 52.5 from 51.8 in the previous month. More signs that the construction sector is picking up as low interest rates fuel demand for property investment and the refugee crisis will mean additional demand for housing. Something then to counterbalance the weak manufacturing sector, which is facing a drop in demand.

• USD NFP: November nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 200k, with a 190k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as lean claims readings should provide some tail wind. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could put a December rate hike on hold. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady from 5.0%. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.5 from September. Hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.1% which would leave a 2.2% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be up 0.1% for the month following a 0.3% increase last month.

• USD Trade Deficit: The October trade deficit is expected to hold steady from -$40.8 bln in September. Exports in October are expected to fall 1.6% while imports show a 1.3% decrease on the month. Forecast risk: downward, if October service trade captures some of the goods-trade weakness. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data would push back rate hike assumptions. The trade deficit has failed to narrow significantly in 2015 despite a sharp price-led drop in petroleum imports, thanks to weakening foreign demand and a strong dollar.

• CAD Unemployment: Employment is expected to fall 10.0k in November after the 44.4k surge in October. Forecast Risk: Canada’s job surge in October was driven by a 32.0k surge in public administration payrolls that was largely due to temporary work associated with the federal election. A pull-back seems in the cards as those temporary workers are let go with the conclusion of the election. But education payrolls could provide a boost, having declined 3.6k in October on top of the 51.3k plunge in September that was the largest on record. Hence, the risk is mixed given the divergent risks associated with public admin and education.

• CAD IVEY PMI: Canada’s Ivey PMI is expected to rise to 54.0 in November from 53.1 in October on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.