Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 23rd February 2016. (First Report)

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd February 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

Sterling has taken a beating, losing 2% to the dollar, while the currency�s six-month implied volatility shot to 12%, the highest since Nov 2011. It�s all about Brexit, with the debate now very much in full swing following the weekend announcement that the in-out referendum will be held on Jun-23, which in turn followed PM Cameron�s obtainment from Brussels of revised terms of EU membership. The big kicker was London mayor Boris Johnson, who yesterday detonated a bombshell of headlines by announcing that he will be backing the �out� campaign.

Moody�s warned UK about Brexit �economic costs�, which it says will be greater than the �economic benefits, �and, in the event, said it would consider assigning a negative outlook on its Aa1 rating of UK sovereign debt unless the country �managed to negotiate a new trade agreement with the EU that preserves at least some of the trade benefits of EU membership.� Moody�s warned of a �prolonged period of uncertainty.� Cable�s Jan-22 low at 1.4202 looks more than likely to be breached, which would put sterling at the lowest levels since March 2009.

UK CBI industrial trends unexpectedly slumped in February to a -17 reading in the headline total orders reading, down from -15 in the month prior and off the median forecast for an improvement to -12. Among the components, export orders lifted to -19 from -22, but output expectations fell to +11 from +14 and selling prices dipped to -3 from -1. Sterling dipped to fresh lows in the wake of the data, though selling pressure is more to do with prevailing Brexit worries.

US Markit PMI fell to 51.0 in the flash February manufacturing PMI from 52.4 in January. It�s the lowest reading since October 2012 and was at 55.1 a year ago. The new order index slid to 51.7 from 53.6, and the order backlog reading dropped to its lowest since September 2009. The report is another reflection of the erosion in manufacturing. Indeed, Markit reported the slowdown was �overwhelmingly linked� to the softer underlying demand patterns, weaker business sentiment, alongside uncertainty regarding the general economic outlook. Weather was cited by only a small minority of participants.

US Chicago National Activity index rebounded to 0.28 in January from a revised -0.34 in December (was -0.22) and -0.39 in November (was -0.36). This breaks a string of 5 negative prints, and is the highest since July. Today�s data brought the 3-month moving average up to -0.15 from -0.30 (revised from -0.24) and -0.20 in November (revised from -0.19). This is a 3rd tier report that won�t really impact the markets.

Main Macro Events Today

German GDP: second release is expected to confirm the Q4 output at 0.3% (Q/Q) and 1.3% (Y/Y).

German IFO: sentiment index is expected to come in at 106.7, slightly below the 107.3 in January. January�s reading was a disappointment and was the weakest number since February last year. December was revise down to 108.6 from 108.7. Global concerns about the outlook for the world economy and falling oil prices clearly have hit German confidence.

US Existing Home Sales: January existing home sales are out Tuesday and should reveal a 0.7% headline increase to 5.500 mln (median 5.355 mln) clip for the month from 5.460 mln in December and 4.760 mln in November. The big November-December swing was driven by the implementation of new �know before you sign� regulation that pushed some November closings into December. There is some downside risk to the January headline as that effect unwinds.

US Consumer Confidence: February consumer confidence is out Tuesday and should reveal an increase to 98.5 (median 97.5) from 98.1 in January. The first release on Michigan Sentiment for February had the headline falling to 90.7 from 92.0 in January but the IBD/TIPP Poll for the month improved to 47.8 from 47.3 and the Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort survey is poised to average a slightly higher 44.4 from 44.3 in January.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 18th February 2016. (First Report)

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th February 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

China�s CPI improved to a 1.8% y/y growth rate in January, slightly slower than expected following the 1.6% y/y rate of increase in December. CPI is ****ually accelerating, with January�s growth rate the fastest since August of 2015�s 2.0%. PPI improved to a -5.3% y/y rate of contraction, nearly as expected following the 5.9% y/y rate of decline in December. The climb in annual CPI growth (albeit to still modest rates) and reduction in the pace of PPI decline suggests there could be some stabilization in China�s economy, although policy makers have a long way to go to tame overcapacity.

Australia�s unemployment rate climbed higher in January as full-time employment disappointed and dropped most for three years. This is seen signaling diminishing stimulus from record-low interest rates and a weaker currency. Jobless rate rose to 6% from 5.8% while markets expected the rate to be 5.8%. Employment fell 7,900 from December while consensus forecast was a 13,000 gain.

FOMC minutes: �many� were concerned over increased downside risks, especially amid uncertainties over economic conditions abroad, financial market stability, and inflation. That uncertainty was a large part of the decision not to assess the balance of risks. Further tightening of financial conditions could amplify the downside risks, while recent developments suggested risks were no longer balanced. The minutes noted the encouraging signs in the labor market, but data on spending and production were disappointing. Additionally, oil and commodity price declines and the firmer dollar were seen keeping inflation low over the near term. And there was a wide range of outlooks for the medium term, with recent developments having �many� now seeing a more uncertain outlook on prices, with risks pointed to the downside. The slowdown in China was seen impacting emerging markets, and together could lead to more of a drag on the US There weren�t any major surprises in the minutes given what had occurred prior to the January 26, 27 meeting, and the subsequent policy decision/statement.

Saudi Arabia�s credit rating was cut to A- from A+ by S&P amid the rout in oil, with the outlook revised to �stable� from �negative.� This is the second cut in 6 months as the rating was trimmed to A+ from AA- in late October. The ratings agency said �The decline in oil prices will have a marked and lasting impact on Saudi Arabia�s fiscal and economic indicators given its high dependence on oil.� Oil was trading near $50 at the time of the October review.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: are due today and contain an overview of financial market, economic and monetary developments. It�s followed by a summary of the discussion, in an unattributed form, on the economic and monetary analyses and on the monetary policy stance. The accounts offer a fair and balanced reflection of policy deliberations.

US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of February 13th should reveal an increase in the headline to 274k (median 275k) from 269k last week and 285k in the week before that. Claims data is typically volatile through the holiday season but as we begin to move past that we expect to see the February average improve to 273k from 284k in January and 277k in December.

US Philadelphia Fed Index: February Philly Fed is out today and should reveal a headline increase to -3.0 (median -2.8) from -3.5 in January. The already released Empire Stateindex for February had the headline at a still negative -16.6 from -19.4 in January but the ISM-adjusted measure managed a stronger rebound with a rise to 47.1 from 43.4. Despite the improvements we expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to remain at 49 in February, steady from January and matching the three year low for this measure.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[ahsan11]

brother her professional trader ne apne apne method sey kici be pair ka analysis kiya hota hy is liye ham kici ko wrong nhi kah skty is market mai her her aik analysis some pips k liye sahi work krta hy is liye hot ka analysis bes best hay ,

[HFblogNews]

Date : 17th February 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th February 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

ECB�s Nowotny fretting over market expectations. The Austrian central bank head said central banks must watch markets but not be guided by markets and told Swiss financial website Cash that he is concerned market expectations ahead of the March 10 meeting could become as excessive as in December, when expectations had �lost touch with reality�. Nowotny added that the turbulence in global markets is mainly driven by emerging market developments, an sovereign funds aiming to ensure liquidity. He admitted that market turmoil constitutes �a massive destruction of value, which is very negative for overall sentiment�. However, Nowotny stressed that monetary policy can only improve conditions for growth and was very successful in preventing deflation and keeping credit markets intact, but that actual investments have to be made by investors.

Boston Fed dove Rosengren said the Fed would be �in no rush at all� to hike rates if US inflation does not rise and would cut rates if missing 2% growth, unemployment rising and significant weakening in U.S. labor markets was seen. That�s about par for the course from the regional Fed president. Fed�s Kashkari said that staff will continue to analyze NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) as a potential policy tool, while noting that global economic and financial developments will be important inputs at the March FOMC. That said, the Fed expects a ****ual increase in interest rates to be the base case. The Fed still seems quick to deny NIRP, while mulling its options for the timing of a second hike.

A third of energy companies could go bankrupt according to a report released by Deloitte, as credit risk zooms to a record high as low commodity prices cut access to cash and debt. �The roughly 175 companies at risk of bankruptcy have more than $150 billion in debt, with the slipping value of secondary stock offerings and asset sales further hindering their ability to generate cash. These companies have kicked the can down the road as long as they can and now they�re in danger of kicking the bucket, said William Snyder, head of corporate restructuring at Deloitte, in an interview. �It�s all about liquidity,'� noted a Reuters report.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for clues on Fed�s thinking last month. However, the report will be a little out of date following Yellen�s testimony last week, and given the volatility in the markets since the policy meeting. Indeed, recent events have taken a March rate hike off the table, and have pretty much pushed out the next tightening into later in the year. Nevertheless there were a couple of interesting changes in the policy statement which will make for a worthwhile read, and especially the discussions on growth, inflation, and the importance of international developments. First the Fed down****ed its growth outlook somewhat, so we�ll look to specifics on the extent of policymakers� worries over growth. Additionally, the FOMC revealed diminished confidence that inflation would be picking up toward the 2% target over the medium term, and it will be interesting to see how widespread that angst was. Also, the Fed removed its �balance of risk� stance as it wanted to monitor global economic and financial developments for guidance.

US Industrial Production: January industrial production is out today and should reveal a flat (median 0.3%) headline following the 0.4% decline in December and the big 0.9% drop in November. Despite some rebound in manufacturing employment, hours worked declined 0.2% in January and mining sector data continued to face headwinds from the drop in oil prices. Capacity utilization should tick down to 76.4% (median 76.6%) from 76.5% in December.

US Produces Price Index: January PPI data is out Wednesday and is expected to reveal a 0.1% (median -0.2%) decline for the headline with the core index up 0.1% (median 0.1%) for the month. This comes on the heels of respective December figures of -0.2% for the headline and 0.2% for the core. Oil prices declined further through January which should continue to weigh on price measures.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 16th February 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th February 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

Stock markets continued to move higher in Asia, but with gains moderating after yesterday�s rally. The Nikkei is up 0.2% and the Hang Seng 1.23% on the day. US and UK stock futures are also higher. Risk appetite is reviving and Draghi�s remarks yesterday that the ECB is �ready to do its part� to boost the Eurozone are helping. Elsewhere RBA minutes left the door open to further easing. Oil prices are moving higher and the front end Nymex future is trading above USD 30 per barrel. The calendar has German ZEW investor confidence, which we expect to fall into negative territory at -0.5%, down from 10.2% in January. The UK has inflation numbers, which are likely to remain benign. In Germany the ECB�s OMT program is once again under the scrutiny of Germany�s top court, who has to deliver its final verdict, after the European top court effectively backed the program.

The RBA Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent. In considering the stance of monetary policy, members noted that recent domestic data had, on balance, been positive and judged that there were reasonable prospects for growth to increase ****ually over the forecast period while maintaining inflation close to target. Employment growth over 2015 had been stronger than earlier expected and the starting point for the forecast for the unemployment rate was around � percentage point lower. Inflation continued to be relatively low, with underlying measures of inflation at about 2 per cent over 2015. Growth in labour costs also remained quite subdued. Based on the available data and the forecasts for economic activity and inflation, members judged that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged at an accommodative setting. Over the period ahead, new information would enable the Board to assess whether the recent improvement in labour market conditions was continuing and whether recent financial market turbulence presaged weaker global and domestic demand. Read more here.

ECB�s Deaghi said that the central bank �is ready to do its part� and will �review, and possibly reconsider the monetary policy stance in early March.� He said much will depend on the �size and persistence of the fall in oil and commodity prices and the incidence of second-round effects on wages and prices.� He argued that in light of recent financial turmoil �we will analyse the state of transmission of our monetary impulses by the financial system and in particular banks.� Draghi gave away nothing new, leaving the door firmly open to more action but taking a cautious line ahead of tomorrow�s hearing of the OMT (outright monetary transactions) program before the German Constitutional Court (which could still throw a spanner in the works). He did, however, note �increasing concerns about the prospects for the global economy� and �intensified� turbulence in financial markets.� Draghi has been speaking before a European Parliament Committee.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation numbers are due today. The January Core consumer price index (YoY) is expected to come in at 1.3%, slightly below December figure of 1.4% while the headline inflation number (including food and energy) is expected to move up one tenth from 0.2%.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today. We expect ZEW to fall into negative territory, thus highlighting that pessimists now outnumber optimists. We are looking for a sharp drop to -0.5% from 10.2 in January, a decline that will only add to mounting growth concerns.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 10th February 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th February 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

Kocherlakota says FOMC should go negative on rates. It would be a “daring, but appropriate” move that would speed up the attainment of a 2% inflation rate, he said. He broached that idea back in October. While the Fed could discuss negative rates at its March meeting, especially after the BoJ’s surprise move, we suspect adopting such a policy would be a very last-ditch effort to address a deep contraction in the economy. At this point we’d view any public comments more as lip-service to indicate there are more tools in the stimulus bag that could be used. However, it’s not obvious to us that negative rates would be a solution,

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q1 estimate was raised again to 2.5% from 2.2% previously thanks to the wholesale trade report, actually above the median Blue Chip economist forecast of 2.3% for a change: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on February 9, up from 2.2 percent on February 5.

The US wholesale trade report undershot estimates with December sales and inventory declines that followed larger November drops that were exacerbated with downward revisions, leaving a sustained climb in the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio to a lofty 1.32 expansion-high. We still expect a downward Q4 GDP growth bump to 0.5% from 0.7%, while the I/S rise signals downside risk for our 1.8% Q1 GDP forecast.

US JOLTS showed job openings surged 261k in December to 5,607k following a 3k November decline to 5,346k (revised from an 82k gain to 5,431k). The JOLTS rate climbed to 3.8% from 3.6% (revised from 3.7%). Hiring increased 105k to 5,361k following an 88k gain to 5,256k (revised from 5,197k). The rate was unchanged at 3.7% (November revised up from 3.6%). Quitters were up 196k to 3,055k after a 75k increase to 2,859k (revised from 2,831k). The quit rate, a favorite of Fed Chair Yellen, rose to 2.1% from 2.0%. The solid JOLTS report is consistent with the strength in the jobs report from Friday.

Main Macro Events Today

European Commission Economic Growth Forecast: DG ECFIN produces various economic forecasts on behalf of the European Commission. Economic forecasts concentrate on the EU, its individual member states, and the euro area but also include outlooks for some of the world’s other major economies, and countries that are candidates for EU membership.

Fed Chair Yellen’s Monetary Policy Report will be key for market direction for the foreseeable future. Her prepared remarks will be released at 8:30 ET, after which she’ll testify before the House Financial Services Committee (from 10:00 ET). She’ll go in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. The focus will be on the tone of her remarks, whether it’s dovish or not.

US Crude Oil Inventories: The number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms is released today. After previous two weeks’ rather high inventory numbers (7.8M) we should see the inventories at 3.1M level. However, the actual numbers have lately deviated quite strongly from the analyst expectations.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 9th February 2016 (1st Report).

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th February 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

German exports drop 1.6% m/m in December. With imports also correcting 1.6% m/m at the end of 2015, the seasonally adjusted trade surplus was left at EUR 19.4 bln, little changed from the November reading of EUR 19.7 bln. December numbers meant the total sa trade surplus amounted to EUR 59.4 bln in Q4 last year, down from EUR 61.7 in Q3 and that despite lower oil prices. The data highlights again that the German recovery for once is not export driven, but driven by consumption and domestic demand. However, how long this will be sustainable against global headwinds remains to be seen, especially as falling production will also leave its mark on the labour market.

German industrial production dropped 1.2% m/m in December. The November number was revised slightly higher to -0.1% m/m, but this doesn�t gloss over the fact that the drop at the end of last year was much more pronounced than expected. The mild weather is partly to blame, as it added to the 3.0% m/m drop in energy production, but capital goods and consumer goods production also dropped markedly. Together with the weakness in confidence indicators the numbers will add to concerns about the health of the German and Eurozone economies, especially as trade data showed falling exports.

Equity markets are weak. The German DAX closed with a 3.3% loss and below the 9000 mark yesterday, losses in Spain and Italy were even more pronounced, with banks in particular under pressure, also in Germany. The rout continued in Asia, where the Nikkei closed with a 5.4% loss amid a stronger Yen and as oil prices fell below the USD 30 mark. The ASX fared better, but was also down 2.88%. The trust in the power of central banks to keep markets going is evaporating and financial companies in particular are under pressure as the focus turns to credit risks and profitability. Eurozone spreads widened sharply yesterday and Bund futures are likely to continue to underperform as concerns about the health of the currency union grows, and the fact that at the same time, EURUSD is now above the 1.12 mark is adding to Draghi�s problems. This risk aversion has driven money into JPY which is at the time of writing up by 2.6% against GBP and 2.3% against AUD. For more details and updated values see here.

BoC�s Lane: monetary policy can�t take the primary responsibility for maintaining financial stability. �Other, prudential, tools are required to build a resilient financial system�,� he continued. Fiscal policy may be called upon to provide stimulus when monetary policy could lead to financial vulnerabilities that macro prudential policy is unable to offset. This scenario is possible in a �situation of sustained weak aggregate demand,� he said. His speech, titled �Monetary Policy and Financial Stability � Looking for the Right Tools� broke no new ground in terms of the policy outlook, although his speech does give the Federal Government further cover for fast-tracked fiscal stimulus.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Trade Balance numbers for December are expected to come in at -10.4B compared to -10.6B in November. Shrinking deficit should translate into buying interest in Sterling.

US December JOLTS: The so-called Yellen�s favourite indicator for Job Openings and Labour Turnover Surveys is expected to drop slightly from 5.43M to 5.41M.

US Wholesale Trade: Wholesale sales are expected to fall 0.5% in December, while inventories Grow 0.1%. Data in-line with our forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady from 1.32 in November. Forecast risk: downward, given the still negative data from December durables.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex
[/B]

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 29th January 2016 (1st Report).

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 29th January 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

German retail sales unexpectedly declined 0.2% m/m in December. November was revised up to 0.4% m/m from 0.2% m/m reported initially. Official retail sales numbers are volatile and subject to frequent and sharp revisions and only cover less than 50% of consumption, so the negative number is not necessarily a sign of falling consumption. On the contrary, consumer confidence remains higher, the labour market is robust and low oil prices are freeing up real disposable income, which will keep consumption and domestic demand supported.

French prel Q4 GDP decelerated to 0.2% q/q from 0.3% q/q in the previous quarter, in line with expectations. The annual rate came in a tad higher than expected at 1.3% y/y. The French economy continues to be hampered by structural issues and survey indicators show that the Eurozone�s second largest economy will continue to underperform.

Bank of Japan unexpectedly introduces negative interest rates. The BoJ said it will apply a rate of negative 0.1% to excess reserves that financial institutions place at the central bank with effect from February 16. The BoJ will apply a three tier system to accounts with a positive, zero, or negative interest rate on each tier. The bank�s asset purchase program was left unchanged and the BoJ did not set a lower limits on yields of bonds purchased, which means even longer dated maturities may follow short rates into negative territory. The bias remains dovish. The BoJ said the Japanese economy has recovered mostly, with underlying inflation moving higher but stressed that recently �global financial markets have been volatile against the backdrop of the further decline in crude prices and uncertainty such as over future developments in emerging and commodity exporting economies, particularly the Chinese economy�. �For these reasons, there is an increasing risk that an improvement in the business confidence of Japanese firms and conversion of the deflationary mindset might be delayed and that the underlying trend in inflation might be negatively effective�.

Main Macro Events Today

EU Consumer Price Index: The headline figure is out today and is expected to come in at 0.4%, a 0.2% change from the previous number.

US GDP: The first release on Q4 GDP should reveal a 1.0% (median 0.8%) headline which would follow 2.0% in Q3 and 3.9% in Q2. We expect a $40 bln inventory subtraction coupled with a flat rate in fixed investment spending to hold down the headline. Consumption spending is expected to slow as well, although less dramatically to a 1.9% clip from 3.0% in Q3.

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The second release on January Michigan Sentiment is out today and should reveal a 93.5 (median 93.1) headline following 93.3 in the first release and 92.6 in December. Other confidence measures have improved for the month with the IBD/TIPP poll ticking up to 47.3 from 47.2 and consumer confidence rising to 98.1 from 96.3. Apart from this, Michigan Sentiment displays a tendency towards upward revisions in the second release.

US Chicago PMI: January Chicago PMI is out on Friday and is expected at 44.0 from 42.9 in December and 48.7 in November. Already released measures of January producer sentiment have weakened and the remaining releases look poised to remain depressed in January. We now expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to fall to a cycle-low 49 after holding at 50 since September.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

---------- Post added at 11:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:31 AM ----------

Date : 29th January 2016 (Second Report).

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 29th January 2016.

USDCAD EXPECTED PRICE BOUNCE



USDCAD, Daily

The CAD has been gaining strength in recent days as crude oil prices move higher following speculation that oil producers will reduce supplies. Also, providing some support for the CAD is the fact that the BoC left rates unchanged when the markets were forecasting a cut by 25 basis points. CAD traders for today should keep an eye on today�s Canadian economic calendar since on tap are the November GDP and Dec Product price Index. Also, keep an eye out for the U.S. Advance GDP q/q data released later today; this could also impact the USDCAD volatility for Friday.

Technically, for the USDCAD I am expecting a price bounce in the wake of the corrective sell off since the pair hit a multiyear high near the 1.4680�s last week. USDCAD traders may look to enter into long positions within the �Price bounce zone� ((B1) above chart) between 1.3815 � 1.3970, for targets within the �Lower top zone� ((T2?) above chart) 1.4340 � 1.4430.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex


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[mosin]

brother fot forex buht he acha broker hy but insta forex k i tarah nhi hay lakin her broker analysis or news ker broker apne customer ko dyta hay zaida tar analysis ashy hoty hain or ahi work krty hain .

[bloggs]

Impressive analysis i got there, but all the same its not good to follow fully on the analysis of other people all the time, you should be able to make the right analysis yourself so that you avoid the possibilities of being mislead for following other people blindly and this might cost you a fortune but all the same its to look at it for it might give you some insight on how it is done.