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    Date : 9th June 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th JUNE 2015.


    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD moved to a five day high (on a closing basis) at 1.1345 this morning bringing last Thursdays peak at 1.1379 back into scope, with the May-15 peak at 1.1466 just behind. A run of encouraging data, and perky May inflation data, out of the Eurozone has enabled to the euro to hold ground against the dollar, despite the rekindled Fed tightening narrative following the strong May US payrolls report. The forex market is also taking a sanguine view of Greeces continuing standoff with its creditors at bailout negotiations. There were fresh reports that the European Commission is trying to look into ways to get Greece some alternative funding that doesnt require a positive bailout review, but even Juncker is increasingly exasperated with Greeces hostility towards creditors and their offers. As Greece will have to negotiate further funding beyond the remaining monies from the current bailout, the hard line stance taken by Tsipras and Co is a gamble with Greece obviously banking on the fact that foreign ministers and heads of state, as well as the G7 will eventually value Greeces strategic position in the south-east of Europe and its importance as a Nato partner more than the fact that continuing Eurozone membership will cost taxpayers elsewhere in the Eurozone dearly, and that without solving the countrys underlying problems.

    According to ECBs Liikanen QE could be extended, beyond September 2016 if needed. We have heard this before, but in the current climate it may go some way to dampen the rise in yields although the official commitment to bond buying it counterbalanced somewhat by the central banks very relaxed attitude to the rise in long term yields. Bund futures, which fell into negative territory, are slightly up again on the day, but off opening highs.

    EURUSD moved on Friday pretty well according to my script. I said in Fridays report that the pair was approaching an intraday resistance at 1.1285 and that EURUSD is not likely to rise much higher but will react lower and remain weak. I also said that I dont expect the pair to move to 1.1006 support today. The pair turned lower from 1.1280, remained weak and moved to the south after NFP figures came out with a big surprise. And price never moved to 1.1006 that day.

    Now weve seen a rally back into the same resistance area that turned the pair lower Thursday last week. The picture is less clear than on Friday as price has reacted lower from the resistance but has since found buyers at the same region that resisted moves higher on Friday. If prices keeps on making lower timeframe higher lows over the next two to three hours it is likely that buyers try to challenges the daily resistance levels again. Should this fail and price move lower from here the next intraday support would be at 1.1178 after which there are no clear support levels before intraday support before 1.1133. The pivotal daily low from Friday is at 1.1050. This range could be target for intraday shorts. However, if price create a lower daily high at current levels it is more likely that serious buyers are looking to buy EURUSD long between 1.0887 and 1.1006. Daily support and resistance levels are 1.1049, 1.1006 and 1.1324, 1.1380.

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

    USD, JPY and EUR strength has been the overall theme for this morning but now we are seeing some change with EUR performance getting a bit more mixed and GBP weakening. AUD has been weak while NZDJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY have been among the weakest performers in individual pairs while EURAUD and EURNZD have been strong. NZDJPY is still trading sideways at a daily support and lower Bollinger Bands (20) while AUDJPY is edging closer to pivotal daily candles and the lower end of consolidation range. EURAUD is continuing the uptrend that got boosted when Eurozone core CPI was reported well above expectations at 0.9%.

    Main Macro Events Today

    Chinese CPI and PPI were released today. CPI fell 0.2% in May from April, below the forecast median of 0.0%, rising 1.2% vs a year-ago May compared to a 1.3% median and 1.5% in April. Food CPI rose 1.6% in May vs a year-ago, while non-food CPI grew 1.0%. PPI sank 4.6% vs year-ago levels, below -4.5% median forecasts, but same as April levels. Overall, this still points to price declines, especially on the producer side, amid ongoing signs of overcapacity and economic slowing.

    Eurozone GDP: there was no variation in the actual figures from expectations. Eurozone GDP was expected the second reading of Eurozone Q1 GDP to confirm growth rates of 0.4% q/q and 1.0% y/y respectively. This left the focus on the breakdown but without a major revision, however, the numbers are too backward looking to change the overall outlook for growth and monetary policy.

    Swiss CPI for May dipped to a new cycle low of -1.2% y/y, meeting the median forecast and down from Aprils -1.1%. The sharp drop into deflation in recent months is largely a consequence of the francs 15%-plus appreciation in January when the SNB abandoned its cap. This is troubling to Swiss policymakers, though they will be consoled by last weeks appreciation in EUR-CHF to 10-weeks above 1.0500.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    Hot Forex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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    Date : 8th June 2015.

    GOLD EDGING CLOSER TO A SUPPORT.


    Gold, Weekly

    Ever since the US dollar started move strongly higher last year most analysts have predicted Gold would considerably lower in USD terms. This however has not taken place and the price of Gold has been moving sideways since November last year. This has been a clear sign of relative strength and suggests that there have been underlying demand factors supporting this market. However, price action in Gold since the US Dollar index (DXY) started topping has not supported the Relative Strength idea. A market that has true relative strength bounces sharply higher when factors constraining its move higher are removed. As soon DXY started to move lower the price of Gold should have rallied strongly and moved beyond the resistances at 1250 and 1300. Instead Gold rallied only 7.3% from March low to May high and is currently trading only 2.17% above the March low. The more dovish stance taken by the Fed Chief Yellen has not been to move the price of Gold higher and suggests that market participants still believe the Fed is not too far from starting tightening on its interest rate policy. Historically the price of Gold not performed brilliantly during the seasons of DXY strength. Another important reason for investors being careful with this market is that the huge rally between 2001 and 2011 that multiplied the value of yellow metal by a factor of 7.5 and sent it to extreme levels that werent sustainable. It is common that a market that experiences an extreme rally will correct strongly and be out of favour for a period of time. This has for instance happened with tech stocks (Nasdaq) and Hong Kong listed Chinese stocks (Hang Seng ).

    The last time there was a similar rally in the price of Gold was in the 1970s. In August 1976 Gold made a low of 101.50 and in a space of four years rallied approximately almost nine times higher. The recent rally was almost as extreme in terms of price multiples but it happened over a longer period of time. The rally started in 2001 and lasted till 2011. After peaking in 1980 the price of Gold lost almost 75% over the next 18 months. Therefore the 38% correction over the 18 months following the 2011 peak suggests that market participants can better stomach volatility that takes place over a longer time period and that this time around there has been more safe haven buying.

    Over the last three weeks Gold has corrected to 1168 support after being rejected from 1224.50 resistance level and 50 week moving average. The lower Bollinger Bands are not too far and the Stochastics Oscillator is getting oversold. The price of Gold has now reached an area where reversals have happened in the past. This suggests that the downside is getting limited. The nearest support and resistance levels are at 1168 and 1224.50.

    Gold, Daily

    Gold is now trading between a daily resistance at 1179.90 and 1168.40 after penetrating the support on intraday basis on Friday. The 23.6% Fibonacci level coincides with the 1179.90 resistance. This suggests further weakness before price can turn around and is in line with the current down trend that has been in force since the May high. I look Gold to consolidate and turn between Fridays low of 1162.60 and March low of 1141.70.

    Conclusion

    Despite weakness of the US dollar the price of Gold has failed to rally above 1224 resistance level. The lack of conclusive rallies from over the last two months is not a sign of strength for the long term. This increases the risk of Gold violating the major support at 1131.50. Price is still in a longer term downtrend while the recent sideways move has been an attempt to build a base from which to bounce higher. The recent failure to rally above 1224.50 is a red light that longer term investors need to pay attention to. I am still expecting Gold to turn higher from or near the 1141.60. If price starts to stall after a small rally and cannot close above 1168 it is an indication to decrease long term Gold positions significantly.

    The short term picture (daily and 4h) is suggesting that price not far from levels it could stage a rally from. However, there are resistance levels above current price which should lead to a down move that would take the price of Gold to levels below Fridays low. I am expecting it to attract buyers above 1141.70 and attempt a turn around.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    Hot Forex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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    Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 5th June 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 5th JUNE 2015.


    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD closed at session lows in relatively thin trade yesterday and is after some recovery currently trading at 1.1268. Greeces request to defer IMF payments to the end of the month will apparently be approved, and will give Greece some breathing room, as a euro 300 mln payment was originally due on Friday. How Greece will make the payments at the end of the month is anyones guess. The FX market surely must be thinking there will be no end to the crisis, and perhaps some smart money is reducing exposure to the single currency.

    Eurozone Retail PMI surged higher yesterday. The overall retail PMI for the Eurozone passed the 50 point no change mark in May and rose to 51.4 from 49.5 in the previous month. This was driven mainly by a jump in the German reading to a whopping 55.8 from 52.6 in April. The French reading also improved, but remained below the 50 point mark, as did the Italian reading, which actually dropped slightly. The strong German number confirms that the recovery remains driven largely by consumption and domestic demand, unlike previous recoveries and the question is whether this is sustainable, or like the pre-crisis booms in Spain, Italy and elsewhere mainly fuelled by cheap money.

    The US initial jobless claims fell 8k to 276k in the week ended May 30, from a revised 284k in the prior week (was 282k). The 4-week moving average edged up to 274.75k from 272.0k (revised from 271.5k). Continuing claims dropped 30k to 2,196k in the May 23 week, from 2,226k previously (revised from 2,222k). Also, US Q1 productivity was revised down to a -3.1% pace from the -1.9% preliminary print, and versus -2.1% in Q4. The back-to-back declines are the largest since 1993.

    I wrote yesterday that EURUSD was trading close to a major resistance and that the upside was getting limited which increases the downside risk. This resulted in EURUSD failing to hold the highs after rallying from the intraday support I mentioned. It also resulted in a daily shooting star candle that confirmed the bearish view in the daily timeframe. At the time of writing the pair is approaching an intraday resistance area around 1.1285. Based on the intraday technical picture it seems that EURUSD is not likely to rise much higher but will react lower and remain weak and eventually it should move to the daily support at 1.1006. This being a Nonfarm Friday markets are prone to avoid strong directional movements before the employment number is out. Also the region of May 22 daily high provides some support EURUSD which is why I dont expect the pair to move to 1.1006 support today. However, the daily shooting star indicates that this is likely to happen before EURUSD can move higher. A medium term regression channel bottom coincides with the 1.1006 support which suggests that the pair will retain its medium term upward tendency. Daily support and resistance levels are: 1.1208, 1.1006, 1.0887 and 1.1324, 1.1380 and 1.1467.

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

    GBP is weak across the board this morning. GBPAUD turned lower from the resistance yesterday as was expected (see my analysis from yesterday) and GBPUSD rallied yesterday almost to 1.5447 level I identified in my earlier analysis. EUR has wide strength against the other major currencies this morning with EUR moving most against GBP and JPY. EURJPY is moving outside both weekly and daily Bollinger Bands and yesterdays shooting star raises concerns of the level of commitment by the bulls on this market. The pair is trading near yesterdays daily highs but as there is no major weekly resistance nearby I would not be interested in selling against the highs. I suggested in my earlier analysis that EURGBP is in a process of creating a market bottom. The recent volatility and the fact that this market has found attracted buyers at major support levels indicates that my view was correct. This has brought the EURGBP near a daily resistance level and it is trading in the Bollinger Bands.

    Main Macro Events Today

    Eurozone Gross Domestic Product second release for Q1 GDP is due out today but no change in number is expected. In May Q1 data was in line with expectations, with the quarterly growth rate accelerating slightly to 0.4% q/q from 0.3% q/q, in line with our forecast and a tad below our median of 0.5%. There is no breakdown with the preliminary number, but domestic demand was likely the main driver and the national data suggests that growth is broadening and stabilising, despite the deceleration in German growth at the start of the year.

    US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment rate: Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 215k, with a 223k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as depressed claims readings should provide some tail wind. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could impact the timing of rate hikes. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.4% from April.

    Canadian Unemployment Rate: Employment is expected to rebound 20.0k in May after the 19.7k drop in April. Forecast Risk: The dismal 19.7k drop in total jobs during April contrasted with mostly solid details, which we expect to give way to an improvement in overall employment during May. But business confidence remains subdued, suggesting a risk for a May job gain that undershoots our estimates. Market Risk: An as-expected rise in May would not argue against the expected timing and magnitude the Bank sees for the gyrations in Q1 and Q2 GDP, in turn supportive of expectations that the 0.75% policy rate is the floor.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    Hot Forex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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