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  1. #13
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    Date : 25th June 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 25th JUNE 2015.


    EURUSD, Daily

    Yesterdays EURUSD trading was limited by the resistance level just below 1.1239. Market turned lower below this level as I expected and has since failed to push through this resistance but the selloff I anticipated didnt materialize. Market has now formed a flag in 4h timeframe and projection from this formation suggests potential all the way down to 1.0915. The 50% Fibonacci level (measured from March low to May high) can be found at 1.0965 while my target of 1.0937 sits in between the aforementioned levels. The pair has been range bound with some effort to push the price higher but now it has moved below the 4h flag formation. I dont expect yesterdays high of 1.1234 to be exceeded today but look for a movement below latest pivot low at 1.1134 and towards my target. Important daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1207 and 1.0930.

    Pensions remained sticking point in Greek talks, according to the FT citing leaked documents covering creditors counter offers to Greeces reform plans. Creditor demands are focusing on the time line for a raise in the retirement age as well as the time contributions have to be made to benefit from full pensions. The pension system has been a key issue of controversy right from the start with creditors demanding a comprehensive overhaul of a system where costs spiraled out of control over the last decades.

    There already was one reform in 2012 but costs remain too high with creditors demanding further cuts, while at the same time recommending a basic social safety net, which so far doesnt exist in Greece, leaving the pension of parents and grandparents a fall back for many unemployed.

    TsIprass meeting with creditor officials run into the early hours of Thursday morning, but in the end there was still no deal on the table. Eurozone Finance Ministers, which had gathered Wednesday evening, had little to discuss, and called off their meeting early, while agreeing to meet again this afternoon. Negotiators have already re-started talks this morning and the discussions with Tsipras will continue at 9 am local time. European heads of state are gathering for a 2-day summit again today and it seems Tsipras is banking once again on discussions at leaders level, where he can play Greeces card of strategic Nato partner in the south-east of Europe and threats to forge closer ties with Russia.

    This ties in with Greeces demands that the ESM take over Greeces debt at the IMF and the ECB. Merkel, however, has repeatedly stressed that a deal with the institutions, including the IMF, is a prerequisite. A Greek government minister put the chances of a deal at just 50% now and Grexit is becoming a real possibility. Sticking points are reportedly mainly immediate emergency measures demanded by creditors, which want to see the government passing more reforms through parliament before handing over further cash.

    Even if there is an agreement and that is a very big if now, Tsipras will still have to get the deal through parliament in Athens and may run into difficulties with the left wing of his coalition. If he loses the votes of some of his allies there may be a greater shift in government or a referendum after all. The German parliament, which also has to sign off the deal, said it wont vote on any agreement before it has been rubber stamped by Greek lawmakers. And another extension of the bailout agreement, which seems likely, will mean more talks and public wrangling.

    The U.S. Q1 GDP growth boost to -0.2% from -0.7% slightly beat estimates thanks to small upside surprises spread across consumption and intellectual property, though we generally saw the mostly expected modest hikes for private and public construction, and boosts of $4.5 bln for inventories and $0.4 bln for net exports that left a small hike in real final sales growth to a still-weak -0.6% from -1.1%.

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

    AUD strength really sticks out today. Australian Dollar is nicely up against everything else while EUR is weak and JPY is showing some strength. AUDUSD is moving higher from a rising channel support at 0.7700 while AUDCAD is approaching a resistance at 0.9594. GBPAUD is rolling over from a sideways formation after hitting a resistance at 2.0556. EURAUD has moved lower today after hitting a resistance at 1.4549 yesterday.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

    Main Macro Events Today

    German Jul GfK consumer confidence falls to 10.1 from 10.2 in June. The dip was a tad below market consensus. Greek concerns are likely to have weighed, although German sentiment reading remain at very high levels, amid a robust labour market and rising disposable income, which is not only boosted by low inflation, but also sizeable wage gains this year. The breakdown for the Gfk, which is only available until June, showed a marked decline in the reading for business expectations, while income expectations surged. The willingness to buy fell back slightly, but remains high. The German consumer will continue to support the recovery.

    EU Extraordinary Economic Summit

    US Personal income is expected to grow 0.4% in May, while consumption should be up 0.9%. Forecast risk: upward, given the stronger May employment report. Market risk: downward, as softening in data could impact rate hike timelines.

    US initial jobless claims are expected to be 270k (median 272k) in the week-ended June 20. Continuing claims are expected to rise to 2,225k for the week-ended June 13. Forecast risk: downward, as some risk remains from oil sector disruptions. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could delay rate hike expectations.

    [B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    Hot Forex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


  2. #12
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    Date : 24th June 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 24th JUNE 2015.


    EURUSD, Daily

    Technical picture in EURUSD is bearish with price moving outside the bearish wedge Ive had on the chart for quite some time now. Resistance area below 1.1239 is likely to turn price lower today and with no high quality support levels in proximity of current price action I am expecting to see another strong sell off today. My target for todays move is 1.0937 as this level is likely to turn price higher again. Important daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1207 and 1.0930.

    An agreement at technical level with Greece needs to be on the table today, in time for Finance Ministers to sign off the agreement at the Euro group meeting Wednesday evening ahead of Thursdays EU summit. Even if this goes without a hitch, Tsipras will still have to get the deal through parliament in Athens and then through the German parliament. So plenty yet that could go wrong and trigger another flip in fixed income markets.

    Yesterday US new home sales rose 2.2% to a 546k pace in May after rebounding 8.1% to 534k in April (revised from 517k) from the 9.4% March drop to 494k. That knocked the months supply to 4.5 from 4.6 (revised from 4.8). Regionally, sales were split with gains in the Northeast and West, and declines in the Midwest and South. The median sales price fell 2.9% to $282,800 from $291,100 (revised from $297,300). Prices are down 1.0% y/y versus the 6.0% y/y clip in April. Data are better than expected. The U.S. Markit flash PMI manufacturing index slipped to 53.4 in June from Mays 54.0 and is down from Aprils 54.1. Its a third straight monthly decline and is the weakest reading since October 2013. However, employment and new orders were higher, with the former at its fastest pace since November. Average cost burdens were up for a second straight month.

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

    USD strength yesterday turned into weakness this morning with EURUSD and NZDUSD leading the pack. EUR pairs are seeing some strength across the board even though the German IFO was a disappointment today. AUD performance has been mixed while JPY is the loser this morning as it is down against almost all the competitors.

    EURJPY came close to a support level at 138 and has now bounced higher but struggles with a resistance at 138.90. GBPJPY is one of the performers this morning as its trying to break above a sideways range it has been bound for a week. As this has been caused by the pair trading at resistance this is not an ideal spot to be a buyer in this pair. CHFJPY moving higher from the bottom end of an ascending triangle formation.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for aforementioned pairs are:

    EURJPY 138.00 / 140.63
    GBPJPY 194.63 / 195.35
    CHFJPY 131.50 / 134.35

    Main Macro Events Today

    Chinas June HSBC/Markit PMI rose to 49.6 from previous 49.1 even though it was expected to remain in contraction for the fourth straight month.

    German IFO came in much weaker than expected, with the overall confidence reading falling to 107.4 from 108.5 against consensus expectations for a drop to 108.1. The weaker than expected number is in stark contrast to yesterdays better than expected PMI readings, which showed improved sentiment in both services and manufacturing sectors. The IFO reading showed the third consecutive drop in the forward looking expectations number, which was likely impacted by uncertainty about Greece and is now at the lowest level since the start of the year.

    Euro group meeting An agreement between Greece and its creditors needs to be reached in time for Finance Ministers to sign off at the Euro group meeting this evening, ahead of tomorrows EU summit.

    US Gross Domestic Product The Q1 GDP growth is likely to be revised to -0.4% from -0.7% in the second release, following 2.2% growth in Q4. Forecast risk: downward, given last years big downside surprise for the second revision that may be on track for a repeat. Market risk for USD: downward, as a weaker report could impact the already-fragile Fed rate hike timing.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    Hot Forex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


  3. #11
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    Date : 23rd June 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 23rd JUNE 2015.


    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD didn’t move much yesterday even though some positive news was received from the negotiations on financing Greece. The pair rallied to 1.1410 but failed creating both a 4h and eventually a daily rejection candles. This was very much in line with what I have been saying over the last week about EURUSD being limited on the upside to 1.1435 and with downside potential to 1.1000. The bearish wedge supported the view and now price action has confirmed this analysis with a breakout from the wedge. Today’s price action is likely downward biased with upside limited to 1.1319 while I see support between 1.1112 and 1.1148. The nearest significant daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1050 and 1.1434.

    ECB has increased Emergency Lending Assistance to Greece this morning while the country has been now given 48 hours to reach a debt deal. EU leaders see progress in the Greek talks after the latest reform list showed a narrowing of the gap between creditors and the Tsipras administration and have given Greece 48 hours to finalise a deal. Eurozone Finance Ministers will meet again on Wednesday and could sign off a package if there is a staff level agreement by then. EU heads of state will then meet again on

    Thursday with the aim to finalise a deal by the end of the week. It is likely that this will include an extension of the current bailout agreement and financing of upcoming ECB and IMF repayments through existing ESM funds earmarked initially for Greek bank recapitalisation. Greek debt is likely to be lengthened or re-profiled, although given the current construction of the ESM holding most of Greece’s debt, an outright write off seems less likely.

    The 5.1% May US existing home sales bounce to a 5.35 mln pace yesterday beat the prior 5.31 mln four-year high to leave the strongest pace since the spike to a 5.44 mln clip back in November of 2009 with the homebuyers’ tax credit. We also saw a 4.6% median price rise to $228,700 new cycle-high, as prices now sit near the all-time high of $229,500 in June of 2005. Sales have bounced sharply in the seasonally important spring season after a dismal Q1 performance, alongside big rebounds for pending sales, permits, and the MBA purchase index, though we still have an anemic pace of housing sector recovery overall, with lean inventories and a cyclical price uptrend.

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

    AUD and USD strength together with EUR weakness have been the main themes this morning. EURAUD has lost the most ground at the time of writing as the pair failed to penetrate a resistance yesterday and is now approaching the lower end of the sideways range. Another strong mover this morning is NZD against EUR. EURNZD is struggling to penetrate a weekly pivotal resistance level at 1.6445. EURGBP is also down this morning despite the fact that the pair is close to support levels and lower daily Bollinger Bands.

    Nearest important daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

    EURAUD 1.4427 / 1.4769
    EURNZD 1.6159 / 1.6674
    EURGBP 0.7110 / 0.7211



    Main Macro Events Today

    China’s June HSBC/Markit PMI rose to 49.6 from previous 49.1 even though it was expected to remain in contraction for the fourth straight month.

    EMU PMI: Eurozone preliminary June PMI readings are expected to show a stabilisation in the manufacturing number at 53.6 (median same) and a decline in the services reading to 53.6 (med same) from 53.8 in the previous month, which should bring the composite down to 52.0 (med same) from 52.2. PMIs still point to ongoing expansion and national indicators are looking more even but there is no further acceleration in output growth and the data tie in with the ECB’s view that growth is broadening but not necessarily strengthening. This will leave the central bank firmly on course for full implementation of QE measures despite the pickup in headline inflation. Indeed, there still is some outside chance of a widening of asset purchases if the Greek crisis implodes and threatens to derail the recovery and stability in the rest of the Eurozone.

    US New Home Sales. May new home sales should reveal a 1.0% decline to a 512k (median 520k) unit pace for the month following the 6.8% bounce to a 517k pace in April. Despite today’s firm existing home sales figures which had the headline pace up 5.1% there is still downside risk to tomorrow’s release from the NAHB decline to 54 in May and the fall in housing starts to 1,036k from 1,165k in April.

    U.S. Durable Goods. May durable goods data should reveal a 0.5% (median -0.5%) decline for orders following a 1.0% drop in April. Shipments are seen rising by 0.5% with inventories up by 0.2% following respective April figures of -0.2% and 0.2%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.67 for a third month. There is downside risk to the report from the decline in Boeing orders to 11 from 37 in April and the weak industrial production figures which fell by 0.2% in May.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    Hot Forex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


  4. #10
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    Date : 19th June 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th JUNE 2015.

    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD stayed inside the wedge and created shooting star candle in daily resolution and reacted lower from proximity of 1.1324 resistance. This morning weve seen weakness and some reaction higher from 1.1304. As the Greek situation is not likely to have a quick resolution I dont expect EURUSD to move strongly today. I expect the pair to find support today around 1.1296 (another support at 1.1270) while upside is probably limited to yesterdays high of 1.1435. I am seeing an intraday resistance at 1.1353 while daily support and resistance levels in EURUSD are: 1.1296, 1.1152, 1.1020 and 1.1435, 1.1380, 1.1467.

    According to Bloomberg reports ECB is to hold an emergency teleconference today to discuss a Greek central bank request for more ELA funding. The central bank apparently is worried about the amount of capital withdrawn from Greek banks, which reportedly amounted to EUR 2 bln this week. ELA funding was just lifted on Wednesday and is conducted by and at the risk of the Greek central bank, but the ECB can limit overall amounts. It is increasingly difficult to argue that Greek banks fundamentally are solvent, which is a precondition for ELA funding, but the ECB clearly doesnt want to be the one pulling the plug on Greece. The EU emergency summit on Monday will give yet another chance for an agreement, and without a deal capital controls almost seem inevitable.

    Greece continues to dominate Eurozone markets, the rumour mill and official comments from both sides. This means ongoing volatility and wider intra-day ranges. Eurozone bond spreads narrowed slightly and Bunds underperformed Gilts as some safe haven flows were unwound and this trend is likely to continue amid fresh action to get a deal with Greece. EU President Tusk called an emergency summit on Greece on Monday to try and stem capital outflows, which the ECB is increasingly worried about. Reports that the ECB suggested Greek banks may close Monday were denied, but the Greek central bank reported called for further ELA funding. The risk of capital controls is rising.

    U.S. reports signaled a long-await June factory sector bounce that will hopefully permeate the remaining June data, alongside a 0.4% May CPI rise that slightly undershot market forecasts and a narrower than expected $113.4 bln Q1 current account gap. The June Philly Fed moved to 15.2 from 6.7 coincided with a ISM-adjusted rise to 53.2 from 50.0, and defied Mondays weaker Empire State data to signal some upturn in sentiment after a half-year stretch of dismal readings. We also saw a 12k initial claims drop to a lean 267k in the BLS survey week that undershoots both prior BLS survey weekly readings and monthly averages. We saw a second consecutive 0.7% leading indicators rise in May that added to the positive spin, leaving the economy in good position to outperform the low-balled GDP estimates released after yesterdays FOMC meeting.

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

    USD has been stronger this morning following EURUSD hitting and failing to penetrate the 1.1424 resistance yesterday and dollar finding support levels against other currencies as well. AUD has lost ground this morning and is down especially against the USD, CAD and GBP. There is some strength in GBP but the performance is a bit mixed. JPY performance has been likewise while EUR is down against most of the competitors.

    Nearest daily support and resistance levels for AUD pairs:

    AUDUSD 0.7605 / 0.7864
    EURAUD 1.1127 / 1.4770
    GBPAUD 2.0028 / 2.0775
    AUDJPY 94.32 / 97.30
    AUDCAD 0.9410 / 0.9717
    AUDNZD 1.1115 / 1.1304

    Main Macro Events Today

    Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement. As expected BoJ maintained the low interest rates its stimulus programme while it remained positive in its assessment of the economy. BoJ has conviction that growth will strengthen enough to accelerate inflation to its 2 percent target without additional monetary easing.

    German May PPI inflation rose to -1.3% y/y from -1.5% y/y in April, with prices unchanged over the month. Producer price inflation remains in negative territory, but has clearly bottomed out at the start of the year and is slowly moving higher as negative base effects from energy prices start to fall out of the equation.

    Canadian CPI could expand at a 0.9% y/y rate in May following the 0.8% growth rate in April. CPI is seen rising 0.5% on a month comparable basis in May after slipping 0.1% in April. Forecast risk: Mixed for total CPI given the rise in gasoline prices but 1.3% appreciation in the CAD that could restrain prices of imported goods. April was the first month the CAD gained ground against the USD since July of 2014 and the improvement continued in May on an average basis. Core CPI risk is modestly upward given ongoing upward pressure on the core CPI.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    Hot Forex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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  6. #9
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    Date : 18th June 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 18th JUNE 2015.


    EURUSD, Daily

    After moving sideways for most of the day EURUSD found support at 1.1203 and bounced higher at the time of FOMC press conference. EURUSD is still trading inside a bearish wedge and near resistance levels. Yesterdays close was well above the 1.1296 level and was a positive for the bulls but the upside is likely to be limited as price is trading at upper Bollinger Bands and close to resistance levels. We might see a bit more upside today but I expect price action to stay roughly inside the bearish wedge formation as I see resistance at 1.1424 while there is intraday support at 1.1330 1.1340. Daily support and resistance levels in EURUSD are: 1.1296, 1.1152, 1.1020 and 1.1380, 1.1467.

    ECBs Weidmann says ball is clearly in Greece court, something the Euro group is likely to mirror in its official statement today. Greek officials meanwhile say the ball is in the creditors court and with both sides continuing to play the blame game there is no sign of progress. Weidmann also repeated again that the ECB is forbidden to finance states directly and stressed that the Greek situation is very different to Italy and Spain. Nothing really new on the central banks position on Greece.

    The ECB upped ELA assistance to Greece again yesterday, indicating that it is not ready to pull the plug and take the blame for a worsening of the situation, but the assessment that Greek banks are solvent is increasingly becoming questionable. Still, ELA assistance is actually given by the Greek central bank, who also takes the risks.

    According to Merkel Greece needs to meet obligations to creditors. It seems even the German Chancellor is running out of patience with Greece. She still said one needs to reflect carefully on Greece, but added that its always been aid for reforms on Greece and that the country has gotten unprecedented solidarity already. She highlighted that Ireland and Portugal have concluded their programs and that Cyrpus is on a good way while Greece has dragged its feet on some reforms and didnt conclude the measures. Merkel also said Greece isnt on the agenda at the next summit and that a deal between Greece and the three creditor institutions is still possible, reiterating that where theres a will theres a way on Greece.

    There was nothing definitive regarding the timing of liftoff in the FOMC statement or press conference yesterday. September is still the best guess to start normalizing rates as the data show improvement in the economy and some pickup in inflation. Additionally, the markets are taking Yellen, and the dots, at their word that the trajectory will be ****ual. Data, therefore, will continue to be scrutinized for hints on tightening, along with global financial conditions. Meanwhile, Fed funds futures are consistent with this stance as implied rates reveal a shallower trajectory. The market had been pricing in strong probability for 50 bps in hike by the end of the year, but that was trimmed to one 0.25% hike.

    Yesterday Yellen also referenced to the strong dollar suggesting that although it has appreciated significantly, she takes into account its negative impact on the economy, but hasnt seen it have a negative impact on exports. Though the drag from the dollar on the economy could continue for some time, the Fed has no target and takes its moves as one of many factors affecting the outlook. She still believes that tightening is warranted this year despite the strong dollar. The buck remains lower on the day, however, as the risk of an immediate rate hike is still somewhat distant.

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

    The NZD slipped near 2010 lows against the USD today after data showed economic growth was much weaker than expected. This caused markets to anticipate further cuts in interest rates and sell the currency. As a result NZD is down against all the other major currencies and seems to be the only game in town as it has moved in excess of 1.20% against its rivals. Significant weekly support and resistance levels for NZD pairs are 0.6562 (NZDUSD), 1.6595 (EURNZD), 2.3298 (GBPNZD), 1.1659 (AUDNZD), 83.37 (NZDJPY) and 0.5753 (NZDCHF).

    Main Macro Events Today

    The Swiss Rate Decision. The Swiss National Bank was widely expected to keep rates unchanged and the rate was kept at -0.75. The appreciation of the CHF since the SNB abandoned its currency target in January has put pressure on the export-oriented Swiss economy, and with the Greek crisis hanging over the Eurozone policymakers will likely take a wait-and-see stance while keeping the options of currency intervention and higher charges on sight deposits open.

    US Philadelphia Fed Index: June Philly Fed comes out today. An increase to 7.0 is likely (median 8.0) following Mays dip to 6.7. The Empire State Index for the month has already been released with a drop to -2.0 from 3.1 alongside a more restrained ISM-adjusted decline to 51.6 from 51.7. Overall, producer sentiment should trend sideways in June with the ISM-adjusted average holding at 51 for a third month.

    The US May headline CPI is expected to grow 0.5%, while the core index rises 0.2%. Forecast risk: upward, as the bounce in oil prices in May should help lift the headline. Market risk: downward, as inflation undershoots may affect the timing of rate hikes.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    Hot Forex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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  8. #8
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    Date : 17th June 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 17th JUNE 2015.


    EURUSD, Daily

    Yesterdays US May building starts and permits divergence was good news on net but didnt have an impact on the US Dollar Index. The 11.1% drop in housing starts from an upwardly-revised April cycle-high reflected the tail-end of the winters weather gyrations while an 11.8% permits surge to a robust 1.275 mln new cycle-high rate bodes well for housing activity into mid-year. Starts under construction is climbing at a healthy 14% rate into Q2, and home completions have risen 28.3% over the past two months after a 17.3% February-March setback that was likely weather-related. The surge in new home construction and completions will fuel a climb in new home sales into mid-2015.

    FOMC began the first live meeting in terms of a possible rate move but there are no expectations for a rate hike to happen now. Risk is still for rate lift-off in September, but that could be just a token move according to market speculation. The improvement in growth, strengthening in the labor market, and the pickup in some inflation indicators support expectations the Fed will finally start to normalize policy next quarter. But, many are now of the opinion that Greece will default and increased market volatility could keep the FOMC inactive for the rest of the year. The Feds forecast revisions will be important for fine-tuning expectations on the rate trajectory. Yellens press conference also will be parsed for indications on the tightening path. So far the Fed Chair has taken the dovish path at each junction in the road given uncertainty over growth in the US and abroad, subdued inflation, and the impact from the stronger dollar. We suspect she will remain cautiously optimistic that the economy will perform in line with policymakers outlooks for stronger growth and a pickup in wages and prices.

    EURUSD traded sideways yesterday as I expected in analysis but the pair found support a bit higher than I suggested, at lower 4h Bollinger bands at 1.1203. This created yet another higher low in 4h chart which suggests that EURUSD should push higher today. At the time of writing intraday this is happening with EURUSD trending higher this morning. Resistance level at 1.1280 has been limiting the move and judging from the intraday charts the area between 1.1280 and 1.1330 could well be the area that turns EURUSD lower today. The bearish view with potential to 1.1000 level over the coming few trading days is still valid. This is supported by the bearish wedge and the proximity of higher time frame resistance level. The nearest significant daily resistance levels are at 1.1380 and 1.4167 while support levels are at 1.1152 and 1.1050.

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

    This morning we are seeing AUD weakness and CHF strength. EUR has shown some strength against everything else but CHF which has been rather strong this morning against all the majors. USD, GBP and JPY performances are mixed as there is no clear trend across the board in these currencies.The strongest GBP pair over the last few days has been GBPNZD. This has taken the pair close to year 2011 weekly high at 2.2525. Another strong mover is AUDNZD and is trading near a resistance, the weekly pivot candle low (1.1140) from September last year.

    Main Macro Events Today

    UK Claimant Count Change: a drop of -11.1k in May claimant looks likely with the ILO unemployment for April seen steady at 5.5%.

    UK Average Hourly Earnings: Markets will give particular attention to average household earnings to the three months to April, as this is expected to show the with-bonus figure rise 2.1% y/y from +1.9% and by 2.5% y/y in the ex-bonus figure, up from 2.2% previously. Such outcomes would mark new cycle highs, and anything stronger would likely reanimate BoE tightening expectations, which currently centre on Q2 next year.

    Feds Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement: No change is expected in this meeting. Risk is still for rate lift-off in September, but that could be just a token move according to market speculation.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    Hot Forex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 16th June 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 16th JUNE 2015.


    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD has been trading sideways for week now and yesterdays data didnt have much impact on the pair and it moved only slightly higher in yesterdays trading. The US NAHB homebuilder sentiment index jumped to 59 in June versus 54 in May and 56 in April. Its the highest since September. The single family sales index popped to 65 from Mays 58 (revised from 59), the best since 2005. The future sales index rose to 69 versus 63 (revised from 64). The index of prospective buyers rose to 44 was from 39. This is a solid beat, but it may not erode the gains in Treasuries much given the weakness in equities and the flight to safety nature behind some of the demand for bonds.

    Its not likely that there will be run-away moves in EURUSD as markets are likely to be on a wait and see mode going into the FOMC meeting. No policy changes are expected from the Fed, but the statement, economic forecast revisions and it has been argued that Yellens press conference should leave market participants with a stronger sense that a rate hike will come in October. Forecast revisions from the FOMC on Wednesday will be one of the key results of the meeting and will be used to assess rate hike probabilities for later in the year, as well as the likely trajectory. Despite the bounce in growth optimism in recent weeks, the FOMC will likely trim the official GDP estimates for 2015. But, it is also expected to increase the 2015-16 PCE chain price projections as energy prices have partly recovered from early-2015 lows. We expect a 0.1%-0.2% downward shift in the 2015 GDP and 0.4% boosts in the 2015 PCE chain price with likely additional upward nudge of 0.1% in the low-end inflation estimates for 2016. The core price central tendencies should remain roughly unchanged. The Fed may sidestep the usual downward bumps in the jobless rate estimates, given the flat jobless rate trend since February. The aggressive high-end near-term Fed funds rate estimates should be lowered as views converge toward the market expectation of a September or October start for Fed tightening. See our policy outlook page for a table of our assumptions for the Feds revised forecasts.

    European court clears ECBs OMT program. Draghis masterplan to safeguard financial stability and limit contagion finally won the backing of the European Court of Justice today, after a lengthy way through the courts in Germany and now the EU. The ECJ said in todays ruling the OMT program doesnt exceed the powers of the ECB, under certain conditions, which have been met. So the ECB can count on the OMT to help contain the fallout of a possible Greek default.

    EURUSD has been range bound over the last few days. Upside has been limited by the resistance levels at 1.1326 and 1.1380 while the reaction lows from resistance have been higher than before. This has created higher daily lows and suggests upward bias but the resistance above has stood firm. Stochastics is indicating poor upside momentum while price is creating a bearish wedge. Therefore the line of least resistance should be on the downside over the coming days. This should bring the 1.0819 support into play. Weve just seen a rally to 1.1326 resistance rejected which indicates weakness intraday. Todays price movement is more likely range bound between 1.1152 and 1.1380. It is unlikely that EURUSD will have strong directional movements before FOMC meeting is over.

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

    US Dollar strength with AUD weakness have been the Currency Mover themes this morning. AUD has been the weakest against the dollar as it reacted lower from a resistance at 0.7780 yesterday and created a shooting star. Now the pair has moved lower as per this bearish indication. Markets are waiting for the FOMC meeting tomorrow which is visible in low volatility. Todays trading is therefore likely to be range bound unless suprising news events change the expectations and force the market participants to recalculate the risk.

    Main Macro Events Today

    German May HICP inflation rose to 0.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary reading and up from 0.3% y/y in April. The national CPI rate also rose to 0.7% y/y. Headline rates are still held down by lower energy prices, which dropped 5.0% y/y in May. Excluding energy the national rate would have been at 1.3% y/y. Still, the decline in annual energy price inflation is slowing down as base effects start to drop out of the equation, which together with the drop in the EUR is pushing headline rates higher not only in Germany. Strong consumer demand and expected substantial wage gains this year are likely to keep German inflation above the Eurozone average, while the ECBs accommodative policy is adding to price pressures, although this especially in the real estate market.

    European Court Of Justice Decision on whether the European Central Banks OMT program was inside the ECBs mandate.

    German ZEW investor confidence dropped to 31.5 from 41.9 in May. A much sharper decline than anticipated, and the third consecutive drop in investor sentiment. The ZEW said external developments are limiting the room for a further improvement of the German economy, first and foremost the ongoing uncertainty about Greeces future in the Eurozone, but also the weak dynamic in the world economy. The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany also dipped slightly to a still very high 62.9. Expectations for developments in the Eurozone as a whole also came off. Optimists outnumber pessimists, but the developments highlight that while growth is broadening there is no further strengthening for now as uncertainty weighs.

    UK CPI rose +0.1% y/y in May, as expected and up from -0.1% y/y in April, which was the cycle low. Core CPI came in at +0.9% from +0.8%. The biggest upward contribution came from transport services, particularly air fares, with the timing of Easter in early April having a bearing, according to the ONS. PPI output prices were -1.6%, up fractionally from -1.7% in April, while input prices were -12.0% in May from a revised -11.0% in the previous month. Sterling has traded moderately lower in the wake of the release, although the data are near expectations.

    US May Housing Starts data are out today and we expect the headline to decrease 3.1% to a 1,100k (median 1,095k) pace for the month from 1,135k in April. There is some downside risk to the release as the months NAHB index declined to 54 from 56 in April.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    Hot Forex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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    PALLADIUM TRADING AT LOWER WEEKLY BOLLINGER BANDS
    Market Analysis 15 June 2015
    Palladium, Weekly
    Palladium has been trading sideways in a wide range since October last year. In the process market has created a lower weekly high and has now moved close to support levels. This suggests that in there is weakness in the long term picture but it doesnt mean there cant be short term rallies. Stochastics oscillator is now oversold and price is trading at lower Bollinger bands. This highlights the fact that price trading fairly close to important higher time frame support. Nearest support level is at 723.00 while the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level at 767 practically coincides with a resistance created by a weekly pivot low 772.10. The fact that this region coincides with a 38.2% Fibonacci level when drawn from the year 2011 low the 2014 high increases its significance as a resistance level.

    Palladium, Daily
    The daily down trend that has been in force since the beginning of this month has taken Palladium inside a daily pivot near the weekly support level . This has caused the downside momentum to wane a bit and lifted Stochastics oscillator slightly higher. Nearest daily support level at 723 is the same as in the weekly chart. There is some resistance right above the current prices from the sideways moved seen last week. Nearest significant resistance after the sideways move above the 739.35 is at 767.


    Palladium, 240 min
    Since June 8th the down trend in Palladium has been changing the slope to less bearish (black channel vs. blue and red regression channel lines). A sign that buyers are slowly stepping in and trying to create a reversal as price is getting close to a major support. Stochastics is pointing higher suggesting that price might be actually doing just that. However, there are resistance levels ahead and it probably takes some short term consolidation before price can turn higher. Nearest intraday support level is at 731.32 while the bottom of the sideways range above at 739.35 is likely to act as a resistance. The next more significant resistance level is in the region of 746 to 750 where the 23.6% Fibonacci level, 50 period SMA and the upper Bollinger bands coincide.
    Conclusion
    Long term picture is a sideways market with a bearish slant to it as price has just recently made lower high and the March low was a lower low especially on a closing basis. The short to medium term picture has potential turn bullish as price has moved close to levels that sent price considerably higher in March. Therefore, we are looking for momentum reversal signals above 723 resistance this week. The daily chart suggests that the short term move has potential to 767 (23.6% Fibonacci level).
    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    ********

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 12th June 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 12th JUNE 2015.


    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD remained week yesterday and the pair closed below the shooting star candle from day before amidst positive US data. Yesterday US retail sales was reported to have surged 1.2% in May, with the ex-auto figure up 1.0%, close to expectations. Aprils headline unchanged figure was revised up to 0.2%, and the ex-auto number was left at 0.1%. Sales excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials increased 0.6% versus 0.3% previously (revised from 0.1%). Atlanta Fed boosted its Q2 GDP forecast to 1.9%up from 1.1% previously in the wake of the firm May retail sales report, which was propped up by auto sales and gasoline prices. That closed the gap somewhat with Blue Chip economists, who have a median forecast of around 2.65%. US household net worth rose to $84.9 tln in Q1 from a revised $83.3 tln in Q4 (raised from $82.9 bln), according to the Fed, thanks to rising home values and investment gains. Household debt increased at a 2.2% annual pace, down from a revised 2.8% previously (was 2.7%). Increased returns and lower borrowing is a relatively healthy development for the outlook on consumer spending and dovetails with some of the better contemporary readings on the economy.

    U.S. business inventories rose 0.4% in April, with sales up 0.6%, both higher than expected. Marchs 0.1% rise in inventories was not revised, but the February gain is now 0.3% from 0.2%. The 0.4% sales increase in March was bumped up to 0.6%, with the 0.2% February drop revised to -0.3%. The inventory-sales ratio was steady at 1.36 and is just a shade below the expansionary high of 1.37 in February. The data are good news for Q2 GDP. US initial jobless claims rose 2k to 279k in the week ended June 6, from a revised 277k in the prior week (was 276k). That brought the 4-week moving average to 278.75k from 275k (revised from 274.75k). Continuing claims were up 61k to 2,265k in the week ended May 30, from a revised 2,204k (was 2,196k). US consumer comfort index sank to 40.1 for the period ended June 7, down from 40.5 the week prior and the lowest reading since November, according to Bloomberg. Thats down about 8-points from an 8-year high in mid-April. Rising gasoline prices contributed to the decline, though wage gains and firmer equities supported household sentiment.

    IMF doesnt see progress on Greece. IMFs Rice said the IMF has major differences with Greece in key areas and doesnt see a progress on the way to an agreement with obstacles still including pensions, taxes, financing. Markets have been buying into hopes of a deal with Greece today, but that always seemed premature, considering that comments from most officials continue to stress that talks continue, but also that Greece needs to make more commitments and that there are still differences. Even if there is a bailout extension, it would not solve the problem as any payout of funds still hinges on the implementation of reform commitments that Tsipras is unwilling to subscribe to.

    Germany prepares for Grexit, according to a German newspaper Handelsblatt. Tabloid paper Bild meanwhile reported that the government is preparing for default with considerations of capital controls and a haircut on Greek debt. So far it was mainly Tsipras who threatened that a Grexit would mean the beginning of the end for the Eurozone, but after the IMF finally lost patience with the lack of progress in the talks with Greece, the reports suggest that Germany is also not willing to keep Greece in at all costs. A Bloomberg story meanwhile said creditors will give Greece less than 24 hours to come up with a serious counter-proposal to its own reform list. There may not be any real progress, but it seems the beginning of the end to the Greek crisis is finally here, even if it could still go one way or the other.

    Todays data calendar being quite thin EURUSD might not move that much today. Over the next couple of days I think that bias is still to the downside due to the shooting star candle from two days ago. Todays price action has taken place below Wednesdays low and yesterdays low was also below Wednesdays shooting star low, which is inline with the expectation that EURUSD is likely to remain weak and retest the support 1.1006 to 1.1049 region. The nearest significant daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1049 and 1.1380 while the low from Wednesday has clearly been a resistance today.

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

    Todays currency mover is AUD which is down by roughly 30 to 40 basis points against everything else but NZD that is weak after the RBNZ cut the rates yesterday in a surprise move. AUDCHF is reacting lower after rallying to a pivotal resistance. The pair is making lower lows and lower highs in a daily chart. GBPAUD has been moving sideways and still trying to push higher through the resistance. EURAUD moved lower yesterday after creating two no-demand candles. AUD weakness is the only clear theme this morning as other currencies performance has remained mixed.

    Main Macro Events Today

    German Wholesale Price Index numbers improved both on m/m and y/y basis. Monthly change in May came in at 0.5% compared to 0.4% in April while the yearly change improved from -0.9% to -0.4%.

    US Producer Price Index data for May is out today and should reveal a 0.8% (median 0.4%) headline with the core up 0.1%. After a long run of drops driven by falling oil prices we have now begun to see rebounds which should help lift the PPI headline. The trade price data for May began to reveal this effect with a 1.3% import price increase following a steady string of declines through the winter.

    US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The first release on June Michigan Sentiment is due today and should reveal a decline to 90.0 (median 91.5) from 90.7 in May. The IBD/TIPP poll for the month eased to 48.1 from 49.7 in May. Confidence measures have eased over the Spring as gasoline prices begin to rebound off lows and consumers become accustomed to their new level.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    ********


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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    Date : 11th June 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 11th JUNE 2015.


    EURUSD, Daily

    Germany may be considering a staggered deal on Greek aid. Greece will apparently be required to commit to at least one economic reform to win partial access to bailout funds. German Chancellor Merkel was reportedly quoted as saying where there is a will there is a way. The goal is to keep Greece in the euro area. The ECB has agreed to increase the Emergency Lending Assistance to Greek banks by 2.3 billion euros. According to Bloomberg the ECB is trying to strike a balance between keeping Greek lenders afloat and safeguarding the countrys central bank, which provides the aid, as the government veers toward a debt default. This is the biggest weekly increase since February 18th.

    Standard & Poors down****ed Greek bonds deeper into junk status, questioning whether Athens can pay its debts. Reuters reported that Tsipras emerged early on Thursday from talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Francois Hollande to express confidence. We decided to intensify the efforts to bridge the remaining differences and proceed, I believe, to a solution in the coming period.

    EURUSD traded most of the day yesterday below the 1.1380 resistance identified in my previous report with the result that yesterdays candle formed a shooting star. There was a brief rally above the 1.1380 level yesterday with the pair creating a high print of 1.1386 but it wasnt sustainable and rally failed. Most of the morning EURUSD was trading in a small range between intraday support and resistance levels. Market was truggling with an intraday resistance and created a shooting star in 60 min resolution after which it headed towards yesterdays low at 1.1260 and at the time of writing is trading below it at 1.1244. In daily context the pair is trading close to a daily and weekly resistance which suggests that in the daily resolution the line of least resistance is down. The nearest significant daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1049 and 1.1380.

    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

    This morning AUD and USD have been strong while almost all currencies are up against JPY and NZD. The NZD rate cut keeps the currency weak while USD strength might be just down to the technical picture of euro, the heaviest weighted currency in US Dollar Index. AUDNZD is the best performer this far today with a performance of approx. 0.80% as it continues a daily trend after breaking out of a sideways range yesterday. Other strong movers are USDPJY (found support yesterday) and AUDJPY that is moving higher after the pair reacted higher intraday from a support.

    Main Macro Events Today

    RBNZ eased rates 25 bps to 3.25%, surprising expectations for a steady stance at 3.50%. This is the first cut since the 50 bp move in March 2011. The most recent policy shift was a 25 bp hike last July. Governor Wheeler said the action was taken to address low inflationary expectations and the weaker demand. And further easing may be necessary, according to the policy statement. The NZD dropped on the news.

    U.S. Retail Sales for May are out today and should reveal a 1.4% (median 1.2%) headline with the ex-autos figure up 1.0%. The big auto sales jump to 17.7 mln from 16.5 mln in April will be a major contributor as will the rebound in gasoline prices that we witnessed over the course of the month.

    U.S. Business Inventories for April are due today. The headline should have inventories up 0.2% (median 0.2%) with sales up 0.5% for the month. Data in line with this forecast would leave the Inventory to Sales ratio steady at 1.36 from last month. Retail inventories are expected to be up 0.1% in April.

    U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Claims data for the first week of June will be released on Thursday and should reveal a 280k (median 277k) headline, up from 276k last week. We expect claims to set a 279k average in June, down from a 274k average in May.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    Hot Forex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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