The first thing to do, every day for trading to take a look at the daily chart, including the 200-day simple moving average. If the price is above the 200-day SMA, the trend is upward. If the price is below the 200-day SMA, the trend is downwards.
Currently, the 200-day SMA a good starting point, but you must not quit. Of course you would not go for too long if the price is above the 200-day SMA, but the price drops.