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USDCAD remains in downtrend from 1.0054, and the fall extends to as low as 0.9824. Further decline could be expected after a minor consolidation,
and next target would be at 0.9800 area. Resistance is now located at the upper line of the price channel on 4-hour chart,
only a clear break above the channel resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.
Spoiler:
On the H1 chart price is below 12 EMA (red) and 72 EMA (blue) indicates the trend is still down
21 RSI is below 50 indicates the trend is still down
Recommendation: SELL
Targe: S.0.9798
SL: 0.9860
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9830; (P) 0.9842; (R1) 0.9860;
USD/CAD's decline from 1.0056 is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9633 to 1.0056 at 0.9795. Current development raised the odds of a new low below 0.9633 and we'll see how USD/CAD reacts after hitting 0.9795 fibo level. On the upside, above 0.9905 minor resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, we'll now stay cautiously bearish.
In the bigger picture, price action from 1.0656 are viewed as a correction pattern, no change in this view. We're still slightly favoring the case that such correction is completed with three waves down to 0.9633. But this is far from being certain and break of 1.0445 is needed to be the confirmation. Meanwhile, break of 0.9874 support will indicate that such correction is going to make another low below 0.9633 before completion. In any case, we'd still expect any downside attempt to be contained above 0.9406 low. Eventually, we'd expect another medium term rise to 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9406 at 1.0803.
The greenback was slightly up today and tried to hold this position, even not taking into account that the Fed announced the extension of the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) where it promised to buy mortgage bonds worth for $ 40 billion per month and a new round of redemption of long bonds for $ 45 billion per month.
USD\CAD
MACD : down
Momentum : down
Parabolic : down
time frame- H1
price is now reaching at the resistance trend line at 0.9845 and i thing this level will break very soon.
as per the stoch analysis we can see then signal for long. we can long at the 0.9850 and stop loss is 0.9830
n the previous articles, we suggested that the potential downside movement remains valid as long as the pair is trading below 1.0040 and below 1.0000 area, the psychological resistance.
Price zone 0.9900 - 0.9860 (Important Fibonacci Levels) provided strong support expressing strong bullish price action, which is manifest in the giant bullish engulfing daily candlestick.
The USD/CAD pair expressed strong bearish reaction towards 1.0020 - 1.0050, failing to consolidate above 1.0040. This indicated a strong bearish move towards 0.9995; then 0.9945 took place which actually occurred when Intraday Support around 0.9980 was broken down.
The Daily chart showed a narrow consolidation range 0.9905 -0.9955, located few pips above 0.9890 (50% Fibonacci Level) which was broken-down last week. That is why retesting of 0.9905 will be considered as a valid SELL entry with SL as 4H closure above 0.9930.
Price Level 0.9855 (61.8% Fibonacci Level) was broken down this week. However, there is lack of bearish follow up that is required after a significant breakdown as such a bullish retracement is highly expected before further continuation of the bearish movement.
Price Zone 0.9890 - 0.9910 should be watched at retesting as it will probably provide a valid SELL entry with SL as 4H closure above 0.9930.
This isn't a pair I trade, but I've got an alert set for when the pair reaches parity before I start looking for where to place a long entry. With NFP due out tomorrow, and the dollar looking a bit weak at the moment, I'm 'hoping' this will be sometime next week. If I were looking to short this pair, I'd be looking for a retrace tomorrow pre-post NFP and then shorting either tomorrow or next week.
There could be a dip beyond the support to, say 1.024 or thereabouts, just below last months' low, and 40 odd pips below where you're looking to short from, and then you could get a rebound - or a CBN intervention which suddenly spikes the pair up a few 100 pips, like the Swissy today, leaving your short orders in a pretty bad state.
In essence, if I were trading this pair, I wouldn't be shorting from 1.062, but with good mm, and a stop loss, you do what you think is right.
Good luck.
USDCAD has broken the key support at 0.9875, paving the way for mid-term move towards the next support at 0.9764. However, the bullish reversal yesterday can cause short-term rebound. Resistance per hour is 0.9888 and 0.9911. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250.
I am in this trade is still far too ignorant but I never do it even though I do not quite understand what will happen if I make a mistake especially in the value of the currency, there is still a lot that I want to ask a friend of a friend...Quote:
Originally Posted by Anytime