Analytical Review for This Week

[Ex.ness Support]

This week, the dollar will consolidate above 125 yen

As a whole, the May data on the US labor market was better than expected and increased the likelihood of an increase in the federal funds rate in 2015. Last month, the US unemployment rate rose from 5.4% to 5.5%, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 280 thousand with a forecast of 222 thousand, the average hourly wages grew by 0.3% (m/m) with a forecast of 0.2% (m/m). The IMF believes that the US Federal Reserve should raise its key interest rate in the first half of 2016, when the pace of US economic growth and inflation will be higher than the current values. According to the IMF forecasts, this year, the US GDP will grow by 2.5%, but the inflation will reach a 2% level only in 2017.

Greece's debt problem is still putting pressure on European assets. On June 30, Greece will make one payment of 1.6 billion euros to the IMF. This week, the EUR/USD can maintain the 1,105 support with publication of strong data on industrial production and the GDP in the eurozone.

The British pound will be winning back the statistics on the UK foreign trade and industrial production. During the week, the pair GBP/USD could test last week's low of 1.5170.

A likely upward revision of GDP growth in Japan for Q1 2015 may result in fixing of long positions in the USD/JPY pair. The pair's adjusting decline to the 125 level will attract new customers.



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