Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 15th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2016.



FX News Today

Stock markets started to stabilise overnight, as the Yen weakened and helped exporters to bounce back ahead of today�s Fed decision. The BoJ is due to follow and some speculation of further central bank action has also underpinned the first improvement in Topix and Nikkei in five days. Chinese reversed early losses and jumped higher, sparking speculation that state-backed funds may be supporting the market, after MSCI Inc. refused to add China�s domestic equities to the benchmarks indexes. U.S. stock futures are still in the red ahead of the Fed, but FTSE 100 futures are moving higher. Oil prices are down, with the front end Nymex future trading below USD 48 per barrel. Nervousness remains ahead of the round of central bank decisions this week and next week�s Brexit referendum. The events will likely overshadow the data calendar once again, which has U.K. labour market data and European trade numbers.

FOMC began its meeting and announces its policy stance this afternoon at 14:00 ET. While a hike today is off the table, the policy statement and Fed forecasts will be scrutinized for clues on the rate path going forward. Outside of the weak May employment report, most pieces of data have been consistent with GDP growth of 2.6% this quarter. Price pressures have also been on the rise. And these factors support expectations that the FOMC will look to normalize further, and perhaps as soon as July, as is out view, as well as the Median estimate from last week�s Survey. The Fed�s dot plot is likely to again show 2 tightenings this year, though the median rate might be revised slightly lower. We also expect Fed Chair Yellen will be cautiously optimistic on the economy in her press conference, while still acknowledging the downside risks, as she did in her June 6 speech.

Canada Household Leverage Remains Near Record High: Canada�s household leverage remained elevated in Q1, as the ratio of household credit market debt to disposable income slipped ever so slightly to 165.3% from a record high 165.4% in Q4. The historically elevated debt to income ratio continues to highlight a prominent risk associated with the current policy setting. However, the Bank of Canada�s focus is growth and inflation, so rising leverage amid the current ultra accommodative rate environment will continue to be taken in stride by policymakers.

Atlanta Fed�s GDPNow was lifted to 2.8% in Q2 from 2.5% previously in the wake of the gain in May retail sales: �The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on June 14, up from 2.5 percent on June 9. After this morning�s retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.5 percent to 3.9 percent. The next GDPNow update is Friday, June 17.�

Yesterday�s US reports revealed the expected May strength in retail sales and surprisingly large trade prices increases, though we also saw restrained business inventory gains that lowered our Q1 GDP growth estimate to 1.1% from 1.2%, versus the 0.8% prior reported pace. For retail sales, we saw only small prior revisions that had no net impact on our GDP forecasts, with expected May gains for gasoline station and auto dealer sales. For trade prices, we saw big increases in oil import and food export prices, but also big core price gains, and with boosts in prior import price gains that trimmed the skewing of recent trade price strength toward exports.

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Manufacturing: We expect manufacturing shipments, due Wednesday, to grow 1.0% in April (median same at +1.0%) after the 0.9% m/m drop in March and 4.0% plunge in February. A 1.5% gain in export values after the 4.1% drop in March and 6.8% plunge in February provides a compelling reason to forecast a gain in manufacturing shipment values during April.

US NY Fed �Empire State� Index: June producer sentiment kicks off with the release of the Empire State Index on Wednesday. We expect the headline to climb to -1.0 (median -4.0) after a tumble to -9.0 in May from 9.6 in April. Producer sentiment as settled back near recent lows with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures hitting 49 again in May after a spike to 53 in March and subsequent dip to 51 in April.

US Industrial Production: May industrial production is out Wednesday and should reveal a 0.2% (median unchanged) headline decline following a 0.7% increase in April and a 0.9% decrease in March. Capacity utilization should fall to 75.2% (median 75.3%) from 75.4% in April. Factory and mining employment both declined in the May employment report which could indicate downside risk for the release.

US FOMC: We expect no rate hike today but the policy statement and Fed forecasts will be scrutinized for clues on the rate path going forward.

Bank of Canada: Governor Poloz speech.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 14th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th June 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets remain under pressure, with most Asian markets down and U.S. and U.K. stock futures also heading south. Risk aversion continues to dominate amid heightened uncertainty ahead of this week’s round of central bank meetings and next week’s Brexit referendum. The focus has shifted to the wider fallout for the EU and Eurozone spreads are widening sharply amid concerns that a U.K. exit from the EU would set a dangerous precedent. The European calendar focuses on inflation data, with U.K. CPI expected to nudge higher to 0.4% y/y from 0.3% y/y in April. Italy and Spain release final May inflation data, and the Eurozone has production numbers for April.

Brexit Polls push a volatile sterling: Three polls yesterday had the Leave camp ahead and the UK largest circulation newspaper (The Sun) openly came out in favour of a Brexit vote. The FT poll of polls now has Remain on 45% Leave on 47% and Undecided at 9%. Seven of the last ten polls have given the Leave camp the lead. UK government gilts have surged on the uncertainty as sterling falls. GBPUSD is trading below 1.4160, GBPJPY is below 150.00 and EURGBP has rallied as high as 0.7880.

US VIX equity volatility surged sharply since Friday considering the relatively mild drops in the S&P500 since then, indicative of heightened sensitivity to downside price action in stocks. The VIX had traded below 13.0 earlier in June to 2-month lows, but surged above 15.0 Friday to clear 17.0. Monday it gapped out above 18.0 to open at 18.24 and closed at the day high of 20.97 (up 23.14% on the day). Certainly it appears that hedging against downside risks via the VIX has proven popular with several major macro fund managers talking down stocks and up gold. That may be especially true after the June peak at 2,120 stopped just shy of all-time highs of 2,134 before touching a low of 2,085 today, while the 200-day m.a. is well south at 2,015. Brexit risks near-term, domestic terror acts and polarizing November elections further out, not to mention global growth risks, remain gusty headwinds for stock investors.

Fed Policy Outlook: No change in policy is expected from the FOMC two day meeting which starts later today, and the market has largely priced out much chance for a hike this year, according to Fed funds futures, which are also benefiting from flight to quality trades. The soft jobs report and lack of a hint from Yellen of an imminent policy shift indicate the FOMC will remain sidelined this week. Brexit uncertainties and fears of financial market instability should the U.K. vote for Brexit next week, along with weaker growth out of Japan and Asia have seen the futures push out a possible tightening until early 2017. The implied February future suggests a 50-50 bet on a 25 bp hike. We’re still expecting two hikes, with the FOMC acknowledging as much in its forecasts on Wednesday, though we note the Fed is running out of time if it wants to effect such action at a regularly slated meeting, since after Wednesday, there will be only four more, with the November 1, 2 dates seemingly out of the running given the elections.

Main Macro Events Today

UK CPI Inflation in Britain is expected to have sped up slightly in May, but overall price pressures remain significantly subdued as both external and internal factors continue to weigh on consumer price growth. The annual rate of UK inflation is expected to have picked up to 0.4% in May, after slipping to 0.3% a month before, mostly on the back of an earlier Easter this year compared with the previous year. Core inflation, which strips out volatile prices of food and energy, is also seen edging up to 1.3% from 1.2% measured a month before.
US Retail Sales US May retail sales data is out today should reveal a 0.6% (median 0.3%) headline increase with a 0.6% (median 0.3%) increase for the ex-autos figure as well. This follows April figures of 1.3% for the headline and 0.8% for ex-autos. The increase in May vehicle sales and our expectations for further gains in gasoline prices should help lift the headline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 13th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th JUNE 2016.



The Main Macro Events This Week

United States: FOMC Forecast revisions to be released Wednesday after the FOMC meeting should reveal little change in the official GDP and jobless rate estimates from the March meeting, which remain consistent across the forecast horizon with available growth and jobs data. The US economic calendar will have a few last-minute releases that may inform the Fed decision this week, but none sufficient to provide a counter-weight to the tepid May employment report that temporarily curbed the Fed�s appetite for a hike. Among them are the May retail sales report (Tuesday), which may log a healthy 0.6% gain (median 0.3%) vs 1.3% in April. Import prices are set to rise 1.0% in May, compared to a 0.2% gain in export prices. Business inventories are on tap too, expected be unchanged in April (median 0.3%) vs 0.4%. MBA mortgage market applications (Wednesday) are due, followed by an update on PPI set to rise 0.4% (median 0.3%) or -0.1% core. Empire State is seen flat for June (median -0.4) vs -9.0 in May, still not very inspiring, while industrial production may sink 0.2% in May (median unchanged) and capacity use slip to 75.2% from 75.4%. CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% for both headline and core in May (Thursday) and a 1.1% y/y reading won�t rattle the Fed. Philly Fed may resurface to 2.0 in June (median 0.7%) from -1.8, while the current account narrows to -$124.6 bln in Q1 from -$125.3 bln in Q4. Jobless claims are forecast to snap back 16k to 280k, while the NAHB housing market index may tick up to 59 in June from 58. Housing starts may sink 0.2% to 1,170 (Friday).

Canada: In Canada, the April manufacturing report and May CPI release highlight this week�s calendar, which also has appearances from Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins. April manufacturing, due Wednesday, is expected to reveal a 1.0% rebound in shipment values following the 0.9% drop in March. Total CPI, due Friday, is seen expanding at a 1.7% annual pace in May following an identical 1.7% y/y gain in April. But total CPI is seen jumping 0.6% m/m in May after the 0.3% gain in April, as higher gasoline prices and depreciation of the Canadian dollar both conspire to drive the index higher relative to April. The Bank of Canada�s core CPI index is projected to expand at a 2.2% y/y pace in May, matching the 2.2% rate in April. But here too we see acceleration in the monthly growth rate, with core CPI seen expanding 0.5% m/m in May after the 0.2% gain in April. Existing home sales for May (Wednesday) and the May Teranet/National home price index (Tuesday) also feature this week. BoC Governor Poloz speaks (Wednesday) at the Yukon Chamber of Commerce, Whitehorse, YT. A press conference will follow the speech. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks (Friday) to the Canadian Payments Association in Calgary. There is not a press conference.

Europe: Eurozone Finance Ministers will meet again this week and Greece will hope to finally fully complete the bailout review, which would also open the way for the ECB to consider re-instating the waiver on Greek government bonds. This would allow Greek banks to participate in the central bank�s regular refinancing operations and be another step back towards normality. The events calendar also has a German 10-year Bund auction on Wednesday as well as the ECB�s economic bulletin on Thursday and several ECB speakers including Draghi (Friday). The overall message is likely to be the same, namely that the ECB is on hold while keeping the door open for further action if necessary. Data releases won�t change the overall outlook. There is a bunch of final May HICP numbers, with the overall Eurozone reading expected to be confirmed at -0.1% y/y (median same), and core inflation at 0.8% y/y. The ECB already had preliminary numbers at the time of the last meeting and is confident that current measures are sufficient to bring inflation back on a ****ual growth path. The Eurozone also has trade numbers, BoP data and industrial production numbers for April. Production is expected to have rebounded slightly and we are looking for a marginal widening of the trade surplus, but overall data are unlikely to change expectations for a slowdown in overall GDP growth in the second quarter of the year.

United Kingdom: In the shadow of the EU vote, the week�s BoE June policy meeting and data calendar won�t carry as much significance as would usually be the case. The BoE�s MPC (announcing Thursday) will more than likely leave the repo rate at 0.5% by unanimous vote, and we don�t expect much deviation in the tone of the minutes to those of last month, nor last month�s edition of the quarterly Inflation Report. UK inflation data (Tuesday) has us expecting a 0.4% y/y reading on headline CPI (median same), up on April�s 0.3% y/y. This would still be below the 0.5% y/y cycle peak that was seen in March. Labour data covering April and May are also up (Wednesday), where we expect an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.1% (median same). Retail sales for May (Thursday) should show a rebound from April weakness. We expect a 3.7% y/y gain versus the -0.9% figure seen in April.

China: In China, May industrial production (today) came in unchanged compared to the 6.0% y/y April result. May retail sales (today) dipped to 10.0% y/y from 10.1% y/y in April. Foreign direct investment (today) dropped to 3.8% y/y clip in May versus 4.8% previously. Money supply figures are expected during the week.

Japan: Japan kicked the week off with the June MoF business outlook survey (BSI Manufacturing Index), which dropped to -11.1, versus the -7.9 reading seen in May. Revised April industrial production (Tuesday) is seen steady at 3.8% y/y. The BoJ is expected to keep policy unchanged at its meeting which culminates on (Thursday). Improved incoming domestic data, including up****ed Q1 GDP, stronger production, and a delay in the increase in the national sales tax proposed for April 2017 should be enough to keep the Bank on hold for now, while Governor Kuroda will likely want to further assess the impact of negative interest rates before easing further. The Q2 Tankan report, due June 30, may give him the data he needs on that front.

Australia: In Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle delivers remarks (Tuesday) at the ASIFMA-GFMA Market Liquidity Conference 2016 in Hong Kong. His appearance will be via video link. Deputy Governor Lowe delivers a speech (Thursday) at the Economic Society of Australia (QLD) Business Lunch in Brisbane. Economic data features May employment (Thursday), expected to reveal a 10.0k gain following the 10.6k rise in April. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.7% in May, matching April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th MAY 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th MAY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets are pressured after the Fed minutes seemed to back June rate hike backs, with Asian stock markets mostly lower, and U.S. and U.K. stock futures also in the red. Yields are rising as the end to ever expanding monetary policy accommodation is coming into sight and the front end WTI future has fallen back below USD 48 per barrel Bund futures already extended losses in after hour trade yesterday and are likely to remain under pressure. UK markets underperformed yesterday as reduced Brexit bets boosted Sterling, and while GBP has eased somewhat it remains above 1.46 against the USD. The European calendar today as Eurozone current account and U.K. retail sales and the CBI industrial trends survey.

FOMC minutes showed a June hike was �likely�: If data improved as expected. Officials wanted to keep options open for June. But there was a range of views on whether the economic numbers would be adequate to support a tightening next month. Consistent with the April 27 policy statement, many officials noted global risks needed to be closely monitored, with some noting specific worries over China�s currency and Brexit. However, �many� officials continued to see downside risks to the outlook, even as �some� saw global risks as having diminished. Meanwhile, a �few� officials (the more hawkish members) were talking about an April hike. The minutes certainly do set the stage for a tightening next month, though of course data will have to cooperate. Our call for a June hike is supported by the minutes to the April 26, 27 policy meeting.

Australia Adds Jobs: More new jobs were added to the Australian economy last month with the unemployment level remaining at 30 month lows. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.7% (expectations increase to 5.8%); Employment rose 10,800 for March; Full-time jobs fell by 9,300; part-time employment rose by 20,200; Participation rate, a measure of labor force as a share of the population, dropped to 64.8%. It shows that low interest rates are helping sectors such as construction and tourism, however the fall in participation rates and the rise of part-time workers shows suggests only tepid growth.

BoJ seen expanding stimulus by July: According to the consensus view from the latest Reuters survey. 19 of the 22 respondents expect a move by July, with 7 anticipating a move in June and 12 predicting that the stimulus boost will come at the policy meeting in July, which would coincide with BoJ economic forecast updates. The three remaining respondents opted for the two-day meeting ending on Nov-1. 80% of respondents expect a combination of cutting negative rates further and upping the QQE program (two of PM Abe�s three arrows economic-revival plan), although the prevailing -0.1% rate isn�t expected to be touched until Q4. Note that the survey was conducted over the six days to yesterday, thereby missing today�s initial release of Q1 GDP data out of Japan, which smashed expectations at +1.7% q/q, well up on the median forecast for a 0.3% rise. On this, however, caveats apply. As the FT points out, first-estimate GDP data are apt for potentially big revisions in Japan. The report also highlighted that falling investment chopped 0.9 of a percentage point of GDP in Q1, which is seem largely as a consequence of the impact of yen strength on major Japanese businesses. This should maintain Japanese policymakers� desire to weaken the yen, though don�t expect much jawboning on this until the upcoming G7 meetings have come and gone.

Main Macro Events Today

US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: May Philly Fed is out on Thursday and should reveal a headline to increase to 5.0 (median 3.0) from -1.6 in April and 12.4 in March. The already released Empire State Index for May posted a dramatic drop to -9.0 from 9.6 which could spell downside risk to the Philly Fed release. However, we expect some improvement in broad producer sentiment in May with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures ticking up to 52 from 51 last month and 53 in March.

US Initial Jobless: Claims data for the week of May 14th are out today and should reveal a 297k (median 275k) headline following a 294k headline last week and 274k in the week prior. There is a chance that the big jump in claims last week was the result of spring break in NY public schools so there could be an unwind this week. We expect claims to average 275k in May from 259k in April and 264k in March. This would accompany an anticipated 190k nonfarm payroll headline for the month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 18th MAY 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th MAY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, as stronger than expected GDP data out of Japan cast doubt over hopes of further easing and a delay to the sales tax hike, which added to US rate hike bets. FTSE 100 futures are also down. Positive leads then for European bond markets, which already moved higher yesterday, although the 10-year Bund future lost some of its gains in after hour trade. Today�s data calendar brings the final reading of Eurozone April CPI, expected to be confirmed at -0.2% y/y, and UK labour market data. The April claimant count rate is seen steady at 2.1% and the ILO unemployment rate for March unchanged at 5.1% y/y. Earnings growth could show a slight deceleration in the rate excluding bonuses.

Japan�s GDP grew 1.7% in Q1: This following the downward revised 1.7% drop in Q4 (was -1.1%). The magnitude of the increase in Q1 easily outpaced projections (we saw +0.5%), but did follow a hefty downward revision to Q4. While the return to growth dodged a technical recession, the detail suggest underlying momentum is lacking in the economy, despite years of Abenomics and aggressive easing from the BoJ. Notably, an extra day in February due to leap year boosted consumption relative to the previous quarter. Private consumption grew 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q1 after contracting a revised 0.8% in Q4 (was -0.9%). Business spending took a disappointing turn, falling 1.4% (q/q, sa) in Q1 after a revised 1.2% gain in Q4 (was +1.5%). The yen is steady, with USDJPY at 109.20.

Fedspeak: Fed�s Williams and Lockhart both noted June is a live meeting, in their comments at a Politico event. Both are doves, but have been noting the potential for further normalization this year, consistent with the FOMC�s projections of 2 25 bp hikes. Lockhart said it�s too early to draw conclusions about Q2 growth, but he wouldn�t take June off the table. Like several of his colleagues, he warns that the markets are more pessimistic than he is. Neither are voters this year. Fed moderate Kaplan said that the Fed should hike rates �in the not too distant future,� while he sees the household sector in good shape and forecasts a 2% rise in 2016 GDP, though still some slack in the labor force.

Main Macro Events Today

EMU CPI: We expect the headline rate to be confirmed at -0.2% (median same). The decline back into negative territory last month was partly due to special factors with the earlier timing of Easter meaning that holiday related prices, which picked up over Easter, fell back again in April. This distorts the annual rate somewhat and goes some way to explain the swings over the March/April period. In any case, the ECB has already reacted pre-emptively with the March set of easing measures and is now firmly in wait and see mode and focused on implementing what has already been announced, so that any revision won�t change the immediate rate outlook.
FOMC Minutes: Published at 21:00 GMT and should make interesting reading as a number of officials want interest rate hikes as early as June or July, whereas the market is discounting this heavily with only 23% of investors expecting a hike in either month. As ever the words that are used and indeed not used will be scrutinized closely.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 17th MAY 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th MAY 2016.



FX News Today

Oil prices firmed over 3% to hit a peak of $48.16 bbl (at the time of writing), with gold prices hitting a high of $1,290. Oil was supported by a Goldman Sachs report that the oil market had shifted from a supply glut to a deficit earlier than expected. Oil prices in general markets have been supported over last few trading days by news of decreasing US production and output disruptions in Canada and Nigeria. The production cuts are helping to rebalance the global oil market awash with unwanted crude oil and pushing up prices almost 12% since the market rallied from my Buy Area published in the May 5th analysis on oil.

A known gold bull John Paulson reduced his investments on the yellow metal while George Soros and other large investment funds increased their holdings in the metal for the first time in years. This was shown by filings on Monday. Reuters reports that New York-based hedge fund Paulson & Co, led by John Paulson, cut its investment in SPDR Gold Trust, the world�s biggest gold exchanged-traded fund (ETF), by 17 percent to 4.8 million shares, according to US Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

RBA�s May cut was driven by �broad-based� softening in inflation, even as the growth outlook remained largely steady, according to the meeting minutes. They had considered waiting for more information, but of course decided to cut 0.25% to 1.75%. Recall that the CPI fell in Q1, marking the first drop since 2008. Core CPI growth moderated to the slowest pace on record. And labour costs have been soft. The RBA�s target band for underlying inflation is 2-3%, but they lowered it to 1-2% for 2016 in the forecasts released May 6. In our view, another rate cut is likely in June or August.

US NAHB homebuilder sentiment was flat at 58 in May, holding at that relatively firm level for a fourth consecutive month. The current single family sales index was also unchanged at 63 after dipping 2 points to that level in April. The future sales index rose 3 points to 65 after inching up 1 point to 62 last month. The index of prospective buyer traffic was steady at 44. Builders cited the regulatory environment and low inventories as sources of restraint, according to the report, while low mortgage rates and a solid job market underpins.


Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation April CPI: is expected unchanged at 0.5% y/y (median same) while core CPI is seen ebbing back to 1.4% y/y from 1.5% in March. This would closely fit BoE projections. PPI output prices are seen at -0.7% (median -0.8%) after -0.9% in March. However, with the BoE having stressed last week that economic and financial indicators are likely to be �less informative than usual� in light of the uncertainties being thrown up by approaching referendum on EU membership, the figures may not carry the usual potential to impact sterling markets.

US Industrial Production: April industrial production should reveal a 0.3% increase on the month after dropping by 0.6% in both March and February. The capacity utilization rate should rise to 75.0% from 74.8% in March and 75.3% in February. Mining employment in the April report extended the run of recent weakness that the collapse in oil prices has driven and could lend some downside risk to the release.

US CPI The April CPI: should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.4%) headline increase while the core rises by 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows respective March figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the core up 0.1% as well. The declines in gasoline prices over the winter have weighed on price report headlines but we have seen some rebound in oil prices this spring which should begin to bring an end to this effect.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 11th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th APRIL 2016.



Main Macro Events This Week

United States: There is a lot of potentially relevant US data due out this week, including CPI and retail sales. The week starts with March trade prices (Tuesday), where import prices should jump 1.6% (0.9% median) thanks to a rebound in oil (-0.1% ex-petro), while export prices are slated to sink 0.2% (median -0.3%). The Treasury budget is also due for March, with the deficit seen almost doubling to -$94.0 bln versus last March�s -$52.9 bln. Wednesday sees, retail sales, with a flat forecast for the headline (median 0.3%) amid some drag from chain store sales vs -0.1% in February. Excluding autos, sales should rebound 0.3% after the prior 0.1% dip. PPI is set to rise 0.2% headline (median 0.3%) or just 0.1% core, with business inventories seen sinking 0.2% in February. Inflation�s better half, the CPI report is due (Thursday) and expected to rise 0.1% in March (median 0.2%) vs -0.2% in February. Initial jobless claims may dip 7k to 260k (median 270k) for the April 9 week. Empire State is projected to sink to 0.0 in April (median 2.2) vs 0.6 (Friday), along with a 0.4% fall (median unchanged) in industrial production for March vs -0.5% and a drop in capacity use to 75.0% (median 75.4%) vs 75.4%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may hold steady at 91.0 (median 92.0) and the TIC inflow report is also due.

Canada: The Bank of Canada�s policy announcement and MPR (Wednesday) loom large this week. We expect no change in the current 0.50% policy setting to come alongside a slightly more upbeat growth outlook, but one that maintains that ample downside risk to growth is still in place. The take-away from the announcement and MPR is expected to be for an extended period of steady policy, as the Bank remains on the sidelines while past monetary stimulus continues to work through the system and fresh fiscal stimulus comes on-line. Economic data this week is back-loaded, with February new home prices (Thursday) and February manufacturing shipments (Friday) due at the end of the week. Manufacturing shipments are expected to fall 1.5% in February after the 2.3% surge in January. The new home price index is seen expanding 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.1% rise in January. Existing home sales for March (Friday) and the Teranet/National HPI for March (Wednesday) are also due out.

Europe: The Eurozone is once again looking shaky. Ongoing problems in Greek bailout talks have rekindled Grexit fears and with them, the question arises of just how much risk sharing there really is in the Eurozone. Data releases this week focus mainly on final inflation readings for March. German HICP moved back into positive territory and should be confirmed at 0.1% y/y, but with French HICP at -0.1% y/y, Spanish inflation at -1.0% y/y and the Italian HCIP rate at -0.3% y/y, the overall Eurozone CPI (Friday), is expected to be confirmed at a still negative -0.1%. Other data releases include February production and trade data, which are too backward looking to change the overall outlook for the ECB. We expect production to correct -0.9% m/m (median same), from the strong jump in January. The trade surplus meanwhile should widen judging by the improvement in the dominant German number that month, which was backed by a rebound in exports.

UK: The UK calendar has the April BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (Thursday), along with the latest BRC survey of retail sales (Tuesday) and inflation figures (also Tuesday). The BoE is widely expected to maintain an unchanged policy stance, by a unanimous vote. The BRC retail sales release is expected to rebound in March data to +1/4% y/y in the like-for-like measure, up from +0.1% y/y growth in February. Record levels of employment and rising real incomes are underpinning the sector. Headline CPI is expected to tick higher, to +0.4% (median same) from 0.3% in the month previous. The core CPI reading is also see nudging up, to +1.4% y/y from 1.3%. Such outcomes would be consistent with BoE projections.

China: March CPI and PPI have been published earlier Today. Consumer prices were expected to rise to a 2.4% y/y rate from 2.3%, but they remained stuck on 2.3%. PPI however, posted a -4.3% y/y pace from -4.9%, better than expected. March trade surplus (Wednesday) is forecast to have narrowed slightly to $32.0 bln from $32.6 bln. Friday brings the balance of data releases, including March retail sales which are expected to slow to a 10.0% y/y pace from 11.1% previously. March industrial production is seen improving to up 5.7% y/y from 5.4%, while March fixed investment likely ticked up to 10.3% y/y from 10.2%.

Japan: February machine orders have been published earlier Today and the decline was 9.2%, better than the expected 10.0% m/m versus the 15% January rise. March bank loan data is due Tuesday, followed by March PPI (Wednesday) which is see steady at -3.4% y/y. Revised February industrial production data comes on Friday, and is seen at -6.2%, unchanged from the preliminary reading.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia�s Financial Stability Review (Friday) will be of considerable interest. As for economic data, the March employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain following the 0.3k rise in February. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.8%, matching the 5.8% in February. Housing investment (Monday) is expected to rise 1.0% in February after falling 3.9% in January.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 7th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th APRIL 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

BOJ Koruda and Japan Finance Ministry: A reiteration of the Japanese economic approach was emphasized overnight as both the BOJ Governor and the finance ministry chief (Mr Suga) pledged more of the same and that they �Will take steps in FX market if needed�. The YEN continued its surge against its major competitors USDJPY is current trading at 108.8, EURJPY 124.50 and GBPJPY 154.00. The Nikkei 225 was understandably subdued on the news and is currently the lagging Asian stock market.

European Outlook: The bounce back in oil prices, which have risen above USD 38 per barrel, is keeping equity markets underpinned and things continued to improve in Asia overnight, with most markets outside of mainland China in positive territory, although gains have been modest, compared to the rise in the U.S. and the U.K. The Fed minutes, which on balance favoured caution added support, while the rise in the Yen is keeping a lid on Japanese equities. U.K. stock futures are also higher, pointing to opening gains in Europe, with Eurozone markets likely to continue to underperform amid ongoing EUR strength and concerns about the economic and political outlook for the Eurozone as Grexit fears flare up again and push out spreads. The calendar is relatively quiet, with a focus on the ECB, which publishes the minutes to the March meeting and holds a conference on �The ECB and its watchers�.

FOMC minutes: They showed �several� officials argued for a cautious approach regarding the potential for an April hike, which was debated at the March meeting. As Yellen commented in her recent speech, and in her press conference, many participants thought the current rate asymmetry made it prudent to wait for more information on the underlying strength of economic activity or inflation before taking another step to reduce accommodation. The minutes revealed global concerns remained very relevant � the word �global� was used 13 times in the participants� discussion of current conditions (�risks,� or some variation, appeared 16 times). Again the FOMC reiterated the next move would be data, not calendar, dependent. We�re not seeing anything really new in the minutes versus what we knew from the policy statement, the SEP, and subsequent Fedspeak.

Fedspeak, Positions Confirmed: Fed hawk Mester expects �****ual� rate hikes this year in a repeat of previous missives on the topic, in discussing the economy and monetary policy from Cleveland. Bullard also stated his expectation that inflation will overshoot the 2% target and that 2.2% inflation is better than 1.5% inflation and that all meetings are �live�. So more of the same from the Presidents.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB�s Draghi Speech
Due to speak about the economic and financial situation in Europe at the Portuguese President�s Council, in Lisbon. The eloquent and reserved Mr Draghi is always one to listen too carefully. Portuguese Bonds were dragged down yesterday along with Grexit talk. Interesting location for his latest speech.

Fed�s Yellen Speech
In New York the four latest Chairs (Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen) of the FOMC are meeting and Mrs Yellen is due to speak. As the incumbent Chair she is unlikely to use the occasion to utter anything new or indeed controversial. The words from her predecessors on the other hand could prove more interesting.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 05th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 05th APRIL 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

RBA leaves rates on hold: The Reserve Bank of Australia has left interest rates on hold for the 11th straight month, despite growing unease about a stubbornly high Australian dollar. The official overnight cash rate target has been left at 2 per cent, where it has been since last being cut in May 2015. The Reserve Bank has attempted to lift expectations that the bank may cut rates, with its governor Glenn Stevens warning that a rising Australian dollar could push it to cutting rates again. “The Australian dollar has appreciated somewhat recently. In part, this reflects some increase in commodity prices, but monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role,” he wrote in his post-meeting statement. Financial markets are pricing in around a one-in-three chance of rates falling next month, with a 50 per cent chance of a cut by August. AUDUSD is currently trading at 0.7600, having been as high as 0.7620.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of mainland China were under pressure, with the Nikkei underperforming. US and European stock futures are also lower, as risk aversion continues to weigh on markets and oil prices settle below USD 36 per barrel. The RBA kept policy on hold, but left the door open for easing steps as it sends a warning on the strong AUD. The RBI cut rates by 25 bp, also as expected. The European calendar has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session, followed by the final reading of the Eurozone Services PMI and the UK. Services PMI.

Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari sees moderate growth: As his outlook for the U.S. economy and views current monetary policy as “about right.” He also noted that it is compelling that the U.S. labor force participation rate is on the rise as he wants to keep putting people back to work as long as inflation stays below the Fed’s goal. “That’s a good thing and we should let that process continue while inflation is running below our target,” he noted. Sounds like he’ll be in Yellen’s dovish camp, barring any unexpected jump in inflation. A little less controversial than the his start as a regional Fed president by critiquing banks for still being too big to fail. Kashkari was speaking at a symposium on banking regulation.

US factory orders dropped 1.7% in February: After a revised 1.2% January gain (was 1.6%). Though the headline decline wasn’t as weak as projected, weakness was broad-based and this doesn’t bode well for growth. Durable goods were revised down to a 3.0% decline from -2.8% previously. Transportation orders fell 6.2%. Excluding transportation, orders were down 1.3% compared to a 1.4% gain previously (revised from 1.7%). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft slid 2.5% from 3.3 (revised from a 3.4% increase). Shipments dropped 0.7%, with nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft falling 1.7% from -1.4% (revised from -0.4%). Inventories declined 0.4% from -0.5% in January. The inventory-shipment ratio was steady at 1.37 (January was revised up from 1.36).

Main Macro Events Today

U.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM
The March ISM-NMI is out later today to close out the March producer sentiment readings. We expect the headline to improve to 54.0 (median 54.1) from 53.4 in February The already released ISM improved to 51.8 from 49.5 and other major measures all improved as well. Broadly, we expect the ISM-adjusted measure of all measures to pop to 52 for the month after holding at 49 in the two months prior.

Eurozone Services PMI
The Eurozone PMI Services PMI is also released today and no change to previous months 53.7 reading is expected. German figures are expected to remain resilient at 55.5 whilst French figures are expected to remain the weakest of the reporting countries at 51.2.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 17th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th MARCH 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside Japan moved higher overnight, following on from gains in the U.S. after the FOMC trimmed its dot plot to imply just two tightening�s in 2016, which aligns the Fed�s view with the market. Japanese markets were weighed down by renewed strength in the Yen, following the dovish Fed statement. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also up and oil prices are starting to eye USD 39 per barrel. So good leads for European stock markets, but also bond futures and with the Fed statement out of the way the focus shifts to BoE and SNB meetings today.

Fed Trims Dots and Remains Cautious: The FOMC statement reflects ongoing caution on global economic and financial developments, though optimism was maintained on the domestic front, and especially with regard to the labor market. The Fed also raised the profile of inflation, which �picked up� but remains shy of its target. The Fed�s mostly downward forecast revisions for the dot-plot and GDP, along with steadier inflation and job outlooks, left the markets taking a dovish cue from the proceedings, though Yellen left open the door for a move as early as April. She also the Fed is �not activity debating or considering negative rates,� or looking into other methods of accommodation. The Fed still has a range of tools it can use if it finds itself back in that situation of needing to add more stimulus. The adoption and impact of negative rates by other central banks is being studied.

UK Chancellor Osborne announced GBP 3.5 bln in spending cuts as he presents the government�s 2016-17 budget. He said that cuts would be implemented towards the end of the current parliament, in 2019-20. On the Brexit issue, he argued that the UK is �better off� inside a �reformed� EU and that the official UK growth forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility were based on the country remaining within the union. UK growth was revised down to 2.0% for 2016, down from 2.4% forecast in November, and 2.2% in 2017, down from 2.5% previously envisaged. He quoted the OBR�s view that leaving the EU would �usher in an extended period of uncertainty.�

CPI better than expected. The 0.168% February US. CPI drop was upstaged by a sturdy 0.283% core price rise, as the expected 6.0% energy price drop and 0.2% food price rise accompanied hefty gains of 1.6% for apparel prices that extended a 0.6% January rise, a second consecutive 0.5% rise for medical care service prices, and a 0.3% rise for owners� equivalent rent after four consecutive 0.2% increases. We saw 0.2% gains for new vehicle and tobacco prices.

Main Macro Events Today

BoE Decision: There is a strong consensus for the BoE to stand pat on policy this week, and we expect the minutes to reveal a unanimous vote to maintain the repo rate at 0.5% (median same). This would make it exactly seven years the repo has been at its historic low. Weakness in the February PMI surveys and the benign inflation backdrop should ensure a dovish-tilted tone in the minutes, though still keeping the door open to an eventual rate hike, which markets are now discounting to be in Q1 next year. It will be interesting to see if there is any mention of �Brexit� risks, which kicked into gear following the PM Cameron�s renegotiated membership terms and consequence setting of a referendum data (June 23).September.

SNB Decision: The SNB will have eyed the ECB�s move carefully and especially the fact that the deposit rate cut was rather modest and so far the impact on the CHF proved temporary, could allow the Swiss central bank to hold off with another rate cut at its policy meeting on Thursday. Much will depend on developments in forex markets and even if rates are on hold this week, the SNB has shown before that it can always act at short notice and outside its quarterly policy meetings.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.