Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 5th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 5th October 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

The EURUSD daily chart bull cross of the 10, 50 SMA moving average is proving to be a reliable indicator, as short term price action is holding above the 6 week lows since the cross was spotted. Short term bullish price momentum is expected to be maintained since price seems to be bouncing off the bottom end of the 1.1090 � 1.1460 expected trading range. Short term long position holders should be on alert for profit taking around the September 18th high (1.1460), while short traders should watch for a break below 1.1090 that could open up the way towards the 1.0920�s.

Growth worries will leave Fed, BoE on hold, while there is now an increase risk of European Central Bank and Bank of Japan stimulus after the September jobs data was a disappointment across the board. Data showed only a 142k payroll rise after 59k in downward revisions, a 0.2% hours-worked drop with a workweek downtick to 34.5, and a 13k payroll drop in the bellwether goods sector led by mining and factories that translated to a 1.0% hours-worked plunge. Hourly earnings were flat. The U.S. labor force dropped to a 5.05% new cycle-low, while the labor force participation rate plunged to a 62.4% 38-year low.

China is on a holiday through Wednesday and Australia is closed today for Labor Day.

The magnitude of slowing in the global economy is the biggest uncertainty facing investors and central banks at the moment. The disappointing U.S. jobs data, on the back of the FOMC�s decision to delay liftoff, decreases investor confidence. The upside is that consumer spending and record U.S. auto sales give a better picture of the U.S. economy. Investors will now focus on the upcoming data out this week for further short term direction.



Currency Movers Charts

The USD is weaker across the board and sold off immediately on the disappointing U.S. jobs report. The impact on the Fed rate-hike decision is more uncertainty and markets will increase in volatility with a growing feeling that the Fed has miscalculated.

The GBP is trading lower as the U.K. economy continues to look a little softer and expectations are that the BoE will not tighten monetary policy prior to a move by the Fed. The PMI fell slightly to 51.5 in September from 51.6 in August, which was revised up from 51.5. The reading has been running above 50 for thirty straight months. The pace of growth seen in the second and third quarters of this year have been weaker than seen earlier in the current growth sequence.

The CAD jumped immediately after the US employment numbers were released. The much smaller than expected numbers spooked the markets because the widely anticipated Fed rate hike now looks as though it will have to wait well into next year.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

� GBP Services PMI:: Unexpectedly dove to a 29-moth low of 53.3 in the headline reading of the September survey. Total business activity and new business growth both came in at 29-month lows. Outstanding business activity consequently grew at only a fractional rate, and the long-term outlook fell to its weakest reading since August 2014. Input prices jumped, due to salary pressures, though output prices rose only slightly while overall price pressures remained weak by historical standards. The only bright spot was employment growth, with job creation the best since June.

� USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The U.S. ISM-NMI is expected to fall to 58.0 from 59.0 in August. The July spike set a new post-recession high. Forecast risk: downward, given weakness in earlier month releases. Market risk: downward, as a run of weak data could impact rate hike time-lines. The ISM-adjusted figure for the ISM-NMI tends to track that of the Philly Fed.

[IMG]http://analysis.********.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OCT-5-EC-V1-.png[/IMG]

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 2nd October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 2nd October 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD short-term trend remains flat and range bound with a price recovery towards the 1.1460 area looking unlikely as long as price remains below the 1.1280 level. Yesterday’s U.S. report revealed a disappointing September ISM drop and a downward bump in the construction spending though the three months ending in August was not enough to push the EURUSD to close above the lower end of the 1.12’s (61.8%). Potential trade setups for the short term are to enter short positions near 1.1280 for a 1.0930-1.0920 target; alternatively, on a clean break of 1.13, long positions could be opened for a 1.1460 initial target.

The European calendar yesterday was focused on manufacturing PMI readings. The overall Eurozone September manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 52.0, in line with the preliminary reading and down from 52.3 in the previous month. France is returning to growth and only Greece is in contraction territory, although, even the Greek manufacturing PMI has started to pick up again. So, pretty much a confirmation of what the ECB sees – ongoing growth, but with reduced momentum, even if the recovery is broadening somewhat.

The UK manufacturing PMI was slightly higher than expected at 51.5, which is only marginally down from August’s 51.6. The sector continues to expand, although it is holding just above the two-year low point at 51.4.

Bank of Japan sees little immediate need for adding stimulus according to Bloomberg headlines.

Fed Williams repeated his rate hike call for “sometime later this year” in his speech from Salt Lake City. The news shouldn’t sway the markets much ahead of today’s payrolls report.

NYMEX crude has fallen back to $45.20 lows, after peaking at $47.08 earlier. The move comes as the National Hurricane center shifts the path of the hurricane further East, and away from energy infrastructure on the northeastern coast.



Currency Movers Charts

The JPY is weaker as Japan’s Tankan survey of business sentiment this week found the index for large manufacturers to be slightly worse than expected. A pattern that has been persisting since mid-August with periodic bouts of demand for the safe haven of the yen having been interspersed with bouts of relative calm. In the background are expectations for the BoJ to expand its QQE program at its Oct-30 policy meeting.

The EUR has drifted modestly lower, to the 1.1160 area after failing to hold gains above 1.1200 on several attempts over the last day.

The GBP is mostly stronger as the U.K. construction PMI rose to 59.9 in the headline of the September survey, up from the 57.3 reading of the August survey and above the 57.5 median forecast. Residential construction rose at the quickest pace in a year, and job creation lifted to its best level in three months.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR ECB Draghi’s Speech: Draghi is taking a “wait and see stance” and with core inflation actually trending higher, labour markets stabilizing, wage growth picking up and credit conditions also improving it is not hard to see why.

• USD Factory Orders: August factory orders are expected to fall 1.5% with inventories down 0.1%.Forecast risk: downward, given the weaker top-line durable goods numbers. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timing.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 1st October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 1st October 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price continues to lack direction within the daily chart and it is beginning to appear that a trading range may be forming between the 1.1460 and 1.1090 levels over the short term. This period of lackluster price action should remain as the market waits for the U.S. jobs data due out on Friday. Traders should look towards commodity prices for any signs of a bottoming which may contradict data that still points to slower global growth. The likelihood of a stronger USD and weaker EUR should remain as the main trend into the year end as fallout from the European automotive industry and the likelihood of further ECM QE increases.

Today’s mixed European PMI readings will give ECB policy makers something to argue about at the next council meeting, especially as downside risks are picking up in light of developments in the global economy and the fallout from the emission scandal for European automakers. The current mixed readings are clearly showing up in the EUR as price has yet to choose a direction with trader’s undecided on which side of the trade to take.

The global stock market rebound is still continuing for now, despite a dip in Japan’s Tankan index, and stabilization in China’s manufacturing PMI at contraction levels. The USD has been trading firmer against the EUR and GBP over the last 5 trading days on the back of a strong Wall Street close and follow-up gain in Asian stock markets. The AUD and CAD, meanwhile, rallied to one-week highs versus the USD, while the NZD hit a two-week peak.



Currency Movers Charts

The EUR is mostly weaker against the majors as the Eurozone manufacturing PMI suggests a slight slowdown in overall growth dynamics, but a more balanced picture across the Eurozone.

The GBP is trading mixed after the UK manufacturing PMI came in fractionally above market forecast.

The CHF is sharply lower in the wake of an unexpected dip in the Swiss SVME manufacturing PMI.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Manufacturing PMI: The UK manufacturing PMI is fractionally above forecast at 51.5 in September data. The survey this month indicates stabilization in the sector at moderate expansion, holding just above the two-year low point at 51.4, which was seen in June. Sterling has traded modestly higher in the wake of the data.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 270k (median 270k) in the week-ended September 26. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,213k for the week-ended September 19. Forecast risk: downward, as volatility concerns could give businesses pause.

• USD Manufacturing ISM: The September ISM is expected to rise to 52.0 from 51.1 in August. Forecast risk: upward, given strong component data in the early month reports. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 30th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 30th September 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD daily chart observations show a pause in the August price advance from 1.0850 to 1.1713 with current price lacking direction. The fact that price had stopped near the 260 period moving average around the 1.17 area gives reason that downward pressure on price is still present. Further moving average analysis spots a bullish double moving average cross of the 10 and 50 MA that accrued around mid August. Additionally, a bullish stochastic oscillator supports my technical view that price may attempt to make a new lower top sub 1.1460 before tracing out some range trading between 1.1460 and 1.1090. Traders may look to stand aside while price trades in a range or attempts to play the range between the relevant support and resistance levels indicated on the above EURUSD daily chart.

The German jobs market is looking healthy as the jobless rate was unchanged at 6.4% and wage growth is accelerating, which together with low inflation is pushing up disposable income and underpinning consumption. France has been underperforming Germany amid the lack of structural reforms and weak productivity growth, but latest confidence indicators suggest that despite the fundamental weakness in the French economy, there is somewhat of a cyclical recovery that is having a positive effect.

ECB’s Hansson: “Everything is possible” on QE. The Finnish central bank head said at a conference in Italy that “it is too early to discuss changes to the quantitative easing program”. He added that there are “moderate” inflation pressures in the Eurozone and that “a lot depends on how inflation will develop, if it slows or accelerates”. So for now the ECB remains in wait and see mode, while keeping the door to further easing wide open.

Asian stocks rallied. The Nikkei 225 closed with the solid 2.7% gain and Australia’s ASX 200 with an impressive 2.1% rise, while the Shanghai Composite was showing just over a 1% advance in late PM session.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index in September rose to 103 from 101.3 in August. This points to a continuation of strong consumer spending.



Currency Movers Charts

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The JPY is trading slightly higher across the board even through Japan Retail Sales shrank in July, the AUD is sharply lower as continued weakness in China and commodities prices will dominate the path of the AUD.

The EUR is showing some signs of strength as price trades in a recent range as the market wait for the U.S. jobs report data on Friday.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP UK Q2 GDP data show an unexpected down revision to 2.4% y/y from the 2.6% provisional estimate, though the q/q figure is unchanged at 0.7% growth. The quarterly growth figure is an improvement on Q1′s 0.4%, though deteriorating global conditions and survey evidences point to a ebb in Q3 growth back to a 0.5% rate.

• EUR German retail sales: Dropped 0.4% m/m,less of a correction from the strong rise in July but against consensus expectations for a slight rise over the month. Retail sales cover less than 50% of overall consumption and are likely understating overall trends, although annual increases in retail sales also remain robust as low unemployment, sizable wage gains and low inflation boost real disposable income.

• USD Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index Producer sentiment looks poised to improve slightly with the ISM-adjusted average holding at 51 from August and 53 in July and June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 29th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 29th September 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD has been moving higher despite Yellen’s comments last week that the Fed is likely to raise rates by the end of the year. This suggests that the potential rate hikes are already priced in the EURUSD or alternatively markets just don’t believe the Fed will follow through and action on their promises. The move higher from the Bollinger Band support has lifted EURUSD near 1.1296 resistance where it has faced some supply and momentum has slowed down. There is support at 1.1210 that roughly coincides with a bullish pin bar high from Friday. The 50 Day SMA is pointing higher and has been supporting price while Stochastics point higher. EURUSD is ranging while many other EUR pairs are also in a range mode and currently at resistance. These include EURCAD, EURNZD, EURGBP and EURAUD. Either EUR has to slowly push through all these resistances or alternatively it needs to react lower and look for lower levels to bounce from and then have another attempt at the resistances. There is weakness in the EURUSD 1h picture at the time of writing. The 60 min chart created a lower high after a shooting star candle at resistance. The nearest support levels are 1.1212 and 1.1115 while the nearest resistance level is at 1.1296.

Fed’s Evans said an “extra-patient” approach to tightening is warranted in his prepared remarks on Thoughts on Leadership and Monetary Policy. Remember, Evans is a dove who sided with the consensus to delay tightening at the September 16, 17 meeting. He added “later liftoff…and a ****ual subsequent approach…best position the economy for the potential challenges ahead” and warned that there are “substantial costs to premature normalization.” He wants to see upward movement in inflation before he pulls the trigger and worries that the slowdown in China and weaker energy prices could damp inflation. He did acknowledge that his view is somewhat more accommodative versus the Fed median estimate. According to Fed dove Evans: the Fed is closer to a rate hike and the Fed needs to communicate that, but China risk did influence the September decision. The Chicago Fed voter noted that more accommodation would be needed “if things were to weaken very much.” This is pretty much in line with earlier remarks arguing in favor of delay, but Evans has been one of the more outspoken doves for some time.

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was revised up to 1.8% for Q3 compared to the 1.4% previous estimate last week. As the Atlanta Fed states: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.8 percent on September 28, up from 1.4 percent on September 24. The model’s forecast of the growth rate of real personal consumption expenditures in the third quarter increased from 3.2 percent to 3.5 percent after this morning’s report on personal income and outlays from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.” That puts the model closer to the 2.5% consensus of Blue Chip economists than any time since early August, compared to our own GDP forecast of 3.0% for Q3. See the Atlanta Fed website for more detail.

US Dallas Fed manufacturing index edged up a bit to -9.5 in September, from -15.8 in August. But it’s still a 9th consecutive negative print and reflects the ongoing weakness resulting from the plunge in oil. The employment component fell to -6.1 from -1.4, a 5th consecutive sub-zero number. The workweek was -11.1 from 0.6, and wages slipped to 15.6 versus 18.2. New orders improved to -4.6 from -12.5. Prices paid were -0.3 from -8.0. Production, however, rose to 0.9 versus -0.8. The 6-month activity index rose to 4.8 from 3.4.



Currency Movers Charts

Negative news flow around the mining industry and Chinese economic weakness has once again pressured the AUD. One of the news items this morning was that mining giant Glencor’s shares are down over 70% year to date after the shares dropped 30% without any particular news item. The price of shares has come down together with the price of Copper and Steel. While AUD has lost ground money has flowed into JPY and EUR since yesterday’s close.

Over the last three days we’ve seen money flowing out of NZD, CAD and AUD while JPY, EUR and USD have attracted funds. This has lifted up trending EURNZD to a resistance just below 1.8000. AUDUSD moved to 0.6938 support as suggested in my report yesterday. USDJPY is trading at support and in daily Bollinger Bands at the bottom end of the recent trading range. AUDJPY is also trading at daily Bollinger Band support which suggests that the JPY move is getting overdone. CHFJPY also created a bullish pin bar yesterday and signals therefore a move higher in the pair.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

[B]• UK BoE Lending: We expect a rise in headline mortgage approvals of 69.8k in September (median 70.0k) after August’s 68.8k tally. The mortgage market is being underpinned by a strong labour market, rising real incomes, and something of a rush to secure a low-rate mortgage deal before the BoE pulls the rate hike trigger. Lending to non-financial businesses will be a focus as this has been a weak spot in the UK’s recovery story to date.

• Eurozone ESI: ESI Economic Confidence is expected to fall to 104.0 (median same) from 104.2 in the previous month. Italian and French national data were surprisingly strong and there is room for an upside surprise. Overall, the overall numbers remain at high levels, consistent with ongoing expansion. So far domestic demand remains underpinned by strong consumption, which in turn is boosted by stabilising labour markets and a pick up in wage growth, but downside risks have clearly increased, as external demand is threatened by the slowdown in emerging markets and as the emission scandal is hanging over European automakers.

• U.S. Consumer Confidence: September consumer confidence is out Tuesday and is expected to decline to 97.0 (median 97.0) from 101.5 in August. Other measures of confidence have already declined in September with Michigan Sentiment falling to 87.2 from 91.9 in August and the IBD/TIPP poll dropping to 42.0 from 46.9 in August.

[IMG]http://analysis.********.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/2015-09-29_1054.png[/IMG]

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 24th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 24th September 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

Draghi disappointed and wasn’t as dovish as expected. This helped the EURUSD rally. This morning the pair has been fighting the 1.1214 resistance today and even formed a 4h pin bar at the level but has now pushed itself through the level. The last week’s low at 1.1214 caused the resistance. As the pair is trading near the lower end of the weekly price range and encouraged by the turnaround at the support yesterday traders were able to push the price higher. Nearest support range is at 1.1017 – 1.1087 while the first resistances are at 1.1261 and then 1.1388. The pair will face 4h Bollinger bands and the 50 period SMA at the same levels with the 1.1261 resistance.

Elsewhere EURCHF has reinstalled itself in the mid-1.09s after ECB’s Draghi didn’t produce the dovish sound-bites that many had expected at his testimony before the European parliament yesterday. The Swiss economy minister Schneider-Ammann also said yesterday that “we travel in the direction of purchasing power parity,” and that “his journey is not yet finished, as purchasing power remains significantly above 1.20 Swiss francs per euro.”

The SNB’s announcement of unchanged policy last Thursday, and a renewed pledge to intervene in the currency market if needed, had little impact. The central bank continues to class the franc as being “significantly overvalued,” though it has had some success in undermining the franc’s status as a safe haven, with deeply negative deposit rates having caused a steady drip feed of yield-searching Swiss fund outflows. The franc is trading some 6% lower than levels seen a couple of months ago.

German Ifo business confidence unexpectedly improved in September, driven, not by an improvement in the current conditions reading but a rise in the expectations number, the first since July. The current conditions index actually dipped. Overall readings remain at high levels and the diffusion index showed that optimists now outnumber pessimists across all sectors. The breakdown also reveals that sentiment remains driven by consumption and retail trade, with low unemployment, sizeable wage gains and low inflation boosting real disposable income.

German consumer confidence drops sharply. The Gfk consumer confidence reading for October fell to 9.6 from 9.9 in the previous month. The much weaker than expected number adds to concerns about the outlook, although the overall reading remains at a very high level in a long term comparison. The breakdown, which is available until September, shows a sharp decline in overall business expectations, which also depressed income expectations and the willingness to buy.

French Sep business confidence held steady at 100 in September, but manufacturing confidence improved on a marked rise in the own company production outlook to 14 from 8 in the previous month. The better than expected numbers tie in with the improvement in France’s PMI readings, released yesterday, which suggested a move back into expansion territory for both services and manufacturing sectors. Still, today’s survey also showed the reading for overall order-books falling further into negative territory, despite the fact that foreign order books remained stable.



Currency Movers Charts

Over the last five days GBP has lost a lot of ground against all the other competitors except AUD which has been the weakest of the lot. This has brought the GBPUSD to levels that could attract buyers. It is trading at weekly Bollinger bands and at a daily pivotal candle but the nearest resistance level is fairly close at 1.5330 while the nearest support level is at 1.5162. Other GBP pairs are also near support levels: GBPCAD bounced yesterday and formed a daily pin bar and GBPNZD has fallen to 4h Bollinger Bands and has pivotal support nearby.

AUDUSD is approaching daily Bollinger bands and support which indicates that it is time to close the shorts opened after the shooting stars were formed.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of September 19th should reveal an increase to 270k (median 271k) after a prior dip to 264k from 275k. Claims are continuing to strike a lean path as we head into fall and September looks poised to average 272k from 275k in August and 272k in July. This supports our forecast for further strength in September employment where we expect a 205k nonfarm payroll headline with the unemployment rate steady at 5.1%.

• US New Home Sales: August new home sales should reveal a 5.4% headline increase to a 515k (median 515k) pace in August following a 507k clip in July and a 481k pace in June. Major housing measures have eased in August with both existing home sales and starts dropping back from firm summer readings. However, sentiment remains strong and the NAHB climbed to 61 in August from 60 in July.

• US Durable Goods: August durable goods data is expected to show a 3.0% (median -0.5%) decline for orders with shipments down 0.5% and inventories up 0.2%. This follows respective July figures of 2.2% for orders, 1.0% for shipments and -0.1% for inventories. August saw a general slowing in other transport and industrial measures with industrial production down 0.4% for the month, Boeing orders falling to 52 from 101 and the ISM declining to 51.1 from 52.7.

[B]• Fed Chair Yellen’s upcoming speech is keeping the markets nervous,/B] though we doubt she’ll change her tune or give any new policy clues. The FOMC has already lost some credibility by not hiking rates last week while citing concerns over China, global growth, and low inflation, and back tracking would further erode market trust. She should leave the door open for a rate hike next month, or in December by reiterating all meetings are in play, and stating the Committee is monitoring data and financial conditions. The Fed’s Lockhart speaks again shortly and is expected to repeat prior comments.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 23rd September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 23rd September 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

I stated in yesterday’s report that EURUSD should move further into support and closer to the 50 day SMA before it can attempt a turnaround. This is indeed what happened: this morning price hit the 50 day SMA and the Bollinger Bands. Apart from trading at Bollinger and SMA support the pair is at levels that turned it higher from on 4th September. However, the latest weekly pivot candle low is at 1.1214, which is relatively near to the current trading levels. This implies that any rally from the current levels might be short lived and therefore probably doesn’t encourage buyers to buy the EURUSD today. Draqhi speech (1pm GMT today) is not expected to contain specific measures but is still expected to have a dovish tune. I therefore expect that the pair will test the 1.1017 – 1.1087 support range today.

French PMIs unexpectedly improve, with the manufacturing reading rising above the 50-point no change mark to 50.4 from 48.3 in the previous month. The services reading rose to 51.2 from 50.6. It seems the French economy is finally back in expansion territory, although readings have been volatile and while there may be a cyclical recovery, helped by the stabilisation elsewhere in the Eurozone, France’s underlying problems remain largely unaddressed, which heralds further weakness ahead.

Eurozone composite PMI fell to 54.0 in September from 54.3 in the previous month. The manufacturing reading dropped to 52.0 from 52.3 and the services to 54.0 from 54.0. Readings are broadly in line with our forecast, but slightly below consensus. The overall numbers remain firmly above the 50 point mark, thus pointing to ongoing robust expansion across both sectors and in the overall economy, while the country breakdown showed France finally catching up and thus a more balanced picture. Growth may not be accelerating, but at least so far it is still consolidating, even as clouds gather on the horizon.

German PMIs decline, but remain at healthy levels. In contrast to the French PMI readings, the German numbers corrected more than anticipated, with the manufacturing reading falling to 52.5 from 53.3 and the services number dropping to 54.3 from 54.9. Despite the correction, the numbers still point to robust expansion in both sector and continue to look healthy compared to France. Domestic demand in particular is boosting the German recovery, with low unemployment and inflation leading to very strong gains in real disposable income. However, this is not really sustainable growth in the medium to long term and investment remains an issue, as is the slowdown in emerging market economies, which is hitting German exports. The emission scandal meanwhile is a further negative for automakers going ahead.



Currency Movers Charts

I highlighted in the September 18th report that AUDUSD was trading at a resistance and formed a daily shooting star candle. Those that traded accordingly have since enjoyed a great short trade. Today AUD is down against all the other major currencies as well. EURAUD formed a narrow bodied pin bar yesterday and has been rising higher today. GBPAUD has continued its turnaround and has moved to 2.1840 resistance that has now caused a reaction lower. AUDJPY has also been moving down after I highlighted it in my yesterday’s report. AUDCAD has been falling in line with the other AUD pairs but the fall has been helped by the Crude rising today almost by 0.90%.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• China PMI: Caixin/Markit flash manufacturing PMI fell to 47.0 in September from 47.3 in August. It’s a 3rd straight monthly decline, the 7th consecutive reading below the 50 expansion/contraction mark, and is the lowest level since March 2009. The output component dropped to 45.7 from 46.4, while the new orders component slid to the lowest print since November 2011. The drop is exacerbating concerns over slowing growth.

• French Q2 GDP was confirmed at 0.0% q/q, while the annual rate was revised up marginally to 1.1% y/y from 1.0% y/y reported initially. The stagnation in the second quarter has to be seen in conjunction with the strong first quarter, but nevertheless, the disappointing number also reflects chronic underperformance of the French economy, which is struggling to come to grips with its structural problems.

• ECB Draghi Speech: The ECB President will testify before the European Parliament today and expectations that he will deliver a very dovish statement are mounting. The ECB’s official line at the last meeting was that it’s too early to assess the impact of global headwinds for the inflation outlook, but that the ECB is ready to act again if the objective is being pushed further out. The central bank is hedging its bets while watching global developments, but also forex markets. In our view, the currency may well be the decisive factor that could trigger further ECB easing, even if Draghi won’t admit that. So for now, we expect a dovish statement, but no firm commitment of further measures.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 22nd September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 22nd September 2015.



EURUSD, 240 min

In the last Currency Movers report I pointed out several technical factors that should cause the bulls to be cautious. And they sure did! EURUSD tumbled down from the 1.1463 resistance identified in the report. Today the pair is trading above 1.1151 support level we identified in the chart in September 18th analysis. Today’s low has been 1.1153. Stochastics is now getting oversold while price is trading near lower Bollinger Bands and the 50 day SMA. We have a pin bar in the 240 min chart as buyers are trying to step in but there has been no follow through. The resistance at 1.1210 has been holding them back. This suggests price should move further into support and closer to the 50 day SMA before it can attempt a turnaround. As the pair is at support it is likely that the weakness is soon overdone and we’ll first see a slowdown in the rate of decline and then a counter-move to the down move that took place over the last two days. If this takes place the 1.1280 looks like a realistic target for the move after which I’m expecting further decline. Significant daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1093 and 1.1280.

Yesterday’s dollar-driven decline in EURUSD came at the wake of hawkish remarks from Fed’s Bullard and, to a lesser extent, Lacker. Bullard, presently a non-FOMC voter, said that there is a “powerful case to be made” for rate lift-off. This contrasted with ECB’s Praet, who said in remarks after the European close that the central bank would “forcefully” react should the inflation environment worsen. There is a bearish case to be made for EURUSD despite the Fed’s relatively dovish guidance, as the dollar has yield advantage, particularly at the long end, and with the ECB likely to counter any euro strength with its own dovish guidance.

The September UK CBI industrial trends undershot expectations, unexpectedly dropping to a -7 reading in the headline total orders reading, down form 0 in August, though above July’s cycle low at -10. Export orders dove sharply to -24, down from -6 in August, while the expectations balance fell to a +9 reading, the lowest since October 2013. The strong pound, which is near seven-year highs in trade-weighted terms, is blighting the export performance, which continues to be the weak link in the manufacturing sector.

Praet: ECB would “forcefully react” if inflation objective pushed out further. Praet was careful not to sound too pessimistic about global headwinds, saying that the ECB doesn’t “want to create of course self-fulfilling expectations at the same time by conveying pessimistic messages” and repeated the central bank’s message from the last meeting that it is “too early to draw firm conclusions about the environment, it is too early to tell”, but he also stressed that the ECB doesn’t want to deny “that the situation can be very unfavorable in the European context”. The central bank is hedging its bets while watching global developments, but also forex markets. The currency may well be the decisive factor that could trigger further ECB easing, even if Draghi won’t admit that. Earlier in the day Praet still said that there are some signs that inflation has turned the corner, but the comments confirm that the ECB wants to send a dovish message and Draghi will have a chance to clarify the ECB’s stance at tomorrow’s testimony to the European Parliament.

SF Fed study says market based inflation expectations are poor predictors of future inflation. Remember the FOMC has been distinguishing between market based measures and survey based measures in its recent policy statements, noting that the former had moved lower while the latter had remained stable. The market based measures that were studied were TIPS break evens and inflation swap rates, while the authors looked at 2 types of survey measures, including the Philly Fed’s Survey of Private Forecasters and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, along with methods incorporating “no-change” forecasts based on current CPI values. According to the study published in the current FRBSF Economic Letter, “a simple constant inflation rate corresponding to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target consistently performs best.” Maybe the FOMC shouldn’t worry too much about the softening in the market based measures?



Currency Movers Charts

Hawkish sentiment from the Fed officials was seen to move USD higher and EUR down after EURUSD turned lower from the level we identified in Friday’s report. This has brought the EUR pairs near support levels today. EURUSD is trading at a pivotal support while EURJPY has declined to daily Bollinger Bands near levels that attracted buyers on September 4th. EURAUD moved at first closer to a support at 1.5566 (also at Bollinger Bands) but rallied and created a 4h pin bar. EURGBP looks weaker as it is trading below resistance levels but has no clear support before 0.7170.

Safe haven currency JPY has gathered momentum today as global stock markets are down together with commodities such as Copper and Crude Oil. AUDJPY is falling after violating support at 85.82 and forming a shooting star candle three days ago.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• Australian House Price Index: The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 4.7% in the June quarter 2015. The index rose 9.8% through the year to the June quarter 2015.

• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing: UK government borrowing surpasses expectations in August data, rising to GBP 12.1 bln in the non-financial figure. The consensus forecast had been for GBP 9.2 bln, while borrowing was up by GBP 1.4 bln on August 2014. The picture looks better in the financial year to date (from April), with borrowing down GBP 4.4 bln over this period. While the deficit has halved under the government’s austerity program, net government debt still remains over 80% of GDP.

• US Housing Price Index: markets expect the Housing Price Index number to come in at 0.4%. Home price index rose 0.2% in June from May’s 0.5%. On an annual basis, prices are up 5.6% y/y.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.
Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 18th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 18th September 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

In yesterday’s report I drew attention to EURUSD creating a pin bar and a higher low. This indicated further bullishness for euro but the upside was capped by the 1.1328 – 1.1378 resistance area. As expected, the pair didn’t move beyond the resistance before the Fed announcement yesterday. The decision to hold the rates at zero propelled EURUSD to the session high of 1.1441. Today, Stochastics are in the overbought region while the price is approaching the upper daily Bollinger Bands. In the weekly picture, price is inside the upper Bollinger Bands and right below the 50 week SMA. This is a reason for some caution for the euro bulls. The price is approaching the 1.1463 – 1.1520 resistance area after we’ve seen some follow through for yesterday’s upward momentum. The nearest support levels are 1.1374 and 1.1388.

FOMC left rates unchanged, citing concerns over global weakness. The key sentence in the statement was: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.” The Fed again noted weakness in net exports, and the fact that market based inflation measures had moved lower. It’s also “monitoring developments abroad,” while it sees balanced risks on the economy and labor market. The FOMC again indicated it will be appropriate to raise rates when it sees further improvement in the labor market and is “reasonably confident” that inflation will move back to the 2% target over the medium term. Lacker dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. The Fed did reiterate that the economy is expanding at a moderate rate, housing has improved further, and the underutilization of labor resources has diminished.

Yellen said U.S. monetary policy is directed toward achieving the dual mandates set out by Congress. Of course policy changes have many cross currents, and capital flow implications. The exchange rate is one of a number of channels through which policy works. There are effects on the exchange rate, and yes the Fed needs to take those into account. The risk of a government shutdown played NO role in the Fed’s decision not to hike rates. Yellen said there is rationale for a rate hike now, but noted that financial conditions have tightened to some extent, and the situation abroad has become “more uncertain of late.” She added though, that the she doesn’t want to overplay the impact of overseas developments. She also reiterated that the path of policy is more important than the timing of the first move, and that most members still see a hike this year. The decision won’t depend on any particular data. In answering the first question, she said we can’t expect uncertainty to be fully resolved, but the Fed wanted to take a little more time to assess conditions. She has no recipe for what the FOMC wants to see before tightening. On the possibility for October, all meetings are “live.” So October remains a possibility, and the Fed would call a press conference if needed.

Fed funds futures are on the move higher after the FOMC remained on hold. Though prices in the futures market are still gyrating, the market is currently pricing in a 25 bp hike for December with a little better than 50-50 probability. We suspect improved market stability and less angst over global developments will open the door for an October hike, though soft inflation should make December a better bet.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

As the Fed decided not to raise rates the dollar weakness drove other currencies higher. This was especially the case with the commodity price sensitive AUD. Commodities are priced in USD and therefore a lower yielding dollar makes some commodities like Gold more attractive and in general cheaper to buy. This has supported the AUD today.

AUDUSD is trading at a resistance created by 50 day SMA, the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and a historical resistance area between 0.7216 and 0.7276. The pair formed a daily shooting star candle yesterday and is at the time of the writing challenging the high of the candle. GBPAUD is back to the pin bar it created day before yesterday. This is a level where a historical support coincide with 50 day SMA and the lower Bollinger Bands.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• Canadian CPI: We expect CPI to expand at a 1.0% y/y pace in August, a slowdown from the 1.3% y/y clip in July. CPI is seen falling 0.2% on a month comparable basis in August after the 0.1% gain in July. Gas prices fell 3.5% in August compared to July, which is expected to drive the decline in month comparable CPI. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen rising 0.2% in August, similar to the action seen in past months of August. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.0% y/y rate in August following the 2.4% clip in July. The expected core CPI figure would, of course, leave the measure at the BoC’s 2.0% midpoint. However, Governor Poloz has maintained that run-up is transitory and not reflective of a tightening in supply conditions.

• The US CB Leading Indicator: The August index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to grow 0.2%. We expect yields to help support the headline. The six-month annual gain hit 8.8% in July last year, the highest reading since 10.7% seen in April of 2010. The Conference Board’s preferred recession threshold for the LEI is a six-month annualized reading below -3.5% and a six-month diffusion average below 50%. We wouldn’t read much into this index, as the historical swings “line up” with back data due to repeated “best fit” revisions of the index figures rather than a real-time correlation. The Conference Board revises the index in January, given the massive divergence since 2009 between index levels and reported GDP growth.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 17th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 17th September 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

After moving lower EURUSD as expected but then rallied quite strongly and turned a down day into a close above the opening price for the day. The rally started after the pair reversed below my 1.1230 support at 1.1214 and was intensified by the US CPI figures. The headline CPI came in at disappointing -0.1% while the core CPI remained unchanged at 0.1%. A negative print on August CPI gave the Fed a last minute reminder that it continues to be well shy of its inflation mandate. This gave the markets a reason to sell the USD almost across the board. Only USDJPY bucked the trend yesterday. EURUSD then ran into a resistance slightly above my 1.1305 resistance and is trading sideways underneath it at the time of writing. This created a pin bar and a higher low in the daily chart. A pin bar that creates a higher low is a positive indication in this context and this has encouraged traders to push the price higher today. There however is a pivotal resistance ahead (1.1328 – 1.1373) while support levels are at 1.1230 and 1.1196. This being the Fed day I don’t expect the markets to push through the resistance before the rates announcement.

EURCHF is fractionally lower following the SNB announcement of unchanged policy and renewed pledge to intervene in the currency market if needed to counter franc appreciation. The central bank continues to class the franc as being “significantly overvalued.” EUR-CHF dipped to the 1.0950 from pre-announcement levels around 1.0975, which is little more than a 0.2% decline, and the cross remains well within the range it posted yesterday. Swiss policymakers have had success in undermining the franc’s status as a safe haven, with deeply negative deposit rates having caused a steady drip feed of yield-searching Swiss fund outflows. The franc is trading nearly 6.5 % lower than levels seen a couple of months ago, and the cross last week traded above 1.1000 for the first time since the SNB abandoned its former cap on the franc in January.

ECB and SNB – Waiting for the Fed: ECB council members continued to sound dovish as the focus shifts to tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. If the Fed delays the start of the tightening cycle it will make additional easing moves by the ECB more likely and that in turn would likely see the SNB follow suit with additional steps. Officials may be eager to stress that China’s exchange rate adjustment was not the start of a global currency war, but at least in Europe, it would well start to look like one.

FOMC Forecast revisions to be released at Thursday’s FOMC meeting should reveal sharp reversals of the June FOMC revisions for GDP and the jobless rate, as growth prospects should be boosted despite global market volatility. We expect all the 2015 GDP forecasts to be raised by 0.4%-0.6% after June’s downward bumps of 0.4%-0.8%, while all but the lowest jobless rate estimates are lowered 0.1% across the 2015-2017 period after 0.1%-0.2% June boosts in the lower end estimates. We believe policymakers low-balled their estimates in June to facilitate upward revisions at this month’s meeting that would help to justify rate lift-off. The 2015-16 PCE chain price estimates were also low-balled in June, though we do expect 0.2%-0.3% downward bumps for 2015. The core PCE chain price figures have tracked official projections, though forecast ranges may be narrowed. We expect big downward bumps in the high-end Fed funds estimates, as officials “tap down” rate expectations in keeping with a “one and done” 2015 rate strategy.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

New Zealand’s Q2 GDP grew at a 0.4% pace (q/q) following the 0.2% clip in Q1. The increase in Q1 undershot projections and leaves another quarter of disappointing growth for New Zealand’s economy. On an annual basis, GDP slowed to a 2.4% y/y pace from the revised 2.7% y/y clip in Q1 (was +2.6%). Growth has slowed considerably this year from the 3.5% y/y rate seen in Q4 of 2014. The slowing in annual growth is supportive of further rate cuts from the RBNZ.

The result has been that money has flowed away from the NZD benefitting especially USD, EUR and GBP. NZDUSD is down slightly at the levels it opened yesterday morning while EURNZD is trying to move up after forming a doji candle yesterday. GBPNZD is trading near a pivot high candle after yesterday’s rally and the advance today in the Asian session. All in all price action seems to be muted as markets wait for the Fed.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• The SNB Interest Rate Decision.: The Swiss central bank did the expected and maintained the central Libor target and the deposit rate at -0.75%. The SNB sees growth picking up ****ually in the second half and headline inflation in positive territory at the beginning of 2017. The statement highlighted that the CHF remains overvalued and confirmed the central bank’s commitment to intervene in forex markets if necessary. The statement highlighted growing uncertainty about developments in China and risks to the world growth outlook. The SNB will be watching Fed and ECB decisions carefully in coming months and if the ECB widens its QE program, the SNB could well react or pre-empt a move by cutting the deposit rate again even before the next policy review in December.

• US Housing Starts: August housing starts are out today and we expect the headline to decline 3.0% to a 1,170k (median 1,160k) pace from 1,206k in July. The July headline marked a high back to October of ’07. Also in the report is the latest data on permits, which we exepct to climb to 1,135k from 1,130k in July and completions, which are seen at 1,010k from 987k. Early data on housing for August remained firm with the NAHB at 61.

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of September 12th are published today and should reveal a 282k (median 275k) headline from 275k last week. Claims are continuing to strike a firm path and we expect the September average to be 275k which would be steady from August, though above the 272k July average. This continued strength supports our September forecast for a 205k non-farm payrolls.

• The Fed Interest Rate Decision.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.