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Thread: Trading based on Support and Resistance.

  1. #1241
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    The U.S. central bank also said it would start to reduce its $4.2 trillion worth of bond holdings that ballooned through three rounds of quantitative easing.

    "Yes, the Fed has just told us they are going to continue tightening policy, but the likes of the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and even the Bank of England now have also told us that they are going to start normalizing policy," said Nelson.

    "It's clearly a contrast to where we were a year or two ago when the Fed was the only game in town.

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    Investing.com – The dollar remained roughly unchanged against a basket of major currencies on Friday amid an uptick in safe-haven demand as U.S.-North Korea tensions resurfaced but sterling weakness curbed downside momentum in the greenback.

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    KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian ringgit is still widely accepted by moneychangers in overseas markets contrary to social media rumours saying otherwise.

    In neighbouring Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia, moneychangers reported brisk transactions in the local currency, with some even reporting a lack of supply of the ringgit due to heavy demand.


    Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/news/natio...hoTomEvHTMT.99

    ---------- Post added at 03:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:59 PM ----------

    Early this morning, Tabung Haji denied social media reports that the ringgit was not being accepted in Mecca and Medina.

    Checks by the pilgrimage fund board’s office in Jeddah showed that the ringgit was accepted by most moneychangers.


    Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/news/natio...hoTomEvHTMT.99

    ---------- Post added at 03:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:01 PM ----------

    In the forex market today, the ringgit was at RM4.43 to the US dollar as of 4pm compared with RM4.417 at yesterday’s closing.

    In Singapore, moneychangers dismissed speculation that they had run out of supply of the ringgit, saying there was adequate supply.


    Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/news/natio...hoTomEvHTMT.99

    ---------- Post added at 03:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:05 PM ----------

    In Thailand, the ringgit was still widely accepted by the country's moneychangers.

    Several moneychangers in Bang*kok said there was no problem exchanging the ringgit with other currencies.


    Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/news/natio...hoTomEvHTMT.99

    ---------- Post added at 04:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:11 PM ----------

    The dollar remained lower against other major currencies on Friday, as concerns over fresh tensions between the U.S. and North Korea continued to weigh on market sentiment.
    The dollar had strengthened broadly after the Fed on Wednesday indicated that one more interest rate hike is likely this year and said it will begin to unwind its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October.

    ---------- Post added at 04:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:24 PM ----------

    But market sentiment was hit after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said on Friday that Pyongyang will consider the "highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history" against the U.S. in response to President Donald Trump's threat to destroy the country.
    Shortly after, North Korea's Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho said his country could conduct a hydrogen bomb test in the Pacific Ocean of an unprecedented scale.

  5. #1244
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    to determine areas of support and resistnace properly requires a long training, so if you have advanced, we can use a small Sl and can maximize profit.

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    In his first speech before the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, Trump said "the United States has great strength and patience, but if it is forced to defend itself and its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea."
    The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc were higher, with USD/JPY sliding 0.41% to 112.01, just off the previous session's two-month peak of 112.72, while USD/CHF fell 0.21% to trade at 0.9687.

    ---------- Post added at 04:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:47 PM ----------

    Elsewhere, EUR/USD gained 0.20% to trade at 1.1965, while GBP/USD edged down 0.10% to 1.3569, off Monday's 15-month highs of 1.3620.
    The euro was boosted by data released earlier Friday by research group Markit showing that manufacturing and service sector activity in the euro zone expanded more than expected this month.

    ---------- Post added at 04:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:50 PM ----------

    Market participants were looking ahead to a speech by UK Prime Minister Theresa May, scheduled later in the day.
    Reports earlier in the week suggested that the UK would be ready to pay €20 billion for a two-year transition period after Brexit.

    ---------- Post added at 04:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:53 PM ----------

    The Australian and New Zealand dollars were stronger, with AUD/USD up 0.47% at 0.7968 and with NZD/USD adding 0.22% to 0.7323.
    Meanwhile, USD/CAD declined 0.44% to 1.2273.
    The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.22% at 91.77 by 08:10 a.m. ET (12:10 GMT), off Thursday's one-week highs of 92.42.

    ---------- Post added at 05:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:58 PM ----------

    The AUDUSD is another currency pair with the ups and downs.


    Yesterday, it tumbled lower. A downside catalyst was the move below the 200 hour MA, 100 hour and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart.

    Today, the price has trended back higher and just reached the lowest of those same MAs. Today it starts with the 100 hour MA at 0.79838. Above that is the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 200 hour MA at 0.7993 and 0.79953 respectively.

    ---------- Post added at 05:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:05 PM ----------

    The pair has a range of 78 pips. The 22 day average is 72 pips. The market is stalling and running out of steam near what is the average range. The markets internal clock told it to take profit/sell against the level. Is that it for the rally?

    Looking at the 5 minute chart below, keep an eye on the 100 bar MA (blue line). It lines up with an intraday trend line. Find support against the level and there is a shot for an extension to test the other MA targets on the hourly chart.

    ---------- Post added at 05:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:12 PM ----------

    The dollar buckled against the yen on Friday as tensions simmered on the Korean peninsula, though the sharp divergence between U.S. and Japanese monetary policy kept the greenback on track for a winning week against the yen.

    ---------- Post added at 05:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:18 PM ----------

    North Korea said on Friday it might test a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to destroy the reclusive country, with leader Kim Jong Un promising to make a “mentally deranged” Trump pay dearly for his comments.

    ---------- Post added at 05:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:23 PM ----------

    The dollar dropped as much as 0.8 percent to 111.65 yen in Asian trade, before recovering to trade down around 0.4 percent at 112 yen as traders arrived at their desks in New York.

    The yen tends to benefit during times of crisis due to Japan’s net creditor nation status, and the expectation that Japanese investors would repatriate assets.

    ---------- Post added at 05:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:30 PM ----------

    For the week, the dollar was still up more than 1 percent against the yen, having scaled a two-month peak of 112.725 after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled that it was still on track to raise interest rates by the end of the year, and after the Bank of Japan maintained its bond-buying pledge.

    ---------- Post added at 05:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:32 PM ----------

    “Threats of an H-bomb test in the Pacific Ocean from North Korea brought an usual knee-jerk reaction across markets overnight,” said Saxo Bank’s head of currency strategy, John Hardy, in London.

    ---------- Post added at 05:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:39 PM ----------

    “The U.S. dollar rally on the back of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting entirely failed to follow through, and euro/dollar and sterling/dollar have erased most of the downside, keeping patient dollar bears in business,” he added.

    ---------- Post added at 05:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:48 PM ----------

    The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against a basket of six major rivals, fell 0.3 percent to 92.024, but it was still slightly higher on the week and was well above its more than 2-1/2 year trough of 91.011 marked on Sept. 8.

    It surged to its strongest in 15 days on Wednesday, but has since slipped around 1 percent.

    ---------- Post added at 06:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:52 PM ----------

    “Even if the Federal Reserve were able to deliver on a December rate rise, there is so much uncertainty about what the FOMC will look like in six months’ time... that any projections for three further rate rises in 2018 have to be treated with a huge amount of caution,” said CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson.

    ---------- Post added at 06:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:03 PM ----------

    The euro inched up 0.2 percent to $1.1962, with traders not seeing Sunday’s German elections as a risk. Chancellor Angela Merkel is widely expected to win a fourth term in power.

    Sterling was treading water against the dollar, with a key speech on Brexit by Prime Minister Theresa May later in the day in focus for traders. (Reporting by Jemima Kelly; Additional reporting by Lisa Twaronite; editing by Gareth Jones)

    ---------- Post added at 06:10 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:06 PM ----------

    The dollar weakened against the yen on Friday, with tensions simmering on the Korean peninsula and as the boost from heightened expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike in December faded.

    The dollar was down 0.42 percent at 111.99 yen, on pace to snap a five-day winning streak against the Japanese currency.

    ---------- Post added at 06:15 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:10 PM ----------

    North Korea said on Friday it might test a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to destroy the reclusive country, with leader Kim Jong Un promising to make a "mentally deranged" Trump pay dearly for his comments. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nS6N1IG017

    ---------- Post added at 06:17 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:15 PM ----------

    "The dollar is coming under a little bit of pressure into the end of the week here. The post FOMC rally in the dollar certainly appears to be losing some steam," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.

    "Increasing tensions with North Korea is putting a little bit of selling pressure on the dollar, especially against the Japanese yen."

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  9. #1247
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    The yen tends to benefit during times of crisis due to Japan's net creditor nation status, and the expectation that Japanese investors would repatriate assets.

    "Keep in mind the yen is bouncing off of about a two-month low," Esiner said.

    ---------- Post added at 06:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:20 PM ----------

    The dollar scaled a two-month peak of 112.71 yen on Thursday after the Bank of Japan maintained its bond-buying pledge. The move also was spurred by the Federal Reserve's policy statement on Wednesday in which it signalled it still intended to raise rates in December. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nTLAKKEDBK

    The dollar index .DXY , which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.13 percent to 92.136.

    ---------- Post added at 06:28 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:24 PM ----------

    Meanwhile, sterling skidded against the dollar and the euro after British Prime Minister Theresa May failed to give any concrete details for how Britain might retain preferential access to Europe's single market. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1M344H

    ---------- Post added at 06:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:28 PM ----------

    In a closely watched speech in Italy, May said Britain should stay in the trade bloc during a roughly two-year transition out of the European Union, and offered concessions on a divorce deal as she appealed for a revival of Brexit negotiations. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1M30JB

    Sterling was down 0.32 percent against the greenback at $1.3534, after falling as low as 1.349.

    ---------- Post added at 06:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:31 PM ----------

    "Theresa May's speech was, as expected, a bit opaque, thin of detail and offered no new fundamental direction," Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital in London, wrote in a note

    The euro inched up 0.07 percent to $1.1947EUR= , with traders not seeing Sunday's German elections as a source of risk. Chancellor Angela Merkel is widely expected to win a fourth term in power. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1M22BP

    ---------- Post added at 06:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:34 PM ----------

    The USDJPY moved lower in trading today. N. Korea comments pushed the pair lower (the old buy the JPY trade which is confusing since N. Korea has said they would sink Japan).

    Technically, the fall took the price back below its 200 day MA at 112.20 today. The hourly price bars in the chart below have all closed below that MA line with a couple small looks above the MA line over the last 14 or so hours. Each of those looks were for a short period of time and did not attract any momentum buying.

    ---------- Post added at 06:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:38 PM ----------

    On the downside techncally, the 100 hour MA (blue in in the chart above) at 111.843 currently is providing support. There was a close earlier in the day below that MA line, but sellers could not keep the momentum going and buyers took the price back up toward the 100 day MA resistance level. The last two hourly bars have stalled at the MA line.

    ---------- Post added at 06:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:42 PM ----------

    The market is coiling like a spring between support at the rising 100 hour MA (at 111.843) and resistance at the set for the day 200 day MA (at 112.12). Traders are playing the range so far, but at some point there will be a break and run.

    Keep an eye on the interest rates. They are lower on a flight into the safety of the JPY. The 10 year yield is down -2.8 bps at 2.2481%.

    ---------- Post added at 06:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:46 PM ----------

    As the market await UK PM May's speech in Florence, the pair is trading nearer highs for the day.


    The high for the day today has extended to 1.3595. The NY session high reached 1.3586 so far. The low for the day stalled at 1.35366 in the London morning session. The 59 pip range is well below the 22 day average of 112 pips. The market is waiting.

    ---------- Post added at 06:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:49 PM ----------

    Technically, looking at the daily chart, the post Brexit highs came in at 1.3443 to 1.3532. The holding of support against the highest post-Brexit corrective high at 1.3532 is a bit more bullish for the pair (the low stalled 4 pips from the level). Should the price dip below that level through May's speech, it weakens the bulls case a bit. The 1.3479 was a swing high in July and the September 2016 low was 1.34439. The low for this weeks trading stalled just ahead of that level at 1.3451. Breaks of those levels weaken the technicals for the pound.

    ---------- Post added at 06:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:53 PM ----------

    On the topside, the highs from last Friday and Monday stalled at 1.3616 and 1.3618 respectively. The price on the FOMC spiked above those levels to a high of 1.35547 but quickly retreated on what was thought to be more hawkish comments and projections from the Fed. A move above those levels are the next upside targets.

    ---------- Post added at 07:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:56 PM ----------

    The EURUSD is now higher on the day (closed at 1.1890) but below the 38.2% retracement of the move down from yesterday's high (at 1.1926). ECB Dragh is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt at the bottom of the hour. His comments may impact the pair.


    On the topside, in addition to the 38.2% retracement resistance at 1.1926 are a bunch of MAs at 1.1939-555 area. The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour comes in at 1.1939. The 200 hour MA comes in at 1.19468. The 100 hour MA comes in at 1.1955. A move above those lines will dampen the bearish impact from the FOMC.

    ---------- Post added at 07:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:01 PM ----------

    ON the downside, the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.18687 will be eyed. Yesterday and today, the pair stalled the fall near that MA line. Also watch the 1.1876 level. That was the low from 2010. Moves below those levels should shift more of the trading bias to the downside.

    ---------- Post added at 07:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:02 PM ----------

    The dollar moved lower against other major currencies on Friday, despite recent upbeat U.S. data and the possibility of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, as tensions between the U.S. and North Korea re-emerged.

    The dollar strengthened broadly after that one more interest rate hike is likely this year and said it will begin to unwind its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October.

    ---------- Post added at 07:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:05 PM ----------

    The greenback was also supported by a string of upbeat reports U.S. jobless claims manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area released on Thursday.

    But market sentiment weakened after that Pyongyang will consider the “highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history” against the U.S. in response to President Donald Trump’s threat to destroy the country.

    ---------- Post added at 07:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:09 PM ----------

    Shortly after, North Korea’s Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho said his country could conduct a hydrogen bomb test in the Pacific Ocean of an unprecedented scale.

    In his first speech before the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, Trump said “the United States has great strength and patience, but if it is forced to defend itself and its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.”

    ---------- Post added at 07:13 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:11 PM ----------

    The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc were higher, with sliding 0.37% to 112.03, off the previous session’s two-month peak of 112.72, while fell 0.20% to trade at 0.9688.

    Elsewhere, rose 0.23% to 1.1969, while held steady at 1.3591, not far from Monday’s 15-month highs of 1.3620.

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    Market participants were looking ahead to a string of data on manufacturing and service sector activity data from the euro zone, due later Friday.

    Investors were also eyeing two separate speeches by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and UK Prime Minister Theresa May, scheduled later in the day.

    ---------- Post added at 07:17 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:16 PM ----------

    The , which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, wasdown 0.21% at 91.78 by 02:15 a.m. ET (06:15 GMT),off Thursday’s one-week highs of 92.42.

    Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate.

    ---------- Post added at 07:19 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:17 PM ----------

    All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

    ---------- Post added at 07:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:19 PM ----------

    Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

    ---------- Post added at 07:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:23 PM ----------

    The dollar weakened against the yen on Friday, with tensions simmering on the Korean peninsula and as the boost from heightened expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike in December faded.

    The dollar was down 0.42 percent at 111.99 yen, on pace to snap a five-day winning streak against the Japanese currency.

    ---------- Post added at 07:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:29 PM ----------

    North Korea said on Friday it might test a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to destroy the reclusive country, with leader Kim Jong Un promising to make a “mentally deranged” Trump pay dearly for his comments.

    ---------- Post added at 07:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:33 PM ----------

    North Korea said on Friday it might test a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to destroy the reclusive country, with leader Kim Jong Un promising to make a “mentally deranged” Trump pay dearly for his comments.

    ---------- Post added at 07:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:44 PM ----------

    “The dollar is coming under a little bit of pressure into the end of the week here. The post FOMC rally in the dollar certainly appears to be losing some steam,” said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.“Increasing tensions with North Korea is putting a little bit of selling pressure on the dollar, especially against the Japanese yen.”

    ---------- Post added at 07:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:46 PM ----------

    The yen tends to benefit during times of crisis due to Japan’s net creditor nation status, and the expectation that Japanese investors would repatriate assets.

    “Keep in mind the yen is bouncing off of about a two-month low,” Esiner said.

    ---------- Post added at 07:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:48 PM ----------

    The dollar scaled a two-month peak of 112.71 yen on Thursday after the Bank of Japan maintained its bond-buying pledge. The move also was spurred by the Federal Reserve’s policy statement on Wednesday in which it signalled it still intended to raise rates in December.

    ---------- Post added at 07:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:50 PM ----------

    The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.13 percent to 92.136.

    Meanwhile, sterling skidded against the dollar and the euro after British Prime Minister Theresa May failed to give any concrete details for how Britain might retain preferential access to Europe’s single market.

    ---------- Post added at 07:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:52 PM ----------

    In a closely watched speech in Italy, May said Britain should stay in the trade bloc during a roughly two-year transition out of the European Union, and offered concessions on a divorce deal as she appealed for a revival of Brexit negotiations.

    ---------- Post added at 07:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:56 PM ----------

    Sterling was down 0.32 percent against the greenback at $1.3534, after falling as low as 1.349.

    “Theresa May’s speech was, as expected, a bit opaque, thin of detail and offered no new fundamental direction,” Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital in London, wrote in a note

    ---------- Post added at 08:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:58 PM ----------

    The euro inched up 0.07 percent to $1.1947, with traders not seeing Sunday’s German elections as a source of risk. Chancellor Angela Merkel is widely expected to win a fourth term in power.

    ---------- Post added at 08:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:00 PM ----------

    the Federal Reserve breathed new life into the U.S. dollar this past week by confirming that they see one more rate hike year. The announcement, which was accompanied by plans to reduce the balance sheet caught investors by surprise sending the dollar sharply higher. However since Wednesday's

    ---------- Post added at 08:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:05 PM ----------

    announcement, the greenback has been unable to extend its gains and instead ended the week slightly higher against the Japanese Yen, British pound, Canadian and Australian dollars, flat versus the euro and lower against the New Zealand dollar. In the week ahead, the main driver of currency flows should be politics. General elections will be held this weekend in Germany and New Zealand and sometime in the coming week, more details on U.S. tax reform is expected.

    ---------- Post added at 08:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:12 PM ----------

    In addition investors should be watching U.S. - North Korea tensions as the recent name calling could spiral into something worse that could rattle the FX market.

    The most important takeaway from the news flow this past week is the Federal Reserve's hawkishness. Although U.S. data has been mixed, Federal Reserve officials looked beyond the strain caused by the hurricanes and the unevenness of U.S. data to call for another rate hike this year along with 75bp of tightening in 2018. This hawkishness caught the market by surprise because most people just expected the Fed to announce plans to shrink their balance sheet (which they did) and provide little in the way of guidance. However with stocks hitting record highs on a daily basis,

    ---------- Post added at 08:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:21 PM ----------

    Federal Reserve officials saw no reason to back away from their plans to tighten as they see spending expanding at a moderate rate, investment activity increasing and labor activity strengthening. The Federal Reserve believed that the hurricanes would not alter the economy's general course because according to Janet Yellen, the recovery is on a strong track. This unambiguously positive monetary policy outlook and the prospect of tax reform should limit the slide in the dollar barring any geopolitical risks. On Friday,

    ---------- Post added at 08:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:25 PM ----------

    Yellen's hawkishness was reinforced by hawkish comments from Fed Presidents Kaplan, George and Williams. Next week we'll hear from Dudley, Evans, Kashkari, Mester, Bullard, Rosengren, Fischer, Harker and Yellen again. If most of these policymakers confirm that they see another rate hike before the year is out, we could see renewed gains in the greenback. Fed speak should overshadow the new home sales, consumer confidence, GDP revision, personal income and personal spending reports.

    ---------- Post added at 08:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:31 PM ----------

    She is running for her fourth term (12+ years) and her position is so secure that many have looked beyond the election to her next government. Germany won't be hit by populism as the latest polls show her party, the Christian Democratic Union and its sister party the Christian Social Union have 36-37% support with many exit polls showing last minute voters favoring the incumbent

    ---------- Post added at 08:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:35 PM ----------

    A victory for Merkel will mean a victory for the euro. Although EUR/USD backed off 1.20 on Friday, investors are anticipating a win. In the very unlikely scenario that she loses, EUR/USD will crash quickly and aggressively and could fall below 1.18. If she wins, it will be under the backdrop of a improving Eurozone economy and a hawkish central bank. Manufacturing and service sector activity accelerated in the month of September according to the PMIs.

    ---------- Post added at 08:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:42 PM ----------

    This has and should continue to limit the slide in EUR/USD and could extend the gains for EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF. Next week's Eurozone economic reports should continue to support the euro as we are look for improvements in the German IFO, unemployment and inflation reports.


    Once again, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May disappointed the market. In her widely publicized Brexit speech on Friday she provided nothing of substance and made no mention of the terms of exit

    ---------- Post added at 08:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:46 PM ----------

    including the divorce payment they expect to make to the European Union. While this could be interpreted to mean that she is open to discussion it could also be viewed as lack of progress. Either way investors sold sterling after her speech, leaving GBP/USD vulnerable to further losses. Like the euro sterling's slide will be limited by the Bank of England's

    ---------- Post added at 09:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:49 PM ----------

    hawkishness. U.K. retail sales rose significantly more than anticipated in the month of August, hardening the case for a rate hike. There are a handful of second tier UK economic reports scheduled for release in the new week. They are not expected to have a significant impact on sterling. Instead investors will be watching Bank of England Governor Carney's speech on Thursday and BoE member Broadbent's speech on Friday.

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    Based on the end of week rally in NZD, the incumbent Bill English is expected to win. However the race has been close and we do not rule out an unexpected victory by Jacinda Ardern. If Arden wins, NZD is likely to sell off and if English secures a victory we could see a slight bounce in the currency. As for the RBNZ, the last we heard from the central bank they expressed concerns about the strong currency and said they were very much neutral on rates. Since the last monetary policy meeting in August, we've seen

    ---------- Post added at 10:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:03 PM ----------

    improvements and deterioration in the economy. Inflation and housing activity seems to have ticked up slightly but credit card spending and service sector activity slowed. The currency is trading marginally weaker. The bottom line is there hasn't been enough improvement or deterioration for the RBNZ to change their guidance and if they maintain a cautious outlook, NZD will end up selling off against currencies where rate hikes are anticipated.

    ---------- Post added at 10:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:12 PM ----------

    Consumer prices rose 0.1% in the month of August which was slightly less than anticipated. Retail sales beat expectations rising by 0.4% but excluding auto, the increase was far more modest and less than anticipated. It is difficult to say if these reports eliminate the chance of another rate hike from the Bank of Canada because inflation and spending still increased from the previous month but the mere fact that they cast doubt on additional tightening could be enough of an excuse for more profit taking on short USD/CAD positions. Canadian GDP is due for release at the end of next week but the main focus for CAD will be Governor Poloz's speech on Wednesday.

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    Unlike the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, the RBA is in no rush to raise interest rates. According to Governor Lowe who spoke on Thursday the Australian economy looks to be improving and is on course for further progress in jobs and inflation but global rate rises have no automatic implications for Australia as the flexible A$ allows independence on timing of rate rises

    ---------- Post added at 10:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:22 PM ----------

    While he admits that rates are more likely to go up than down therefore investors should be prepared for higher rates, the market clearly interpreted Lowe's comments to mean that the RBA will lag behind the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoC. There are no major Australian economic report scheduled for release in the week ahead so the main driver for AUD should be the market's appetite for U.S. dollars and speeches delivered by RBA Debelle and Bullock.

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    TORONTO - U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's stay-the-course strategy continues rippling through the currency market.
    The Canadian dollar weakened on Thursday against its U.S. counterpart as oil prices fell, but pared some losses after domestic data showed much stronger-than-expected growth in wholesale trade. The loonie was trading at 81.05 U.S. cents as of the market close on Thursday, a decline of 0.07 from 24 hours earlier.

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    On Wednesday, the loonie hit a 2-week low after the Federal Reserve signaled that it expected to raise interest rates once more by year-end. The dollar was trading at 81.12 U.S. cents as of Wednesday's market close.

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    The 1.5 per cent increase in July wholesale trade exceeded economists' forecasts for a decline of 0.9 per cent and was the biggest increase since January, data from Statistics Canada showed. Stripping out the effects of price changes, volumes were even stronger, up 2.1 per cent.

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    The strength of the data has boosted the outlook for growth in the economy for the month, offsetting soft manufacturing data, Nick Exarhos, an economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a research note.
    Economists will turn to Canada's retail sales report, due on Friday, for further clues on prospects for July gross domestic product. The country's August inflation report is also due on Friday.

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    Prices of oil were largely flat on Thursday. U.S. crude futures dipped 14 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to settle at US$50.55 a barrel. Brent crude futures rose 14 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to end at US$56.43 a barrel.
    Mexico and Canada will survive current talks with the United States on trade relatively unscathed, according to a Reuters poll of economists, suggesting U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist threats still have more bark than bite. However, Trump ratcheted up his offensive on North Korea on Thursday by promising new economic sanctions.

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    Gold prices dropped on Thursday, settling below $1,300 for the first time in September after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted that interest rates will go up in December.

    Gold for December delivery GCZ7, +0.44% slid $21.60, or 1.6%, to settle at $1,294.80 an ounce—its lowest settlement since Aug. 24, according to FactSet data. The percentage decline was also the biggest for a single session since early July. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF GLD, +0.46% shed 0.7%.

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    “The size of gold’s drop shows that North Korea had little to do with gold’s late-summer surge,” Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, told MarketWatch. Gold is often sought for its haven status amid geopolitical rumblings.

    “The hot money was betting on lower for longer from the Fed,” he said. “Now it’s shocked that [Fed Chairwoman] Janet Yellen’s team have repeated what they announced back in June about letting [quantitative easing] ease back from next month.”

    ---------- Post added at 11:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:05 PM ----------

    The size of gold’s drop shows that North Korea had little to do with gold’s late-summer surge,” Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, told MarketWatch. Gold is often sought for its haven status amid geopolitical rumblings.

    “The hot money was betting on lower for longer from the Fed,” he said. “Now it’s shocked that [Fed Chairwoman] Janet Yellen’s team have repeated what they announced back in June about letting [quantitative easing] ease back from next month.”

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