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Thread: Forex Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD by SGT Markets

  1. #1
    Junior Member Lucas SGT Markets is an unknown quantity at this point Lucas SGT Markets's Avatar
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    Forex Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD by SGT Markets

    EUR/USD



    Ahead of important Employment data from U.S. we think that sentiment for the USD will regain momentum as USD is heavily oversold and Nonfarm Payrolls can surprise in better.

    After U.S. Durable Goods Orders only slightly better than expected, Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole offered no hints on monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

    From the U.S., Manufacturing PMI and House Markets were worse than expected. Also, Chicago manufacturing data undershot economists’ forecasts.

    Fitch Ratings said that a failure to raise the federal debt ceiling in a timely manner in September would prompt it to review the United States' sovereign rating "with potentially negative implications."

    German Manufacturing PMI better than expected but German ZEW Economic Sentiment again worse than the expectations (for the 4th time in a row): the ZEW research institute said its monthly survey showed its economic sentiment index fell to 10.0, the weakest reading since October.

    End-of-summer hedging (and in the absence of relevant macro economical or political data) messed up a little bit the whole picture but it is giving a lot of reasons to the next correction wave. Fake breakout of 1.1856 will be re-absorbed soon and we still are overbought: so first we expect the re-test back to 1.1756 and then the continuation of this retracement down to 1.1655 (First important Support, tested first time on the 17th).

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 1.1856 (fake breakout)
    2nd Resistance: 1.1920
    1st Support: 1.1655
    2nd Support: 1.1590


    GBP/USD



    After U.S. Durable Goods Orders only slightly better than expected, Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole offered no hints on monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

    UK GDP (Preliminary release) as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) on the downbeat. On the other hand, last U.S. Manufacturing and House Markets data were worse than expected but ahead of important Employment data from U.S. we think that sentiment for the USD will regain momentum as USD is heavily oversold and Nonfarm Payrolls can surprise in better.

    Uncertainty over the economic agenda of U.S. President Donald Trump and doubts that the Federal Reserve will deliver a third rate hike this year have fed into recent dollar weakness. Furthermore, Federal Reserve policymakers were split on the outlook for future rate hikes, as Fed members struggled to balance concerns about the slowdown in inflation with the growth in the labor market.

    On the other hand, ongoing expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold in the coming months amid concerns over the economic fallout from Brexit. UK Retail Sales better than expected and UK Job Market better than expected too: UK unemployment falls to lowest since 1975.

    As we expected, the break below 1.2978 led GBP/USD straight down to our Support 1.2830. The consolidation around 1.283 is occurring but it has a very limited amount of energy now. So, eyes on the next re-test of 1.28, as we still are bearish until 1.27 area.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

    Weekly Trend: Bearish
    1st Resistance: 1.2978
    2nd Resistance: 1.3099
    1st Support: 1.2830
    2nd Support: 1.2705



    AUD/USD



    After U.S. Durable Goods Orders only slightly better than expected, Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole offered no hints on monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

    Oil prices turned higher after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that domestic crude supplies fell less than expected last week, but that gasoline stocks declined far more than forecast.
    Earlier, Oil prices were pressured and fell on concerns of oversupply as Libyan output recovers
    weighed down by concerns amid ongoing global supply glut concerns.

    Last Australia Employment Change was seen better than Expected but Full Employment Change was negative. The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes painted a possible stronger than expected growth spurt in the coming year in an otherwise light data day with North Korea a bit toned down on firing missiles at or near U.S. territory Guam.

    Turbulence surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration following the backlash over his statements on the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville. Market players see the recent political turmoil as an obstacle to Trump being able to follow through on infrastructure spending and tax reforms.

    As we wrote previously, breakout of 0.7916, important level, led down to 0.783 area, our first target. Now 0.7916 Resistance area should push price down again. We are still bearish until 0.774 area, but first 0.783 has to be successfully violated again (and this is taking a long time due to the end-of-summer hedging, in the absence of relevant macro economical or political data, that messed up a little bit the whole picture).

    Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 0.7916
    2nd Resistance: 0.8034
    1st Support: 0.7828
    2nd Support: 0.7735

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  3. The Following User Says Thank You to Lucas SGT Markets For This Useful Post:

    MuhammadBabar8384 (09-13-2017)

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    The Australian Bureau of Statistics said that retail sales were flat in July, confounding expectations for a 0.3% rise. Retail sales increased by 0.2% in June, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 0.3% gain.

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    A separate report showed that Australia's trade surplus narrowed to A$460,000 in July from a revised A$888.000 in June. Analysts had expected the trade surplus to hit A$875,000 in July.

    ---------- Post added at 07:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:45 PM ----------

    Still, six forecast that rates would rise on Wednesday to 1.0 percent, with several changing their view after the strong second-quarter GDP data.

    ---------- Post added at 07:55 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:50 PM ----------

    Demand for safe havens remained strong, with dollar/yen and dollar/swissie trending near the day’s lows. Dollar/yen was last trading at 109.58 while dollar/swissie was last seen at 0.9552.

    ---------- Post added at 08:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:55 PM ----------

    Furthermore, data out of the UK showed that construction firms experienced the slowest growth in a year in August. This was particularly due to an investment downturn in the commercial sector. The Markit/CIPS construction PMI fell by 0.8 points to 51.1, below the 52.0 forecast.

    ---------- Post added at 08:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:00 PM ----------

    The kiwi, which is positively correlated with the aussie, was in an uptrend during the session, edging up by 0.18% to $0.7172.

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    ji zabrdas ager hum eur usd gbp usd aur aud usd ager iss ko hum per trade krain tu hume iss ko hum acha trade kr sakty hain aur iss ko hume in pairs se trading kr k hum ko achay se trade kr sakty hain so hume krni chahiye aur iss ko hum buhat achay tariqy se trade kr sakty hain

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