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  1. #101
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    GBP/USD: revenue growth lags behind inflation
    17/08/2017
    Current dynamics


    As follows from yesterday's July minutes of the Fed meeting, there is no consensus among US central bank executives about further interest rate hikes. Slowing inflation forced some Fed officials to propose to refrain from further raising rates. "In the current conditions, the Fed can show patience", the protocols say. Earlier, the Fed planned to raise rates three times this year, but the protocols published on Wednesday make it doubtful.
    After the publication of the minutes, the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The index of the US dollar, WSJ, estimating the value of the dollar against 16 other major world currencies, fell by 0.4%, to 86.33.
    Nevertheless, today the dollar is recovering its positions during the European trading session. This applies to the pair GBP / USD, which is declining after the publication of data on retail sales in the UK for July. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS), presented today at the beginning of the European session, retail sales growth in the UK in July was modest (+ 0.3% vs. +0.2 forecast). The estimation of sales growth for June was reduced to 0.3% from 0.6%. In annual terms, growth was also modest (+ 1.3% vs. + 1.4%, according to the forecast).
    The British economy, largely dependent on domestic consumption, grew by just 0.3% in the second quarter (+ 0.2% in the first quarter).
    According to data published earlier this week, real British salaries in June declined for the fourth consecutive month. Because of the sharp increase in inflation against the backdrop of a sharp weakening of the pound after the referendum on Brexit, the real income growth of the British lags behind inflation, which is confirmed by the almost zero increase in personal expenses of the British and the level of retail sales.
    Sales in all categories, except for food and household goods, in comparison with the previous month decreased.
    In July, inflation was 2.6% against a nearly four-year high of 2.9% in May, well above the Bank of England's target of 2%.
    We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is expected to decline to 240,000 versus 244,000 for the previous period, which should positively affect the dollar. If the data is confirmed or better, the dollar will receive additional support.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    Since the beginning of August, the GBP / USD pair is actively declining. On the daily chart, GBP / USD fell back to the key support level of 1.2860 (EMA200). Downward dynamics prevails. Breakdown of this level will strengthen the risk of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastic daily, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.
    An alternative scenario relates to the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the level of 1.2980 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts) and the resumption of growth. The closest target in this case will be the resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next growth target.
    Support levels: 1.2860, 1.2800
    Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

    Trading scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.2850. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2815, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365
    Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2850. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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  3. #102
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    EUR/USD: The ECB is concerned about the strengthening of the euro
    18/08/2017
    Current dynamics

    Despite the decline in the dollar, the pair EUR / USD remains under pressure (so far in the short term). Published on Thursday, the minutes of the July meeting of the ECB pointed out that the central bank is concerned about the strengthening of the single European currency this year.
    "There were fears about the risk of excessive growth of the euro in the future", - so it was said in the minutes.
    The strengthening of the Euro-currency negatively affects the economy of the Eurozone, as it makes European goods less competitive abroad. Weak rates of inflation in the Eurozone also contribute to the ECB's prolonging the stimulus program for the Eurozone economy for at least six months.
    As you know, the program QE in the Eurozone ends in December. Despite the fact that the Eurozone economy shows signs of stable growth, which is also due to the ECB, which pursues an extra soft monetary policy, inflation is still far below the target level of the ECB just below 2.0%.
    At the same time, the dollar also remains under pressure after the minutes published on Wednesday from the July Fed meeting. Investors continue to assess the prospects for an increase in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate in December with a probability of below 40%.
    The leadership of the US central bank still can not unanimously decide to raise rates in conditions of slow inflation. And this is a negative factor for the dollar.
    Thus, the EUR / USD pair is currently in the grip of the need to maintain a low interest rate in the Eurozone and the Fed's hesitancy in the matter of monetary policy, which makes both currencies vulnerable from this point of view.
    The US dollar, meanwhile, declined during the Asian session and at the beginning of the European session.
    If we consider that today is the last trading day of the week, then in the second half of the US session, we should expect some strengthening of the US currency against the background of closing short positions on the dollar and fixing profits.
    The news background is calm today. Volatility may intensify at the beginning of the US trading session, when at 12:30 (GMT) the consumer price index (CPI) in Canada (for July) is published.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    The pair EUR / USD is in a downward correction short-term trend since the beginning of August, when strong data was published from the US labor market.
    Repeated attempts to test the support level 1.1690 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart) have not yet led to its breakdown.
    If the EUR / USD decline continues, the breakdown of the support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on 4-hour and weekly charts) will strengthen the risks of a return to the downtrend.
    However, only in case of breakdown of the support level 1.1150 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will EUR/USD return to a downtrend.
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics do not give a clear signal.
    In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the local resistance level 1.1780 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline from 1.3900), the EUR / USD is likely to strengthen further. The growth targets will be the levels of 1.1835, 1.1890 (the highs of the year), 1.1950, 1.2050, 1.2180 (50% Fibonacci level).
    Support levels: 1.1690, 1.1630
    Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1835, 1.1890, 1.1910, 1.1950, 1.2050, 1.2180

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1785. Take-Profit 1.1690, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1550
    Buy Stop 1.1785. Stop-Loss 1.1710. Take-Profit 1.1835, 1.1890, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2100, 1.2180




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  4. #103
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    DJIA: the decline continues
    21/08/2017
    Current dynamics

    After Thursday, Wal-Mart Stores and Cisco Systems reported on the results, their shares fell significantly, pulling the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which dropped 1.2% (274 points) to 21751 points. This was the most significant decline since May 2017. The shares of all 30 companies, traded in DJIA, and all 11 main sectors in the S & P500 index fell.
    A portion of the disappointing financial statements of companies, which include large retailers and giants of the technology sector, as well as the terrorist attack in Spain, provoked the strongest intraday drop in the major US stock indices, which was the second this month.
    On Monday, there is a continued decline in major US stock indexes, including DJIA. Investors' attention this week will be focused on comments by representatives of world central banks, including Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi.
    In general, the negative mood of investors, the tendency to exit from risky assets and the withdrawal of funds into safe assets prevail. Thus, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose to 2.202% from 2.196%, gold quotes also remain propped up after last Friday the price of gold exceeded the annual maximum and the mark of 1300.00 dollars per ounce for a short time.
    If today the decline in indices continues, it will be the third consecutive week of falling indices. The news background today for the US stock market, in general, is neutral.
    Low trading volumes and investor caution on the eve of the Jackson Hole conference increase the likelihood of a short-term spike in volatility and a return of the price to the current range.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    Having broken through the important short-term support levels 21825.0 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 21755.0 (EMA200), DJIA found today support at the level of 21650.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
    The predominant negative short-term dynamics. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
    Probably the continuation of the correction decrease to the level of support 21500.0 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
    In case of resumption of growth and consolidation above the level of 21825.0 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), the DJIA will move towards the recent absolute maximum near the level of 22177.0.
    If the decline continues, then after the breakdown of the support level of 21500.0, the target may be the support level of 20630.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the level Fibonacci 0% is near the mark of 22000.0). Through the level 20630.0 also passes EMA200 on the daily chart. This level, therefore, is key to the bullish trend of DJIA.
    Support levels: 21710.0, 21650.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20630.0
    Resistance levels: 21770.0, 21840.0, 21950.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22300.0

    Trading Scenarios

    Buy Stop 21785.0. Stop-Loss 21600.0. Take-Profit 21825.0, 21950.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22300.0
    Sell Stop 21600.0. Stop-Loss 21785.0. Take-Profit 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20630.0



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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  6. #104
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    USD/CAD: the US dollar is recovering
    22/08/2017
    Current dynamics

    During today's Asian session and at the beginning of the European session, the US dollar is restoring its positions in the foreign exchange market. In recent days, both domestic political uncertainty in the US, as well as ambiguous US economic indicators, have reduced the hopes of investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar that the Federal Reserve will implement the third rate hike this year. According to interest rate futures, on Monday, market participants assessed the likelihood of further increases in US Fed rates this year at 40% versus 43% last month.
    From 24 to 26 August in Jackson Hole (USA) will host an annual economic conference, organized by the Fed, which will address the heads of the world's largest central banks. In the center of attention – is the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen. She is expected to point out how the management of the central bank assesses the situation in the country's economy, and what are the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. If she makes any hints about the possibility of another interest rate hike by the end of the year, despite the low inflation in the US, the dollar will significantly strengthen in the foreign exchange market.
    Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar on Monday rose slightly against the US dollar, which was down against the major currencies. The strengthening of the Canadian currency was also due to the reduction in the difference in the yields of government bonds of Canada and the United States.
    Today, the US dollar is growing, restoring positions, which is also reflected in the growth of USD / CAD. Today its dynamics can be affected by the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data on retail sales in Canada for June.
    The index is published monthly by Statistics Canada and estimates the total amount of retail sales. This index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term. The growth of the index is usually a positive factor for CAD, the decline in the index will negatively affect CAD.
    A slight, almost zero, growth is expected (+ 0.3% vs. + 0.6% in May). If the data is even weaker, the Canadian dollar will fall in the foreign exchange market, including the USD / CAD pair.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    Late last month, the pair USD / CAD reached its next annual low near support level 1.2420 and returned to the range located between 1.2490 (EMA200) and 1.2740 (EMA144 on the weekly chart, Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global ascending Trend since September 2012 and the level of 0.9700). Near the level of 1.2740 also passes the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart.
    In case of consolidation above the level of 1.2635 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the USD / CAD growth will resume with the target of 1.2740. A more distant goal is the level of 1.3120 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, EMA200 on the daily chart and the December lows).
    The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and weekly charts turned to long positions.
    If the pair continues to decline, the USD / CAD will go to support level 1.2490 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
    The breakdown of support levels 1.2170 (50% Fibonacci level), 1.2030 (EMA200 on the monthly chart) will finally break the long-term bullish trend of the pair USD / CAD, which began in September 2012.
    Support levels: 1.2565, 1.2490, 1.2420, 1.2170, 1.2030
    Resistance levels: 1.2605, 1.2635, 1.2700, 1.2740, 1.2785, 1.2800, 1.2860, 1.2920, 1.3015, 1.3120, 1.3200

    Trading Scenarios

    Buy Stop 1.2610. Stop-Loss 1.2565. Take-Profit 1.2635, 1.2700, 1.2740, 1.2785, 1.2800, 1.2860, 1.2920 Sell Stop 1.2565. Stop-Loss 1.2610. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2400, 1.2170




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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