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Thread: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

  1. #181
    Member TifiaFX is an unknown quantity at this point TifiaFX's Avatar
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    GBP/USD: the range remains relevant
    20/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    Published in the press on the weekend news, that German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to create a ruling coalition, caused a surge in volatility at the opening of trading on Monday.
    Euro, as well as European stock indexes, above all, DAX (the leading German index), fell at the opening of today. The fall of the euro against the pound in the pair EUR / GBP caused, on the contrary, the growth of the pound, including against the dollar. The pound gets support also against the backdrop of the fact that British Prime Minister Theresa May will most likely convince the government to support the increase in the payment to the European Union for Brexit.
    As you know, the financial question is the cornerstone in the Brexit process. In September, British Prime Minister Theresa May promised that Britain would pay its share in the EU budget until 2020. But the EU authorities said that they still do not have a clear understanding of whether the UK will fully fulfill its obligations. The final amount of payments on Brexit may exceed 60 billion euros. It even mentions a figure of 100 billion euros, but representatives of the UK dispute this figure.
    Last week, the representative of the EU in Brexit talks from the EU Michelle Barbier stated that it would be time for Britain to clarify the situation on the issues of "exit" from the bloc.
    The draft budget will be presented on Wednesday. UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond will present his plan for taxes and expenses, which, apparently, will be met with approval. On this positive for the pound background, the GBP / USD pair can update the local highs of the previous month near the 1.3335 mark.
    Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the pound will remain negative until the details of the UK's exit procedure from the EU are finally understood.
    Investors will also be interested in data on public sector borrowing, which will be presented on Tuesday (09:30 GMT), as well as the volume of capital investments of British companies in the third quarter, which will be known on Thursday (09:30 GMT). Also at this time on Thursday will be published the second estimate of GDP growth in the UK in the third quarter. Economists expect that in the third quarter GDP grew by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, which coincides with a preliminary estimate.
    Also volatility in the financial markets may rise on Wednesday, after at 18:00 (GMT) will be published "FOMC minutes". In the published minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, investors will seek signals on the future of US monetary policy. The publication of the protocol is extremely important for determining the course of the current policy of the Fed and the prospects for raising the interest rate in the United States. According to interest rate futures, the probability of a rate hike in December in the US is above 90%.
    Economists expect that the US labor market situation will continue to improve, and inflation will rise to a target level of 2%, which will force the Fed to raise the key interest rate four times next year.
    And this is the strongest factor for the growth of the dollar, including in the pair GBP / USD.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
    Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.3230. Stop-Loss 1.3280. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
    Buy Stop 1.3280. Stop-Loss 1.3230. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3400, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

    ---------- Post added 11-21-2017 at 12:45 PM ---------- Previous post was 11-20-2017 at 02:08 PM ----------

    NZD/USD: pair growth will be limited
    21/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    The large-scale decline in the New Zealand dollar, which began in August, continues. An additional downward impulse to the New Zealand currency was given by the general elections held in late September in New Zealand, as a result of which the ruling conservative party was defeated. The achievements of recent years in the growth of the country's economy belong to the former leadership of the country. First of all, this refers to the improvement of the situation on the labor market of the country. For example, unemployment in the 3rd quarter fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis.
    It is still too early to say what adjustments the new government will make to the earlier forecasts. Nevertheless, a survey of business circles conducted earlier this month in the country showed a sharp drop in confidence, and it turned out to be much lower than its average. The new government of New Zealand intends to reassess the RBNZ policy. Now the decision-making in the central bank will have to be carried out by the vote of the committee, whereas the role of the manager will go to the background. Further changes in the RBNZ policy will be discussed with the involvement of independent experts.
    As a result of the meeting of the RB of New Zealand held in early November, the interest rate was maintained at the current level of 1.75%.
    According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.
    Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has already hinted that a weakening of the New Zealand dollar could help the country's exporters.
    On the other hand, the US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market both the background of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US, and against expectations of a ****ual increase in the rate of the Fed. According to some economists, the Fed can raise the rate not three, but four times in 2018.
    Fundamental factors support the further reduction of the NZD / USD pair.
    From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -3.5% (against the previous value of -1.0%). Dairy products - one of the main exports of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products will harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6775
    Resistance levels: 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270


    Trading scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6830. Take-Profit 0.6800, 0.6775, 0.6700
    Buy Stop 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7100




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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  3. #182
    Member TifiaFX is an unknown quantity at this point TifiaFX's Avatar
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    S&P500: major indexes have updated highs
    22/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    World stock indexes on Wednesday continued to rise. On the eve, the major US stock indices Dow Jones Industrial Average, S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite updated record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 23590, S & P 500 added 0.7%, Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.
    The leaders of growth were shares of technology companies. Apple's shares rose 1.9%, International Business Machines shares rose 1%, Microsoft shares rose 1.4%. The shares of these three technological giants made the largest contribution to the growth of DJIA. The shares of retailers also significantly strengthened. "Dollar Tree" went up by 2.4%, after the profit and proceeds of this discounter exceeded expectations. Shares of Hormel grew by 3.3%.
    Yesterday's rally completely offset the losses suffered by the indices in the last two weeks. This points to the strength of growth, despite concerns about the high ratings and unclear prospects for the tax reform proposed by the Republicans.
    Only a large increase in rates or a decline in the economy, according to economists, could lead to a more significant decline in the American stock market. In the next 6-12 months, this is not expected, therefore, most likely, the bullish trend will continue.
    On Wednesday, trading on the stock markets is sluggish in anticipation of a weekend in the US on Thursday, and a shortened one on Friday.
    Investors analyzed the statement of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who said that she would withdraw from the Board of Governors of the Central Bank, as soon as Jerome Powell will replace her at the post in February.
    Today Janet Yellen delivered a speech at the business school at New York University, which investors regarded as soft. "We expect inflation to rise (to the target level) in the next one or two years, but I have to say that I'm not sure about it", Yellen said.
    "We have almost reached full employment", Yellen said. The unemployment rate in October was 4.1%, becoming the lowest since December 2000. The Fed is facing a problem of low inflation for most of this year, despite the growth of the economy and a strong labor market.
    Yellen did not comment on the immediate prospects for monetary policy. The probability of a rate hike in December is above 90%, according to the CME Group. The last time the Fed raised rates in June, to the range of 1% -1.25%. At its meeting on September 19-20, the Fed signaled another increase in rates this year. It is expected that in 2018, the Fed will raise 3 or 4 times.
    As Janet Yellen previously stated, the rate hike speaks of the strength of the American economy. It is unlikely that a ****ual increase in rates will cause a reversal of the bullish stock market. On the contrary, the banking sector of the economy will benefit from this.
    Today, investors will focus on the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the protocol from the November meeting of the Fed (minutes FOMC). Investors will carefully study the text to understand the outlook for the current Fed policy and the increasing of the interest rate in the US. Volatility during the publication of the protocol can significantly increase, especially against the backdrop of low trading volumes on the eve of the celebration of Thanksgiving Day in the US on Thursday.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 2594.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
    Resistance levels: 2598.0, 2600.0, 2650.0, 2700.0

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 2592.0. Stop-Loss 2600.0. Objectives 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
    Buy Stop 2600.0 Stop-Loss 2592.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2700.0



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

    ---------- Post added 11-23-2017 at 01:39 PM ---------- Previous post was 11-22-2017 at 01:47 PM ----------

    USD/CHF: the dollar shows a large-scale decline
    23/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    After yesterday (19:00 GMT) minutes from the November meeting of the Fed were published, the dollar collapsed throughout the currency market. Although, in general, the protocols continued to testify to the Fed's commitment to further tightening monetary policy, there was something new in the rhetoric of the Fed's statements, which alarmed investors. Fed executives said that interest rates in December will be increased by 0.25%, however, they are not sure about the reasons for maintaining sluggish inflation. This, according to investors, can slow down the pace of monetary tightening in the coming year.
    The uncertainty about the Fed's leadership regarding the inflation forecast calls into question the vigorous pace of tightening monetary policy in the US. Earlier, it was announced about 3, and according to some information, 4 rate increases in 2018, starting already in March.
    As a result, yesterday the index of the dollar WSJ fell by 0.8% after the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting, and today the decline in the dollar continues against the backdrop of low trading volumes. The US and Japanese stock markets are closed today on the occasion of the holidays.
    On the Eurozone today, positive macro statistics emerged, which caused the euro to rise, including against the dollar, provoking additional pressure on the dollar.
    The dollar fell strongly against safe haven assets, such as gold, yen, franc. Concerning the dynamics of the franc, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the Head of the National Bank of Switzerland, Thomas Jordan, scheduled for today (16:30 GMT).
    The Swiss National Bank is pursuing an extra soft monetary policy, trying to disperse inflation in the country and supporting Swiss producers supplying their products for export. To disperse inflation, which is at a record low 0.7%, and lower, the NBS prints huge amounts of francs and uses them to buy foreign shares and bonds. From Thomas Jordan, traders will be waiting for signals about further plans for monetary policy of the National Bank. If he again traditionally declares his adherence to the course of the central bank, then the franc can react with a decrease, including against the dollar.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    The negative dynamics is prevailing.
    In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.9800, the targets for the decline will be support levels of 0.9775 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300), 0.9730 (EMA144, EMA200, bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart).
    Support levels: 0.9800, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445
    Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000

    Trading Scenarios

    Buy Stop 0.9840. Stop-Loss 0.9790. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000
    Sell Stop 0.9790. Stop-Loss 0.9840. Take-Profit 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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