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Thread: Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs MARCH 14- 18

  1. #1
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    Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs MARCH 14- 18

    This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX

    EURUSD
    Data released Monday on Industrial Production revealed that for the first month of the year, the indicator had increased by about 2.0% which is very far from the -1.0% we saw for December last year. This has supported the euro keeping in from falling much. Since the day began, we see that the pair has not traded far from the region of 1.1110 region. The daily chart points sustained decline in the EURUSD as even on the H1 chart, we see the pair trading below a simple moving average which had its period put at 20. Earlier on Monday, there was no clear direction of the trend as the pair look to have consolidation at around 1.1100. Looking critically at the trend so far,we can say it is more bearish. As the simple moving average earlier mentioned looks to move higher; even looking to get support at the region of 1.1088.

    The dollar in early trade sessions didn't suffer significant drop as investors have not stopped focusing on the FED meeting to hold this week. The pair in course of trading had dropped to 1.1096, this about a drop of 0.44%.The euro seem to be affected following a cut in interest rates by the ECB to fresh levels. As we saw the European Central Bank had reduced its benchmark rate to zero; previously it was at 0.05%.The stochastic is showing an overbought condition, with the MACD still pointing out to further possible drop in the pair.


    Looking to the future of the pair, the FED meeting on Wednesday is very crucial. Though we don't really expect interest rates to be raised but then given the latest indications of a weakening global economy,it is possible we may see interest decisions from the FED this Wednesday. It is even more likely as US jobs situation has not stopped strengthening.

    Support levels:1.1052, 1.1068, 1.1076
    Resistance levels: 1.1100, 1.1116, 1.1124

    EURUSD support and resistance:

    EURUSD indicators:


    General trading on the EURUSD today has been more of selling, as the pair struggled to maintain stay around the 1.1100. But then with the sustained trading activity around this region, if we see a break, then it is more likely it would go back to somewhere around 1.1079. This is more likely as traders ignored the data released today on EMUs Industrial Production. But for the immediate picture of the EURUSD, the trend looks to be a downtrend for some time.

    GBPUSD


    The pair could not hold on to its move to recover from a decline today as it traded in the region of 1.4378. This was after oil price sell-off came up again. This region is close to its daily low. The pair consequently traded at 1.4353 which is a drop more than -0.18%. This was following its trade at 1.4336 where is retested lows for the session of Early Europe. As European stocks rose higher, we saw the GBPUSD locating support close to 1.4337. The GBPUSD went down to 1.4316 which is a drop of over 0.46%.

    During the trading day today we saw that direction of trade look to point to a possible uptrend. This was seen as the pair touched 1.3835 which was a notable low from last month when the market's reaction to a possible exit of the UK from the EU was exaggerated. From the H4 chart, we see that piece is doing well on top of the exponential moving average with period at 200 at the region of 1.4258. Then the simple moving average with period at 20 going towards 1.4289.

    For now, the pair has not strengthened as it is still weak from pressure of the situation of oil prices earlier mentioned. In the situation of oil prices, the Brent lost by over 1.433 while the US oil went down too by over -0.187%. This greatly weakened the GBPUSD. The pair had shown retracement from 1.4435 which was a high it had set some three days ago. Then it went on to consolidate its most recent gains.


    Support level: 1.4281, 1.4293, 1.4301
    Resistance levels: 1.4321, 1.4333, 1.4341


    GBPUSD support and resistance:

    GBPUSD indicators:


    From the technical angle, we don't see this downside really lasting long. Investors are on the search for dips now, as they see this as nice points to open a position in the pair. Most technical indicators however shows that the bearish trend could be brief; most particularly as price has not yet come above a simple moving average with the period set at 20. On our chart, the RSI is giving a sell signal while the stochastic is showing a region of been oversold and then the MACD giving a sell signal which is the same from the ADX.

    Looking into the future of the pair, for us to see prices going up to the region of 1.4490, at least pair must first be able to consolidate above 1.4409.

    Also another possible happening for the pair is this. For a day moving average whose period is set at 55, if the pair could overcome this, then it may likely get on top of 1.4663. This region marks its high for last month. Similarly, if we happen to see a drop from 1.7189, it is more likely a downtrend ( on the long term) is starting again.

    For now, many investors don't favour the dollar as few are willing to take the risk to buy it. The pair this traded around 1.4369 today. There is sure to be more movement in this pair on wednesday when the United Kingdom will publish its most recent data on employment. We are expecting the unemployment figures to drop. If this happens, surely the GBPUSD would climb up.


    USDJPY

    On Monday, we see the pair found it difficult to hold on to gains it posted above 113.98 as it was trading within a tight range. In course of the Asian session today, we saw the Japanese yen dropping in strength while the Nikkei rose up.

    There is the chance that the Bank of Japan will likely postpone its move to reduce interest rates on Tuesday. Even up to till now, it is clear the USDJPY is still feeling the effect of the shocking move of the Bank of Japan to start using negative interest rates. For now, yet many investors feel that the Bank of Japan will try to improve their economy in the months to come by expanding their monetary stimulus. This is even more likely when we consider that the move the bank of Japan made in January didn't stop the rise in the Japanese yen. It is after Tuesday policy statement from the Bank of Japan that will give traders any indication that the bank could be dropping its negative interests any time soon.

    From the technical side, price action for the pair is still in the region of 113.48. This is on top of fibonacci retracement level which comes at 24%. This went on to form a support. The trend is more neutral though there is the chance that it could slide further down as most technical indicators on the H4 chart not showing a clear direction of the trend.In face of this, before we can see a very clear trend, it is most likely price would rise above 114.58 which seems to happen considering the Meeting of the Federal Reserve which will come on Wednesday.

    Support levels: 113.50, 113.55, 113.67
    Resistance levels: 113.84, 113.89, 114.01


    USDJPY support and resistance:

    USDJPY indicators:


    The Japanese yen has been looking to touch 114.04. If it does, then it could go dropping down to 111.87 and then go up back to 113.24.
    .

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  3. #2
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    Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs MARCH 21-25

    This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


    EURUSD
    The USD didn't change much against the dollar when trading began this week. There was no release of big US macroeconomic data so there was no much price movement on the EURUSD. The USD had come back from the drop it suffered from the latest policy move from Federal Reserve,the Fed announced that it is very possible for us to see hike in interest rates only two times for 2016 as the American economy stand the risk of an unpredictable global economy. Many investors in the market before this announcement were expecting the Fed to increase interest rates at least four times for 2016.

    There was increased pressure on the EUR as the Peter Praet (chief economist of the ECB) revealed that that the interest rates for the Eurozone could possibly still drop further. Consequently the dollar was steady against majority of its big rivals in a less busy Monday market. Thus the pair was trading around the region of 1.1274 steadily.

    Some hours later, The dollar held steady against the other major currencies in subdued trade on Monday, off Fridays five-month trough as the American dollar continued to recover from the Federal Reserves most recent policy statement.EUR/USD was steady at 1.1276. This was some distance above the low we got from the London session. Looking from the technical angle, it looks the pair may suffer further losses as we see the simple moving average with a period of 20 is yet looking to rise. The momentum indicator dropped; going under the level marked at 100.

    Consequently, data released on US home sales revealed to investors that the indicator has suffered a drop falling below general expectation of traders for February. The data revealed there was an over 6.9% decline in February for home resales in the US. This drop brings it down from 5.47 million to less than 5.09 million units for last month. Many of us was expecting it to drop at most to somewhere around 5.33 million units. This data is really powerful in the market as a lot of traders use it measure the general strength of the US economy. As the disappointment of the drop in the data hit the EURUSD, as it went on to hold trades around 1.1264 this was a significant movement from around 1.1256 it was trading before the data on US home sales was released.

    Now looking into the future of what is to come this week for the EURUSD. We have seen that both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are not really interested in raising interest rates any time soon. This means much may not really happen to EURUSD for this week as we may be see increased stability in price movement for the pair. Yet it is possible for prices to touch the level at 1.1200 should the US data to be released on initial jobless claims this week come out higher than our expectations. For now, the trend is struggling to remain bearish.

    Support levels: 1.0917, 1.1015, 1.1141
    Resistance levels: 1.1365, 1.14633, 1.1589

    EURUSD support and resistance:
    EURUSD indicators:

    USDJPY

    When the week began, the markets in Japan were still on closure as Japan was observing a national holiday. The American dollar didn't drop against the Japanese currency yet in the US session. The pair touched a daily high at 111.92 as it looks towards getting above 111.99. For sometime now of late, we have not seen the daily highly of 111.92.

    Looking back on Friday,we saw that the finance Minister for Japan, Taro Aso triggered rumors that the BOJ (Bank of Japan) would be interfering directly in the market. The minister said he would be strictly monitoring moves from the forex market as the USD moved up against the yen.

    We saw the pair dropping to fresh lows last week, lows fresh as we haven't seen them for over thirteen months now. The yen looked set to suffer more decline against the USD prior to be monetary policy to be released from the Federal Reserve. But as it turned out, the FED decided against raising its interest rates as its move towards postponing interest hikes was still upheld. And with the Japanese regulator not changing monetary policy too just like the FED, the Japanese yen gained more support.

    The USDJPY went to 111.72, a drop from 111.84 as data on existing US home sales had revealed that the indicator had dropped by over 7.0% as the data posted US home resales of less than 5.09 million. This was a massive drop from 5.47 million we saw for last month.

    Looking into the future, this Monday as we noted, trades on the pair were held in a flat range as Japan was observing a national holiday. The pair didn't trade much outside 111.40. For this week, the major event is core CPI from Tokyo. For the last two releases we have seem consecutive declines which is about 0.98%. Yet for now, the trend is majorly bearish.

    Support levels: 107.04, 108.92, 110.23
    Resistance levels: 113.42, 115.30, 116.61

    USDJPY support and resistance:
    USDJPY indicators:


    GBPUSD

    This month,the British pound has been doing reasonably well though So far data coming from the US have been more positive than those from the United Kingdom. Even though yesterday we didn't see a move from the Federal Reserve, it is becoming more obvious that the Fed is not planning to really raise interest rates this month or anytime soonest either. Even looking at the US economy, there is not much need to spur economic activity with a hike in the interest rates soonest.

    Thus this week, we saw the GBPUSD trading quite lower, though it didn't waste much time in bouncing back going on top 1.4373. The pound came under more pressure as there was no major data was released from the United Kingdom though it is more likely that this week will have increased price movement as we look to the data to be released on inflation today and then the data on retail sales. The UK consumer price index (CPI) is the major data to affect the pair this week. For January, the UK CPI came out as we expected, though the inflation data came down against our expectations as it dropped to 1.2% as we were expecting something around 1.3%.

    The sterling thus suffered losses with the pair dropping down going below 1.4440 such that it finished Monday at 1.4301 as many investors were already looking toward the CPI the next day. We are expecting the CPI to come out with a rise to 0.4%, up from 0.3%. If this happens and CPI is impressive enough to beat our expectation, then it is very likely the GBP would face a lift but then for a continued gain on the pound, it is most likely that will happen if it has crossed 1.4500.


    Also it is likely the CPI wouldn't not entirely be responsible for movement in the GBP/USD this week. By Thursday, we expect the market to have recovered reasonably from the effect of CPI indicator. Then investor focus would turn to the data to be released on the Retail Sales. For January, we saw a rebound in retail sales which exceeded a gain of 2.2% when a lot of investors were looking at somewhere around 0.78%. Should the data come out disappointing, it is most likely going to bring up a bearish trend on the GBPUSD.

    Support levels: 1.4190, 1.4263, 1.4368
    Resistance levels: 1.4546, 1.4619, 1.4724


    GBPUSD support and resistance:
    GBPUSD indicators:

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    Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs MARCH 28- APRIL 1

    This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX

    EURUSD

    The American dollar climbed up early on Monday in a market where there was less trading activity owing to holiday. Lot of major Banks in Europe were on the Easter Monday holiday as investors generally took their focus to the US data to be released later in the day as well as statements from the Fed officials on Tuesday- whether we could be seeing any signs of changes in interest rates.

    Consequently the dollar added strength following data which showed that U.S fourth quarter growth on Friday was positive as this supported a possible hike in interest rates in the months to come. Also data revealed that the gross domestic product from the US commerce department was also impressive for the fourth quarter as it was revised to 1.4% which is a good leap from 1% estimated from February. Economists generally in the market had expectations that the reading would remain unchanged. The pair went to to trade around 1.1169, a jump from around 1.1160 after it looked to fall before US data came out.
    .
    Data today also showed that the consumer spending for US climbed up too for February. This was comforting as a lot of investors in the market have been expecting it to rise and then PCE U.S. consumer spending rose in line with market expectations in February, while core Personal Consumption Expenditure prices (PCE) prices disappointed as they dropped below expectations. As such we saw much selling action for the pair as the EURUSD threatened to slip down. On the one hour chart, we saw the pair moving up to the region of 1.1174.
    Report coming from the commerce department in the United States revealed that personal spending didn't fall below what the market was expecting as it went up a bit by 0.1% after it was revised from the last reading of 0.5%. The EURUSD went on to trade at the region about 1.1171 after it had traded at about 1.1168 before the data was released.

    Support levels: 1.1136, 1.1146, 1.1153
    Resistance levels: 1.1174, 1.1181, 1.1192


    EURUSD support and resistance:

    EURUSD indicators:


    Now looking into the future, very important to how the EURUSD would fare this week is the speech of Janet Yellen, the Fed Chair. This statement is coming on Tuesday as we look to see if she will give us any new hints on whether interest rates would be raised anytime soon or possibly next month. It is very likely now that interest rates will rise as US data has been fairly impressive of late with many Fed officials supporting more than one interest rate hike this year. If you combine this with the situation in Europe, where there was increased fear about the future of the United Kingdom in the EU after last week terrorist bombing of Brussels, it is very possible the trend would be bearish.


    GBPUSD

    This Monday, investors were still worried over whether the United Kingdom would be pulling out of the EU. In recent sessions, we saw the USD adding more strength after data released showed an impressive fourth quarter growth from the United States. This coupled with the fact that a lot of FED officials are pushing for increase in interest rates supported the American dollar. Yet the sterling went on to extend gains as the pair moved up to 1.4221 which is almost a jump of over 0.67%.

    This was after it had traded at lows in Asian trade at about 1.4119. With the pair moving on to 1.4172 struggling to break above the region of 1.4179. The British pound was pushing to come up again on as a good part of the market was on holiday after we saw last week much selling action on the pair. The selling action we saw last week was majorly about a possibly close FED interest hike for April and June as well as if the UK would be staying the EU for much longer.

    Consequently, it looked the GBPUSD would be going higher as the USD suffered a setback in its latest climb against the major currencies. The USD had moved up to one-week high before this as comments from Fed officials all point to a very close hike in interest rates. On a holiday Monday like we had today, investors shifted their attention to the data on personal consumption expenditure (PCE) to be released from the US which turned out to be below what we were generally expecting. The GBP went on to drop down from 1.4180 which marked the region of its daily high going back down to around 1.4158 as we saw reduced volatility in the market owing to equally reduced trading activity.

    Support levels: 1.4081, 1.4100, 1.4112
    Resistance levels: 1.4150, 1.4162, 1.4181


    GBPUSD support and resistance:

    GBPUSD indicators:


    Looking into the future, the speech of the Bank Of England (BOE) Chief, Carney which will come on Thursday will affect the speed at which the price of the EURUSD will change.
    Now if we consider that for last week, we saw the British crashing down against the USD to the region of 1.4052, a fall which cleared all the gains it had recorded two weeks earlier. This showed us that economic recovery in the UK is not too impressive as it is not fast enough. Now, if we look further to the increased fears that UK will leave the EU as voting points towards an exit in a critical referendum to come two months from now; in face of likely to be increased interest rates hike from the FED. All this makes it likely that the GBP would continue falling against the American dollar maintaining a downtrend.


    USDJPY

    The American dollar went up against the Japanese yen on Monday in face of less trading activity on Monday due to holidays. Focus on Monday was majorly on the statements to come from FED officials if we will be seeing hikes in interest rates in the months to come. As such the pair moved up to the region of 113.58; which is a leap of over 0.40%.

    The yen lost strength during the Asian session as concerns came up again that the Prime Minister of Japan Abe could hold off an increase in sales tax as well introduce a fiscal stimulus plan this Tuesday. The pair moved up consequently looking to settle during European session for a while around 113.60.The pair was forced lower owing to disappointing US data as the as core inflation dropped down into a region which is negative for the month of February. This gives the Federal Reserve serious thoughts as to raising interest rates.

    Over four weeks now, we have seen the USDJPY having its consolidation in a descending channel following a very noticeable drop sometime in January. The drop was a product of massive push of investors for the Japanese yen being a safe-haven asset. Last week worries concerning the decline of the USD were reduced as impressive data came from the United States as well as comments from FED officials which supported the prospects of a rise in interest rates. Also coupled with poor macroeconomic news from Japan. Yet in spite of this, it was rather unusual when we saw the USD very early today losing its early gains to the yen such that the pair was pulled down to the region of 113.14. Dropping some points from 113.69 which marks its position as a daily high; but not farther than 113.50 before US data came in on regional manufacturing index as well as new home sales.

    Support levels: 112.45, 112.66, 112.80
    Resistance levels: 113.23, 113.37, 113.59


    USDJPY support and resistance:

    USDJPY indicators:




    Looking in the future, investors will be majorly concerned about the data to be released on the Tankan Manufacturing index. This is due to come on Thursday this week. This macroeconomic indicator could be seen as the equivalent of manufacturing PMI (purchasing manager's index) which we have from the United States. Looking at the last releases on the indicator, we can say it has been steady as it had posted over eleven points for four times in the previous five months. Investors generally expect about eight points this time.
    Now should this Tankan indicator post disappointing data in face of likely interest rates hike from the Federal Reserve, it is likely the Japanese yen will continue to fall.

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    Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs APRIL 4- 8

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    EURUSD

    Unemployment statistics from Spain was encouraging as the amount of persons without employment had dropped in March. In the last three months, this was the first time there was a drop in this data from Spain. This relaxed worries over the how well europe's economy was doing given that Spain was europe's fourth largest economy. Going by a report from the Ministry of Employment from the country, there was a drop of 58200 in the amount of people without job.

    In the report, Spains Employment Ministry said the number of unemployed people only rose by 2,200 when the many investors predicted it would rise by over 20,000. Before this macroeconomic data was published the EURUSD at 1.3175; after the news the pair traded at 1.377.

    Also this Monday, general unemployment rate for the Eurozone saw a significant decline, falling to its least level since 2012; as this put the euro under pressure as investors were further concerned over the recovery of the European economy. Coming in a report from Eurostat, the unemployment rate for the Eurozone had dropped to 10.3% from 10.4% we had last two months for the month of January. We have not had a reading from Eurozone this low since almost five years ago. This slightly pushed the EURUSD to 1.1372.


    US employment reports were encouraging as it was reported that there was an addition of 215,000 jobs for the month of March to US economy. This was ahead of what many investors were expecting as general market expectations were at 205,000 jobs addition. Despite this upbeat data, it was thus disappointing for the Federal Reserve last week to decide against raising interest rates soonest. The EURUSD dropped to the region of 1.1360, getting support at the around 1.1358; coming up again to around 1.1388 which a little close to the price it started the week at.

    Support levels: 1.0929, 1.1040, 1.1215
    Resistance levels: 1.5101, 1.1612, 1.1787


    EURUSD support and resistance:


    EURUSD indicators:



    Looking into the future, likely to affect the dollar this week is the release of minutes of meeting from Federal Open Market committee to come out on Wednesday. This could further draw down the USD as it looks more like it wouldn't make claims for interest rate hike. It is thus very possible the dollar is going to post further drops as investors recover from last week given Fed decision to hold off interest rate hike after it looked very likely there would be one so. This was a lot of Fed officials had previously indicated their support for a hike. So we could see further decline for the USD. If the USD is going to recover this week, it is likely to come from the Esther L. George's comments who is the president of the Federal Bank of Kansas City as she was the only one who didn't vote for keeping interest rate hike on hold.




    GBPUSD

    The American dollar got closer to a low level which it had posted since the last week of February. Thus losing some of the gains it had picked up against other principal currencies in the market. There was not much volatility in the early stage of trading on Monday as the FED weren't convinced against holding off interest rates despite impressive data from the US data on employment. The dollar thus dropped against the GBP as the pair climbed up by over 0.46% to 1.4289.

    Construction activity from the UK was not bad for March going by reports from the published PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) release most recently. The data on UK construction activity for the month of March had a reading of 54.2 as there is no alteration from the one it posted for last two months. As such this didn't really contribute much to the price movement of the GBPUSD.

    Consequently the GBPUSD climbed above the handle of 1.43 and was looking to go further. Looking at this we saw that the drop we had in the GBPUSD for the last week Friday was more of a fake out as it was a brief reversal. Today, investors didn't really worry much about the possible exit of the UK from the Eurozone.

    The pair thus traded in the region of 1.4380. Except the dip we had in February when Johnson Boris (mayor of London) jumped on the campaign for the UK to leave the EU; the GBPUSD so far this year has been closely in this region. Investors have been very cautious with the GBP as the market awaits the critical referendum in June (on whether or not the UK will pull out from the EU) as prices so far have failed to suggest there would be a significant surge in the GBPUSD. So far the resistance at 1.4550 has been tested severally with the pair having no success in breaking it.


    Support levels: 1.3733, 1.3925, 1.4074
    Resistance levels: 1.4415, 1.4607, 1.4756


    GBPUSD support and resistance:


    GBPUSD indicators:



    Looking into the future, the pair had turned sharply around last week, recording gains of over 88 points. The pair subsequently ended last week at 1.4220. For the week, major news that would affect prices of the GBPUSD consequently is the data on Manufacturing data which we expect later this week. So far the dollar would have enjoyed massive boost had the FED followed expectations and hint a soon interest rate hike but Janet Yellen Fed Chair dashed such hopes as it seems we could be having just two or even less interest rate hike this year. Going over to the UK, the economy is not too strong as investors are bothered with inflation levels which have been so far weak. This makes the trend for now more neutral. But then it is possible the pair would move up a little bit further a little above the region of 1.4380.




    USDJPY

    It was really shocking that Fed officials adopted decision not to touch interest rates in the critical March meeting whole market was looking up to. Majority of investors were almost confident that an interest rate hike was likely given a strengthening labour market and growing inflation level. But as it seems now, it is getting more certain that instead of the four interest rates we were expecting this year, it is likely we will be having only two from the Federal Reserve as the Federal Reserve were looking more at the global economy than impressive US data.

    Thus the USD/JPY suffered a decline losing over 188 points as there was a strong rebound in the yen last week. This was due to a very noticeable drop in the Nikkei 225 as reports from the Tankan data showed that there was a sharp fall as regards business confidence among major Japanese manufacturers. The reading for the Tankan data showed a distinct drop to +6 in Q1 from the +12 we had in Q4. This reading marks the least level the Tankan data had posted for almost three years now.

    Going back to the US, we saw Non-farm payrolls doing better than what investors were anticipating, but this couldn't push the dollar up owing to the statements from Janet Yellen on leaving interest rates unchanged. Prior to the release of the data on Non farm payroll, investors were resorting to safe-haven assets. All the same, the USDJPY could not find its way below 112.00 which was a special support.

    Support levels: 108.59,110.08, 110.83
    Resistance levels: 113.07, 114.56, 115.31


    USDJPY support and resistance:


    USDJPY indicators:



    Looking into the future, we are now almost certain we wouldn't be having interest rates hike soonest. Though the economy of Japan has not really been too impressive since the Bank of Japan took up negative interest rates. It is thus more possible that the Bank of Japan wouldn't pull down the yen giving the yen a boost to rise. Considering all these, it is more likely the trend would be bearish.

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    Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs APRIL 11- 15

    This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


    EURUSD

    The American dollar didn't really leave the region of its six-month lows on Monday where it traded lower against its principal currencies. No very significant data was released from the US today as the pair seemed stuck around six month lows in it's biggest pairs. The pair struggled to leave this region as the stance of the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates soonest clamped down on the dollar. Thus the EURUSD pair climbed up by over 0.28%.

    Quite on a less busy Monday for the EURUSD, we had the pair trading without much action around the region of 1.1400. The pair couldn't easily move far past this region as it was slowed down by an improved European stock market. Lack of major data today really caused the pair to be sluggish today as we saw a weak price action from the pair.

    The pair had moved up to highs which we have not seen for a day as some traders were looking more at selling owing to the lack of release of macroeconomic data on the pair. As such the pair went up struggling to break past the resistance of 1.1448. But it couldn't get to 1.1453 which has been the highest point the pair has gotten since January this year. It consequently fell down to 1.1438.

    Later in the day, the American dollar looked to make a comeback as investors were already looking at the statements to come from Federal Reserve policy makers from the US which would be coming in course of the week. A good number of analysts in the market are having expectations that there would still be up to two interest rates this year in face of upcoming US inflation data. But then investors were very cautious in the market as they didn't want to have high hopes for the dollar given that bullish statements coming from other Federal Reserve officials have not been previously enough to convince Janet Yellen to be more in favour of interest rate increase.

    Support levels: 1.1284, 1.1316 , 1.1354
    Resistance levels; 1.1424, 1.1456, 1.1494

    EURUSD support and resistance:


    EURUSD indicators:



    Looking forward, minutes of meeting coming from the Federal Open Market committee were more dovish with the dollar battling hard through out last week to stage a comeback on impressive US data released. But then the US trade balance had come out above what the market was expecting, while data on non-manufacturing PMI also came out higher. Now a lot of investors have recovered from the disappointment of the federal being hesitant on raising interest rates. German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel had put more pressure on the euro when he admitted an exit of the UK from the EU Ais actually in the best interest of the UK. Considering all these, it is very likely the trend for the EURUSD would be downward.



    USDJPY

    The American dollar dropped heavily to 17-month lows today against the Japanese yen. This was majorly due to the warning which came from government officials in Japan. These officials warned about the possibility of the Japanese government deliberately cutting down the strength of the yen. The pair fell down dropping to 107.65 which has been a low for the pair; in fact the lowest for almost two years now.

    Japans Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga was majorly responsible for the drop of the American dollar on Monday as he revealed that Japan was looking very closely at the forex market in a bid to check an unbalanced growth of the yen. Consequently we saw the American dollar suffering a decline of over 2.98% against the yen. This fall brings it down to a combined fall of 10% since this year began.

    In course of the Asian session, the USDJPY was unable to stage a significant comeback as it dropped to 107.60. This point is a low for many months now with no major US data being released for the day as the pair moved on yet failing to get past the region of 108.30 with no nearest sight of a growth in the pair for Monday. With statements coming from Kuroda governor of the Bank of Japan further piling pressure on the dollar.


    Investors today were very reluctant to buy the USDJPY today even as the Federal Reserve doesn't look promising either with interest rates not to be raised any soon. The pair spent a while hovering around 108.20 which marked its 17-month low.

    Support levels: 103.05, 105.55, 106.80
    Resistance levels: 110.55, 113.05, 114.30

    USDJPY support and resistance:


    USDJPY indicators:


    Looking into the future, we all know that the American dollar is not really very attractive to investors when interest rates are low. So far the Japanese yen has been on the rise majorly for the year. This is because its safe-haven status is been supported by uncertainty about how well Europe's banking sector is doing added to the crashes we saw in the stock markets from China for some time now. The shocking move of the Bank of Japan to take up negative interest rates have not hit the yen down as the yen is still gathering strength. Yoshide Suga Japans Chief Cabinet Secretary sparked further interests on the yen with indications of possible intervention from the Japanese government. This this could cause the yen to possibly rise rise further against the dollar provided statements coming from the Federal Reserve officials this week are not too in favour of interest hike. So it is more likely the yen would rise further.

    .


    GBPUSD

    For the GBPUSD, at the start of Monday, we saw quite a quiet trade session, as majority of trading activity today was on the USDJPY owing to major releases and statements coming from Japan. The pound was poised to rise higher, a good number of traders were reluctant to hold long positions on the pair due to renewed fears on the future of the UK in the EU.

    The GBPUSD climbed higher on Monday as we saw very scanty major macroeconomic news coming from the US. Following an Asian session which saw reduced trading activity got the GBPUSD, the pair was further pushed up going up to 1.4224. It didn't really spend much time there as it eventually dropped down to about 1.4198.

    In course of the trading day, the pound rose noticeably up impressively to levels we have not seen from the GBPUSD for almost three weeks. This is a sustained growth from last week as there was a rise in the demand for riskier assets as the trading day went on. The pair maintained its rise up ascending to 1-week highs as the USD failed to show signs of getting stronger. The GBPUSD consequently went up further to trade at 1,4255 though finding it difficult to break past the 1.43 handle.


    This is not too surprising really to those who have been watching the pair very closely. The statement of Germany EU chief sprang up concern about if the United Kingdom would pull out of the EU. This reaction from the statement generating positive attention on the British pound. Coupled with reduced macroeconomic releases from the US, the rise for today was not too unlikely.

    Support levels: 1.13719, 1.3880, 1,4000
    Resistance levels: 1.4281 1.4442 1.4562


    GBPUSD support and resistance:


    GBPUSD indicators:


    Now looking into the future, we would be expecting data on UK inflation this week. Major attention for the week will be on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which will be coming on Tuesday. As regards data on inflation coming from the UK, analysts are expecting a possible reading of 0.4% for last month. Data for the USD to be released this week look to be very positive as it is possible the dollar would stage a recovery this week. Thus the GBPUSD could be bearish.

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    Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs APRIL 18- 22

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    EURUSD


    There was a disappointment in the latest US retails sales reading as retail sales was reduced by about 0.3%. Many analyst in the forex weren't expecting the US retail sales data to be reduced more than 0.1%. As a result of this, a number of traders still hoped this would persuade the Federal Reserve to look towards interest rate soonest. But then hopes of any significant Federal move on interest rates was overshadowed by the general disappointment on Monday of the failed Doha meeting among major OPEC and non-OPEC countries. This sent oil prices on a fall which also affected the dollar as it fell likewise. Thus, the EURUSD had risen up against the dollar at the beginning of the trading day on Monday to the region of 1.130 after it began the week at 1.129.


    Worse for the dollar was a discouraging reading from Consumer sentiment measured by the University of Michigan. This macroeconomic data has fallen to 89.7. This points mark the least point it has ever dropped to in almost a year. In a series of underperforming data from the US, only Unemployment meant well for the dollar as it had dropped to 253,000. This number is its least in the over 41 years. This data didn't really push many traders to action in Monday trading as the market on Monday was less focused on Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Major trading activity on the dollar was centered about the failure of oil producing countries to freeze oil output at January levels. With Saudi Arabia insisting that Iran must also cut production, the meeting failed to reach a decision.

    This caused commodity currencies majorly the dollar to fall in Monday trading. As trading went on, the euro posted gains against the American dollar as it climbed up to 1.1331 which is a daily high. The EURUSD pair was majorly stuck to the region of the 1.1300 for most of the trading day. The dollar struggled against its major pairs as many investors had been hoping the meeting would be successful in pushing up oil prices. The prospects and hopes of success before the meeting had been more solid when Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum exporting countries OPEC had a agreed to preamble deal to freeze oil output. So it was disastrous when the hopes crashed on Monday and the dollar was really hurt.

    Next to come on Thursday would be very vital announcement of the European Central Bank (ECB) in its its minimum bid rate. We don't expect the ECB to change rates following the failure of its easing program it had adopted last month. of . The EURUSD went further on its recovery rising higher after it had previously fallen to 1.1232 last week.

    Support level: 1.1220, 1.1247, 1.1279
    Resistance levels: 1.1338, 1.1365, 1.1397


    EURUSD support and resistance:

    EURUSD indicators:

    Looking forward, as the market recovers from the result of the failed meeting among OPEC and non-OPEC countries, investors will be shifting their attention to the interest rate decision from the ECB on Thursday. The ECB president Mario Draghi has vowed to do anything it takes to boost inflation. From the US, Federal Reserve President Jeffery Lacker voiced his support for four interest rate hikes this year. It is more likely the euro will drop from ECB's moves this Thursday. So if you combine this with the statement from the Federal Reserve president, it is likely the dollar would climb up again again the euro. So it is more possible the EURUSD trend would be bearish.




    USDJPY

    On Monday, the Japanese yen had risen against the American dollar to eighteen-month highs. This was enhanced by the safe-haven nature of the yen as there was a reasonable drop in oil prices following the failure of oil-exporting nations to come to a general agreement to reduce production. The failure of the much anticipated meeting had cut down on the appetite of investors for riskier assets hence turning to the yen. Thus USDJPY had fallen down to 107.85 a low not too distant from that it fell to last week at 107.62.

    Many were looking up to Saudi Arabia to ensure the success of the meeting on Sunday and play a pivotal role in making sure daily production of oil doesn't over-exceed demand. But Saudi Arabia rather insisted Iran (who are bent on increasing production levels) must also agree to freeze output. Iran is poised to defy calls by Saudi Arabia as Iran is looking seriously at retuning to the volume it was operating before now that the sanctions from the West (due to the nuclear program of Iran) have been lifted. The USD/JPY fell a distance down of over 0.50% sliding well to 108.22.


    Since 2016 began, we have been seeing the Japanese yen on the rise. This owing to the discomfort of investors with negative-interest-rate-policies coming from Europe. Eventually, investors feel safer with the Japanese yen which is a far less riskier asset. For some time now, officials in Japan have been signaling an intervention from Tokyo as the yen is gaining very fasting. But prospects of such intervention were reduced noticeably in the market on Monday as US indicated (at the G20 meeting) its disapproval for nations devaluing their currency deliberately.

    As the Monday trading day went on, we saw the dollar trying to come up again as commodity currencies (hit by falling oil prices) tried to make a little comeback. The small move up for the dollar was encouraged as investors saw relief in a strike by workers from the Kuwait's oil and gas sector. The American dollar tried to pull back from 107.81 which marked its low for the session. With the pair looking to make up a bit to a region of 108.80.

    Support levels: 106.95, 107.39 , 108.10
    Resistance levels: 109.25, 109.69, 110.40


    USDJPY support and resistance:

    USDJPY indicators:



    Looking into the future, poor economic data from the US doesn't seem to help the dollar. The slump in oil prices which has been greatly affecting the dollar might not ending anytime soon as Saudi Arabia has threatened to increase their production capacity should a formal agreement not be reached to support oil prices soonest. Iran listening to Saudi Arabia to cut down oil production is very unlikely owing to tensions between both nations as both of them are virtually fighting themselves in Syria as well as Yemen. Thus we expect a sustained slide in oil prices, this could make more traders turn to the yen being a safe-haven currency while the USD would go down with the oil prices. Thus for now, the USDJPY trend is most likely bearish.






    GBPUSD



    On Monday, the GBPUSD was really unstable at the beginning of trading for the week. The pair had dropped as low as 1.1414, it ****ually scaled up back to 1.1419. Major concerns in the market rotated about how the EU referendum would turn out. There was a rise from 6% to 17% for those who are not really decided on leaving the EU or staying back either.

    The GBPUSD went down in course of the trading day due to data from inflation data. Treasury report claimed that British households would become 4,300 poorer should the UK leave the EU. Opponents agitating for the UK to leave the EU didn't agree with the claim that British households could get 4300 poorer in case of an EU pull out. Consequently, the UK chancellor echoed his fears as he warned UK voters to exercise more caution in their push for an exit from the EU as a pull out of the UK from the EU could make British households poorer for a very long time.

    The GBP/USD thus suffered a decline to the region of 1.4130 when trading began on Monday; worsened still by the slump in oil prices but as the strike by Kuwait like and gas workers came up, the pair managed a comeback to the 1.4200 handle.

    Going over to the US, data on New York manufacturers report has come in improved as the survey had added about 9.5 points, this increase bringing it to the highest this data had posted for a year. Federal Reserve doesn't really look to be aiming to increase interest rates soon as Janet Yellen revealed they were looking at the global economy and not just the US economy. But many investors weren't looking at these data as they had their eyes on the outcome of the party leader vote in a build up to upcoming US general elections.

    Support levels: 1.4014, 1.4072, 1.4174
    Resistance levels: 1.4014, 1.4072, 1.4174


    GBPUSD support and resistance:


    GBPUSD indicators:


    Looking into the future, latest analysis revealing the harm the UK would face if they leave the EU have persuaded many against the idea of leaving, thus strengthening the pound for the meantime. Not very meaningful data would be coming from the US this week. This added with falling oil prices and a weakening dollar (as the Federal Reserve may not be touching interest rates soonest) makes it more likely that the GBP would rise against the dollar.

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    Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs APRIL 25- 29

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    EURUSD

    The American dollar failed to record significant gains against its major pairs on Monday. This was worsened with disappointing macroeconomic data from the US housing sector. Reports coming from the Department of Commerce in the United States had revealed that there was a drop in the new home sales. The readings posted by this data last showed a fall to 510,000 units; thus amounting to a drop of over 1.4%. Many in the market had been expecting a rise to 520,000 units from February which is about a climb of 1.0%.

    Yet the EURUSD didn't respond significantly to this weak data as it didn't change much from its session highs, trading in the region of 1.1256.

    This was after similarly disappointing results emerged from Germany today as the results for the IFO survey for the month of April showed a decline in business confidence as firms complained that working conditions have not been supportive. This casting doubt on the economic recovery of the EU. This had brought the pair to around 1.1262 which was its peak reached during the European trading session.

    Last week majorly, Mario Draghi had maintained his stand on Thursday that the ECB would make use of all its monetary policies to get inflation back to the target of 2%. After this we saw the EURUSD reacting greatly to this statement from the president of the European Central Bank (ECB). Such that counting from the last meeting of the ECB, we have seen the pair move by over 600 pips getting to 1.1464 which we have not seen for since October last year.

    Support levels: 1.0978, 1.1098, 1.1159
    Resistance levels: 1.1314, 1.1460, 1.1521


    EURUSD support and resistance:

    EURUSD indicators:



    Now looking into the future, data from the US today from the housing sector was disappointing. We thus look to that to come on Tuesday on US durable goods order as well as consumer confidence.

    Yet data from this is not really expected to contribute much to timing of interest rates as Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve has repeatedly maintained that the Federal Reserve has its eyes watching the global economy more than the US economy so that interest rate hikes don't prove too soon. Thus even dovish look of the next federal reserve meeting wouldn't really cut down on the dollar.

    Rather what would affect the EURUSD more likely is Mario Draghi statement from the ECB. Mario has insisted that the ECB would strive to push inflation levels higher. If you combine this with the fact that investors in the market are already used to with the persistence of the FED to hold interest rates and that no major data would be coming from Europe in course of the week. Then it is more likely the EUR would go down against the dollar thus making the EURUSD trend bearish.




    USDJPY


    At the beginning of the trading day on Monday, we saw the dollar climbing down from its 3-week high against the Japanese yen. This was as focus was majorly around the next moves to come from the Bank of Japan as many investors were expecting the Bank of Japan to adopt more measures to cut down on the strengthening yen. The USDJPY went down to about 111.30 which if compared to 111.88 which were its overnight highs.

    As the day went we saw the dollar slipping further down in face of disappointing data coming from the US new home sales. The USDJPY went further down to 111.10.

    For last week, the dollar initiated a small recovery against the yen as it gained over 2% over the yen. This was caused by Bloomberg emphasizing the possibility of the Bank of Japan expanding its negative interest policy which the bank of Japan launched far back in January.

    Fast forward to Monday, the recovery of the USD against the yen was greatly hampered as traders appeared to be taking profits and selling the American dollar. This was clearly out of place as there is yet the big possibility that the bank of Japan could be bringing on more policies to weaken the yen. The USD thus fell down from highs of 3 weeks.

    The market is really divided as regards the next moves from the bank of Japan. Many are expecting the bank not to bring on more easing policies as the bank reviews how much results the negative interest rates have brought.

    Also investors are watching with interest to what decision the US Federal Reserve could arrive though a decision not to increase the interest rates wouldn't be too shocking. The last December hike in interest rates from the FED was actually the first in about 10 years. Though it is more likely that interest rates will not change. Yet the meeting is expected to give investors a hint of whether any interest rate could come up by June.


    Support levels: 105.17, 106.50, 109.14
    Resistance levels:113.11, 114.44, 117.08


    USDJPY support and resistance:

    USDJPY indicators:

    Now looking into the future, investors expect the Bank of Japan to try to reduce the increasing yen. This will generate positive attention for the yen. Again unsteadiness in oil prices will make more investors turn to the yen being a safe haven asset while cutting down the USD. Added with no hopes of interest rates hike from the Federal Reserve anytime soonest, it is more likely the USD would be going down further against the yen.


    GBPUSD

    Trades for now on the GBPUSD majorly centers around the future of Britain in the EU. This Monday, we saw the sterling rising against the dollars as hopes increased that Britain would still be staying in the EU. These hopes that Britain will not leave the EU were well supported after Barack Obama, President of the US aired his opinion too about the supposed future of Britain in the EU.

    Official statistics from Betfair betting exchange discloses a formal drop from 37%-25% in the chances of Britain leaving the EU come the referendum to hold by June 23.
    In course of the Asian trade, the sterling made a climb against the dollar; rising to 1.4435. Sometime last week, the British pound was enjoying its best week again the dollar since the month of March began as the odds are now in favour of Britain remaining in the EU.

    Last sunday, President obama had called on Britain not to leave the EU advising them they would suffer the inconvenience of waiting about ten years to again enjoy free trade deal with the US should they pull out of the group. As a major feature of Obama's visit to London, he regularly pointed out the hurt that could befall Britain should they insist on pulling out of the EU.

    The GBPUSD has over time gotten to peaks the pair has not reached since the middle of February as President Obama has called for the Britain not to leave the EU group which comprises of 28 members. Thus we saw the pair getting to 1.4518 which is a high for one day but didn't spend much time above the 1.45 handle as it subsequently fell down to 1.4472.

    The GBP so far has suffered a decline of over 8.5% since talks of the referendum to hold on June 23 began having effects on the GBPUSD from far back in November last year. Even a number of big vital banks have as well released warning that British pound could suffer a crisis which could cause the GBPUSD to decline by over 1.20 points should Britain still leave.


    Support levels: 1.3882, 1.4006, 1.4203
    Resistance levels: 1.4524, 1.4648, 1.4845


    GBPUSD support and resistance:
    GBPUSD indicators:


    Looking into the future, last week we had British pound gaining on the dollar. This could continue this week for the fact that the federal reserve do not look like raising interest rates till July. So a more likely insistence of the FED to keep off interest hikes would make the dollar less attractive. This added to the gains the pound is making from a more certain future on the EU, the pound would make more gains against the dollars.,

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    Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs May 2- 6

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    EURUSD

    The EURUSD added strength on Monday to move through 1.1500. This increase in the pair will mark the first time the pair has risen to this height since August last year in face of prospects that the Federal Reserve wouldn't be raising interest rates soonest.

    The euro has been on a steady rise for over five days now. This run of form for the European currency is noticeably its best counting as far back as September 2015. This is following data on manufacturing which reveled that the Eurozone has exceeded expectation.

    The PMI (purchasing managers' index) for the Eurozone had risen to touch 51.7 for last month. A lot of investors were thinking the reading wouldn't change from the 51.5 it posted last for the month of March. Thus the EURUSD hit 1.1491 which is about a 7-month high.

    On a trading Monday, we saw that the American dollar had dropped down against many of its major pairs with increasing frustration among traders. This frustration owing to the reluctance of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even by June 12. This consistency in the weakness of the dollar had made it easy for the euro to climb against the dollar for a consecutive third month in April.

    This run of three months gain of the euro against the dollar would now set the place for the longest duration of gains for the euro against the dollar for about three years now. This is in face of uncertainty that policy makers from the US are yet to get persuaded into believing a hike in interest rates would not hurt the US economy amidst a poorly performing global economy.


    Impressive signs of economic recovery from Europe coupled with less encouraging macroeconomic data from the US has put the dollar under heavy downward pressure. Improvement in the US labour market has not been sufficient in pulling the dollar up. While the coast seems clear for the euro as data from last Friday revealed that Europe's economy has been on an improvement with unemployment even falling to lows last seen five years back.

    Support levels: 1.1041, 1.1128, 1.1286
    Resistance levels: 1.1531, 1.1618, 1.1776


    EURUSD support and resistance:

    EURUSD indicators:

    Looking into the future, so far we can say the EUR/USD enjoyed a remarkable run last week. Well, with GDP growth for the euro beating expectations as well as unemployment rate diving down outstandingly, the euro is looking very good. So far we have seen the ECB showing less intent in curbing the increases of the euro coupled with the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will not increase interest rates even next month. Thus we don't expect the euro to go down against the dollar any time soonest. The trend for the EURUSD is likely to remain bullish.




    USDJPY


    This Monday, we saw the Japanese yen rising up to new highs against a weakening dollar. The rise of the yen against the dollar brought the USDJPY to lows of eighteen months. This is as investors are worried whether or not Japanese authorities would introduce measures in the market to possibly curtail the rapid gains of the yen.


    The USD/JPY crashed to 106.16. This is one of the least points it has fallen to since 2014 October. For some time now, the dollar has been on the receiving end of losses against the yen even falling down further last week by a margin of over 4.44%. If we track back, we will see that this decline in the USDJPY is notably the worst it has experienced since 2008 where we had the memorable global financial crisis.


    At the end of the last meeting on Thursday by the Bank of Japan, the bank held back from introducing new easing policies. With the consistent gains in the yen for some time now, it was very likely that the bank would adopt further easing measures.


    Though this was not sure as the US Treasury had reminded Japan of the pledges they made at the G7 and G20 meeting where Japan was cautioned against deliberately intervening in the foreign exchange market to clamp down on the gains of the yen. With the US treasury revealing its content with the situation of the yen and dollar as it described the current dollar-yen market was "orderly".


    The pair had gone past 106.12 in the first hours of Asian trade. This is as investors can't fully cut out the chances of the Bank of Japan still bringing up easing measures. In fact this is even possible as in course of the weekend, Taro Aso who is the finance minister of Japan had revealed his deep concerns with the rising yen. In his very words he described the situation as "extremely concerning,".


    Support levels: 98.79, 102.53, 104.41

    Resistance levels: 110.03, 113.77, 115.65


    USDJPY support and resistance:

    USDJPY indicators:

    Now looking into the future, we have seen the USD/JPY post very big losses so far last week. The pair had even gone as bad as closing the week at 106.23; the last time it closed this low for a week was in October 2014.


    Now the steady gains recorded by the yen would seem to force the Bank of Japan into adopting easing measures. But this is not too easy as the US has said they would be looking closely at Japan moves to intervene in the foreign exchange market. Moreover Japan had pledged in the G20 meeting not to really intervene and manipulate the yen. This added with the chances that no interest rate hike is coming any soon from the federal reserve makes it very likely that the yen will keep gaining against the dollar.




    GBPUSD

    The GBP/USD pair began the week with no much trading action. This weak trading activity we had on the pair for this Monday was as a result of little notable macroeconomic news coming from the United Kingdom. The clamour around the pound as to whether Britain would leave the EU didn't not really spur much trading action today.

    Thus, the pair simply drifted around the region of 1.4655. In face of lack of macroeconomic data from the UK, investors looked to the US where on Thursday data had revealed a slowdown in US growth. The American gross domestic product had increased by only 0.5% which was rather disappointing. Reports coming last Friday consequently showed that personal consumption, as well as personal spending had clicked up for the month of March by 0.1%.


    This contributed on Monday as the GBPUSD went on in course of the day to trade close to 1.4658 and then falling again to the region of 1.4655. The pair still rallied up to 1.4696 as it strived to break past the 1.4700. This was as investors were majorly waiting for direction to go on the pair from the news to be released on ISM manufacturing PMI data. This would help in estimating how well the US manufacturing sector has been performing.

    A weak American dollar which is not any helped by the Federal Reserve fell a number of sessions against the British pound. The central bank dashed hopes of a recovering dollar as it once again voted 9 to 1 to hold on to the present policy in April. This has brought the gains posted by the GBPUSD to two straight weeks. Hope in the recovery of the dollar is getting slimmer as chances of Janet Yellen of the federal reserve changing her mind on interest rates is quite low.


    Support levels: 1.4181, 1.4292, 1.4448
    Resistance levels: 1.4715, 1.4826, 1.4982


    GBPUSD support and resistance:

    GBPUSD indicators:

    Looking into the future, on the longer term, traders would be bothered about the upcoming referendum which will decide the fate of the United Kingdom in the EU. But until then,major turns in the GBPUSD for this week will be decided by how well the UK and the US economy would be performing. This would be shown by if data from the US beats that from the UK or the other way around. Thus we aren't certain of the direction of the trend though the extended weakness of the dollar makes it more likely the GBPUSD would gain further.

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    Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs May 9- 13

    This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX



    EURUSD

    The American dollar started rather slowly on Monday trading. This was after figures coming out of China were below expectations. The dollar index which gives an indication of how well the dollar is performing against its major rivals, came out stronger coming up to 94.951.

    The American dollar had fallen down last week owing to data coming from US which indicated that the US economy had added few jobs for last month. The labour market for the month of April showed that the US economy had made an addition of 160,000 when analysts were expecting an addition of 200,000. Also from the US, wage growth data was compensation for the poor data on US jobs as average hourly earnings had risen up to 2.5% which is a high of three months. This drop in US jobs was the biggest we had seen in over six years such that the dollar finished last week not too strongly.


    This Monday, the EURUSD didn't show much movement despite the heavy movements with which the pair ended for last week. Traders this Monday were getting more interested in the dollar again as William Dudley who is the New York Federal Reserve President had said it was yet possible we will be having two rate hikes this 2016 even in face of data revealing that the US economy was not doing too well as regards job addition.


    The EURUSD held trades at 1.1407 this Monday. The pair struggled to move past the region of 1.1420. During the European trading session, the pair struggled to go up to 1.1615. Data coming from Germany showed us that the Germany Factory Orders had risen up by over 1.8% for the month of April while the EU Sentix Investor confidence index moved up to 6.1. The last reading we had from the EU Sentix Investor Confidence was 5.7. Yet impressive data coming from Germany still doesn't show a sustainable recovery of the global economy.

    Support levels: 1.1090, 1.1238, 1.1320
    Resistance levels:1.1550, 1.1698, 1.1780


    EURUSD support and resistance:

    EURUSD indicators:


    Looking into the future, hopes of two interest rates from the Federal Reserve this year are supporting the dollar for now, but this may not enough to support the long term recovery of the dollar. Hopes of referendum of Britain leaving europe has been coming down supporting the growth of the euro. Data so far from the US have not been generally impressive, so there is no push on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. Considering all this, it is more likely the euro would rise higher against the dollar.




    USDJPY


    The Japanese yen went down against the American dollar to its least level on Monday. This was as the Japanese Minister revealed the preparedness of Tokyo to readily intervene in the movement of the yen should the strong need arise. This declaration of intent from Japan sent the yen tumbling down agains the dollar. The USDJPY today went up by over 1% coming up to 108.22 yen.


    The yen for some time now since the start of the year has been recording gains against the dollar in face of stimulus measures that Japanese authorities have adopted so far. This is as the finance minster of Japan expressed fears that further increase of the yen would put the nation's fiscal policies at risk. Such fears from Taro Aso, the Japanese finance minister made more solid the possibility that Japan would intervene directly in the currency market.

    Last month, the US Treasury revealed that they would be watching out for currency manipulation from Japan. Furthermore the US Treasury had earlier made the call to remind Japan of the commitments it pledged to the G20 and G7 not to interfere with the forex situation of the yen.

    Thus on Monday here, we saw the USDJPY pair looking to move upwards, striving to break into the 109.00 handle. After staying for an extended period of time in the 108.75 region.

    Looking forward, the statement today from Taro Aso that Japan is well prepared to defy international pressure and possibly devalue the yen. So far this year,, the yen has gained over 1500 points. This is in sharp contradiction of the stimulus measures the Bank of Japan had been adopting to put the growth of the yen under check.

    Support levels: 104.05, 104.80, 105.94
    Resistance levels: 107.83, 108.58, 109.72


    USDJPY support and resistance:

    USDJPY indicators:

    Now traders are already coming to terms with the possibility that Federal Reserve would not be increasing interest rates as latest data from the US economy doesn't look to pressure Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve to touch interest rates. But then traders worry that Japan means business and could really intervene in the yen true to their words. So for now, such fears would keep the yen down against the dollar. So it is more likely the yen will drop lower against the dollar.




    GBPUSD

    The British pound on Monday was higher against many of its rival except the American dollar as trading began on Monday. The improvement in the US dollar was quite contrasting given that by last week, the dollar was ending last week with little strength.


    Before now, the sterling has increased against the dollar even moving up to 12 weeks high as little hopes were available on whether interest rates could be raised soonest. This was as US job data failed to match expectations at a time when very impressive US jobs data would make interest rate hike more likely.


    Official polls carried out on the referendum as to if the United Kingdom would be remaining in the EU were mixed. As there was little difference between the number of support for United Kingdom staying and the support for the United Kingdom leaving the EU. This is despite the intervention of President Barack Obama who advised Britain against leaving the EU as it could greatly afford bilateral trades with the US.


    Thus this monday, we had the GBPUSD falling down to 1.4373 which happens to be a low of about three weeks. This was in sharp contrast to last week where poor job from the US greatly affected the GBPUSD causing it go rise. On monday, the GBPUSD spent large period of time in the area of 1.4480, drifting steadily about 1.4405 which was not far from its opening price when trading began on Monday. This coupled with the scarcity of macroeconomic data from the UK had meant the GBPUSD didn't see great movement on a trading Monday for the pair.


    Data coming from the US had indicated growth in average wage. Such encouraging data draws attention to the possibility of still having more than one interest rate hike for this year. This possibility was also confirmed by William Dudley of the Federal Reserve who said it was not out of place if we still see two interest rate hike from the federal reserve for 2016.

    Support levels:1.4369, 1.4382, 1.4402
    Resistance levels: 1.4409, 1.4422, 1.4429


    GBPUSD support and resistance:

    GBPUSD indicators:


    This would raise hopes in the dollar for the meantime. The upcoming referendum on the EU membership for the United Kingdom is pressing the British pound down as traders worry what will be the fate of the pound when the UK eventually pulls out. Data on PMIs (purchasing managers index) for last month for the UK cast doubt on how well the UK economy was performing. Combining both factors, it is more likely that the GBP would still remain down against the pound. This makes the trend of the GBPUSD to be more likely bearish.

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    Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs May 16- 20

    This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX



    EURUSD

    The American dollar went down today which was more of a quiet trading day. The drop in the dollar was majorly because of data coming from the United States on manufacturing data. This cast concerns on investors concerning how well the US economy was performing. As such the EURUSD went up to about 1.1290. This would mark a climb up for the pair of about 0.12%.

    Data drawn from the index of manufacturing from the New York Federal Reserve indicated a drop in the posting for the month of May. This would notably be the first time this data had dropped since February. Official data which were released from the US today showed that shipments and new orders turned negative. The index went down to -9.5 for the month of May which marked a decline from the 9.6 it posted just last month.This was a big fall as general market anticipation was about 6.5. Thus the EURUSD pair went up to 1.1331 which is a climb up from 1.1322 it posted ahead of the data.

    This was a swift turn around as just on Friday last week, all pointed to a sustained recovery of the dollar with retail sales data even beating expectations impressively. The US commerce department had reported a increase of 1.3% for the month of April. This was accompanied with an encouraging consumer sentiment which had persuaded investors of the health of the US economy.

    Fast forward to today, the pair took abandoned its move up as the data coming from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showing a disappointing drop in general business conditions index. Thus drawing the dollar down, such that the euro rose against the dollar as the pair later went on today to trade at 1.1328 moving up by over 0.13%.

    Support levels: 1.1151, 1.1216, 1.1260
    Resistance levels: 1.1369, 1.1434, 1.1478


    EURUSD support and resistance:

    EURUSD indicators:

    Now looking into the future. We can see this surprising move up for the euro as temporary. This is because we yet to get major macroeconomic data from Europe for the week, added to the brief weakness of the dollar is the political uncertainty hovering over the US as elections draw near with investor particularly worried of a possible Trump victory. But then it is more likely the pair would reverse and the euro go down as the ECB (European Central Bank)meeting this week looks to hint towards additional easing policies which could cut down on the demand of the euro.


    USDJPY

    This Monday, the Japanese yen went down as Japan still maintained its intentions of possibly intervening in the market. This reminder of Japan's willingness to possibly clamp on the yen comes as Japan prepares to convene a G7 meeting. Such threats coming from Japan forced the yen down which was recoding early gains as trading began on Monday. The yen had earlier posted gains as data coming from China fell below expectations. Data coming from Chinese investment, retail sales as well as factory output had all dropped below forecasts. Consequently the USDJPY went up to 108.83 as the dollar rose against the pound by over 0.16%.

    Masatsugu Asakawa who occupies the position of Vice finance minister for international affairs had revealed that the G20 and G7 countries had held discussions pertaining to arresting unfavorable currency movements. That with these discussions and understanding among the major global economies, it would not be improper for Japan to intervene if the gains of the yen were too excessive. According to Asakawa, such arrangements gives Japan freedom from the binding US treasury reports which warned Japan against intervening in the foreign exchange market to cut down on the gains of the yen.

    Thus investors became more cautious with the yen. As it now appears that Japan would soonest be introducing further easing monetary policies so that Japan can still realize its inflation target. Such prospects were more solid when Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan said a good number of conditions were in place for Japan to bring on more easing measures. The dollar thus climbed up to 108.83 yen which is over a jump of 0.20% after it had gone as high as 109.57 on Friday.


    Support levels: 104.78, 105.91, 107.27
    Resistance levels: 109.76, 110.89, 112.25


    USDJPY support and resistance:

    USDJPY indicators:

    Looking into the future, for now the Japanese yen looks to be down for quite a while as renewed threats are coming from Japan indicating their readiness to intervene in the yen. But then unstable macroeconomic data from the US could further reduce the pressure on the federal reserve to reduce interest rates which would make the dollar less attractive. Thus major focus in course of the week will be on the GDP for the first quarter from Japan. Should the data come out weak, the yen is sure to spring up against the dollar in face of the threats of intervention.



    GBPUSD


    Focus on the GBPUSD has been about the upcoming EU referendum which would decide whether the United Kingdom stays in the EU or not. The GBPUSD rates didn't change much today as crucial economic forecasts from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) were not really positive. Such forecasts coming from the CBI showed that the growth in the UK economy was quite slow as investors were very skeptical of the possible outcome of the EU referendum on their investments. Thus today, we didn't see much trading activity from the pair as GBPUSD hovered around the region of 1.4373.

    Now going back to the crucial debate of the upcoming referendum which the pound greatly relies on for now, the move for the "Leave" campaign got more intense as Boris Johnson, who is notably identified as the head of the Leave campaign, stirred up a controversy. This was when as he made comparison between the goals of the EU and that of Hitler that just like Hitler, the EU is desperately trying to exploit member states to recreate needless "Golden Age".

    From the US, disappointing data coming from China has weakened the dollar. The dollar lost further strength as the index from New York Federal Reserve on manufacturing conditions had taken a dive down. The GBPUSD thus had gone up to above 1.4372 after it had earlier on traded at 1.4364.


    Support levels: 1.4197, 1.4269, 1.4311
    Resistance levels: 1.4425, 1.4497, 1.4539


    GBPUSD support and resistance:

    GBPUSD indicators:


    Looking into the future, Last week we saw the GBP/USD losing about 21 points owing fears of a possible UK exit from the EU. The percentage of supporters for Britain to stay in the EU is still higher as official polls put it in the range of 70%. This week will present very crucial data on the GBPUSD as or inflation data as well as jobs data. One major data to shape the GBPUSD this week is the Bank of Inflation Data. Investors will be critically looking to this data as inflation levels are for now really low. Should the Bank of England still be intent on keeping inflation levels low, the pound would go down noticeably against the dollar.

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