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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForx

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    EUR/USD: review and forecast

    Current trend
    In the end of last week, the pair significantly grew amid the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics in the US, where the Nonfarm Payrolls came out at only 38 thousands, while economists predicted 164 thousands. The data lowered the probability of an interest rate hike at June’s meeting of the Fed to 4% that lead to a drop in the US against all major currencies.
    Today attention needs to be paid to Fed’s Yellen speech that could determine Dollar’s dynamics for the nearest future.

    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart, the pair bounced off the lower border of the ascending channel and broke out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which indicates further growth potential.
    Support levels: 1.1300, 1.1130, 1.1050.
    Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1450, 1.1540.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1380 with targets at 1.1450, 1.1540 and stop-loss at 1.1350.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1300 with the target at 1.1220 and stop-loss at 1.1330.



    ---------- Post added 06-07-2016 at 04:14 PM ---------- Previous post was 06-06-2016 at 05:48 PM ----------

    EUR/USD: general analysis

    Current trend
    Last week, the EUR/USD pair grew amid weak US labour market data. In particular, the Nonfarm payrolls came in at 38 thousands. However, there still a good chance of the Federal Reserve tightening its monetary policy this summer that may strengthen the US Dollar.

    The Euro remains under pressure from a fall in German bond yields. Moreover, as long as there is still uncertainty around Brexit vote, the American currency may get support.

    Support and resistance
    RSI is below 70 suggesting the possibility of a price fall in the short term.
    The nearest support level is at 1.1322.
    The nearest resistance level is at 1.1379.

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1360 with the target at 1.1322 and stop-loss at 1.1380.



    ---------- Post added 06-08-2016 at 12:53 PM ---------- Previous post was 06-07-2016 at 04:14 PM ----------

    AUD/USD

    Current trend
    On Tuesday the AUD/USD pair strengthened to its new local high being supported by results of the RBA monetary policy meeting.

    RBA’s assessment of economic prospects was quite optimistic, and interest rates were left unchanged at 1.75%. The Regulator believes that the current monetary policy would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy. However, inflation in Australia is expected to remain quite low for some time, but some signs of improvement are seen here as well.

    The US Dollar, in its turn, is still under pressure from weak US labour market data and due to uncertainty regarding Fed’s tightening of monetary policy in the coming months.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a strong growth while the price range is widening actively. However, the price remains above the upper MA that indicates a downward correction possibility. MACD is growing and keeping a buy signal. Stochastic has reached its highs in the overbought zoned and turned horizontally.
    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

    Support levels: 0.7426, 0.7400, 0.7369 (7 June level), 0.7327, 0.7300, 0.7259, 0.7200 (near 2 June low), 0.7144 (24 May low).
    Resistance levels: 0.7463 (7 June high), 0.7500 (5 May level), 0.7533, 0.7567, 0.7593, 0.7618 (3 May level).

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the levels of 0.7463 and 0.7500 are broken out with targets at 0.7567, 0.7593, 0.7618 and stop-loss at 0.7426, 0.7400. Validity – 2-4 days.

    Short positions can be opened after the levels of 0.7426, 0.7400 are broken down with the target at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7463. Validity – 2-3 days.


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    EUR/USD: review and forecast

    Current trend
    Today the pair significantly fell after ECB President Draghi speech, in which he pointed out to long-term risks for the economy of the eurozone from a prolonged low pace of its growth. He also asserted that the regulator would do everything that is necessary in order to return inflation to its target levels.

    In addition, the pair is pressured by approaching referendum in the UK. The country’s exit from the EU could lead to a crisis in the eurozone.
    Today attention needs to be paid to data on the US labour market. Weak data might pressure the US Dollar.

    Support and resistance
    Technical indicators suggest a fall continuation. On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger bands turned horizontally. Stochastic is moving down.
    Support levels: 1.1340, 1.1280, 1.1225.
    Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1415, 1.1480.

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.1375 with targets at 1.1280, 1.1225 and stop-loss at 1.1400, and after the price consolidation below the level of 1.1330 with targets at 1.1280, 1.1225 and stop-loss at 1.1360.
    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1415 with targets at 1.1480, 1.1530 and stop-loss at 1.1400.

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    AUD/USD: Australian Dollar remains under pressure

    Current trend
    In the end of last week, the pair substantially declined amid some strengthening in the US Dollar, which was supported by strong data on the US labour market. The number of Initial Jobless Claims fell to 264 thousands, while economists predicted their growth to 270 thousands.

    At the same time, today the Australian Dollar was supported by strong data on the Industrial Production in China. In May, the index grew by 6.0% that was 0.1% better than expectations of experts.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is turning down and forming a sell signal. Stochastic is falling having left the overbought zone.

    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 0.7538 (local low), 0.7327, 0.7300, 0.7259, 0.7200 (2 June low), 0.7144 (24 May low), 0.7100 (psychologically important level).
    Resistance levels: 0.7400 (local high), 0.7426, 0.7463, 0.7500 (9 June high), 0.7533, 0.7567 (3 May high).

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7358 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7463, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7327. Validity – 2-3 days.

    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7327 with the target at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7375. Validity – 2-3 days.




    ---------- Post added 06-14-2016 at 01:43 PM ---------- Previous post was 06-13-2016 at 01:47 PM ----------

    GBP/USD: review and forecast

    Current trend
    On Monday the GBP/USD pair after a short upward correction resumed its downward trend. During the past week, the pair was falling but probably has not reached its lows yet and might continue moving further down. Today attention needs to be paid to statistics on key indices which have been released in the UK and data on retail sales due in the US.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed down. The price remains between the middle and the lower MAs. Further decline in the pair seems a likelier scenario.
    Support levels: 1.4140, 1.4070.
    Resistance levels: 1.4190, 1.4240, 1.4280, 1.4330, 1.4580.

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened below the current level with the target at 1.4070 and stop-loss at 1.4190.
    Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4280 with the target at 1.4330 and stop-loss at 1.4190.

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    EUR/USD: general review


    Current trend

    Today the pair is growing amid some weakening in the US Dollar that remains under pressure prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged at 0.5% due to the publication of very weak data on the US labour market. Just to remind, the Nonfarm Payrolls came out at 38 thousands that was significantly worse than the forecasts.

    At the same time, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.7%, which signals that in the medium-term inflation is likely to accelerate and that would lead to tightening in monetary policy.

    Support and resistance
    On the hourly chart, the pair is trading in a narrow sideways channel between the levels of 1.1237 and 1.1189.
    The RSI does not give a clear trading signal.
    The nearest support levels is at 1.1189.
    The nearest resistance level is at 1.1237.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1240 with the target at 1.1303 and stop-loss at 1.1189.

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    USD/CAD: general analysis

    Current trend
    The pair continues growing despite results of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The Regulator decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged and noted in the Monetary Policy Statement that only one more rate increase should be expected this year. The Canadian Dollar came under pressure, as Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz expressed concerns regarding the pace of economic growth in the country.
    It should be noted that oil prices have a strong impact on dynamics in the pair, and if a downward correction in the oil market continues, the pair might get support.

    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart, the price broke out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price range is widening that suggests the current trend is likely to continue. MACD is hovering around the zero line. Stochastic is in the overbought zone.
    The indicators recommend long positions.
    Support levels: 1.3002, 1.2978, 1.2951, 1.2909, 1.2871, 1.2834, 1.2786, 1.2730, 1.2692, 1.2663.
    Resistance levels: 1.3093, 1.3122, 1.3168, 1.3186, 1.3237.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3093 and stop-loss at 1.2951. Validity – 1-3 days.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3122 with the target at 1.3002 and stop-loss at 1.3168. Validity – 1-2 days.

    ---------- Post added 06-17-2016 at 12:07 PM ---------- Previous post was 06-16-2016 at 05:09 PM ----------

    USD/JPY: pair is falling

    Current trend
    The pair continues falling amid increasing anxiety on the market due to an upcoming referendum on UK’s membership in the EU, which is forcing investors to switch into safe-haven assets, such as the Yen. In addition, the Yen was supported by the decision by the Bank of Japan not to expand its stimulus program despite low inflation and weak growth of the world economy.

    The pair was also pressured by poor data from the US, where the Consumer Price Index in May grew by only 0.2% that was worse than expectations, while Initial Jobless Claims increased from 264 to 277 thousands, against forecasted 270 thousands.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is falling and giving a sell signal. Stochastic is trying to turn up near the border of the oversold zone.
    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 104.34 (local low), 104.00, 103.74, 103.54 (local low).
    Resistance levels: 104.82 (local high), 105.19, 105.54, 106.00, 106.39 (15 June high), 106.71, 107.25 (10 June high), 107.89 (7 June high), 108.22.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 104.82 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 106.00, 106.39, 106.71 and stop-loss at 104.34. Validity – 2-3 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 104.00 with the target at 103.00 and stop-loss at 104.50. Validity – 2-3 days.


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    EUR/USD: pair continues growing

    Current trend
    At the end of the previous week, the Euro was gaining positions against the US Dollar, and today the pair opened with a substantial gap up.

    Current dynamics is caused by weakness in the US Dollar coupled with growing demand for risky assets. In the UK, all Brexit referendum campaigns were suspended due to the murder of the Labour MP Jo Cox. As a result, new polling data showed a certain decline in chances of the UK’s exit from the EU.

    On Friday the American currency came under pressure from macroeconomic statistics. In particular, the number of housing starts fell from 1.167 to 1.164 million in May that was, however, better than the forecast of 1.150 million. The number of building permits grew from 1.130 to 1.138 million in May against an expected rise to 1.150 million.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a moderate growth while the price range is still narrowing quite actively. MACD has turned up and started growing with a buy signal. Stochastic has reached the border of the overbought zone that suggests a downward correction might develop in the short term.
    According to the indicators, long positions are preferable.

    Support levels: 1.1348, 1.1300, 1.1255, 1.1231, 1.1200, 1.1179, 1.1128 (16 June low), 1.1100 (near 30 May low), 1.1057, 1.1000 (10 March level), 1.0966.
    Resistance levels: 1.1400 (near 9 June highs), 1.1449, 1.1500 (4 May level), 1.1541, 1.1577, 1.1615 (3 may high).

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the level of 1.1400 is broken out (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.1500, 1.1541, 1.1577 and stop-loss at 1.1340. Validity – 1-2 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the price turns down near the level of 1.1400 with the target at 1.1200 and stop-loss at 1.1450. Validity – 2-3 days.


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    USD/JPY: продолжение снижения цены

    Current trend

    Demand for the Yen remains high amid difficulties and risks the global economy is facing. The American Dollar does not manage to show a strong growth being under pressure from mixed macroeconomic data, released in the US. As a result, the USD/JPY pair reached the key support level of 103.50.
    Today market participants are following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Congressional Testimony, and later this week, attention needs to be paid to US labour market statistics and data on the Durable Goods Orders.

    Support and resistance
    Despite of an upward correction today, the price is likely to remain within a descending channel and head towards the key support at 101.00, which is the lowest level since 2013. It also should be noted that the price might start moving sideways within the range of 101.00-107.50.

    According to technical indicators, the pair tends to continue its downward movement. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are growing. Bollinger Bands is directed up. The price remains above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines of Ichimoku clouds.

    Support levels: 104.15, 103.50, 102.65, 102.05, 101.00, 100.30, 100.00, 99.70.
    Resistance levels: 105.05, 105.90, 107.00, 107.50, 108.75, 109.30.

    Trading tips
    It is recommended to build up on your short position from the levels of 105.05, 107.00 with the target at 101.00 and stop-loss at 107.90.

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    USD/CAD: flat trades in the pair

    Current trend
    The USD has significantly grown against the CAD at the closing session on Tuesday, after two-day decline, which led the price back to the local lows of June. Minor correction was caused by the domination of cautious sentiments in the market. Prior to the referendum on the UK’s membership in the EU, investors do not rush to open new positions, even despite some encouraging signals.
    On Tuesday, the head of the US Fed, Mrs. Janet Yellen gave a speech before the Banking Committee in the Senate. As before, she has mentioned that the world economy is facing significant risks; China is facing economic difficulties and interest rate will depend on the economic situation. As long as economic situation remains ambiguous, the prospects of the interest rate increase in the USA in July are vague.

    Levels of support and resistance

    Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2829 (local highs of 20 June), 1.2861, 1.2900, 1.2962, 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.3037, 1.3100, 1.3143 (highs of 2 June), 1.3187 (highs of 24 May) and 1.3218.
    Support levels: 1.2762 (local lows of 21 June), 1.2700, 1.2654 (lows of 8 June), 1.2600 (lows of 3 May).
    On the daily chart the indicator “Bollinger bands” is declining. Price range is narrowing, indicating mixed movement in the market in the past few days. MACD indicator is declining, giving a weak sell signal. If the “bearish” trend continues, it is recommended to keep existing short positions. Stochastic Oscillator is going down too. However, the line of the indicator has almost reached the lowest in the oversold zone, which reduces chances of continuation of the downtrend in the short-term. It is advisable to wait until the indicator leaves oversold zone.

    Индикатор “Полосы Боллинджера” на дневном графике демонстрирует снижение. Ценовой диапазон сужается, отражая разнонаправленный характер торгов, наблюдаемых в последние несколько дней. *Индикатор MACD снижается, сохраняя слабый сигнал на продажу. При сохранении текущего «медвежьего» сигнала рекомендуется удерживать имеющиеся короткие позиции. Осциллятор “Стохастик” сохраняет нисходящую направленность. Вместе с тем, линия индикатора уже практически достигла минимальных значений в области перепродаж, что существенно ограничивает перспективы развития нисходящего тренда в краткосрочной и перспективе. Следует дождаться выхода индикатора из области перепродаж.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened if the price goes up above the level of 1.2800 and rebounds from this level as a support level. Take profit can be placed at the levels of 1.2900 1.2962 or 1.3000. Stop-loss - 1.2762. Forecast is valid for 2-3 days.
    As an alternative scenario the “bearish” trend can resume after breakdown of the level of 1.2762. In this case, it is advisable to open short positions with the target of 1.2600 and stop-loss of 1.2800. Forecast is valid for 2-3 days.


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    ---------- Post added at 10:36 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:33 PM ----------

    Today the pair strengthened amid mixed data from Japan. The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for October fell by 0.6% against the previous month, while was forecasted a fall of 0.4%, and by 3.8% against the previous year. At the same time, Machinery Orders for September grew by 7.5%, against forecasted 3.3%.
    The pair is supported by the Bank of Japan decision to continue with easy monetary policy with the tendency of its further easing, and strong labour market data that came out last Friday in the US that significantly increased the chances of interest rates hike in the US in December.
    Today attention needs to be pair to the ECB President Draghi speech, Fed’s Yellen speech and speeches by few other members of the Fed that could increase volatility on the market.

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  12. #90
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    XAG/USD: Technical analysis

    XAG/USD, D1

    On the daily chart the pair is traded near the upper band of the Bollinger indicator. The indicator is moving up and the price range is expanding. The price is above the moving average line of EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144. MACD histogram is in the positive area, its volumes are slightly decreasing. Stochastic is in the central area, at the border with the oversold area, and its lines are directed downwards.

    XAG/USD, H4

    On 4-hour chart the pair is traded in the lower band of the Bollinger indicator; the indicator is moving sideways, price range has narrowed. Moving average line EMA50 is above the price level, while EMA100 and EMA144 are below the price level. MACD histogram is entered to the negative zone and volumes are decreasing. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, its lines are directed upwards.

    Key levels

    Support levels: 16.35 (two-week lows), 16.92 ( EMA50), 17.09 (local lows).
    Resistance levels: 17.60 (local highs), 17.84 (last month highs), 18.02 (upper limit of the Bollinger bands).

    Trading tips

    It is advisable to open short positions from the level of 17.09 with the targets of 16.69, 16.48 and stop-loss at 17.25. Long positions can be opened from the level of 17.52 with the targets of 17.84, 18.16 and stop-loss at 17.09. Forecast is valid for 3-5 days.


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