On the daily chart, the instrument is trading just above the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is trying to turn down having broken out its December resistance. The Composite is testing its December resistance as well.
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains on the level with the moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is showing Bullish dynamics. The Composite is about to test its longer MA.
There is a chance the upward correction is going to continue.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 16.71 with targets at 17.07, 17.20 and stop-loss at 16.55. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 16.15 with the target at 15.67 and stop-loss at 16.33. Validity – 2-3 days.
---------- Post added 01-10-2017 at 12:11 PM ---------- Previous post was 01-09-2017 at 01:54 PM ----------
Brent: oil prices fell
The price of Brent crude oil fell at the beginning of the week amid growing concerns that the OPEC countries are going to carry out their agreement to cut the production.
According to the experts, in the first days of January the Iraqi exports going through the port of Basra were the highest in the last 4 years. In addition, oil reserves in Iran’s floating storages significantly fell. In September 2016, their levels halved that indicates an increase in the country’s exports activities.
Oil prices were also pressured by data on the number of oilrigs in the US. For the week ending on 30 December, their number rose by 4 to 529 rigs, reaching the highest level since December 2015. The number of rigs in the US has been growing for the 10th consecutive week.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart turned sideways while the price range remains unchanged. MACD is falling and giving a quite strong sell signal. Stochastic is falling as well and approaching the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 55.07 (local low), 54.37, 53.91 (22 December low), 53.50, 52.68 (8 December low), 51.85.
Resistance levels: 55.77 (20 December high), 56.50, 57.10 (12 December high), 57.52 (6 January high), 58.10, 58.68 (15 July 2015 high), 59.51.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 55.77 with targets at 57.10, 57.52 and stop-loss at 54.00. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 55.00 with targets at 53.50, 52.68 and stop-loss at 55.80. Validity – 2-3 days.
During the trading session on Tuesday the pair was lowering. The USA stock markets show the weakness, which affects the USD negatively. The growth of the Wholesale Inventories index by 1% has also pressured it: the growth of the index reflects the showering of the economical growth and can affect the GDP greatly. The JOLTS Job Openings is 5.522 million against the expected 5.555 million, which doesn’t support the USD also. The Japan Composite Index of Leading Indicators was growing to 102.7 points, exceeding the expectations by 0.1 points, which is good for the economy in the short term.
Donald Trump’s press conference will be held today in the USA. The main issues are expected to concern the plans of increasing the infrastructure investment and the tax decreasing plans. There can be come volatility peaks in the market during the conference.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart the pair was corrected to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping the signal to open short positions.
Support levels: 105.50, 115.20, 104.90.
Resistance levels: 116.300, 117.00, 117.50, 118.20.
Open long positions from the level of 116.40 with the target at 117.00, 117.50. Stop loss is at 116.00.
Open short positions from the level of 115.50 with the target at 114.90. Stop loss is at 115.80.
Implementation period: 1-3 days.
---------- Post added 01-12-2017 at 12:24 PM ---------- Previous post was 01-11-2017 at 02:45 PM ----------
XAU/USD: technical analysis
On the daily chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that turned horizontal. The RSI is approaching the border of the overbought zone. The Composite starts forming a divergence with the price and RSI suggesting a downward reverse possibility.
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI has been forming a Bearish divergence just below the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is about to retest its strong resistance.
There is chance of the downward reverse in the price.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1207.46 with targets at 1190.65, 1170.55 and stop-loss at 1215.03. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1215.03 with the target at 1244.55 and stop-loss at 1205.13. Validity – 3-5 days.
On the 4-hour chart the price has tested the level of 1.0070. The breakout here is possible, as the Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards. Also, the Stochastic has reversed in the same direction, and in this case the significant lowering of the price is possible. In case of the rebound from the level of 1.0070 the correction is possible to the level of 1.0125 (correction cluster 23.6% in the short and middle term) and further to 1.0160 (correction 38.2%) and 1.0190 (correction 50.0%, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands for D1).
On the daily chart there is a downward breakout of the level 1.0120 (correction 23.6%) and the upward fan line 38.2%, and now is reaching the level of 1.0010 (correction 38.2%) and further across the 50.0% fan line to the level of 0.9920 (correction 50.0%) into the area of the crossing with the 61.8% fan line or the curve 38.2%. If the price will reverse at the level of 1.0010 or in case of the upward breakout of the level of 1.0120 the growth is possible to reappear. In this case the correction can continue to the level of 1.0200 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands) and 1.0300 (correction 0.0%).
Sell the pair below the level of 1.0070 with the target at 1.0010, 0.9920 and stop loss at 1.0110.
Buy the pair above the level of 1.0120 or in case of the reversal at 1.0000 with the target at 1.0200 and 1.0300. Stop loss is at 1.0080 and 0.9970 correspondingly.
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is showing Bearish dynamics having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is representing similar pattern.
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just above the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are turning horizontally. The RSI is testing its last week support. The Composite is approaching its support level as well.
The price is consolidating above a strong support level at 11484.2. Its breakdown could lead to a downward correction continuation, however, the main trend remains ascending.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 11484.2 with the target at 11336.1 and stop-loss at 11524.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 11663.1 with the target at 11792.3 and stop-loss at 11638.5. Validity – 3-5 days.
On the 4-hour chart, the price fell below the level of 0.8718 (23.6% correction) and after a breakdown of the 38.2% fan line (which seems likely as Stochastic is directed down), the fall could continue towards 0.8650 (38.2% corrections for the medium-term and short-term trends) and 0.8590 (50% correction). However, the ascending fan could be an additional obstacle to the price, so in the region of 0.8650 the price might reverse and start growing towards its January highs.
On the daily chart, the price is heading towards the level of 0.8650 (38.2% correction), a breakdown of which would lead to a fall continuation towards 0.8580 (lower line of Bollinger Bands), 0.8545 (23.6% correction). However, there is also a chance of a price reverse and growth towards the levels of 0.8742 (50% correction) and 0.8830 (61.8% correction), but this scenario seems unlikely (Stochastic turned down).
Sell the pair below the level of 0.8650 with targets at 0.8580, 0.8545 and stop-loss at 0.8690.
Buy the pair after the price rebound from the level of 0.8650 with targets at 0.8742, 0.8830 and stop-loss at 0.8620.
---------- Post added 01-18-2017 at 03:47 PM ---------- Previous post was 01-17-2017 at 05:43 PM ----------
USD/JPY: general analysis
During the yesterday trading session the USD continued to fall against all the main currencies, including Yen. Investors are fixing the profit on the dollar assets. After the great growth due to the positive expectation of the new President policy the traders want to see the confirmation of the Trump’s intentions to reform the economy. Yesterday the USA FRS members’ commentaries supported the USD and helped it not to fall further. The FRS members said that the USA economy has almost reached the target level of the inflation and now is almost involved. Yesterday Trump’s commentaries of the “too strong” dollar and its bad affection on the USA economy pressed the USD. The USD/JPY pair has decreased to the level of 112.56, but today on the opening session the price was corrected upwards. Today the USA Consumer Price Index (15:30 GMT+2), the Industrial Production data (16:15 GMT+2), Fed's Beige Book review (21:00 GMT+2) and Janet Yellen Speech (22:00 GMT+2) are worth traders attention.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 113.00, 112.56, 112.00.
Resistance levels: 113.50, 114.00, 114.47.
On the 4-hour chart Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards, reflecting the development of the downward trend. Still the correction into the area of the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (113.86) is possible. The reversal from the level of 113.86 and the downward movement is possible.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are decreasing, reflecting the development of the correction. In case of the consolidation of the price above the level of 114.00 the formation of the upward trend is possible.
Sell the pair after the price is set below the level of 113.00 with the target at 112.56, 112.00 and stop loss at 113.35.
Open the pair after the price is set above the level of 114.00 with the target at 114.47, 115.00 and stop loss at 113.65.
On Wednesday, the pair was corrected from the level of 1.2400 to the 1.2250 level. Today, the pair once again resumed its growth, which can reach the levels of 1.2380 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%) and 1.2470 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%). However, in the long term position of the pound is evaluated negatively. The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, in an interview with BBC said that the British economy will be under further pressure, because the new free trade agreement with the EU, which the UK intends to achieve, in any case, would give the country fewer trade opportunities than if it remained a member of the European Union. Goldman Sachs experts believe that the process of negotiations on a new agreement can take a long time and may take more time than the "Brexit" itself.
Support and resistance levels
The pair has a potential to grow up to the levels of 1.2380 and 1.2470, as confirmed by the Stochastics, turning upwards. However, long-term negative factors could lead to a reversal of the price at the level of 1.2380, then to the breakdown of the level of 1.2290 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and to a further decrease to the levels of 1.2180 (23.6% correction) and 1.2120.
Support levels: 1.2290, 1.2180, 1.2120.
Resistance levels: 1.2380, 1.2470.
In this situation, the short-term long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2340 with the targets at 1.2380 and 1.2470. Stop loss orders can be set in the area of 1.2310. Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2380 or in case of breakdown of the level of 1.2290 with the targets at 1.2180, 1.2120 and stop losses at 1.2420, 1.2330, respectively.
EUR/USD: the market is waiting for Trump’s inauguration
Yesterday the Head of the ECB Mario Draghi’s speech affected the market, and the price has tested the level of 1.0600, today it’s the turn of America to do the same. The Head of the FRS Janet Yellen had a conference in the Stanford University She said that the correction of the monetary policy should be ****ual, and that some of her questions connected to the election of Donald Trump are still unclear. Such commentaries didn’t satisfy the traders, and the price grew to 1.6290. Now the investors are waiting for the Donald Trump’s inauguration and his speech, which can cause a significant volatility in the market.
Support and resistance
The price is near the upper border of the downward trend and can lower to the level of 1.0600 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%), which is confirmed by the downward reversal of the Stochastic The key level is 1.0600, the breakout and the consolidation of the price below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator (the area of 1.0550 in the current moment) will let the price to lower to the levels of 1.0450 and 1.0370. But the scenario of a reversal from the level of 1.0600-1.0550 is still possible. In this case the price will grow to 1.0750 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and 1.0865 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%).
Support levels: 1.0600, 1.0550, 1.0450, 1.0370.
Resistance levels: 1.0750, 1.0865.
Open short positions if the price is set below 1.0600 and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator with the target at 1.0450, 1.0370 and stop loss at 1.0610. Open long positions in case of a rebound from the levels of 1.0650 or 1.0550 with the target at 1.0750, 1.0865 and stop loss at 1.0570 and 1.0510 correspondingly.
On the daily chart, the pair is growing along the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is trying to turn down near the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is about to retest its longer MA showing Bearish dynamics.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI turned down having failed its longer MA. The Composite is about to test its longer MA from above.
The pair is testing its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near the lower border of the previous ascending channel. There is a chance of a downward rebound.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7135, 0.7110, 0.7056 and stop-loss at 0.7232. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7242 with targets at 0.7311, 0.7336 and stop-loss at 0.7212. Validity – 3-5 days.
The euro against the dollar succeeded in achieving a rush upward, as expected, approaching greatly awaited key target at 1.2600, is now up temporarily due to the negativity on Stochastic.
We expect to be strong resistance at this level, but in general, Snrjeh continuation of the bullish tilt and required the breach of 1.2600 and stability with daily closing above it.
The expected rise depends on the sub-channel current bullish alongside stability above SMA 50, and the remaining chances List stability above 1.2355
Expected trading range for today is between: the support 1.2400 and resistance
From the opening of the morning trading session the oil prices are growing against yesterday lowering to the level of 54.96. The weakening dollar supports the oil price. The lowering of the dollar is due to the recent speech of the President of the USA, when he accented on the protectionist measures towards the USA economy, while investors were waiting for more specific plans of USA fiscal reformation. The price are also supported by the oil production limitation by OPEC and non-OPEC countries. On the OPEC members meeting on January, 22, in Vienna, it was reported that the world oil production level has lowered by 1.7 million barrels per day. As a result the UKBrent price is reaching the level of 56.14. Today the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock index due at 23:30 (GMT+2) in the USA is worth traders attention.
Support and resistance levels
Support levels: 55.73, 54.96, 54.06.
Resistance levels: 56.14, 57.15, 58.20.
On the 4-hour chart the technical indicators reflects the possibility of growth. The Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are rising, giving a buy signal.
In the current situation open long positions after the breakdown and consolidation of the price above the level of 56.14 with the target at 57.15 and stop loss at 55.80.
If the price is set below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at the level of 55.25, the downward trend can develop. *In that scenario open short positions with the targets at 54.96, 54.08 and stop loss at 55.60.
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