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The American Dollar continues consolidating against the Yen after a significant growth in November and the beginning of December. The Dollar fell due to profit fixation and the pair continues moving within the range of 80 points amid the lack of important fundamental news from the US or Japan. However, the Yen was slightly supported by yesterday’s decision on interest rates. The Bank of Japan left the rate unchanged, and in commentaries expressed some optimism noting a ****ual economic recovery.
Today extra attention needs to be paid to macroeconomic statistics from the US that could determine further pair’s dynamics. Data on the GDP, labour market and Durable Goods Orders is due.
Support and resistance
In the short-term, the price might fall to the lower border of the ascending channel at the level of 117.15 from where its growth will resume.
Technical indicators suggest a growth continuation. Bollinger bands are directed up while the upper line is at the level of 119.00, indicating the next possible target. MACD histogram is about to resume its growth in the positive zone.
Support levels: 117.15, 116.50, 115.50, 114.80, 114.00, 113.15, 112.30.
Resistance levels: 118.00, 118.25, 118.65, 119.00, 119.35, 120.05.
Long positions can be opened from current levels and from the level of 117.15 with targets at 119.00, 120.05 and stop-loss at 116.80.
---------- Post added 12-23-2016 at 12:28 PM ---------- Previous post was 12-22-2016 at 05:41 PM ----------
NZD/USD: pair shows mixed trade
Yesterday the pair showed choppy trade and closed near its opening level amid the publication of a large number of macroeconomic statistics.
In the third quarter of the year, the GDP in New Zealand grew by 1.1% q/q that was a 0.2% better than forecasts of economists. On a year-to-year basis, however, the index came out worse than forecasts having increased by only 3.5%, against expectations of 3.7%.
The Annualized GDP in the US in the third quarter showed 3.5% growth that exceeded expectations of economists who anticipated only a 3.3% increase. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation rose by 0.5%, against a forecasted 0.2%.
Data on Personal Income and Spending, in its turn, disappointed. In November, personal income showed no change against the previous month while economists predicted an increase of 0.3%. Personal spending rose by 0.2% that was a 0.1% worse than expectations.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is widening. The price, however, only now returns inside the range. MACD is turning up but keeping its previous sell signal. Stochastic is trying to turn up in the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.6900 (local low), 0.6882 (20 December low), 0.6847 (3 June low), 0.6806.
Resistance levels: 0.6930 (16 December low), 0.6947 (21 December high), 0.6971, 0.7000 (psychologically important level), 0.7034, 0.7068 (5 December low), 0.7085, 0.7101.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.6930 with targets at 0.7000, 0.7034, 0.7068 and stop-loss at 0.6900. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.6900 with the target at 0.6806 and stop-loss at 0.6930. Validity – 2-3 days.
During the trading sessions in the previous week the pound was lowering against the US dollar, renewing the local minimum from November, 2. Despite of the decreasing traders’ activity due to the upcoming New Year and Christmas holydays, the pound couldn’t became corrected, being under the pressure of new concerns due to the upcoming Brexit.
In addition rather controversial macroeconomical statistics from the UK were published on Friday, 23. The third quarter GDP index has grown by 0.6% QoQ, which is better than the predicted value by 0.1%. The YoY GDP has grown by 2.2%, which is worse than predicted value by 0.1%. The Business Investments indicator has grown only by 0.4% QoQ, while the experts predicted the growth by 0.9% QoQ. The YoY volume of the investments has decreased by 2.2% YoY against -1.6% in the previous quarter. The Index of Services has grown by 1.0% in October against +0.8% in September, while analysts were expecting the growth by 0.9% QoQ. The Current Account data are better than expected also. The third quarter deficit is 25.490 billion pounds, increased from the level of 22,080 billion, while the analysts expected the deficit to grow to the level of 27,450 billion pounds.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.2312 (minimum on December, 20), 1.2354, 1.2385 (minimum on November, 28), 1.2419, 1.2468, 1.2512 (maximum on November, 22), 1.2548, 1.2584 (the level of December, 14) and 1.2619.
Support levels: 1.2272 (testing during the morning session on December, 26), 1.2228 (current minimum from December, 23), 1.2171 and 1.2132 (the October, 28 level).
On the daily chart the Bollinger Bands indicator is lowering. The price range is slightly widening, giving to the “bears” the way to new local minima. However the indicator shows the possibility of the appearance of the correctional growth and the return of the price to the middle line area.
The MACD is lowering, keeping a sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to keep current shorts positions, but not to open new “bearish” ones.
The Stochastic is in the oversold area, is trying to reverse upwards, which can show the potential formation of the correctional growth in short or very short terms.
Open long positions after the breakout of the level of 1.2312, if the technical indicators don’t contradict the “bullish” trend. Take profit is at 1.2419 or 1.2468. Stop loss is at 1.2210 and 1.2200. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
In case of the breakout of the level of 1.2228 downwards, it’s better to open short positions with the targets at 1.2132 and 1.2100. Stop loss is at 1.2280. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
bhai gbpusd aaj ki tarikh yani 27 december 2016 ko 1.2288 k irdgird ghom raha hai or yon nazar aa raha hai jese yeh pair phir se 1.2500 se oper jaye ga jb tak artical 50 pe amal nahi hota tab yeh pair ooper janey k chances buht ziada hai
In the beginning of the week the US dollar is growing against the Swiss franc, renewing a local maximum on December, 21. The market activity is still low due to the Ney Year and Christmas holydays. The traders prefer not to buy a risky currency, but consolidate the profit while trading stable ones.
On Monday, 26, there were no significant macroeconomical statistics published, but on Tuesday there will be a lot of data from USA. The investors are interested in Business Activity and Consumer Confidence indices. Also the traders wait for the Redbook index and October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. The nearest publications in Switzerland are due at Wednesday, December, 28, as the November UBS Consumption Indicator will be published. The data is based on 5 economic indicators of consumption: car sales, consumer confidence, retail sales, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays, credit card transactions volumes.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.0290 (maximum on December, 21), 1.0318 (maximum on December, 20) и 1.0342 — maximum on December, 15.
Support levels: 1.0271 (the nearest level), 1.0239 (minimum on December, 16), 1.0212 (maximum on December, 9), 1.0190, 1.0166, 1.0149 (the level of December, 4), 1.0123 and 1.0100.
On the daily chart Bollinger Bands indicator is growing. The price range is narrowing, reflecting recent controversial trade dynamics. Stick to the channel trade strategy.
The MACD is lowering, keeping the weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to close some of the short positions and wait for more trading signals.
The Stochastic reversed again in the middle of its working area. The indicator doesn’t contradict with the further “bullish” development in short or very short term.
Open long positions after the breakout of 1.0290, if the technical indicators don’t contradict with the «bullish» trend. Take profit is at 1.0342, 1.0350 or 1.0375. Stop loss is at 1.0250. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
In case of reversal near the level 1.0290 it’s better to open correction short positions with the nearest target at 1.0200 or 1.0190. Stop loss is at 1.0320 or 1.0330. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
---------- Post added 12-28-2016 at 03:31 PM ---------- Previous post was 12-27-2016 at 03:41 PM ----------
XAG/USD: general analysis
Yesterday the pair was growing against the “thin” market and no key macroeconomical news. It couldn’t consolidate above the strong resistance level of 16.00, and the silver began to decrease again.
Today the publication of the Pending Home Sales index can affect the market. The growth of the index above 0.5% will pressure the pair.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart the pair is trading in the narrow range of 15.85-16.05. The Bollinger Bands indicator has corrected downwards, as the price range has widened significantly, reflecting the high volatility of the continuing of the current trend. The MACD is in the negative zone, the volumes of the histogram are decreasing, keeping a sell signal. The Stochastic has reversed upwards near the border of the oversold area.
According to the indicators, short positions are more preferable.
Support levels: 15.82, 15.65, 15.47.
Resistance levels: 16.16, 16.41, 16.66, 16.94, 17.20.
Open short positions at the current price with the target at 15.45. Stop loss is at 16.05. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Open long positions at 16.15 with the target at 16.55. Stop loss is at 15.95. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
The Brent oil prices grew to the level of year maxima 57.00 on Wednesday, and it is trading there now. The growth is caused to the oil production countries confirmed their agreement on the oil production limitation. The Oil Ministry of Iraq confirmed that the country is ready to limit the oil production by 200-210K barrel in January. The Venezuela Oil Ministry confirmed the limitation by 95K barrel per day. The EIA Crude Oil Stocks change index is worth attention today. It is expected to decrease by 2060 million barrel. In this case the price can renew the year maxima and grow to the level of 57.70, 58.50. Otherwise the retreat to the level of 55.90 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and an upward fan line of Fibonacci 61.8%).
Open long positions when the price has consolidated above the level of 57.00 with the target at 57.70 and 58.50. Stop loss is at 56.70. Open short positions below the level of 57.00 with the target at 55.90, 55.00 and stop loss at 57.40.
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USD/JPY: the dollar is lowering in the end of the week
During the trading session on Thursday, December, 29, the USD was lowering against the yen, reaching the new local minimum from the 14 of December and then renewed it during the morning session on the 30 of December. The “bearish” dynamics is due to the correctional moods before the New Year holydays. The investors usually close the most of positions in this time of the year, in addition, the dollar is greatly overbought against the yen as a result of the November growth. The USD index has reached the highest level from the 2002 year.
Also, the macroeconomical data in USA has affected the trading sessions on Thursday. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims index has lowered from 275K to 265K, which is by 1K worth than expected value. On the contrary, the Continuing Jobless Claims index has grown from 2.039 million to 2.102 million, while the analysts expected the lowering to 2.030 million.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 116.54 (actively testing during the morning session 30 December), 117.00, 117.58, 118.00, 118.24 (maximum on December, 20), 118.66 (maximum on December, 15) and 119.06 (the level of the February, 3, 2016).
Support levels: 116.04 (current local minimum, renewed during the morning session on December, 30), 115.61, 115.00 (the level on December, 14), 114.40 (maximum on December, 7), 114.00, 113.50, 113.00 (the level on December, 5) and 112.60.
On the daily chart the Bollinger Bands indicator is growing. The price range is rapidly narrowing, reflecting the appearance of the correctional dynamics. Stick to the channel trade strategy until the situation is clear.
The MACD is lowering, keeping rather strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Keep the short positions in the short term and do not open new positions.
The Stochastic has reached the overbought area, was corrected and reversed sideways. It’s better to wait for the clear signal.
Open long positions after the breakout of 117.00. Take profit is at 118.24 or 118.66-119.06. Stop loss is at 116.50-116.35. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
The alternative scenario is the returning of the strong “bearish” trend and a downward breakout of the level of 116.04. In this case the “bearish” targets are at 114.40-114.00. Stop loss is at 116.54. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
During the second half of 2016 the price of gold continued to steadily decline due to a stronger US dollar. Currently, however, the pair has already finished the movements triggered by Brexit and raised interest rates of the Fed. At the moment, there is concern on the market about the presidency of Donald Trump. In the near future he will have to convince the US Congress to allocate a large sum for the implementation of economic programs, and his new cabinet still has to go through the approval process in the Senate hearings. In this situation, these processes are likely to be long and exhausting, which may have a prolonged negative impact on the US currency, and strengthen the positions of precious metals.
The current week is replete with important economic releases from the US. Today in the afternoon in the United States data on the index of ****ual acceleration of inflation and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the ISM will be published. Projected growth of both indices will reflect the positive sentiment in the business environment and will contribute to the strengthening of the dollar.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart the pair is trading around strong support level of 1148.50. The indicator "Bollinger Bands" is directed downwards, whereas the price range is narrowing, which indicates the probability of a change of the current trend. Histogram of MACD is in the negative zone, its volumes are growing, keeping a weak buy signal. Stochastic has turned down at the border of the overbought area.
Support levels: 1118.88, 1128.28, 1141.69, 1146.39.
Resistance levels: 1159.14, 1172.55, 1180.60, 1188.65.
Short positions should be opened at the level of 1146.00 with the target at 1132.00 and a stop loss at the level of 1153.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Long positions can be set at the level of 1151.70 with Take Profit at 1166.50 and a stop loss order at the level of 1143.50. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
---------- Post added 01-04-2017 at 12:53 PM ---------- Previous post was 01-03-2017 at 02:46 PM ----------
UKBrent: general review
During yesterday’s trading session, after it has tested the level of 58.44, the price of Brent crude oil fell by almost $3 per barrel, and at its lowest point towards the end of the session was trading near the level of 55.40. Most likely, such a serious decline was caused by a strengthening in the US Dollar amid the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics in the US. Market participants were selling oil futures that are expressed in Dollars.
Today markets are waiting for the publication of the Weekly Crude Oil Stock by the American Petroleum Institute, due at 11:30 pm (GMT+2).
Support and resistance
The instrument is correcting after the sharp fall. The upward correction could continue to the middle MA of Bollinger Bands (56.77).
Support levels: 55.79, 54.74, 53.55.
Resistance levels: 56.49, 57.29, 58.44.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 56.77 with targets at 57.29, 58.44 and stop-loss at 56.40.
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 55.37 with targets at 54.74, 53.55 and stop-loss at 55.60.
The pair sharply fell yesterday after the release of the FOMC Minutes from the last meeting of the regulator in December. The Minutes showed that the officials are concerned with falling unemployment in the US that in the near future might result in higher inflation. However, it was noted that due to uncertainties regarding Donald Trump’s fiscal policy plans, the pace of further monetary policy tightening is hard to forecast. At present, the Fed is predicting 3 rate hikes in 2017.
Additionally, the Dollar remains under pressure prior to the publication of data on the US labour market, due tomorrow. Strong reading on the Nonfarm Payrolls could provide support to the American currency.
Support and resistance
The pair turned down having failed its 38.2% Fibonacci fan line. Both the RSI and Composite are showing Bearish patterns suggesting the fall could continue.
Support levels: 115.95 (local lows), 114.89 (March 2016 highs), 114.42 (November 2016 highs).
Resistance levels: 118.60 (local highs), 120.29 (July 2015 lows), 121.33 (January 2016 highs).
Short positions can be opened from the level of 115.95 with targets at 114.89, 114.42 and stop-loss at 116.30.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 118.60 with targets at 120.29, 121.33 and stop-loss at 118.17.
---------- Post added 01-06-2017 at 12:49 PM ---------- Previous post was 01-05-2017 at 01:42 PM ----------
GBP/USD: general review
The pair significantly grew yesterday amid a substantial weakening in the US Dollar that remains under pressure after the publication of the FOMC Minutes in the middle of the week. The Minutes, despite been quite hawkish, showed that further path of monetary policy tightening in the US is uncertain as the effect to the economy of the promised fiscal stimulus by Donald Trump is unknown yet. The market seems to agree with the regulator about high level of uncertainty, as the Dollar continues falling despite strong statistics that keep coming out in the US.
Additional support to the Pound came from strong data on the Markit Services PMI. In December, the index rose from 55.2 to 56.2 points, well above forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned down having failed its long-term SMA200, a breakout of which could lead to a growth continuation. However, the Composite has formed a divergence with the RSI and price, suggesting a decline possibility.
Support levels: 1.2322 (local lows), 1.2297 (November 2016 lows), 1.2206 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 1.2433 (local highs), 1.2505 (local highs), 1.2542 (local highs).
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.2443 with targets at 1.2505, 1.2542 and stop-loss at 1.2412. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2297 with the target at 1.2206 and stop-loss at 1.2322. Validity – 1-2 days.
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