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    Forex Analysis by LiteForx

    With kind permission of the Administration we'll be glad to share our view of the Forex market with everybody.

    ---------- Post added at 02:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:11 PM ----------

    GBP/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair managed to strengthen despite mixed labour market statistics, released in the UK.
    According to the Office for National Statistics, the Unemployment Rate for July to September declined from 5.4% to 5.3%, while analysts expected the indicator to remain unchanged at 5.4%. At the same time, Average Earnings grew by only 2.5% that is below the forecast of 2.7% and the previous level of 2.8%.
    In his speech at the Open Forum 2015, Bank of England governor Mark Carney emphasized the important role of the UK as the "pre-eminent global financial centre". 40% of global foreign exchange trading, half of all trades in OTC interest rate derivatives and two-thirds of trading in international bonds go through London.

    Support and resistance

    The price is trading close to the key resistance level of 1.5250. This level would be broken out only if the US dollar comes under after the Fed representatives' speeches, due today.
    Support levels: 1.5171 (MA40).
    Resistance level: 1.5250 (28 and 29 October lows).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1.5171 and stop-loss at 1.5250.


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    USD/JPY: BoJ Governor satisfied with GDP statistics

    Current trend

    Yesterday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged. BoJ Governor considers that a decline in the third-quarter GDP was insignificant. However, as many economists suggest, the Regulator may be back to discussion on easing policy at its next meeting, due on 28-29 January.
    At the same time, market participant are getting ready for a hike in the US interest rates. On Thursday, US stock indices declined, while Fed funds futures show a 72% chance of a rate increase in December against a 58% likelihood two weeks ago.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading in an upward channel with the upper border at the level of 129.00.
    OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions, but on the weekly chart, they are giving buy signals.
    The breakdown of 122.50 allows the pair to decline to the support levels of 122.00, 121.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and 50.0% Fibonacci). Otherwise, after the breakout of the resistance level of 123.70, the pair would strengthen to 125.00, 125.65 (year highs).
    Support levels: 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.
    Resistance levels: 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 123.10 with targets at 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.70.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 122.40 with targets at 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.



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    XAU/USD: technical analysis

    Current trend

    XAU/USD, D1
    On the daily chart, the price remains below its moving averages with periods 10, 20 and 50 that are directed down, which indicates a downward movement in the pair. MACD’s histogram is in the negative zone that also indicates a fall. ADX also suggest decline as the DI lines are heading down and ADX is falling.
    XAU/USD, H4
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which is directed horizontally. The price remains below its MA10, MA20 and MA50, directed sideways. ADX turned down as it reached the level of 46.30, the DI lines are heading towards each other. MACD is at the zero line.

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 1065.85 (local low), 1064.63 (last week low).
    Resistance levels: 1075.27 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart), 1080.00, 1081.25 (this week high), 1087.99 (last week high).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1066.67 and stop-loss at 1075.27.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.50 with the target at 1087.00 and stop-loss at 1072.70.




    ---------- Post added 11-26-2015 at 04:02 PM ---------- Previous post was 11-25-2015 at 04:21 PM ----------

    USD/CAD: in upward trend

    Current trend

    Since the opening of the Asian session, the US Dollar has been growing. Yesterday, the US currency gained support from macroeconomic statistics that strengthened expectations of a hike in US interest rates at the upcoming Fed meeting.
    US Energy Information Administration reported a rise by 0.961 billion barrels in crude oil stocks that added pressure on Canada's currency.
    Amid expectations of US interest rates increase, oversupply of the world oil market and Canada's loose monetary policy, the USD/CAD pair tends to continue growing in the medium term.

    Support and resistance

    Though OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart recommend short positions, they are still giving buy signals on the weekly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the indicators are turning to long positions as well.
    Long positions remain valid while the price is trading above the key support level of 1.2965 (38.2% Fibonacci and EMA 144 on the daily chart).
    Support levels: 1.3240, 1.3200, 1.3140, 1.3100, 1.3050, 1.2965.
    Resistance levels: 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3450.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened at the current level or from 1.3310, 1.3290, 1.3260, 1.3230 with targets at 1.3350, 1.3390, 1.3410, 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3190.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3180 with targets at 1.3140, 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.2965 and stop-loss at 1.3220.



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    XAG/USD: pair in flat

    Current trend

    Today the XAG/USD pair is growing.
    However, the pair remains under pressure amid investors’ expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December. According to the Fed Fund Futures, the probability of the rate increase in December is at 78%. On Friday, March futures on silver fell by 12.7 cents, while the WSJ Dollar index remains at 13-year highs.
    Investors’ attention is focused on the US labour market data for November that is due on Friday and which is going to play a key role for the decision on interest rates at Fed’s December meeting.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart, the XAG/USD pair is falling along a channel with the lower border below the level of 13.85.
    Prior to the publication of important data the price will stabilise near the level of 14.00 (year lows). An upwards correction towards the level of 14.60 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) is possible. However, a breakdown of the level of 14.00 would accelerate the fall.
    On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic are turning to purchases.
    Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.50.
    Resistance levels: 14.35, 14.60, 14.80, 15.30.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 14.00, 13.80, 13.50 and stop-loss at 14.35.
    Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 14.60 with targets at 15.30, 15.50.




    ---------- Post added 12-01-2015 at 02:52 PM ---------- Previous post was 11-30-2015 at 06:02 PM ----------

    USD/CHF: growth potential remains

    Current trend

    Since the beginning of this week the USD/CHF pair was falling.
    However, today poor macroeconomic statistics from Switzerland supported the pair. The SVME – Purchasing Managers’ Index for November fell to 49.7 points, while Real Retail Sales shrank by 0.8%. Both indices came out significantly worse than forecasts. Furthermore, the third quarter GDP grew by only 0.8% against the previous year that was also worse than expected.
    Today attention needs to be paid to data on the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November from the US that is forecasted to grow from 50.1 to 50.3 points. A high volatility is expected on the market.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel between the levels of 1.0340 and 0.9800. Despite the price is trading at year highs, the growth potential towards the level of 1.0600 (ЕМА144 on the monthly chart) remains in the pair.
    At the same time, a downward correction to the level of 1.0215 (ЕМА50, lower border of an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart) is possible.
    On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic indicate a growth continuation, while on the 4-hour chart they turned to sales.
    Support levels: 1.0215, 1.0130, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
    Resistance levels: 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400.

    Trading tips

    Pending sell order can be placed from the level of 1.0270 with targets at 1.0190, 1.0100, 1.0080, 1.0000 and stop-loss at 1.0310.
    Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.0320 with targets at 1.0340, 1.0400, 1.0600 and stop-loss at 1.0280.




    ---------- Post added at 04:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:52 PM ----------

    USD/JPY: long positions preferred

    Current trend

    Since the beginning of Asian session today the USD/JPY pair fell.
    The pair was pressured by poor data on the Chinese manufacturing sector that showed further cooling of the Chinese economy. In addition, pressure on the pair comes amid investors’ expectations of further monetary policy easing in the eurozone because the Yen serves as the safe-haven currency during market instability.
    At the same time the pair is supported by expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December and further monetary policy easing in Japan as it was mentioned before by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel with the upper border near the level of 124.50, while the last 4 weeks it has been trading in a range between the levels of 123.70 (23.6% Fibonacci correction) and 122.50 (38.2% correction).
    The pair is prevented from further fall by strong support levels at 122.50, 122.25 (ЕМА144), 122.00 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), while a breakout of the level of 123.70 would send the pair to 125.00, 125.65 (year highs).
    On the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions.
    Support levels: 122.50, 122.25, 122.00, 121.50.
    Resistance levels: 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.

    Trading tips

    Pending buy orders can be placed at the levels of 122.50, 122.25, 122.00 with targets at 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 121.70; and at 123.30 with targets at 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 121.40 with targets at 121.10, 120.70 and stop-loss at 121.70.




    ---------- Post added 12-02-2015 at 12:51 PM ---------- Previous post was 12-01-2015 at 04:16 PM ----------

    EUR/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    Yesterday, the European currency strengthened slightly against the US Dollar, which was under pressure from US statistics on ISM Manufacturing PMI. In November, the indicator declined from 50.1 to 48.6 points, while analysts forecasted a growth to 50.4 points.
    November Data on Consumer Price Index is due today in the EU. The indicator is expected to come in at 0.2%. Even if the forecast is confirmed, a possible growth in the EUR will be limited as ECB is expected to continue easing its monetary policy at the upcoming meeting.
    Later on, Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen gives her speech. Market participants might get more confirming evidence that the Regulator will raise its interest rates before the year is out. The futures market is pricing in up to a 75.2% probability of a hike at the December meeting.

    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour chart, MACD indicator recommends long positions. Stochastic is giving a sell signal – the indicator has left the overbought zone; the %K line has crossed the %D line from top-to-bottom.
    A likelier scenario seems to be continuation of downward movement within a descending channel.
    The nearest support levels are 1.0555, 1.0500.
    The nearest resistance levels are 1.0688, 1.0762, 1.0820.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened if the price breaks out the level of 1.0640 with the target at 1.0685 and stop-loss at 1.0630.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0590 with targets at 1.0555, 1.0500 and stop-loss at 1.0600.



    ---------- Post added at 04:41 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:51 PM ----------

    XAU/USD: price of gold declines

    Current trend

    Since the opening of the trading day, the prices of gold and other precious metals are declining amid the strengthening in the US Dollar.
    The correlation between the price of gold and the EUR/USD pair is nearly 92%. The EUR is under strong pressure ahead of ECB interest rate decision, therefore, a decline in the price of gold is likely to continue.
    Demand for the USD, on the contrary, continues growing due to expectations of a hike in US interest rates. At present, gold does not seem to be a profitable investment as borrowing costs of buying and storing it tend to increase.

    Support and resistance

    Though on the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, they are giving sell signals on the 4-hour and weekly charts.
    Short positions are preferable. A growth to 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction and EMA144) seems possible if the price consolidates above the levels of 1085.00 and 1095.00.
    Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00, 1057.00.
    Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1073.00.



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    USD/CHF: safe-haven currency

    Current trend

    Since the beginning of the week, the USD/CHF pair was declining.
    The pair was falling despite the publication of poor data in Switzerland that came out significantly worse than forecasts and strong statistics on the US labour market. The Swiss GDP in the third quarter failed to show any growth, Real Retail Sales shrank by 0.8%, while the SVME Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.7 points.
    The main pressure on the pair resulted from increased cautiousness on the market prior to the publication of key statistics in the US that pushed investors to switch their funds into the safe-haven Franc.
    Today attention needs to be paid to the ECB Press conference and its Interest Rate Decision, Fed’s Yellen testifies, FOMC Member Mester speech, and Markit and ISM PMI’s in the US.

    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel with the lower border near the level of 1.0185 and upper border above the level of 1.0340.
    A downward correction can continue to the levels of 1.0180, 1.0130. At the same time, a growth in the pair can go up to the level of 1.0600 (ЕМА144 on the monthly chart).
    On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart they are turning to purchases.
    Support levels: 1.0230, 1.0185, 1.0130, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
    Resistance levels: 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400.

    Trading tips

    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.0180 with targets at 1.0100, 1.0080, 1.0000 and stop-loss at 1.0220.
    Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.0240 with targets at 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400, 1.0600 and stop-loss at 1.0190.




    ---------- Post added at 04:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:46 PM ----------

    AUD/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    The AUD/USD pair is strengthening, though, according to macroeconomic statistics, Australia’s trade balance deficit grew to 3.305 billion.
    The Australian Dollar is under pressure due to a fall in iron ore prices and uncertainty about China’s economic outlook.
    Today, attention needs to be paid to Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI statistics. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline from 59.1 to 58.0 points that might affect the US Dollar.

    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the MA50, MA100 and MA144, all directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, while ADX indicates downward movement.
    Today, the price is expected to trade within the range of 0.7330-0.7287.
    Support levels: 0.7287, 0.7261 (MA50).
    Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7342 (local high), 0.7360, 0.7400.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened after the consolidation above the level of 0.7330 with the target at 0.7360 and stop-loss at 0.7315.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7287 with the target at 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7300.


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    Brent: general review

    Current trend

    Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil significantly corrected due to a Dollar decline and prior to the OPEC meeting, which is due today.
    According to the majority of experts, OPEC is not going to reduce quotes despite some speculation that Saudi Arabia can reduce its output. Contrary to that, there is a possibility that quotes will be increased due to Indonesia joining the cartel and Iran’s plans to increase output after sanctions are lifted. Therefore, total output could increase to 31 million barrels instead of today’s 30 million barrels a day. In this case, the price of oil might decline below year lows near the level of 42.46.

    Support and resistance

    The nearest support level is at 42.46 (yesterday low).
    The nearest resistance level is at 44.66 (yesterday high).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 42.46 and stop-loss at 44.66.
    If OPEC decides to reduce quotes at the meeting today, open long positons with the target at 46.44 and stop-loss at 44.00.



    ---------- Post added at 06:15 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:44 PM ----------

    AUD/USD: Australia Dollar managed to strengthen

    Current trend

    On Thursday, the AUD/USD pair hit its new highs of the week. However, it should be noted that the pair strengthened in the second half of the day, while during the Asian session, the Australian currency was under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics for October.
    Australia's exports fell by 3% after a 3% growth in September. Imports were down to 0% from previous 2%. As a result, trade balance deficit surged from 2403 to 3305 billion.
    Later on, the pair managed to strengthen amid the Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech. She confirmed the possibility of an interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting, but the Regulator will have to consider the real economic indicators.

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is growing moderately, while the price range is narrowing down at the bottom. MACD is keeping its upward dynamics, though growth of the histogram is slowing down. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and trying to turn down.
    According to the indicators, a downward correction might form in the short term.
    Support levels: 0.7330, 0.7275, 0.7234, 0.7200, 0.7183, 0.7158 (23 November low).
    Resistance levels: 0.7363 (3 December high), 0.7381 (12 December high), 0.7400 (mid-August level).

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened if the price rebounds from the level of 0.7300 (with appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7260. Validity – 1-2 days.
    Short positions look more preferable and can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7300 with targets at 0.7200, 0.7180 and stop-loss at 0.7350. Validity – 2-3 days.



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    EUR/USD: NFPR had little effect

    Current trend

    Despite strong Friday’s data on the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US, the Dollar could not recover losses of Thursday.
    Nonetheless, November NFPR suggest a steady recovery of the US labour market. The figure came out stronger than was predicted by economists at 211 thousands new jobs, while October figure was revised up from 271 to 298 thousands new jobs. In addition, Average Hourly Earnings in November increased by 0.2%.
    Considering strong recent data from the US, the probability of an interest rate hike in December significantly increases that could lead to the USD strengthening.

    Support and resistance

    For the downward trend to resume the price should consolidate below the support levels at 1.0820 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, May and July lows), 1.0760 (ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart).
    At the same time, a consolidation above the level of 1.0890 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) could allow an upward correction towards the level of 1.1050 (ЕМА144, upper border of a descending channel on the daily chart) to continue.
    On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic suggest a growth continuation, while on the 4-hour chart the indicators are turning to sales.
    Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0760, 1.0700, 1.0600, 1.0560, 1.0500.
    Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1050, 1.1180, 1.1285.

    Trading tips

    Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1.0845 with targets at 1.0820, 1.0760, 1.0710 and stop-loss at 1.0890.
    Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.0910 with targets at 1.0940, 1.1050, 1.1090 and stop-loss at 1.0880.




    ---------- Post added 12-08-2015 at 11:31 AM ---------- Previous post was 12-07-2015 at 01:20 PM ----------

    GBP/USD: general review

    Current trend

    Yesterday the Pound fell against the US Dollar.
    The USD was supported after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5% in line with expectations, while the Nonfarm Payrolls amounted to 211 thousands that was better than forecasted 200 thousands though less than the previous figure of 298 thousands. At the same time, yesterday’s data on the Consumer Credit Change showed a decrease to 15.98 billion Dollars, which was worse than its forecasts.
    Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Industrial Production and BRC Retail Sales Monitor in the UK, and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings in the US.

    Support and resistance

    The nearest support level is at 1.5000 (30 November lows).
    The nearest resistance level is at*1.5080 (moving average with 50 period).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.5000*and stop-loss at 1.5080.



    ---------- Post added at 03:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:31 AM ----------

    XAU/USD: pair in correction

    Current trend

    The price of gold remains under pressure after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market for November. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.0%, while the Nonfarm Payrolls came out better than forecasts. The data indicates a stable condition of the labour market and ****ual recovery of the US economy that removes last barriers for the Fed to hike interest rates this month. Fed Funds futures represent almost 80% probability of the rate hike in December.
    Thus in the medium term amid ****ual tightening of monetary policy in the US gold will continue falling.

    Support and resistance

    After reaching the key support level at 1070.00 (EMA144 on the monthly chart), the pair remains in correction that could continue to the levels of 1085.00 (EMA144), 1092.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), a breakout of which would send the pair to 1100.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart) and 1118.00 (23.6% Fibonacci correction).
    On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions. On the 4-hour chart, Stochastic is also turning to purchases.
    Support levels: 1070.00, 1060.00, 1053.00, 1050.00, 1045.00.
    Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1092.00, 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00.

    Trading tips

    Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1085.00, 1092.00 with targets at 1070.00, 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1095.00, and from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
    Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1095.00 with targets at 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00 and stop-loss at 1090.00.




    ---------- Post added 12-09-2015 at 02:30 PM ---------- Previous post was 12-08-2015 at 03:39 PM ----------

    XAG/USD: in correction

    Current trend

    Yesterday on COMEX, the price of March futures on silver fell by 21.6 cents.
    The pair remains under pressure amid expectations of an interest rate hike in the US in December this year and a further cycle of ****ual monetary policy tightening in the US in the next year. In addition, the price of silver is pressured by falling commodities and oil prices.
    Due to the absence of important macroeconomic publications today and prior to meetings of the Bank of England and the Swiss NB that are due tomorrow, the pair will continue moving along a sideways channel.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart, the XAG/USD pair is falling along a descending channel with the lower border below the level of 13.50.
    An upward correction in the pair can continue up to the levels of 14.40 (ЕМА144), 14.50 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 14.00 (year lows) will accelerate the fall and sends the price to 12.30, 13.00 (2009 lows).
    On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart they start turning to purchases indicating that the upward correction can continue.
    Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.50.
    Resistance levels: 14.40, 14.50, 14.80, 15.30.

    Trading tips

    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 13.95 with targets at 13.50, 13.20 and stop-loss at 14.10.
    Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 14.30 with targets at 14.40, 14.50, 14.75 and stop-loss at 13.95.




    ---------- Post added at 04:13 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:30 PM ----------

    USD/JPY: pair fell

    Current trend

    During the last two days the pair substantially fell.
    The pair was pressured by strong data on Machinery Orders for October in Japan that grew by 0.7% and significantly exceeded forecasts. In addition, the Yen is supported be revised data on the GDP for the third quarter that showed a 1% growth, the Consumer Confidence Index for November that increased to 42.6 points and Labour Cash Earnings that grew by 0.7%. At the same time, demand for the Yen as the safe-haven currency could increase prior to meetings by the Bank of England and Swiss NB that are due tomorrow.
    Strong macroeconomic data can push the Bank of Japan to postpone further monetary policy easing that will also support the Yen.

    Support and resistance

    The pair remains above the strong support levels at 122.60 (EMA144), 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci correction), 122.35 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), a breakdown of which would send the price towards 122.15 (EMA50 on the daily chart). A farther fall is restricted by support levels at 121.50 (50% correction), 121.35 (ЕМА144), 120.60 (61.8% correction, EMA200).
    On the 4-hour and daily charts OsMA and stochastic recommend sales.
    Support levels: 122.60, 122.50, 122.35, 122.15, 121.50.
    Resistance levels: 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.

    Trading tips

    Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 123.10 with targets at 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 122.50 with targets at 122.35, 122.10, 121.80, 121.00, 120.70 and stop-loss at 122.80.




    ---------- Post added 12-10-2015 at 10:51 AM ---------- Previous post was 12-09-2015 at 04:13 PM ----------

    NZD/USD: general review

    Current trend

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreased its key interest rate from 2.75% to 2.5% in line with expectations. However, the NZD grew against the USD and approached last week highs.
    In its Rate Statement, the regulator stated that it expects stability in the near future with regards to the interest rates. The RBNZ is not going to dismiss completely an option of further policy easing if needs but it is unlikely to happen soon, which is a positive factor for the national currency.

    Support and resistance

    On 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the middle and upper MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain below the price and directed up indicating an upward trend in the pair. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are ****ually growing. DI lines of the ADX indicator are crossing each other and directed down.
    Support levels: 0.6719, 0.6675, 0.6659 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands, MA50), 0.6636 (MA100), 0.6578, 0.6470, 0.6428.
    Resistance levels: 0.6747, 0.6787 (last week high).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6719 with the target at 0.6675 and stop-loss at 0.6747.
    Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.6747 with the target at 0.6787 and stop-loss at 0.6719.


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    USD/JPY: review and forecast

    Current trend

    Though expectations of a hike at the upcoming Fed meeting are growing, the JPY has strengthened.
    Futures traders are putting an 87.2% chance of a hike in US interest rates. At the same time, many investors suggest that a continuous growth in the USD has ended since a rate increase is obvious and already priced into the markets. In this situation, many market participants prefer taking profits on USD long positions.
    The Japanese currency and the country's economy also gain support from low commodity prices.

    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour chart, the price has formed a Pin-bar that suggests a possible correction after downward movement.
    Support levels: 121.00, 120.50, 120.00.
    Resistance levels: 122.00, 122.30, 123.00.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 121.00 with targets at 120.50, 120.00 and stop-loss at 121.20.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 122.00 with targets at 122.30, 123.00 and stop-loss at 121.70.


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    XAU/USD: general review
    Current trend
    Yesterday the pair was trading in the range 1076.43-1069.34 and closed at opening levels, but today managed to overcome the support level at 1072.23 and falling.
    Today data on Retail Sales is due in the US. According to forecasts, the index will grow by 0.2%, which if confirmed will pressure the XAU/USD pair.
    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the middle and bottom MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down indicating a downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone suggesting a fall. ADX also signals the decline as DI lines cross each other, while the ADX line is moving down.
    Support levels: 1055.87 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1053.21, 1046.57 (last week low).
    Resistance levels: 1072.23 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1086.41 (this week high), 1096.71, 1105.84, 1125.28, 1138.12.
    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1055.87 and stop-loss at 1072.23.
    Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1072.23 with the target at 1086.41 and stop-loss at 1067.00.



    ---------- Post added at 05:20 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:13 PM ----------

    USD/JPY: review and forecast
    Current trend
    Having opened this trading day with a growth, the US Dollar started declining in the European session. However, later on, an upward dynamics resumed. The American currency is strengthening amid a fall in oil and precious metals prices.
    Recently, BOJ Governor stated the Regulator might continue easing monetary policy to stimulate wage growth in Japan. The next BOJ meeting is due on 17-18 December, while the Fed announces its interest rate decision on 16 December.
    Support and resistance
    After a growth at the opening of the trading day, the USD/JPY pair has started declining towards the support level of 121.50 (Fibonacci 50.0%) during the European session.
    However, when the correction ends and OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily chart turn up, the pair is likely to resume its growth within an upward channel on the daily chart.
    Support levels: 121.50, 121.35.
    Resistance levels: 122.00, 122.30, 122.50.
    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 122.10 with targets at 122.50, 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 121.80.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 121.25 with targets at 121.00, 120.70 and stop-loss at 121.55.



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    EUR/USD: general analysis
    Current trend
    The Fed holds its finial meeting of the year on Wednesday. Many market participants expect a hike in US interest rates, so if the forecast is confirmed, the European currency is likely to weaken.
    However, as long as inflation has not reached the target level of 2% yet, it might be seen as a determining factor for a forthcoming decision. Another negative aspect is Manufacturing PMI which came in below the key level of 50 points. This data might indicate a slowdown in economic growth.
    Thus, in its decision making, the Fed will consider labor market statistics, inflation rate and the world economic situation.
    Supportandresistance
    Since the opening of the trading day, the European currency has been slightly declining against the US Dollar.
    The key resistance level is still at 1.1040 the breakout of which would allow the price to continue growing towards 1.1150-1.1200.
    Support level: 1.0925.
    The nearest resistance level: 1.1055.
    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0925 with the target at 1.0875 and stop-loss at 1.0950.



    ---------- Post added at 02:10 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:05 PM ----------

    EUR/USD: general analysis
    Current trend
    The Fed holds its finial meeting of the year on Wednesday. Many market participants expect a hike in US interest rates, so if the forecast is confirmed, the European currency is likely to weaken.
    However, as long as inflation has not reached the target level of 2% yet, it might be seen as a determining factor for a forthcoming decision. Another negative aspect is Manufacturing PMI which came in below the key level of 50 points. This data might indicate a slowdown in economic growth.
    Thus, in its decision making, the Fed will consider labor market statistics, inflation rate and the world economic situation.
    Supportandresistance
    Since the opening of the trading day, the European currency has been slightly declining against the US Dollar.
    The key resistance level is still at 1.1040 the breakout of which would allow the price to continue growing towards 1.1150-1.1200.
    Support level: 1.0925.
    The nearest resistance level: 1.1055.
    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0925 with the target at 1.0875 and stop-loss at 1.0950.



    ---------- Post added at 03:43 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:10 PM ----------

    AUD/JPY: pair resumed its decline
    Current trend
    The AUD/JPY pair has declined from its local lows, reached in the first week of December. The Japanese currency has gained support form speculations over the upcoming Fed meeting. Though a hike in US interest rates is forecasted, investors suggest market reaction might be different than expected. It is possible that monetary policy tightening has already been priced into the market.
    Last week, the Australian currency was growing only on Thursday amid the publication of unexpectedly favorable labor market statistics for November. Employment Change came in at 74.1K while a decline in the indicator by 10.0K had been forecasted. Unemployment Rate was down to 5.8% from 5.9% against expectations of an increase to 6.0%.
    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is turning down, while the price range is widening. However, the indicator has formed a signal for an upward correction. MACD keeps its downward trend. Stochastic is near the border of the oversold zone and trying to turn up.
    It is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 87.00, 86.45 (10 November low), 86.00, 85.69, 85.00.
    Resistance levels: 87.30, 88.00, 88.60, 89.12 (10 December high), 89.59, 90.00, 90.34, 90.71 (4 December high), 91.00.
    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 87.30 with targets at 88.00, 88.60, 89.00 and stop-loss at 86.70. Validity – 2-4 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 87.00 with the target at 86.00 and stop-loss at 87.50. Validity – 2-3 days.




    ---------- Post added 12-15-2015 at 01:45 PM ---------- Previous post was 12-14-2015 at 03:43 PM ----------

    AUD/USD: general review
    Current trend
    Since the beginning of the week, the pair is growing.
    Today the pair was supported by strong data from Australia. New Motor Vehicle Sales for November grew to 6%, while the House Price Index came out in line with forecasts at 2%. At the same time, the pair is pressured by expectations of the Fed Interest Rate Decision that is due tomorrow. Markets expect rates to be increased that would add to the pressure on the pair.
    Today attention needs to be paid to the Consumer Price Index in the US. Volatility on the market is expected to be low.
    Support and resistance
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the middle and upper MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 100 and 144 periods are above the price and directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes remain almost unchanged. ADX indicates pair’s decline, DI lines cross over and directed down.
    Today, the pair is expected to remain within the range of 0.7247-0.7302.
    Support levels: 0.7247 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands, MA50), 0.7182, 0.7159 (this week low), 0.7133, 06984, 0.6908.
    Resistance levels: 0.7280, 0.7302 (MA100), 0.7343 (last week low), 0.7353, 0.7385.
    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.7280 with targets at 0.7302, 0.7343 and stop-loss at 0.7260.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7247 with the target at 0.7182 and stop-loss at 0.7280.
    Scenario validity – 1-2 days.

    [COLOR="Silver"]

    ---------- Post added at 03:37 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:52 PM ----------

    USD/CAD: review and forecast
    Current trend
    On Monday, the USD/CAD pair hit its highest levels in more than 11 years. The demand for the US Dollar is strong ahead of the Fed meeting. The Canadian Dollar, in its turn, is under enormous pressure from falling oil prices.
    Most investors expect a hike in US interest rate by 0.25 basis points. It is the tone of Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen’s comments that still raises doubts. If she points to a slow-paced series of rate increases, the USD will strengthen slightly. Otherwise, in case of a more hawkish view, a surge in the USD is expected.
    Consumer Price Index is due today in the US. In monthly terms, zero inflation is expected; in annual terms, analysts forecast an increase from 0.2% to 0.4%. More positive data will strengthen the USD.
    Later on, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz gives his speech. Low oil prices are strongly affecting the country’s economy, and the Regulator might reduce its interest rate to minus -0.5%. If such a possibility is confirmed, the CAD would weaken more against the USD.
    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart, a doji pattern has formed that suggests the possibility of a downward correction.
    Support levels: 1.3675, 1.3623, 1.1355.
    Resistance levels: 1.3780, 1.3823, 1.3900.
    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3785 with targets at 1.3825 and 1.3900.
    Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3675 with targets at 1.3630 and 1.3560.


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