The last week was positive for the EUR/USD pair due to the “dovish” FRS mood of the interest rate rise and the positive for the EUR Netherlands Elections result. The growth o the pair slowed in the end of the week due to the traders’ fixing the profit, which presses the price to the level of 1.0700. The pair managed to close above this level, which entrusted the “bulls”. In the beginning of the week the pair is growing and tested the level of 1.0780.
Due to the absence of the significant news from the Eurozone and the USA, the pair will move within 1.0800-1.0600 in the short term and middle term period.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart the pair is growing along the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The MACD histogram is near the zero line, its volumes are growing, the signal line crosses the zero line upwards, giving a signal to open long positions.
Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0640, 1.0600.
Resistance levels: 1.0780, 1.0800, 1.0825.
Open long positions at the current price with the target at 1.0800 and stop loss at 1.0720.
Short positions open from the level of 1.0690 with the target at 1.0640 and stop loss at 1.0720.
Implementation period: 1-3 days.
On the daily chart the pair is traded within the middle line and the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the growth of price slowed. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are minimal, the signal line crosses the zero line downwards, giving a signal to open short positions. The Stochastic is growing towards the border of the neutral zone whit the overbought one, the signal line is pointed upwards, in case of crossing of the border the sell signal will be received.
On the 4-hour chart the pair is traded sideways within the narrow channel of the Bollinger Bands indicator borders. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, moving sideways and keeping its volumes at the level of 0.060. The Stochastic is in the neutral zone, giving no clear signal.
Open short positions at the current price with the target at 16.80. Stop loss is at 17.70. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Open long positions at the level of 17.70 with the target at 18.50 and stop loss at 17.30. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
On the 4-hour chart the price broke down through the level of 11904.5 (correction by 38.2%) but stopped on the 50% line of the ascending fan. This indicates the possibility of a turn to 12008.0 (correction by 23.6%, middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 12136.0 (the area of March maximums). The possibility of growth is confirmed by Stochastic that is about to leave the oversold zone and to form a buying signal, and by Fibonacci summation series, according to which the fall has been going on for five days. To continue the fall, the price needs to consolidate below 50.0% fan line. In this case the targets of the "bears" will be 11820.0 (correction by 50.0%) and 11737.0 (correction by 61.8%).
The price has been growing on D1 chart for over 90 days, and according Fibonacci summation series may continue to do so. Currently the price has corrected from March maximums to the lower line of Bollinger Bands (12820.0) and may regain growth to 12973.5. In case the price consolidates below it, it may continue decreasing to the levels of 11636.5 (23.6% correction for long-term trend; 76,4% correction for middle-term trend) and 11136.5 (correction 38.2%).
Long positions may be open if the price consolidates over 11904.5 with targets at 12008.0 and 12136.0. Stop-loss order should be placed at 11873.0.
Alternatively, if the price consolidates below 50.0% fan line, selling positions may be opened at the level of 11863.0 with targets at 11820.0, 11365.0 and stop-loss at 11890.0.
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During the trading session on Wednesday the gold prices grew by 0.38% due to the weakening of the USD. The price met the resistance level of 1251.21 and was slightly corrected. The traders’ activity lowered in expectation of the Head of the FRS Janet Yellen Speech today (14:45 GMT+2). The investors are waiting for the signals about the interest rate rise. If Janet Yellen implies the possibility of the rise on the June meeting, the USD will be significantly supported in the short term, which leads to the lowering the metal prices to the level of 1240.37 and lower. The neutral mood of the commentaries will support the gold prices to grow to the area of 1260.00.
Support and resistance
The technical picture is mixed. The Bollinger Bands indicator is pointed upwards, reflecting the possibility of further growth. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes decreasing, reflecting the lowering of the traders’ activity. In case of breakout of the level of 1251.21 the upward trend will develop further.
Support levels: 1244.17, 1237.86, 1230.84.
Resistance levels: 1251.21, 1260.18, 1268.51.
Open short positions below the level 1244.17 with the target at 1237.86 and stop loss at 1246.17.
Open long positions above the level 1251.21 with the target at в районе 1260.18 and stop loss at 1248.20.
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