Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 1st September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 1st September 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

The global stock market selloff continued in overnight trade in Asia, with the Nikkei dropping off another 3.84%. The USD traded mostly weaker; oil prices have fallen back off the recent high price near $54.3, and now trades just below $53 after rallying strongly over the three previous sessions. The USD weakness may be linked to the new declines in Chinese and global stock markets, this global selloff have investors and traders rethinking the timing of when the U.S. Fed will tighten rates. This uncertainty regarding the timing of a U.S. rate hike is fueling the current downward pressure on the USD. The markets will remain volatile until we see clearer signs from the U.S. Fed.

The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the immediate short term remains to be contained within the Aug 7th – Aug 12th upward slopping price channel. Now that the price has clearly bounced off the 1.12’s key, support current price potential is set to test the upside between the 1.1460 – 1.1530’s. However, any break below 1.12 could open up a 1.11 target. A hypothetical trade set up could be to resell near the 1.1460’s – 1.1530’s for a 1.11 target.

German jobless numbers fell 7K in August, slightly more than expected and leaving the seasonally adjusted jobless rate steady at a low 6.4%. Official numbers still look good, but the improvement on the labour market is leveling off as the market is increasingly tight.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 2.0%, as widely expected and ignoring recent market turmoil in Chinese stock markets. The AUD is seen as adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices and further depreciation seems likely; however, the RBA is now cautious about adjusting rates lower because of the strong Australian property market.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The USD is softer across the board as declines in Chinese and global stock markets and the associated risk-off sentiment have served to erode Fed tightening expectations, which weighed on the USD.

The AUD is weaker post-RBA statement gains amid a backdrop of declining Asian and global stock markets.

The EUR and the GBP are mostly trading mixed as the EU commission maintains a 1.5% growth forecast, and UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Manufacturing PMI: August manufacturing PMI revised down to 52.3 from 52.4 reported initially, which means the overall reading fell slightly from the 52.4 reported for July, despite the sharp jump in the German reading. Confidence indicators overall still held up in August, but the downward revision ties in with contraction in China and is likely to herald further weakness in coming months as demand falls off with slowing growth in emerging markets and uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy.

• GBP Manufacturing PMI: The UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed at 51.5 in August, down from July’s 51.9 reading and below the median forecast for 52.0. The August dip brings the PMI indicator to within a whisker of June’s two-year low of 51.4. The strong trade-weighted value of sterling has been curtailing the export-sensitive sector.

• CAD Gross Domestic Product: GDP is seen falling 1.0% in Q2 (q/q,) after the 0.6% drop in Q1. But the expected 0.2% gain in June GDP would end a five month run of monthly GDP declines and support Bank expectations that the economy will recover in 2H.

• USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: August ISM will be released later today and should reveal a headline decline to 52.5 (median 52.7) from 52.7 in July. Other measures of producer sentiment have been volatile for the month with big drops in the Empire State, and Richmond and Dallas Fed’s. The Philly Fed did manage to climb higher to 8.3 from 5.7 last month. Despite this the balance of risk for tomorrow’s release is to the downside and we expect the broader ISM-adjusted average for the month to fall to 52 after holding at 53 in both July and June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 31st August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 31st August 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

Asian stock markets closed lower again in overnight trade, led by a 1.28% decline in the Nikkei 225, as the Chinese stock markets backed off following a Beijing announcement that large-scale purchases to support the market are not to be expected in the future. This weighed on regional equities, Asian and commodity currencies. At the time of writing, U.S. stock futures are down -125 points, setting the stage for a renewed decline in European stock markets.

Eurozone August inflation data is out later today and it should show a renewed drop in the headline rate closer towards zero in the wake of lower commodity prices, EUR traders will look for further ECB rate clues in language during the press conference on Thursday after the Minimum Bid Rate decision. Traders should also take note that ECB Vice President Constancio said at the Jackson Hole symposium that current inflation forecasts don’t price in recent declines in oil prices. This backs expectations for a downward revision to the central bank’s inflation forecasts at Thursday’s council meeting.

The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the short term is that price is bouncing off the 1.12’s key support level with price potential limited to the upside between the 1.1460 – 1.1530’s. Price looks to be trading at the lower end of the short term upward price channel, and as long as the key 1.12’s hold firm the longs should maintain control over the immediate short term. Short sellers may present themselves on a break below the 1.12’s with support levels seen near the low 1.11’s – 1.1150’s.

Traders should pay some attention to the recent statements by Central Bank “centers of influence members” since a large part of the recent market volatility revolves around the uncertainty of the timing of rate adjustments. The U.S. Fed vice chairman Fischer saying over the weekend that “there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further,” while BoE Governor Carney said that China uncertainty was unlikely to change UK monetary policy. On Friday, Atlanta Fed moderate Lockhart said he’s less resolute on a September hike in wake of market volatility, according to a Market News report. Market turmoil may change the thinking on policy, he said, though the economy is in “quite solid mode of expansion.”



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current 5-day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago.

The JPY is weaker across the board as the Japan CPI rose 0.2% y/y in July slowing from 0.4% in June. The AUD traded generally stronger as construction work done in Australia climbed 1.6% q/q for Q2 2015. The CAD is firmer after the CAD PPI in July inched up 0.1% y/y, after it had fallen 0.9% in June.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Consumer Price Index: EMU August CPI is expected to fall to 0.1% (median same) from 0.2%, this is mainly the result of lower oil prices. Sharply lower oil prices mean the inflation trajectory will likely look flatter than previously and at the same time the risks to growth have increased. Still, core inflation is actually trending higher, money supply growth is accelerating and loan growth stabilising. In this situation, the ECB will use low inflation to give markets some dovish sound-bites at Thursday’s central bank meeting and stress that the door to further measures remains open, without committing to further easing.

• USD Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index: The Chicago PMI continues the August producer sentiment releases later today and should reveal a headline improvement to 55.0 (median 54.9) from 54.7. Producer sentiment measures have been mixed so far in August and we expect the month’s ISM-adjusted average to decline to 52 after holding at 53 in both June and July.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 28th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 28th August 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

The EURUSD hit a low near the key 1.12 support level on Thursday , I previously posted “I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12’s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair.” This I posted when the EURUSD was trading around 1.1311. At the moment, the euro is likely to continue its bounce off the key support as buyers emerged to support price. The risk for short sellers is that the latest bounce could extend out towards the 1.14’s – 15’s. However, traders should be on alert for any price drop below the 1.12’s as this move may raise fears for a return towards the low 1.11’s to mid 1.1150’s.

The rebound on stock markets continued in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp up 1.77% and Japanese markets outperforming. The USD managed to firm up in the wake of renewed optimism about the U.S. economy following yesterday’s revised Q2 GDP, which also helped the U.S. Dow Jones to close up 2.30% on Thursday. Today, the Eurozone stock markets are broadly lower, with Eurozone markets underperforming and the DAX down around 8% for the month. The markets are now hoping that stimulus from central banks may have helped to limit the sell off. Uncertainty about growth and central bank outlooks is adding to market volatility and means the impact of stronger than expected data is unclear.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The AUD is weaker across the board as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. Also, the unrest in China’s stock markets remains the major risk factor for the AUD. The GBP trades lower after a bout of sterling buying in the wake of UK Q2 GDP data, which was unrevised at +0.7% q/q.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP UK Q2 GDP:: UK GDP was left unrevised at +0.7% q/q and +2.6% y/y in second-estimate data, matching expectations. Growth in 2014 was also left unrevised, at 3.0%. The breakdown showed a 3.7% q/q rise in exports versus just a 0.6% q/q increase in imports, while consumer spending eased to +0.7% q/q. Encouragingly, business expenditure rose 2.9% q/q, the biggest rise in 12 months, and by 5.0% y/y.

• USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug): The second release on Michigan Sentiment is out Today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 93.5 (median 94.0) after a 92.9 headline in the first release that marked a decline from 93.1 in July. The tendency over the past year has been for upward revisions and consumer confidence for the month spiked higher, rising to 101.5 from 91.0 in July. These two factors should lend upside risk to the release.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th August 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

The EUR is trading generally weaker after posting broad based declines yesterday, as lower energy prices has led to a 1.7% decline in German import price inflation. The current lower inflation trajectory will give the ECB an excuse to talk down the euro; speculators should not rule out any further ECB QE expansion in the wake of the recent global market turmoil. I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12’s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair.

European stock markets are broadly higher, following gains on Wall Street and in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp managing to extend gains in late trade closing with a 5.34% gain. The Nikkei closed 1.08% higher and the Hang Seng is up nearly 3%. In Europe, most markets are up around 2%, with the DAX leading the way with a 2.34% gain – the FTSE 100 is up 2.07% and the Euro Stoxx 2.20%.

Downbeat central bank comments are adding to market support with rate hike expectations in the U.S. and the U.K. being pushed back and the increased possibility that the ECB will move further into QE. Volatility is likely to remain high in this climate of uncertainty about the world growth outlook.

Dovish Fed speaking from Dudley, who said a September rate hike “seems less compelling to me” than a few weeks ago, had an impact on the markets with the Dow Jones closing up nearly +3.95% in Wednesday trade.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY continues to trade weaker across the board as the USDJPY bounces off the recent 1.1616 monthly low to break through to the upside of the 120’s.

The commodity driven currencies; AUD, CAD and NZD, are all trading stronger as Copper, Gold and Crude Oil firm up. The GBP remains mixed as cable traders digest the previous session’s sharp sell off of the GBPUSD.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• USD Gross Domestic Price Index (Q2): The second release on Q2 GDP is out today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 3.5% (median 3.3%) from 2.3% in the first release. Construction spending and inventories are expected to lead the revisions. We expect construction spending to be revised up by $17 bln, inventories by $16 bln, consumption by $11 bln and net exports and equipment spending should both be revised up by $2 bln.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 22nd are out later today and should reveal a decline in the headline to 274k (median 275k) after an increase to 277k in the August 15th week. Claims are continuing at restrained levels in August and we expect the average for the month to be 274k which compares to 272k in July and 277k in June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 24th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21th August 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

The risk-off theme continues in global financial markets as traders re-price the USD in view of the reduced chance that the Fed will begin tightening rates in September. The EURUSD is now trading near multi month highs around 1.15 after accelerating through my 1.1260�s target area; see my August 14 report, current price is starting to look overbought ahead of the 1.1530 resistance level. EURUSD traders should watch if price can hold above the 1.1436 support level before initiating new longs, otherwise a break below the 1.1430�s could open up the possibility for a set-back towards the 1.1216 � 1.1189 levels ahead of an advance on the 1.16�s.

German property prices continue to rise, with prices for apartments rising by around 1.4% m/m. The overall index rose 0.73% m/m and up 5.3% y/y. Low interest rates and a robust labour market are driving up property prices, but while the Bundesbank is keeping a close eye on developments it is not seeing signs of a serious property bubble at the moment, even if prices in key cities are already overvalued.

Asian and emerging market currencies are under pressure, along with commodity related currencies such as the AUD and the CAD as the FOMC minutes showed a Committee divided, the minutes gave no clear signals on the timing of a rate liftoff, however the mention of risks from China, the growth/inflation impacts of a stronger dollar, and a down****ed inflation outlook from the Fed Staff resulted in a downbeat market interpretation. China will remain a focal point as Chinese officials struggle with a slowing economy and falling equity market.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current 5 day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago.

The AUD is trading lower as the spill-over from the turmoil in China�s stock markets remain a risk factor for the AUD. The JPY is trading higher as talk of further easing to stimulate growth continues to gain momentum.

The EUR over the last five trading days is stronger as the current sell off in the Chinese stock markets and weak commodity prices may have the market rethinking a US rate move in September.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

� USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart is due to speak today.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full Hot-Forex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

---------- Post added 08-26-2015 at 10:33 AM ---------- Previous post was 08-25-2015 at 11:36 AM ----------

Date : 26th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 26th August 2015.

[waqas1234]

itny bry comments koi kesa karta hai mjhe to samjh nhi a arahi This highlights the fact that price trading fairly close to important higher time frame support. Nearest support level is at 723.00 while the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level at 767 practically coincides with a resistance created by a weekly pivot low 772.10. The fact that this region coincides with a 38.2% Fibonacci level when drawn from t

[HFblogNews]

Date : 20th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 20th August 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

The FOMC minutes lacked clear signs of September rate hike and triggered a sharp move higher in EURUSD yesterday. The pair moved to upper 1.5 sd Bollinger band and is now trading inside 4h pivotal resistance and relatively close to a weekly resistance level at 1.1189. When price is trading near a higher time frame resistance, such as a weekly level at 1.1189, it is more challenging for the bulls to move prices higher and downward reactions from proximity of the level become more probable. The daily picture is now medium term bullish with the latest low being a (second) higher low and the high before that being a higher high. This suggests that there is now a daily uptrend in place and we should see EURUSD moving higher into the weekly resistance area over the coming weeks but longs should be timed at corrections. In the short term, the nearby resistance area could be a challenge for the bulls and we should keep an eye on how price reacts to the resistance levels. The nearest significant support and resistance levels are at 1.1015 and 1.1189.

ESM rubberstamped the Greek bailout late yesterday, following the ratification in national parliaments this week and last Friday’s approval by the Eurogroup. The ESM said EUR 13 bn will be paid out immediately and a EUR 10 bn bank buffer transferred to a segregated account at the ESM. EUR 3 bn are to be disbursed by the end of November, after further prior action from Greece. The ESM said the privatisation fund is to be established this year with a total targeted value of EUR 50 bn of assets to be sold. “Debt relief for Greece in the form of longer grace and payments periods, will be considered after the first review” in October/November and the IMF is expected to contribute “after European creditors adopt debt relief measures”. Whether this form of “soft debt relief” will be sufficient to satisfy the fund remains the key question for IMF participation.

German producer prices continue to fall, with annual PPI inflation coming in at -1.3% y/y in July, up from -1.4% y/y in June, but still firmly in negative territory. The renewed decline in energy prices is keeping a lid on import prices and overall PPI, while this year’s drop in the EUR is taking its time to feed through the product chain. Still headline rates are inching up from the lows seen at the start of the year and excluding energy the rate stood at -0.2% y/y in July. There never really was a great risk of a real deflationary spiral in Germany and with a tight labour market adding to wage gains and a rise in unit labour costs, while fueling consumption, inflation is seen trending higher over the next year.

FOMC minutes showed a leaning toward a hike, with most officials seeing conditions for liftoff approaching (minutes were leaked early). However, as of July, those conditions still hadn’t been met. And the recent events from China make September a difficult call. While participants cheered the improvement in the economy since the weak Q1, validating their forecasts, a few were disappointed that growth was still lower than had been projected earlier in the year. On inflation, it’s still expected to pick up, although some saw downside risks due to economic and financial developments abroad. The remarks on China were a little more expansive than usual. It said “several participants noted that a material slowdown in Chinese economic activity could pose risks to the U.S. economic outlook. Some participants also discussed the risk that a possible divergence in interest rates in the United States and abroad might lead to further appreciation of the dollar, extending the downward pressure on commodity prices and the weakness in net exports.” Also of note, the Fed staff revised its inflation outlook down and price pressures are expected to remain below the 2% target through 2017.



Currency Movers Charts

EUR has been strong today across the board while AUD has been losing ground especially against EUR. EURAUD has been trending higher over the past few weeks and the latest move EURUSD encouraged buyers in to take EURAUD to the recent highs at 1.53. EURCAD is another strongly trending pair moving towards a resistance at 1.4733. Since March this year, EUR has been moving higher against the CAD on the back of oil prices staying weak.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• US Philadelphia Fed Index: The August Philly Fed is out Thursday and is expected to decline to 4.0 (median 6.5) from 5.7 in July. The already released Empire State index plunged in August, dropping to -14.9 from 3.9 in July with the ISM-adjusted measure falling to 44.9 from 50.0. This drop set a low back to 2009 and will be a source of downside risk for the remaining August producer sentiment reports.

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 15 is out Thursday and the headline is expected to fall to 266k (median 270k) from 274k last week and 269k in the week prior to that. Claims are poised to average 274k in August after a lean 272k in July.

• US Existing Home Sales: July existing home sales data is out Thursday and should show a 1.6% slowdown in the headline pace to 5.400 million (median 5.440 million) from 5.490 million in June. The June headline set a new high back to ’09. Already released measures of housing strength for July have remained firm with the NAHB rising to 60 from 59 and housing starts up to 1.206 million from 1.204 million in June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full Hot-Forex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.[COLOR="Silver"][COLOR="Silver"]

---------- Post added at 11:56 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:55 AM ----------

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19h August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th August 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, Daily Yesterday’s intraday rally was short lived and EURUSD resumed its downward trend. In the Asian session the pair moved higher and attempted to test resistance at 1.1080. Rally moved the EURUSD spot rate outside a descending 4h price channel. However, the aforementioned resistance is a daily low from 13th while 50 day SMA is coinciding with the level. This combination triggered selling and the last complete 4h candle turned into a shooting star. As mentioned in the previous reports, there are no significant daily support levels before the 1.0934. And because the spot is now close to resistance levels, it makes more sense to look for further downside over the coming days. IMF participation in Greek bailout is indispensable for Germany, according to German Finance Minister Schaeuble. He stressed that the IMF agreed in principle to join the Greek bailout and said he is confident about the IMF’s assessment of Greek debt sustainability. Schaeuble, who is trying to sell the package to increasingly reluctant lawmakers from his own party, repeated that a haircut is out of the question and that there is only “limited” room for further Greek debt relief. So it’s hard to share his confidence that the IMF will come on board in October. Eurozone officials have been considering soft debt relief in the form of maturity extensions and extended payment holidays, but the IMF previously argued that this is unlikely to be sufficient to reach debt sustainability. Assuring lawmakers that the IMF will get on board, risks that Schaeuble and Merkel will have to declare defeat if there is no agreement with the fund on Greek debt. China’s economy and a EM debt crisis are now the principal concerns of investors, according to the latest sentiment survey from BoA-Merrill, eclipsing risks of a Eurozone breakdown This comes with emerging market stocks trading at four-year lows and Asian currencies taking a pummeling. Both the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah clocked fresh 17-year lows today, since the dark days of the 1998 Asian crisis. China is very much at the center of all this. Stock markets there had another volatile day with the Shanghai Composite showing a 5.1% loss at its intraday low, but managing to close with just a 1.2% decline (it’s not clear whether official support was behind this, but that seems to be the widespread suspicion). This follows the 6.1% dive of yesterday. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was boosted to 1.3% for Q3 from the previous 0.7% estimate, as the measure catches up to the internals of Friday’s industrial production report, though still some distance from the Blue Chip median estimate of 2.7%. “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.3 percent on August 18, up from 0.7 percent on August 13. The forecast for real GDP growth increased from 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent after Friday’s industrial production release from the Federal Reserve. Most of this increase was due to a 15.3 percent increase in seasonally adjusted motor vehicle assemblies in July that boosted the forecast of the contribution of real inventory investment to third-quarter GDP growth from -2.2 percentage points to -1.8 percentage points.” US housing starts edged up 0.2% in July to a 1,206k pace, the best since October 2007, after rebounding 12.3% to 1,204k in June (revised from 1,174k). But, building permits fell 16.3% to 1,119k, from a revised 7.0% June gain to 1,337k (revised from 1,343k). Single family starts rose 12.8% on the month, with multifamily down 17.0%. Housing completions increased 2.4% to 987k from the 964k June rate (revised from 972k). Headline starts are better than forecast, but permits disappointed a bit, to leave a mixed view on the report in general, but in a vacuum would keep a September rate hike on the table.



Currency Movers Charts

The moves in the FX markets have been rather subdued ahead of FOMC minutes. EUR has been gaining while the USD has been losing ground. We touched upon NZD and milk prices yesterday as there was an expectation that prices of dairy products would rise. Today however, NZD didn’t move higher even on the back of the news that dairy prices moved higher. According to agrimoney.com prices for milk powder rose 19% from two weeks ago, while prices for the anhydrous milk fat soared 27%. This is the first time prices have risen on the GDT since early March, and mark a recover from the previous auction’s 13-year price low and is likely resulting from a supply squeeze. This suggests that the free falling milk prices might have found a bottom and should support the New Zealand economy. However, the currency markets don’t seem believe this story as NZD is down today. Perhaps, the worries about Chinese economy and the Fed rate hike expectations are behind the lack of buying interest. Just recently there has also been some concerted move into the safe haven currency CHF but the changes are still relatively small.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

FX Pair Support Resistance
GBPUSD 1.5563 1.5806
AUDUSD 0.7216 0.7437
USDCAD 1.2950 1.3152
USDJPY 1.2379 1.2528
NZDUSD 0.6470 0.6650

Main Macro Events Today

• Japan All Industry Activity Index came in at 0.3% disappointing slightly as expectation was 0.4%. However, the improvement from previous figure of -0.5% was welcome.

• US CPI: July CPI should reveal a 0.1% (median 0.2%) increase for the headline with the core index up 0.2% (median 0.2%) on the month. After leveling off briefly, oil prices resumed their decline in July which is likely to add downward pressure to the CPI release. This effect showed up in the already released July PPI where we saw a headline increase of 0.2% but which included a 0.6% decline for the energy component in July.

• FOMC Minutes: Key domestic data have generally been good enough to support liftoff on September 17. Indeed, GDP growth should hit at least 3.0% in Q2 and Q3. However, the FOMC isn’t operating in a vacuum and ongoing weakness in commodity prices, the dollar’s strength, and remaining uncertainties over the outlook for China could tip the scales in favor of a delay, especially given the generally dovish leanings of the voting members, led by Yellen and Dudley. We’ll look for clues in the FOMC minutes for the degree to which the various parameters might affect the decision. Tomorrow’s data on July CPI will be of some importance too though it have lost some of its potency given the plunge in commodities.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Janne Muta
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 17th August 2015.

GOLD RALLY HALTED NEAR RESISTANCE.

Gold, Weekly

I pointed out in my previous report that the long term picture stays weak and suggests lower prices for gold. However, I noted that in short term we should see 1080 support holding and market testing the 1130 – 1146 resistance area. If price moves to this resistance area we should monitor price action for potential signs of momentum reversal at levels identified in this report.

Market has since moved roughly as expected with the price of gold moving briefly below the 1080 support. This intraday move was quickly rejected and price closed above the support. This was followed by a sideways move and then a rally that almost reached the lower end of my resistance range last week. The long term weekly picture remains bearish with gold trading near previous support areas. The 23.6% Fibonacci level coincides with the 1130.40 low and therefore suggests increased significance of that level. Other resistance levels are approx. at 1142 and 1160.

Gold, Daily

Gold extended a move to the downside and moved outside the bearish regression channel. Then it took its time after forming a pin bar at support and moved sideways. Now gold has rallied into the the upper Bollinger bands near the first significant resistance level at 1130.40. This level also coincides with a price projection based on the triangle width created by the sideways consolidation.

Stochastics is somewhat overbought and rolling over indicating momentum to the downside should be followed by the recent failure to penetrate the Bollinger Bands. However, the support is fairly close at 1100 to 1103. This support area is roughly the higher end of the sideways move. Therefore the downside move from the current levels might not be that strong or long lived.


Gold, 240 min

Price is moving sideways after breaking below an ascending regression channel. A pivotal high candle low at 1120 limits the upside moves while the nearest 4h support is at 1111.50 coinciding with the lower 4h Bollinger Bands. The upper end of the 1100 to 1103 support area is where 50 period simple moving average is at the time of writing. At the same time Stochastics Oscillator quite correctly suggests that price is trading approx. in the midrange of the recent sideways move. The latest complete 4h bar is a pinbar that indicates lower prices but there has been now follow through.

Conclusion

Even though gold is near the lower end of the long term downward trend channel the proximity of previous support levels (now resistance) suggests that it is hard for the buyers to create a strong rally from here. Price of gold has been a lacklustre performer in the past when the US Fed has been raising rates. This time should be no different unless some external event turns on a need for safe haven buying. Daily time frame rally from a triangle formation failed at the Bollinger Bands where it also reached a price projection target. This suggests the initial thrust to the upside is over as the target has been reached. If the support at 1111.50 breaks we should see gold correcting slightly lower to 1100 – 1103 support area. All in all, the price of gold is in the short term more likely to correct lower than move beyond the 1120 – 1126.30 resistance. Therefore if price moves into this range of resistance I will be looking for sell signals in the lower time frames. Should this take place my targets for the shorts are at 1110 and 1103.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.[COLOR="Silver"]

[HFblogNews]

Date : 14th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 14th August 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

With money continuing to flow into the USD and the GBP, traders continue to bet if the Fed will move to raise rates before the Bank of England. The EURUSD is set to consolidate after a six straight trading day advance from the 1.0850’s with the recent price advance stopping just short of the 1.1220’s resistance levels. Technically, I am expecting the EURUSD to dip towards the 1.1080’s – 1.0980’s as buyers may emerge at those levels before any attempt to test towards the 1.1260’s. The EUR market continues to re-price, at least in the short term, to reflect the diminished GREXIT concerns.

German Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% q/q, a slight acceleration from the 0.3% q/q in Q1, which brought the working day adjusted annual rate to 1.6%, up from 1.1% y/y in the previous quarter. French non-farm payrolls raised 0.2% q/q in Q2, while wage growth slowed to 0.3% from 0.5%. Overall, French unemployment remains high, especially among the under 25s, but this is also due to France’s ongoing structural issues and low growth potential. Greek parliament approves 3rd bailout after an all night debate that showed the strains in Tsipras’ coalition. The vote paves the way for an agreement by Eurozone finance ministers at the Eurogroup meeting this afternoon.

Markets are trading cautiously after a choppy week in the wake of China’s unexpected devaluation of the yuan, but the move has been generally accepted by the markets. Wall Street also shrugged off the ongoing slide in crude oil below $42 for the time being. Firmer U.S. retail sales data was offset somewhat by negative trade price data and an uptick in jobless claims.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The USD is trading lower in cautious trade following a volatile week. The AUD is higher and commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD, as demand for Australian commodities seems to be improving.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Eurozone Jul HICP: inflation confirmed at 0.2% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary reading and the previous month. Prices dropped 0.6% m/m, driven mainly by a renewed decline in energy prices, which were down 0.7% m/m and fell 5.6% y/y. Excluding energy, the annual rate stood at 0.9% y/y in July and core inflation was confirmed at 1.0% y/y, up from 0.8% y/y in June. Even the core rate is considerably below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but the pick up confirms that the risk of a real deflationary spiral is very slim.

• CAD Manufacturing Sales: A swing in aerospace production featured in the May move higher, as activity in the sector rose 22.2% following the 18.0% drop in April. The depreciation in the value of the CAD during June should boost the value of sales and inventories held in U.S. dollars.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full Hot-Forex Economic calendar.

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John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.