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ontact Us. Member of HF Markets Group. my******** � HF Social Login � MT4 WebTerminal ... Company News. About Us; Company News. Company News.

---------- Post added at 03:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:39 PM ----------

What we provide ******** offers various accounts types, trading software and tools ... Whether you're interested in our live webinars or market analysis, want to watch ... FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with ...

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ontact Us. Member of HF Markets Group. my******** � HF Social Login � MT4 WebTerminal ... Company News. About Us; Company News. Company News.

---------- Post added at 03:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:39 PM ----------

What we provide ******** offers various accounts types, trading software and tools ... Whether you're interested in our live webinars or market analysis, want to watch ... FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with ...

---------- Post added at 03:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:39 PM ----------

ontact Us. Member of HF Markets Group. my******** � HF Social Login � MT4 WebTerminal ... Company News. About Us; Company News. Company News.

---------- Post added at 03:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:39 PM ----------

What we provide ******** offers various accounts types, trading software and tools ... Whether you're interested in our live webinars or market analysis, want to watch ... FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with ...

[HFblogNews]

Date : 15th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th JULY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly higher, with Hong Kong stocks reversing declines after Chinese data which showed better than expected new loan growth in the second quarter and a slightly better overall growth number. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are lower, however, and Bund and Gilt futures will have a chance to claw back some of yesterday’s losses. The BoE’s decision to leave rates steady for now may have been somewhat of a disappointment, but the MPC all but announced further easing for August, so there is room for a correction in yields. The European calendar has the final reading of Eurozone HICP inflation for June, which is expected to be confirmed at 0.1% y/y. The headline rate is finally out of negative territory again, but still far below the ECB’s target and still leaving the central bank sufficient room to act again if necessary.

Strong Chinese Data: China’s GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, slightly better than expected, matching the 6.7% pace in Q1. Separately, retail sales grew at a 10.6% y/y pace in June from the 10.0% clip in May. Industrial production improved to a 6.2% y/y pace in June from 6.0%. Overall, China’s growth rate stabilized in Q2, contrary to fears the economy would see a pronounced slowdown. All three key data points were ahead of expectations and has dampened expectations that further stimulus will be required. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1%, USDJPY spiked over 106, and AUDUSD moved up to 0.7675 before declining to 0.7630.

US Data Reports: All beat estimates with a firm round of June PPI gains and another tight initial claims reading through the July 4th holiday, hence confirming both the resilience in U.S. inflation and the tight labor market conditions signaled by the last round of payroll data with a likely July boost from this year’s diminished auto retooling effect. For PPI, we saw a 0.5% June headline rise with a 0.8% surge on the old SA basis, with a firm 0.4% core price rise. For claims, we expect a 6k drop in next week’s July BLS survey week reading back to the 248k cycle-low, following two consecutive tight readings of 254k that leave a lean 254k average thus far on the month.

Fedspeak: Esther George (Kansas City) current level of rates is too low and faster wage growth suggests the labor market is returning to normal, said the hawkish voter. That said, she will be looking at the impact of Brexit, which will be around for a while, along with the flight to quality when assessing any impact on the U.S. economy, seen likely to be modest. This should not come as a surprise, given her past dissents against accommodative policy. Atlanta Fed’s Dennis Lockhart endorsed a “cautious and patient” approach as appropriate given the uncertainty around Brexit and low inflation. Though “not a Lehman moment,” Brexit could weigh on business investment and create an income headwind for years to come, though he sees little immediate impact on the U.S. Lockhart still forecasts 2% U.S. growth and “very brisk” consumer spending. He sees the Fed meeting its policy objectives on inflation and employment in 2017, while already near full employment. Overall this is in line with his centrist reputation, as caution is balanced by optimism. No rush to hike, then, but perhaps he would be on board by year-end.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – June retail sales data is out on Friday and is expected to show that retail sales remained unchanged (median 0.1%) on the month while sales ex-autos rose 0.3% (median 0.4%). Figures for May had headline retail sales up 0.5% with ex-autos up 0.4%. There is downside risk to the release from weaker vehicle sales for the month and continued sluggish growth in chain store sales.

US CPI – June CPI is out today and we expect to see a 0.3% headline (median 0.3%) with the core up 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows May figures that had the headline up 0.2% and the core up 0.2% as well. The June PPI was up 0.5% on the month while export prices rose by 0.8% and import prices by 0.2%.

BOE Carney Speech – Speaking in Toronto about climate change and the financial markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 14th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th JULY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese bourses continuing to benefit from stimulus hopes, while mainland China saw profit taking amid concerns that the market is overbought. Hang Seng and ASX 200 posted modest gains and U.S. and European stock futures are also moving higher. Oil prices are higher on the day, but the front end WTI future is holding below USD 46 per barrel. The focus in Europe will be on the BoE today, which is expected to cut rates by 25 bp today along with dovish guidance, as the bank is eying the fallout from the Brexit vote. The U.K. RICS house price balance, dropped to 10 from 19 highlighting that house prices will be one are that will feel the sting. The European calendar is pretty empty otherwise.

US Data Reports: Fed Beige Book reiterated the economy grew at a “modest” pace over the last six weeks (ending July 1), in line with expectations. The report, prepared by the St Louis Fed, had a slightly more upbeat tone versus recent Beige Books and was generally positive across broad areas of the economy. Consumer spending was generally positive, as was reported in June. However, there are some signs of softening. Labor market conditions remained stable, with employment growth modestly while wage pressures remained modest to moderate. Manufacturing was mixed but generally improved. Real estate continued to strengthen. The natural resources and energy sectors continued weak, however, damping the overall outlook. Price pressures remained slight. Though a tad more optimistic than recent reports, it won’t bring the FOMC off the sidelines at the July 26, 27 policy meeting.

Fedspeak: Kaplan is optimistic on the economy, expecting growth of about 2% after the disappointing 1.1% pace from Q1. Consumer spending should be solid this year, he added. Much of the recent erosion in the labor market he attributes to demographics, with part of it cyclical too. The participation rate is likely to decline further to below 61%, which creates headwinds for GDP, and suggested the only way to bounce back is through immigration. He looks for demand and supply in the oil market to get back into balance in Q1 2017, with prices continuing to firm. He added that the FOMC is very sensitive to the strength of the dollar. Kaplan becomes an FOMC next year.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Rate Announcement Our view matches the strong consensus view for the Old Lady to cut the repo rate by 25bp, which would take it to a record low of 0.25%. This would be the first change in the repo rate since March 2009 and would more than likely be accompanied by dovish guidance, leaving the door open to further cuts and to a restart of the QE programme. The BoE will continue to make cash available for liquidity injections into the banking system.

US Initial Jobless Claims Initial claims data for the week of July 9 is out today and should reveal a headline increase to 265k (median 265k) after a big dip to 254k in the week of July 2nd. Overall, we expect claims to average 262k in July from 265k in June with nonfarm payrolls adding 180k in July after a 287k bounce in June.

U.S. PPI June PPI is also out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline increase with the core up 0.1% (median 0.1%) for the month. This follows stronger figures in May which had the headline up 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. June trade price data has already been released and had import prices up 0.2% for the month with export prices up 0.8%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 13th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th JULY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market recovery continued in Asia overnight, (Nikkei 225 closed up +0.84% at 16,231) but U.S. and U.K. stock futures are heading south, suggesting that it is starting to run out of steam. Oil prices are off highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 46 per barrel, Eased uncertainty about the U.K. as the domestic situation seems more settled and preparations for exit talks can start sooner than previously expected, coupled with hopes of further global stimulus is helping to underpin sentiment, but as GDP bounces back Gilt futures and FTSE 100 have been underperforming, even as the more domestically oriented FTSE 250 is doing better. The European data calendar as final June inflation data from France, Spain and Italy, which should hold any surprises. Eurozone production data for May meanwhile is set to show a sizeable contraction, thus confirming again that overall growth slowed down in the second quarter of the year. Events include the BoE�s credit condition survey, as the MPC starts its two day meeting, with tomorrow�s announcement expected to bring a 25 bp rate cut.

US Data Reports: U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings dropped 345k in May to 5,500k, after rising 175k to 5,845k in April (revised from 5,788k). That left the rate at 3.7% from 3.9%. Hirings also declined 49k to 5,036k, a third consecutive monthly drop (hirings have fallen in four of the five months this year). The rate was steady at 3.5%. Quitters also dipped 14k to 2,895k after the 39k decline in April to 2,909k (revised from 2,912k) and the 7k slip in March. The rate was unchanged at 2.0%. The data are old, especially in light of the recent gyrations in employment. The data seem consistent with some of the weakening trend in the job market this year, though it�s not clear if that is more a function of the economy being near full employment, or an indication of a slowing in the overall economy. Note that Yellen is a fan of the quit rate, and looks for increases in that statistic to suggest a strengthening labor market. So the declines there in recent months may be another reason for her increasingly cautious outlook.

Discount Rate Hike preferred: Six Fed banks favored a discount rate hike by 25 basis points the Fed�s discount rate minutes revealed, with the vote taking place just ahead of the last meeting where rates were held steady following the May jobs miss and Brexit anticipation. A quartet of four had already requested a hike previously, including the KC, Richmond, Cleveland and SF Feds, and they were joined by Boston and St. Louis. The rationale: �expected strengthening in economic activity and their expectations for inflation to ****ually move toward the 2% objective.� This shouldn�t come as a surprise to the bond market, which is already on a bearish tear anyway.

Fedspeak: Bullard: QE gives the Fed some �ammunition� in the event of another downturn, while his new view on rates is closer to what the market is pricing, with low probability of a rate increase. On productivity, he said the poor education system was not to blame in the 1990s, nor today, which could be at its root a demographic shift as older experienced workers retire. The labor force participation rate is continuing to fall for this reason as well. He said that yield curve flattening is not a sign of slowing growth but more likely a flight to safety after the Brexit vote, said the St. Louis Fed president. Talk of further U.S. stimulus is wrong and Fed calls for a better growth (fiscal) policy have been falling on deaf ears. He forecasts continued slowing in job growth in coming months as a normal development, while the ultimate impact of Brexit on the U.S. may be close to nil. Bullard continues to align himself more closely with swings in market sentiment.

Main Macro Events Today

US Import & Export Prices June trade price data is out today and should show import prices up 0.6% (median 0.5%) on the month while export prices grow by 0.3%. This compares to May figures which had import prices up 1.4% and export prices up 1.1%. After a long run of negative figures over the winter the rebound in oil prices is now helping to lift headlines.

BOC Outlook We expect no change in the policy rate, with the current 0.50% setting seen as unaltered in today�s announcement. Recent economic data suggest the Bank could inject more caution in its cautiously optimistic outlook. But lofty June housing starts were a timely reminder that the Bank did highlight housing in the May announcement. A repeat of that announcement�s emphasis on strong regional divergences in housing performance would contrast with a more cautious outlook on growth and inflation. Meanwhile, the robust U.S. jobs report for June suggests growth south of the border is chugging along, supportive of the Bank�s scenario for improving domestic growth in the second half.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.[COLOR="Silver"]

---------- Post added at 02:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:38 PM ----------

Date : 14th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th JULY 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese bourses continuing to benefit from stimulus hopes, while mainland China saw profit taking amid concerns that the market is overbought. Hang Seng and ASX 200 posted modest gains and U.S. and European stock futures are also moving higher. Oil prices are higher on the day, but the front end WTI future is holding below USD 46 per barrel. The focus in Europe will be on the BoE today, which is expected to cut rates by 25 bp today along with dovish guidance, as the bank is eying the fallout from the Brexit vote. The U.K. RICS house price balance, dropped to 10 from 19 highlighting that house prices will be one are that will feel the sting. The European calendar is pretty empty otherwise.

US Data Reports: Fed Beige Book reiterated the economy grew at a “modest” pace over the last six weeks (ending July 1), in line with expectations. The report, prepared by the St Louis Fed, had a slightly more upbeat tone versus recent Beige Books and was generally positive across broad areas of the economy. Consumer spending was generally positive, as was reported in June. However, there are some signs of softening. Labor market conditions remained stable, with employment growth modestly while wage pressures remained modest to moderate. Manufacturing was mixed but generally improved. Real estate continued to strengthen. The natural resources and energy sectors continued weak, however, damping the overall outlook. Price pressures remained slight. Though a tad more optimistic than recent reports, it won’t bring the FOMC off the sidelines at the July 26, 27 policy meeting.

Fedspeak: Kaplan is optimistic on the economy, expecting growth of about 2% after the disappointing 1.1% pace from Q1. Consumer spending should be solid this year, he added. Much of the recent erosion in the labor market he attributes to demographics, with part of it cyclical too. The participation rate is likely to decline further to below 61%, which creates headwinds for GDP, and suggested the only way to bounce back is through immigration. He looks for demand and supply in the oil market to get back into balance in Q1 2017, with prices continuing to firm. He added that the FOMC is very sensitive to the strength of the dollar. Kaplan becomes an FOMC next year.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Rate Announcement Our view matches the strong consensus view for the Old Lady to cut the repo rate by 25bp, which would take it to a record low of 0.25%. This would be the first change in the repo rate since March 2009 and would more than likely be accompanied by dovish guidance, leaving the door open to further cuts and to a restart of the QE programme. The BoE will continue to make cash available for liquidity injections into the banking system.

US Initial Jobless Claims Initial claims data for the week of July 9 is out today and should reveal a headline increase to 265k (median 265k) after a big dip to 254k in the week of July 2nd. Overall, we expect claims to average 262k in July from 265k in June with nonfarm payrolls adding 180k in July after a 287k bounce in June.

U.S. PPI June PPI is also out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline increase with the core up 0.1% (median 0.1%) for the month. This follows stronger figures in May which had the headline up 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. June trade price data has already been released and had import prices up 0.2% for the month with export prices up 0.8%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 12th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th JULY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets in Japan continued to rally, and the Yen weakened as Abe’s election victory cleared the way for more “Abenomics”. Gains in other Asian markets were more modest and while U.S. stock futures are moving higher, FTSE 100 futures are in the red, despite the fact that the BoE is expected to cut rates once again on Thursday. The U.K. may have a new Prime Minister by tomorrow evening and Theresa May, poised to take over from Cameron, could start exit talks earlier than previously thought. So far she hasn’t taken a soft approach and refused to rule out the deportation of EU citizens already working and living in the U.K., which will not go down well in the city. EU finance ministers will meet today and after the Eurogroup yesterday backed the Commission’s recommendations for fines on Spain and Portugal budget overshoots, this is likely to be approved by the Ecofin today. The issue of Italy’s plans to recapitalize Italian banks without bail-ins remains open. The data calendar has German final June inflation at the start of the session, more inflation data from Sweden and Portugal and Irish GDP numbers for Q1. Nothing that would change key central bank outlooks for now. The BoE releases the minutes of the Financial Policy Committee, which was held on June 28, that is after the referendum and may attract more attention than usual if there are more warnings on the possible fallout.

US Data Reports: The stock market got another free pass from prospects of fresh stimulus in Japan following the landslide election of Abe, as investors hoped to collect $200 in “helicopter” money, not go directly to jail or at least get some free parking near historic highs. News that Japan machinery orders plunged and former Fed chief Bernanke was paying a visit to BoJ buddies fueled that speculation and related asset rebalancing. This took some starch out of bonds, gold and the yen, while WTI crude also eased 1%, back under $45. S&P 500, hit fresh record highs at 2,143, The NASDAQ cleared 5,000, and the Dow marked a session high 18,283.

Brexit Aftermath: The uncertainty surrounding the new UK Prime Minister evaporated yesterday as Theresa May became the only candidate, following the withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom. David Cameron will tender his resignation to the Queen on Wednesday after chairing his last Cabinet meeting today. Brexit means Brexit, May has said. The GBP and the FTSE both rallied yesterday with some of the uncertainty over the government, post-Brexit, now out of the way. GBPUSD currently trades significantly north of 1.3000 at 1.3074.

Fedspeak: The Fed’s Esther George welcomed the good news from Friday’s jobs report and said it shows the resilience of the economy. She said consumers are continuing to spend, while household confidence is up. However, business investment has been relatively weak, though it’s been holding up ok outside of the energy and manufacturing sectors. She added that the strong dollar and weaker global growth may hurt exports. Keeping rates too low carries risks, reminded the long-time Fed hawk (and 2016 voter), and said the current level of Fed policy is too soft, in her opinion. There are limits to what monetary policy can achieve, but it’s getting closer to achieving its goals. Core inflation has been firming and the pace of job creation has been noteworthy. But demand for middle-skilled workers has dropped sharply and the recovery has not been evenly spread across the workforce. She thinks that ****ual rate increase will help the FOMC achieve its goals. Though she’s one of the more hawkish on the FOMC, her comments don’t suggest she’ll push for a rate hike as soon as the July 26, 27 FOMC meeting due to Brexit fallout, but she is likely to argue for a hike at the September 20, 21 meeting if the markets are stable and Brexit fears have diminished.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Governor Carney Speaks – Testifies before the Treasury Select Committee about the Bank of England Financial Stability Report. Unlikely to reveal anything particularly new ahead of Thursdays MPC meeting announcement.
JOLTS Job Openings – This data point is a particular favourite FED Chair Mrs. Yellen so will have added interest today in particular following the strong NFP data on Friday. Last month there were 5.79m job openings posted with expectations that his month the number will be slightly lower at 5.74m.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 11th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th JULY 2016.



The Main Macro Events This Week

United States: There’s a flurry of data in the U.S. economic calendar for the second week of July (mostly on Friday) after the markets readily absorbed the rebound in June payrolls that gave the Fed a elbow room on the data front. Starting slowly, May wholesale sales (Tuesday) are forecast to rise 0.8% (median 0.5%), while inventories may rise 0.2% and JOLTS job openings for May are due. Next up, MBA mortgage applications have been on fire in the wake the drop in mortgage rates (Wednesday) and June import prices are seen rising 0.6% as export prices gain 0.3%. EIA energy inventory data last week set crude on a southerly course and will again be closely monitored. The Treasury budget should show a $23 bln surplus in June vs -$52.5 bln deficit in May. PPI for June is set to rise 0.3% (Thursday), or 0.1% core, while initial jobless claims may rebound 9k to 265k. Ironically, the Fed finds itself on the sidelines after Brexit, just as data are starting to show policymakers are closing in on their goals. Price pressures are starting to heat up, with the survey medians showing CPI (all Friday) increases of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, for the June headline and core indexes, in line with our forecasts. Retail sales are expected to be flat, (median rising slightly by 0.1% gain) in the headline and 0.3% rise ex-auto (0.4% median). Empire State may ease to 5.0 in July (median 5.0) from 6.0, with industrial production expected to be unchanged in June (median 0.2%) vs -0.4%; capacity use seen steady at 74.9% (median 75.1%). Michigan sentiment should steady at 93.0 in July (median 93.5) vs 93.5 in June, while business inventories are forecast flat for May (median 0.1%). Fed Beige Book should reiterate modest growth in the economy, which will be the basic outline for the upcoming July 26-27 FOMC meeting. However, it won’t matter much as Brexit and the FX and economic fallout have yet to impact. The June report said activity had been increasing at a moderate pace in most of the 12 Districts, with Chicago and KC noting some slowing. There were modest gains in consumer spending, moderate growth in the service sector, manufacturing activity was mixed, and energy still weak. And though tight labor markets were reported, wages and prices were growing only modestly.

Canada: The Bank of Canada is front and center this week. We expect Wednesday’s announcement and Monetary Policy Report to reveal no change in the current 0.50% rate setting alongside a continuation of the cautiously optimistic growth and inflation outlook. There may be a bit more caution given recent market volatility following the Brexit vote and a run of disappointing data (May trade, June jobs, Q2 Business Outlook Survey). Yet we suspect Governor Poloz will maintain that Canada’s economy remains on track for an eventual return to self-sustaining growth given current very accommodative policy, an expanding U.S. economy and what should be a boost from federal fiscal stimulus. Housing starts (today) are expected to nudge higher a 190.0k unit growth rate in June from the 188.5k clip in May. Manufacturing shipments (Friday) are anticipated to fall 1.0% in May after the 1.0% increase in April. The June Teranet/National Bank housing price index (Wednesday), May new home price index (Thursday) and June Existing home sales (Friday) are also due.

Europe: Data releases this week will be too backward looking to add much to the overall outlook, especially as they are mainly focusing on final Eurozone inflation data for June. German HICP (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% y/y, French (Wednesday) at 0.3% y/y and overall Eurozone HICP (Friday)at 0.1% y/y. Base effects helped headline rates to move out of negative territory in June, but numbers remain very low and would not stand in the way of further easing, if Draghi sees the need. The Eurozone also has production data for May (Wednesday), which is likely to confirm that growth slowed down markedly in the second quarter.

United Kingdom: The UK data calendar is quiet this week. It won’t be until early August that we get the first official data that encompasses conditions after the June 23 referendum. Please see the calendar for further details on this week’s releases.

China: China released June CPI and PPI over the weekend, which came in at 1.9% y/y from 2.0% from the former, and -2.6% y/y from -2.8% for the latter. The soft inflation data may add to concerns over the economy’s growth pace. The June trade surplus (Wednesday) is forecast to have narrowed to $45.0 bln from $50.0 bln in May. The balance of data comes on Friday, with a lot of focus on Q2 GDP, where growth is expected to slow to 6.5% y/y from Q1’s 6.7% outcome. June industrial production is forecast to fall to a 5.8% y/y growth pace, from 6.0% previously. June retail sales are penciled in at 9.8% y/y from 10.0% in May. Such reports could weigh on investor sentiment.

Japan: In Japan, May machine orders (Today) came down hefty 19.9% m/m after dropping 24.7% in April to the lowest level of the year (and -8.2% y/y). June PPI (Tuesday) likely edged up to -4.1% y/y from -4.2%. Revised May industrial production is on tap on (Wednesday) and is seen unchanged at a 1.0% y/y rate.

Australia: In Australia, the calendar is highlighted by employment (Thursday), expected to reveal a 10.0k job gain in June after the 17.9k rise in May. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.8%, up from 5.7% in May. Home loans (today) dropped by -1.0% m/m in May after the 1.4% increase in April (revised down from 1.7%). The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Head of Financial Stability, Luci Ellis, delivers a speech to the Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference, hosted by the University of Sydney (Tuesday). Ellis participates in a panel discussion (Thursday) at the 2016 FMA Asia/Pacific Conference, Sydney.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.[COLOR="Silver"]

---------- Post added at 01:17 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:15 PM ----------

Date : 12th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th JULY 2016.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 4th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th JULY 2016.



THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

United States: US stock and bond markets are closed today for the independence celebrations. There are only two items of note on the abbreviated week’s calendar, the June jobs report (Friday) and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday). But with the much changed landscape following Brexit, and the Fed sidelined for the foreseeable future, there may be limited impact from these reports. The jobs report will be important, however, as we look to gauge whether the weakness in April and May data was more an anomaly or a new trend. The FOMC minutes to the June 14, 15 policy meeting will be of lesser value since the discussions will seem rather irrelevant after the surprise Brexit vote. Other data reports this week include the June ISM non-manufacturing index (Wednesday), May factory orders (Tuesday), May trade (Wednesday), and June ADP payrolls (Thursday). The services ISM is expected to bounce back to 53.5 after slipping 2.8 points to 52.9 in May. Such a rebound would help alleviate worries over general economic slowdown. Factory orders are forecast falling 0.7% given the 2.2% drop already reported in durable orders. The May trade deficit is seen widening to -$40.0 bln, after expanding to -$37.4 bln in April, with imports climbing another 1.3% after the 2.1% April jump, while exports should inch up 0.1% after a 1.5% gain previously. The ADP report, which will set the stage for the BLS jobs report, is expected to post a 165k private payroll increase.

Canada: Slate of economic data in Canada is heavy this week. The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (today) is expected to reveal divergent moves in sentiment among industries. The impact of the Alberta wildfires and production shutdown should weigh heavily on oil industry sentiment. However, the outlook for the rest of the economy should see further modest improvement. The trade report (Wednesday) is seen revealing a slight unwinding of the trade deficit to -A$2.8 bln from -A$2.9 bln in April. Exports are seen falling 3.0% in May, while imports suffer a similar sized decline to leave the deficit little changed. But the risk is to the downside for both the May deficit and the size of the export pull-back. Building permits (Thursday) are expected to improve 1.0% in value terms during May after the 0.3% dip in April. The Ivey PMI (Tuesday) is seen improving to 51.0 in June from 49.4 in May. Finally, the employment report (Friday) is projected to reveal a 10.0k jobs gain alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.0% from 6.9% in May.

Europe: the EMU June Services PMI (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 52.8. The manufacturing reading was revised up, which leaves room for an upward revision to the composite, but while survey data confirmed that the economic recovery gathered pace again at the end of Q2, Markit said with the release of the manufacturing number that responses were gathered ahead of the Brexit result, so that they don’t capture the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU. German manufacturing orders (Wednesday) and industrial production (Thursday) data for May will be even more out of date in light of the recent events. Even if there are sizeable large- ticket items in the orders number that should underpin industrial production going ahead, the risk is that the Brexit referendum will lead to cancellations as investment projects are being put on hold until the future relationship between the rest of the EU and the U.K. is more clear. For what it’s worth, we are looking for a rebound in manufacturing orders of 0.8% m/m (med same), after the -2.0% m/m contraction in the previous month, while production is expected to ease -0.2% m/m (median 0.0%). The data calendar also has Eurozone May retail sales (Tuesday), German trade data for May (Friday), as well as French production numbers (Friday) and EMU PPI (today), none of which will change the outlook, which currently hinges on the Brexit fallout. Events include a German 2-year sale on Wednesday, which will likely see strong demand in the current climate.

United Kingdom: Incoming data will remain largely irrelevant while the numbers continue to pre-date the Brexit vote. The timely YouGov/CEBR consumer confidence survey, which gives weekly updates, gave a taste of what may come, with its headline reading of 104.3 in the days after June 23, down from 111.9 for the first three weeks of June. There is also growing anecdotal evidence of slowing activity in the property market and the market for high ticket items, such as cars. Against this backdrop, it’s difficult to be anything by bearish of sterling, especially against the dollar, which will be natural safe haven refuge from European strife. We expect the pound to see 1.2500 against the dollar before long.

[B]China: June Caixin services PMI (Tuesday) is forecast dipping to 51.0 from 51.2. June fixed investment is due during the week and CPI numbers on Saturday.

Japan: In Japan, the June Nikkei PMI services PMI will be reported (Tuesday). It improved to 50.4 in May from 49.3 previously. May preliminary leading and coincident indices are due (Thursday), followed by June 1st 20-day trade data (Friday). The May current account surplus (Friday) is expected to narrow to JPY 1,800.0 bln from 1,878.5 bln. June bank loan data are also due (Friday).

Australia: In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets (Tuesday) and is expected to maintain the 1.75% setting for the cash rate. The RBA left its official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% in June, as had been widely anticipated. In May, they unexpectedly cut to 1.75% from 2.00% following an unanticipated drop in Q1 inflation. Economic data features the May trade report (Tuesday), expected to reveal a deeper -C$1.8 bln deficit in May from the -A$1.6 bln deficit in April. Retail sales (Tuesday) are seen improving 0.4% in May after the 0.2% gain in April. Building approvals (Monday) are expected to fall 3.0% in May after the 3.0% gain in April. The May ANZ job ads and the May Melbourne Institute inflation index are both due Monday. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle speaks, Wednesday, at the Thomson Reuters industry event: Examining the FX Code of Conduct (Phase One).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 30th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th June 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market recovery continues as the dust settles over the Brexit shock. There hasn�t been any dramatic central bank action so far and we agree with the ECB that this wasn�t a Lehman moment, but it is clear that at the very least monetary policy will and hopes that at least BoE and BoJ will add further stimulus continue to underpin the recovery on global stock markets. Asian stock markets moved broadly higher overnight and U.K. futures are also up, and with Bund futures already heading south in after hour trade yesterday, core European yields are likely to pick up at least in early trade. The U.K. continues to deal with the domestic fallout of the referendum result but data releases may start to move back into focus more amid a busy calendar that includes preliminary EMU HICP, German labour market data, French consumer spending, the Swiss KOF leading indicator and the final reading of U.K. Q1 GDP. The ECB releases the minutes of the last meeting.

US Bank stress tests: Fed reported 30 of 33 CCAR banks passed without conditions. Deutsche Bank and Santander failed once again, as they did in 2015 (Santander also failed in 2014), due to �broad and substantial weaknesses around their capital planning processes.� Morgan Stanley only passed conditionally and will have to resubmit its plan by the end of the year, or else fail. Also, State Street�s and BONY Mellon�s Tier 1 leverage results were only modestly above the 4.0% minimum standard, at a 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively. BMO�s 4.9% result was also rather tenuous, while its 6.4% Tier 1 capital ratio was only marginally above the 6.0% required. The Fed said capital planning at most banks strengthened versus last year, though many banks reportedly fell short of expectations of adequately identifying risk and establishing internal controls. Meanwhile, a number of banks have already announced plans to boost dividends and buyback shares.

Constancio: ECB must �wait a little bit� on any action. The central bank�s vice president said the the ECB still has monetary policy instruments, but seemed to advocate caution for now, even though he stressed that his comments aren�t mean as recommendations, which leaves the final decision to the wider council. Constancio praised the impact of the ECB�s action so far, while adding that the Eurozone no problems in liquidity and that �Greenspan� was wrong� to say Brexit is another Lehman moment, although he warned that there is the risk that banks could resume deleveraging. More indications that the central bank is essentially sticking to its wait and see stance for now.

Atlanta Fed�s Q2 GDPNow estimate was raised to 2.7% in the latest incarnation from 2.6% previously after the personal income report earlier as follows: �The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.7 percent on June 29, up from 2.6 percent on June 24. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent after this morning�s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was partly offset by a decline in the forecast of the second-quarter change in net exports in 2009 dollars from $14 billion to $11 billion after Monday�s advance report on international trade in goods from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Main Macro Events Today

EMU HICP Preliminary June HICP is expected to rise to 0.0% y/y from -0.1% y/y in the previous month, finally lifting the Eurozone�s headline rate out of recession and with the risk to the upside after the clear uptick in German and Spanish HICP rates yesterday. Base effects from oil prices are giving a helping hand, but while the data will likely back the ECB�s wait and see stance, it will be the Brexit fallout that will be decisive for the ECB�s future rate path at the moment. For now central bankers are sitting tight while keeping a close eye on markets, but as the dust settles the ECB may be able to afford to continue to sit on its hands, even though it is clear that in the new European world monetary policy will remain accommodative for longer than previously expected.

Canada GDP We expect April GDP, to rise 0.1% m/m following the 0.2% drop in March. While a return to growth will be welcome news, the widely anticipated plunge in May GDP looms over all the April reports. We see a 0.5% drop in May GDP, driven by the wildfire related shutdown in oil sands production. Real GDP is penciled in for a 1.0% drop in Q2, followed by a 4.0% gain in Q3. The BoC has flagged the projected volatility over Q2 and Q3, while maintaining optimism that growth for the year will be close to what they projected in April.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th June 2016.



Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The narrative turns to the fallout from Brexit in terms of the markets, central banks, and global politics into the second half of the year. The importance of the June jobs has also significantly diminished, though nonfarm payrolls are expected to bounce 195k, making the weakness in the prior two months look like anomalies. The U.S. calendar this week is mercifully tame after all the pandemonium on Friday, starting with the advanced trade report (Monday), the deficit expected to widen to -$59.8 bln for May vs -$57.5 bln year-ago. The highlight will be Q1 GDP (Tuesday), the third edition seen revised up to 1.2% from 0.8% previously. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices are also on tap, along with consumer confidence, seen rising to 93.5 in June vs 92.6, and the Richmond Fed index. The MBA mortgage market indices (Wednesday) could show some sensitivity relative to the plunge in rates Friday. Personal income is expected to rise 0.3% in May vs 0.4%, while spending may be up 0.3% vs 1.0%; core PCE prices rising just 0.1%. Initial jobless claims should rebound 19k to 278k for the June 25 week (Thursday), after a similar plunge the week prior, while Chicago PMI is set to improve to 51.0 in June from 49.3. ISM may ease to 51.0 in June vs 51.3 in May as manufacturing remains sluggish (Friday), while May construction spending may rebound 0.7% from a -1.8% April deficit. Vehicle sales punctuate the week.

Fedspeak, Chair Yellen speaks on Wednesday from Portugal. Three other Fedspeakers are scheduled over the week, including centrist Fed governor Powell who speaks on Tuesday from Chicago. St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard and Cleveland Fed hawk Mester speaks Friday from London.

Canada: All of the domestic action takes place on Thursday, when April GDP and May IPPI will be released. Markets are closed Friday for the Canada Day holiday. We expect April GDP to rise 0.1% m/m following the 0.2% drop in March. The widely anticipated plunge in May GDP looms over all the April reports. We see a 0.5% drop in May GDP, driven by the wildfire related shutdown in oil sands production. Real GDP is penciled in for a 1.0% drop in Q2, followed by a 4.0% gain in Q3. The IPPI is seen rising 0.3% m/m in May after the 0.5% drop in April. The RMPI is expected to jump 5.0% m/m in May as crude oil prices saw a strong gain, following the 0.7% increase in April. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week.

Europe: As markets start to come to terms with the immediate fallout of the U.K.�s decision to leave the EU, politicians and officials are trying to figure out a road-map for a divorce that will not only be costly for both sides, but also very difficult in practical terms. The longer the crisis drags on, the more likely further policy action from the ECB will be needed, especially as the Brexit vote also rekindled Eurozone break up fears and sparked a renewed sharp widening of spreads. What is clear is that forecasts for both growth and inflation will have to be rewritten now and that will mean data releases this week are already outdated. On the slate are preliminary June inflation reports from Germany, France and Spain, which are all expected to show a slight uptick in headline rates. The German HICP is

expected to rise to 0.2% y/y from 0.0% y/y in May. The French HICP rate is seen increasing to 0.3% y/y from 0.1% y/y and together these should lift the overall Eurozone rate to 0.0% y/y from -0.1% y/y and thus out of negative territory for the first time since January. Economic Confidence indicator will be outdated even before it is released; we are looking for an unchanged reading of 104.7.

UK: Four things to know: 1, the UK will remain a paid-up member of the EU for at least another couple of years; 2, there is a possibility that the UK will lose Scotland; 3, uncertainty will abound for the foreseeable; 4, the UK will more than likely lose its triple A credit rating.

Overall, this historical-watershed period will not good be for business and investment decision making. We look for sterling to remain pressured, seeing potential for 1.2000 versus the dollar and at least another 10% decline in trade-weighted terms. UK stocks are likely to be susceptible to periodic crashes in the weeks ahead, particularly those of the more domestically-focused businesses.

China: June PMIs headline at the end of the week. The Caixin/Markit index (Friday) is expected to dip to 49.0 after edging up to 49.2 in May from April�s 48.9. It�s been in contractionary over the past three months and will add to the worrisome tone if it falters deeper into negative territory. The official CFLP is seen slipping to 50.0 from 50.1 in April and May and has been on a decidedly slowing growth path since mid-2011. The non-manufacturing PMI report is also on tap.

Japan: May retail sales (Wednesday). The pace of contraction for large retailers is expected to slow to -0.5% y/y from -1.0%, while overall sales are seen worsening to -2.0% y/y from a revised -0.9% overall. May industrial production (Thursday) is seen rebounding 1.0% m/m from -3.3% previously, while May housing starts (Thursday) are penciled in with a 5.0% m/m increase after jumping 9.0% previously. May construction orders are also due (Thursday). The remainder of the calendar comes on Friday, beginning with CPI figures. June Tokyo overall CPI is seen steady at -0.5% y/y, and unchanged at -0.5% on a core basis. May national CPI is expected to tick down further to -0.4% y/y from -0.3% for both headline and core readings. May unemployment should be unchanged at 3.2%. The job offers/seekers ratio is penciled in at an unchanged 1.34. May personal income is expected to contract at a -0.5% y/y clip from the prior 1.0% gain, while May PCE is forecast to fall 2.0% y/y from -0.4% in April. The June Tankan report is predicted to slip to 5 from 6 for large manufacturers, and to 20 from 22 for large non-manufacturers. June consumer confidence is seen weakening to 40.5 from 40.9. June auto sales are also on deck. Data in line with our estimates would add to the general gloom and worries over growth, especially in the aftermath of Brexit.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia schedule is empty of speakers or events. The next Bank event is the July 5th meeting, where we expect no change in the 1.75% setting for the cash rate. The RBA left its official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% in June, as had been widely anticipated. Recall that the central bank unexpectedly cut rates in May to 1.75% from 2.00% following an unanticipated drop in Q1 inflation. Economic data is in short supply this week, with just the May HIA new home price index (Wednesday) and May private sector credit (Thursday) on the docket.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 16th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th June 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: The recovery in stock markets didn�t last long and markets headed south again in Asia overnight, with U.S. and U.K. stock futures also under pressure. Fed and BoJ kept policy on hold and while this was largely expected, there were some lingering hopes that at least the BoJ would add further stimulus but with the statement maybe a tad less dovish than expected, the Yen strengthened and Japanese equities sold off, with the Nikkei down -2.98%. The Hang Seng is down -2.20%. The focus now shifts to BoE and SNB meetings today. Again no changes are expected, but with Brexit risks looming the tone of the statements will be watched carefully. Event risks continue to overshadow data releases, which today include U.K. retail sales and the final reading of Eurozone May HICP numbers.

The FOMC left the funds rate unchanged: The Fed again did not define a �balance of risks� and didn�t give any clear indication of the timing of the next hike, though it still expects two more this year. �Growth in economic activity appears to have picked up,� said the statement, but the �pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed.� This contradiction was the opposite in the previous statement, though it also noted that household spending has improved and the drag from net exports has lessened, while business investment has been soft. The Fed again indicated that inflation is running below target. There was no dissent this time from Esther George, (long time hawk), compounding the more dovish interpretation. Likewise, the dot-plot was significantly lowered, growth outlook trimmed and inflation outlook tweaked just slightly higher despite the rebound in energy prices. FOMC forecast revisions released with the policy statement show surprisingly large downward revisions in the official GDP forecasts for 2016, followed by downward bumps across the forecast horizon, leaving a distribution of 2016 Fed estimates that lie almost entirely below our own 2.2% forecast.

BOJ: The Bank of Japan refrained from expanding monetary stimulus as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his board continues to gauge the economic impact of their unpopular negative-rate policy ahead of an election next month. With the uncertain outlook for global markets also giving reason for pause, the BOJ held its key interest rate at minus 0.1 percent and kept the annual target for expanding the monetary base at 80 trillion yen ($764 billion). Dollar and GBP weakness and yen strength continued following the announcement USDJPY traded as low at 104.04 and GBPJPY as low as the 147.30.

US data reports: Revealed a welcome June Empire State bounce to 6.0 that reversed the May plunge to -9.0, though industrial production underperformed in May with a 0.4% drop led by a 7.0% drop in the vehicle assembly rate to an 11.4 mln clip. The vehicle sector pullback explains May weakness in other payroll and sentiment data, and a likely vehicle sector rebound into the shifting summer retooling period should support a June factory sector bounce as seen with Empire State. We also saw a 0.4% May PPI rise with a firm 0.3% core price increase, as US inflation measures continue to document both a rebound in commodity prices and a firm 2016 core price path.

Main Macro Events Today

Swiss National Bank The official view from SNB remains that prolonged period of low interest rates carries risk for global financial stability. Rates are currently -0.75% and no change is expected. Prolonged period of low interest rates carries risk for global financial stability. The SNB�s baseline scenario assumes that economic conditions for the Swiss banking sector improve. Economic growth picks up moderately in the euro area, but unemployment remains high in many member states. In the US, growth remains robust. Growth in China slows further and some major emerging markets remain in recession. In Switzerland, the recovery continues and unemployment begins to decline slowly after peaking in the second half of 2016.

UK Interest Rate decision No change expected UK rates with a week to the UK Referendum on membership of the EU. CPI has been under pressure and there is a very low probability of interest rate hikes before 1Q 2017. The press conference is always of interest.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.