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  1. #381
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    FOREX NEWS: EURO BOOSTED BY ‘TOO WEAK’ COMMENTS, POUND STILL ON THE FENCE


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The Euro got another boost yesterday, this time from Germany’s Merkel, who mentioned that she considers the currency “too weak”. The comment sent the pair higher, rebounding around 1.1170 and moving past 1.1240 resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    Although the current move up is overextended, the Euro found new strength in Chancellor Merkel’s comments and now the resistance at 1.1240 is in danger. The overall picture remains bullish and the next target is located at 1.1340 if 1.1240 can be decisively broken. However, it is highly likely to see a bearish retracement before the pair can reach that zone. Bearish divergence is still present (price is making higher highs and the Relative Strength Index is making lower highs), thus increasing the chances of a pullback.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day’s highlight is the release of the German IFO Business Climate, scheduled at 8:00 am GMT. This is a survey with a very large sample size of about 7,000 German businesses, focused on the respondents’ view on current business conditions as well as a 6-month outlook. The forecasted value is 113.1 and usually the Euro is strengthened by a higher than expected number but the impact of this indicator is not very high.


    GBP/USD

    The pair dipped below support, in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but soon after, it climbed back to where the market opened. Overall yesterday’s session lacked substantial developments or a clear bias.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair showed rejection near the 50 period EMA but also failed to move past 1.3050 again. These are indications that control doesn’t clearly belong to either side for the moment, although from a longer term perspective the pair is still in an uptrend. Today’s price direction will be mostly determined by Governor Carney’s testimony and the technical side will be secondary. The levels to watch remain 1.3050 followed by 1.3090 to the upside and the 50 period EMA to the downside.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:00 am GMT the Inflation Report Hearings take place. During these hearings, BOE Governor Mark Carney and several MPC members will testify before the Parliament's Treasury Committee on inflation and economic outlook. The Pound can be strongly affected by the testimony but the impact cannot be accurately predicted, thus caution is recommended.
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  3. #382
    Member GDMFX is an unknown quantity at this point GDMFX's Avatar
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS MINOR SIGNS OF RECOVERY. FOMC MEETING MINUTES EYED


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey released yesterday posted a better than expected value but this didn’t help the Euro to push higher, mostly because the pair was already overbought for a long period.



    Technical Outlook

    The uptrend failed to break 1.1240 for the time being, although the pair climbed briefly above this resistance. In the short term it’s very likely to see a move into 1.1170, followed possibly by an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Overall the pair is in a clear uptrend but it is also under bearish pressure.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 12:45 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the First Conference on Financial Stability, organized in Madrid by the Bank of Spain. The speech may have an impact on the Euro and volatility may be affected, so caution is recommended.

    On the US Dollar side we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes, scheduled for release at 6:00 pm GMT. The document contains details of the reasons behind the latest interest rate decision but more importantly, it can contain hints about future monetary policy. If this is the case, the US Dollar will be strongly affected so, as always, we recommend caution.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound slipped lower yesterday but movement was choppy and lacked a strong bias. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was touched but offered good support and pushed the pair higher.



    Technical Outlook

    The failure to break the 50 period EMA to the downside shows that the pair is not yet ready for a strong move south but on the other hand, the bulls also lack clear determination. It looks like the pair is still trapped in a range, but with a slightly bullish bias as long as it remains above the 50 period EMA. To the upside 1.3050 is still the first target and a strong resistance.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will not be affected by any major economic indicators today but the pair’s direction will be influenced by the contents of the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
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